SportsRatings: College Basketball

After Game 2: Spurs start to dig out; Oklahoma City now in good shape

Tonight's games are all of the 2-0 series, where the expected winner has a 2-0 lead while switching to the road site. None of these teams appears to be in any trouble (Chicago has already won to go ahead 3-0).

The rest of the series are more interesting. Three series are tied 1-1 after home upsets in game one. Last article we decided the Spurs were in trouble while the Lakers and Magic should rebound. Does it still look this way?

The Lakers and Magic are on much firmer footing than a few days ago. Not because of how they won, but just because they won. A win in the bag is worth a lot when projecting a series; basically they erased the doubt about game 2, and avoided a 0-2 hole. Our predictions of recovery remain.

San Antonio looked to be in deep trouble after falling into an 0-1 hole. They were favored to win game 2, but there was doubt, and by winning it they've increased their series odds in our eyes. Is it enough?

Depends on how you look at it. Manu Ginobli was back; if you think his absence was crucial in Memphis' win, then the Grizzlies have a lot to worry about. But he didn't shoot well, so his effectiveness down the line is questionable (of course, if he does shoot well, that further harms Memphis). It was still a close game all the way, ending 93-87 in the Spurs' favor.

Just looking at our projections purely by the numbers, San Antonio increased their odds of winning the series from a shockingly low 20% to a still-poor 28%. As the venue changes to Memphis for games three and four, the Grizzlies have a huge advantage by our method (using only games of the last few months to predict more upset-potential).

All the Spurs have to do, though, is steal one game in Memphis and they become the favorite again. The Grizzlies are our #2 home team, behind Denver, for the period sampled.

Speaking of Denver, they've fallen in an 0-2 hole; first due to bad officiating, and then due to bad play. The second game was poor enough to harm their road rating, so while they're still favored big at home they are more of an underdog on the road than they were when the series started.

Worse, of course, is losing two games. To win in six as we initially predicted they'd have to sweep the next four: three home wins and one on the road. To win at all, they need a road win; initially that meant winning one out of four games; there are only two opportunities left.

Though it's not out of the question that the Nuggets could win the next four games, or four out of five, the odds are now against them for the series. With two in the bag, Oklahoma City looks like a 66% favorite. In other words, our surprise pick to squeek by each series and win it all is now a 2-1 underdog in the very first round.

That's what you get for going against the grain. If Denver does ultimately fall, we'll re-calculate among the remaining teams, meaning we'll be joining the "Heat or Threepeat" bandwagon, or perhaps taking Chicago to win instead in a minor upset. No Butler in the NBA finals this year, it would seem.

NBA Playoffs Round One: Spurs, Lakers, or Magic - Who is in the most trouble after Game 1 loss?

The opening games of the first round of the NBA playoffs featured a number of close games, and more importantly, a few big surprises as the #1 and #2 seeds in the West both lost at home on Sunday. San Antonio fell to Memphis 101-98 while New Orleans handled Los Angeles, 109-100.

In addition, the 4th seed in the East, Orlando, lost at home to Atlanta 103-93 despite Dwight Howard's amazing 46 points and 19 rebounds.

What does this mean, by our prediction method, for the favorites that lost?

San Antonio vs. Memphis

The Spurs were without Manu Ginobli, who probably could have played and might have been "saved" for the more important later rounds. Greg Popavich might have to bring him back early, as losing another home game would be disastrous.

And even if he returns immediately, the Spurs could be in trouble. We only had San Antonio as a 52% favorite in this series, mostly due to Memphis' very strong home court play since the all-star break. But what saved things for the Spurs was the home court advantage. With that home court advantage gone, the Spurs have to steal one back from the Grizzlies at some point, which won't be easy.

Verdict: The Spurs blew it; they needed to hold the home court edge. Now it appears that Memphis will win out at home and win it in 6. Our numbers have Memphis an amazing 80% favorite for the series. This of course can't factor in San Antonio's often clutch playoff performance, and the Grizzlies complete lack of playoff experience, something that could yet save the Spurs. That, or Ginobli's heroic return.

Los Angeles vs. New Orleans

Los Angeles fell victim to a Hornets team that committed only three turnovers, something that's unlikely to happen again. Pau Gasol ought to contribute more than 8 points next game, too. Meanwhile Chris Paul had a career night with 33 points, 14 assists, and 7 rebounds. Kobe Bryant had 34 along with a highlight-reel injury late in the first half but was okay after halftime.

As long as Kobe is fine, so should be the Lakers despite dropping the first game. It will just take a bit longer than we expected at first. The road games are still tossups and this one loss doesn't dent the Lakers as strong favorites at home.

Verdict: Instead of Lakers in 5, it could take them the full seven. Their % chance of winning the series fell from 88% to 62%. Not an auspicious start to defending a title, but it looks like there isn't going to be a team with an easy first round this year.

Orlando vs. Atlanta

Orlando is clearly a better team than Atlanta, but after losing game 1 at home, are the Magic in trouble? If they can't win with Howard scoring 46, are they doomed?

Perhaps they should hope he scores less. That's the argument at There's A Stat For That, who shows that when Howard is responsible for the lion's share of the Magic offense, Orlando loses more often. If Atlanta has found a way to clog Orlando's offense by making Howard its only contributor (though Jameer Nelson had 27, with 78.5% of their scoring between two players) then some adjustments will have to be made.

Verdict: The Magic should shake off this loss and win, though it's looking like a very close series now. Orlando drops from an 82% favorite to just 56%, and it's more likely to take the full seven games. Orlando is still a slight favorite in Atlanta, so stealing one there would close it out earlier. But that assumes they have a counter for the Hawks' defensive strategy, which worked incredibly well on everyone except Howard and Nelson.

Other series

The favorite won the first game in every other series, though it wasn't easy for anyone. Chicago needed a rally to beat Indiana 104-99; Miami held off a late Philly rally to win 97-89; Dallas beat Portland 89-81; and Boston edged New York 87-85.

Our adopted favorite, Denver, lost 107-103, a result that was expected despite our picking the Nuggets to win the series and possibly the league title. Oklahoma City was a 59% and 3.4 point favorite in its home games, so Denver didn't underperform with the loss. But they missed an opportunity to steal the road win they'll need to win the series. Thus is the conundrum of cumulative odds; game by game, Oklahoma City wins 4-3 due to home court advantage. But with Denver's larger home court advantage, their likelihood of winning the overall series was about 2/3.

Has it changed with this outcome? Denver needed to win 1 of 4 road games and hold at home. Now they have to win 1 of 3 remaining road games. The Nuggets' overall odds of winning the series fell to 54% now that the Thunder lead 1-0. In other words, our comparison method still expects the Nuggets (in the most likely scenario) to win one in Oklahoma City somewhere along the way while winning all three home games. The closeness of the series' odds implies a 7-game win, but the road win could come at any time, making a 6-game series just as realistic.

2011 NBA Playoff Preview; Denver is our surprise champion pick

The NBA Playoffs start any second now, so here's our belated preview.

Chicago finished with the league's best record, and San Antonio in the West isn't far behind. But most are favoring either of the two #2 seeds: Los Angeles and Kobe Bryant to threepeat, or Miami's superduo of Lebron James and Dwayne Wade to come alive and win it all. Almost all the smart money is on one of these four teams, but we ended up going off the beaten track. Here's how.

To make our projections, we looked at only at the teams recent play (post all-star break). This accomplishes three goals:

1. Removes the effects of all the early-to-mid-season trades, which shake up a lot of teams;
2. Focuses on how the teams are playing in the last few months, not in November;
3. Makes for a more interesting set of predictions than using the full-season, which favors the top seeds too much. This way, hopefully there are some interesting upset picks.

Another thing we did is separate home and road team performance in our power ratings. Since the NBA playoffs are all about home court advantage game by game, we treat home and road components of the same team as completely different squads.

Here are the top 20 home teams in our power rating since February 22:

num  Team                    record    rating
1.  Denver                    11-1     15.85
2.  Memphis                   11-3     11.72
3.  Dallas                     8-4     10.91
4.  LA Lakers                 12-2     10.01
5.  Miami                     10-6      9.91
6.  Chicago                   11-1      8.70
7.  Portland                  11-4      8.63
8.  San Antonio               11-3      8.21
9.  Boston                     8-3      7.12
10. Orlando                    8-4      7.03
11. Oklahoma                  11-3      6.73
12. Houston                   10-3      6.62
13. Golden St                  7-4      5.88
14. Philadephia                9-6      3.64
15. New Orleans                8-5      3.42
16. Milwaukee                  9-6      2.92
17. New York                   8-6      1.51
18. Indiana                    9-5      1.38
19. LA Clippers                7-4      0.83
20. Atlanta                    7-8      0.10

A few surprises there, in that Denver and Memphis are playing the best at home recently, with top seeds Chicago and San Antonio at #6 and #8, and 2-seeds Miami and L.A. at #5 and #4.

And the top 20 road teams (plus playoff team Indiana) since the all-star break:

 1. Chicago                   13-3      6.68
 2. LA Lakers                  8-3      4.98
 3. Oklahoma                   8-6      4.49
 4. Denver                     7-6      3.43
 5. Houston                    7-5      3.23
 6. Orlando                    8-5      1.68
 7. Miami                      7-3      1.56
 8. Dallas                     9-5      1.03
 9. San Antonio                4-8      0.59
10. Portland                   5-6     -0.81
11. New York                   6-8     -0.85
12. Philadephia                5-6     -0.91
13. Phoenix                    6-10    -1.70
14. Boston                     8-9     -1.86
15. Memphis                    4-7     -3.53
16. Sacramento                 7-10    -3.69
17. Milwaukee                  5-7     -5.13
18. New Orleans                5-6     -5.42
19. LA Clippers                4-11    -5.61
20. Atlanta                    3-9     -6.65
25. Indiana                    4-10    -8.41

Note that the home ratings (naturally) are higher than the road team ratings. Chicago is the best road team lately, with the Lakers high, too. Miami and 4-8 San Antonio are less stellar, even with the Heat going 7-3.

Now for the first round previews (and beyond):

East

(1) Chicago (62-20; home #5, road #1) vs. (8) Indiana (37-45; home #18, road #25): Because Chicago has been playing so well on the road lately, Indiana doesn't even have much of a chance in the home games.

Chicago in 5; 94% chance to win series, 30% chance of sweep.

(4) Orlando (52-30; home #10, road #6) vs. (5) Atlanta (44-38; home #20, road #20): Though a 4 vs. 5 seed should be close, it's not because this is pretty much the dividing line between the good and bad teams in the East. With a big edge at home and about a 50/50 chance on the road, Orlando should advance.

Orlando in 6; 82% chance to win series, 16% chance of sweep.

(3) Boston (56-26; home #9, road #14) vs. (6) New York (42-40; home #17, road #11): The Celtics have a bigger edge at home and get the last game at home, which could be the difference.

Boston in 7; 67% chance to win series, 8% chance of sweep.

(2) Miami (58-24; home #5, road #7) vs. (7) Philadelphia (41-41; home #14, road #12): A big home edge and narrow road edge make the Heat a prohibitive favorite, regardless of their unpredictable play.

Miami in 6; 78% chance to win series, 14% chance of sweep.

Rest of the way in the East: The top seeds should win their 2nd round series fairly easily, with Chicago meeting Miami in the Eastern finals. If the Heat had taken care of business late in the season they'd have garnered the top seed and stand a much better chance of being in the finals. Of course it depends on how LeBron, Wade, and co. respond during the playoff season, but I have Chicago advancing to the NBA finals.

West

(1) San Antonio (61-21; home #8, road #9) vs. (8) Memphis (46-36; home #2, road #15): This is the strangest pairing; with Memphis powerful at home lately, it's enough to give the top seed Spurs big trouble if both teams' post-All-Star break play continues. But the Spurs have the home court edge for the series and might need it.

San Antonio in 7; 52% chance to win series, 2% chance of sweep.

(4) Oklahoma City (55-27; home #11, road #3) vs. (5) Denver (50-32; home #1, road #4): This almost looks like the championship series. Denver is the recent-play #1 at home and Oklahoma City is the #3 road team. In the end Denver should win all their home games and win one on the road to get the upset.

Denver in 6; 67% chance to win series, 11% chance of sweep

(3) Dallas (57-25; home #3, road #8) vs. (6) Portland (48-34; home #7, road #10): This is a pretty even 3 vs. 6, but the Mavericks are a bit better overall and given the series home advantage that's enough. Both teams might hold service on their home courts and take it to 7 games.

Dallas in 7; 62% chance to win series, 4% chance of sweep

(2) Los Angeles Lakers (57-25; home #4, road #2) vs. (7) New Orleans (46-36; home #15, road #18): As the #2 seed, the Lakers got a break when fading New Orleans got the 7-seed instead of Memphis. The games in New Orleans should be close, but not the ones in L.A.

Los Angeles in 5; 88% chance of winning, 17% chance of sweep.

Rest of the way in the West: The big news could be Denver. If they keep playing at home like they have been, it's going to be hard for any team to steal a game there. The problem is, as a 5-seed, they won't have the extra home game for any series. They have a great chance to stun the Spurs, who haven't been playing all that great lately despite having the league's best record (of course, they have a habit of stepping it up during the playoffs). But our projection has Denver facing the Lakers in the West final, with Denver again dominating at home. They just have to manage one win in Los Angeles out of four games and they'll win it in 6 or 7. Of course, winning in 7 requires taking the last game in LA so they'd better win one of the 1st three road games.

NBA Finals: Chicago vs. Denver

This should be a lot like Denver's (hypothetical) series against the Lakers. They should have a big enough home advantage to win the games there, and they've got a good enough shot in Chicago to win a game at some point. At game 6 there's about a 50/50 chance they close out the series, but if not it goes back to Chicago for game 7, making a Denver championship a less likely scenario. But with a 40% chance of winning on the road, they should be able to win one of the 1st 3 road games. Denver is our (very) surprise pick for the NBA championship.

Brackets:

1 Chicago -----94%
               |--Chicago-73%
8 Indiana -----6%         |
                          |--Chicago-54%
4 Orlando -----82%        |          |
               |--Orlando-27%        |
5 Atlanta -----18%                   |
                                     |--Chicago--38%
3 Boston  -----67%                   |           |
               |--Boston--28%        |           |
6 New York-----33%        |          |           |
                          |--Miami---46%         |
2 Miami   -----78%        |                      |
               |--Miami---72%                    |
7 Philly  -----22%                               |
                                                 |-----Denver
1 San Antonio -52%                               |
               |--San Ant-26%                    |
8 Memphis -----48%        |                      |
                          |--Denver--60%         |
4 OK City -----33%        |          |           |
               |--Denver--74%        |           |
5 Denver  -----67%                   |           |
                                     |--Denver---62%
3 Dallas  -----62%                   |
               |--Dallas--33%        |
6 Portland ----38%        |          |
                          |--Lakers--40%
2 LA Lakers ---88%        |
               |--Lakers--67%
7 New Orleans -12%     

It ends up that Denver is our only upset pick, period; everything else goes purely by the seeds. That shows how important home court advantage is. The top seeds would be expected to win a full neutral court series; giving them an extra home game makes the odds hard to overcome.

How realistic is a Denver championship run? Most would say, not very at all. And despite the power rating numbers, considering who they'd have to go through (San Antonio, LA Lakers, and Chicago/Miami) it's hard to disagree with that assessment. But it's a lot more interesting going out on a limb than picking from the top seeds. If Denver falls in the first round to Oklahoma City, we'll have to choose from among the four favorites like everyone else. Go Nuggets—make it interesting!

UConn beats Butler 53-41; best 11-game run in NCAA history?

Connecticut used a strong second half to defeat an ice-cold shooting Butler team, 53-41 to win the national championship for the 3rd time in 14 years. The Bulldogs finished as runner-up for the 2nd year in a row.

Kemba Walker was the star as usual, scoring 16 points. Alex Oriakhi was a major factor, too, with 11 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 blocked shots. UConn had 10 blocks total as Butler shot a horrific 18.8% for the night.

Combined with their 5-games-in-5-days Big East title, the Huskies might have pulled off the best 11-game run in NCAA history. Has any team ever defeated so many highly-ranked teams in such a short time? Let's look at what they did, using NCAA tournament seeds as our yardstick:


UConn's 11-game win streak: Best ever?

    Team            Score   Seed
  Big East tournament
W = DePaul          97-71    --
W = Georgetown      79-62     6
W = Pittsburgh      76-74     1
W = Syracuse        76-71OT   3
W = Louisville      69-66     4
  NCAA tournament
W = Bucknell        81-52    14
W = Cincinnati      69-58     6
W @ San Diego St.   74-67     2
W = Arizona         65-53     5
W = Kentucky        56-55     4
W = Butler          53-41     8

Many teams have won the tournament in more impressive fashion, and many have had much harder roads to the championship. UConn didn't have to face any #1 seeds along the way and beat a #8 seed for the title. But the Big East tournament title is what makes it hard to believe there's a better season-ending finish. In five days they won five games, and beat a #1 seed, a #3 seed, a #4 seed, and a #6 seed. So even before the NCAA tournament they'd done more than they had to do to reach the Final Four.

In their last ten wins, they beat a #1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, and 8 seed. That's 9 teams that were seeded in the upper half of the NCAA tournament, and they beat them over a span of 27 days, winning every game on a neutral court (with the San Diego State game essentially a road game).

And this from a team that struggled mid-season, going 4-7 at one stretch.

It's doubtful anyone will bring up this 9-loss Connecticut team as a candidate for the best in NCAA history—in fact they're probably 3rd best among the Huskies' recent tournament champions. But in terms of accomplishments late in the season, this is one to remember. They won a 5-day tournament in the best conference in the country then followed it up with a national title; you can't ask for much more than that.

 

2011 National Championship Game Preview, Odds, and Prediction: (3) Connecticut vs. (8) Butler

Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 3
Record: 31-9
Conference: Big East

vs.

Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 28-9
Conference: Horizon

Date: Monday, April 4
Time: 9:23 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
 

 

Connecticut is on one of the great late-season runs in NCAA history; Butler has made an amazing run to the finals two years in a row.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Connecticut                        Butler

Power Ratings

Strength:      #15                 Strength:      #40
Neutral court: #15                 Neutral court: #39
Consistency:   #144                Consistency:   #304

Tempo-free:    #14                 Tempo-free:    #40
Offense:       #17                 Offense:       #35
Defense:       #22                 Defense:       #66

Recent Play

2nd half of season: #8             2nd half of season: #39
NCAA Tournament:    #1             NCAA Tournament:    #19

Season overview: Connecticut (31-9)

01 W Stony Brook     79-52   15 W Rutgers         67-53   29 L@West Virginia   65-56
02 W Vermont         89-73   16 W@DePaul          82-62   30 L Notre Dame      70-67
03 W=Wichita St.     83-79   17 W Villanova       61-59   31 W=DePaul          97-71
04 W=Michigan St.    70-67   18 W Tennessee       72-61   32 W=Georgetown      79-62
05 W=Kentucky        84-67   19 W@Marquette       76-68   33 W=Pittsburgh      76-74
06 W New Hampshire   62-55   20 L Louisville     79-78OT2 34 W=Syracuse       76-71OT
07 W MD Baltimore Ct 94-61   21 L Syracuse        66-58   35 W=Louisville      69-66
08 W Fair. Dickinson 78-54   22 W Seton Hall      61-59   36 W=Bucknell        81-52
09 W Coppin St.      76-64   23 L@St. John's      89-72   37 W=Cincinnati      69-58
10 W Harvard         81-52   24 W Providence      75-57   38 W@San Diego St.   74-67
11 L@Pittsburgh      78-63   25 W Georgetown      78-70   39 W=Arizona         65-53
12 W South Florida   66-61OT 26 L@Louisville      71-58   40 W=Kentucky        56-55
13 L@Notre Dame      73-70   27 L Marquette       74+67OT
14 W@Texas           82-81OT 28 W@Cincinnati      67-59  

• Wins vs. tournament teams (17): =Michigan St.+3, =Kentucky+17, @Texas+OT, Villanova+2, Tennessee+11, @Marquette+8, Georgetown+8, @Cincinnati+8, =Georgetown+17, =Pittsburgh+2, =Syracuse+OT, =Louisville+3, =Bucknell+29, =Cincinnati+11, @San Diego St.+7, =Arizona+2, =Kentucky+1
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (5): =Kentucky+17, @Marquette+8, @San Diego St. +7, =Arizona+2, =Kentucky+1
  
• Wins vs. Final Four teams (2): =Kentucky+17, =Kentucky+1
  
• Losses to tournament teams (9): @Pittsburgh-15, @Notre Dame-3, Louisville-OT, Syracuse-8, @St. John's-17, @Louisville-13, Marquette-OT, @West Virginia-9, Notre Dame-3
• Other losses (0):none

Key Info: When Connecticut completed its sweep of 5 games in 5 days to win the Big East tournament, some asked the question: Was this harder than winning the NCAA tournament? It's a fair question, too. UConn beat Depaul, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville; the last four got a 6, 1, 3, and 4 seed, so if we give DePaul a 14, that's the path a 3-seed might take winning in the Round of 64, 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four. So UConn essentially made it to the NCAA finals in 5 days, then did the real thing over the course of the next two weeks.

Much of the credit can go to Kemba Walker, a Player of the Year candidate who stepped it up big in the conference tournament, averaging 26 points per game over the stretch. How far UConn goes is largely up to him; it's dangerous for a team but also rewarding to rely on one star player so much, but the Huskies have other talent obviously. It's just that Walker's star shines so much brighter you might not see them. Walker led with 18 against Bucknell, 33 against Cincinnati, 36 vs. San Diego State, 20 against Arizona, and 18 against Kentucky. If he leads the Huskies to win Monday, some will argue he is UConn's best player ever.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Butler (28-9)

01 W Marian          83-54   14 W Valparaiso      76-59   27 W Detroit         66-51
02 L@Louisville      88-73   15 L@Wisc. Milwaukee 76-52   28 W@Wisc. Green Bay 64-62
03 W Ball St.        88-55   16 W Cleveland St.   79-56   29 W@Ill. Chicago    79-52
04 W@Siena           70-57   17 W Youngstown St.  84-79   30 W Loyola Chicago  63-56
05 L Evansville      71-68OT 18 W@Detroit         87-64   31 W=Cleveland St.   76-68
06 W@Loyola Chicago  65-63   19 L@Wright St.      69-64   32 W Wisc. Milwaukee 59-44
07 L=Duke            82-70   20 W Wisc. Green Bay 81-75   33 W=Old Dominion    60-58
08 L@Xavier          51-49   21 L Wisc. Milwaukee 86-80OT 34 W=Pittsburgh      71-70
09 W Miss. Valley    91-71   22 L@Valparaiso      85-79OT 35 W=Wisconsin       61-54
10 W Stanford        83-50   23 L@Youngstown St.  62-60   36 W=Florida        74-71OT
11 W=Utah            74-62   24 W@Cleveland St.   73-61   37 W=VCU             70-62
12 W=Florida St.     67-64   25 W Ill. Chicago    72-65  
13 W=Washington St.  84-68   26 W Wright St.      71-63  

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): =Florida St.+3, =Old Dominion+2, =Pittsburgh+1, =Wisconsin+7, =Florida+OT, =Virginia Commonwealth+8
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (4): =Florida St.+3, =Wisconsin+7, =Florida+OT, =Virginia Commonwealth+8
• Wins vs. Final Four teams (1): =Virginia Commonwealth+8
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Louisville-15, =Duke-12, @Xavier-2
• Other losses (6): Evansville-OT, @Wisconsin Milwaukee-24, @Wright St.-5, Wisconsin Milwaukee-OT, @Valparaiso-OT, @Youngstown St.-2

Key Info: Looking at Butler's year, the early season had more peaks, the middle had some problems, and the later season—up to their Elite Eight run—has been better again. Another interesting stat is their Consistency rank of #316; we've been doubting the Bulldogs can return to the title game this year, but we've also said that if their variance is on the upside they could upset some better teams. Pitt, Wisconsin, and Florida found that out. They beat lower-seeded VCU, and now they take on Connecticut.

The team is clearly not as good as last year's model, mainly for the loss of Gordon Hayward, but that didn't matter—the Bulldogs willed their way to the finals, just like they did last season. Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have been just as good as they were on the Bulldogs' NCAA runner-up squad; Mack had 30 against Pitt, and Howard had 20 points and 12 rebounds against Wisconsin. In the Florida and VCU wins Mack had 27 and 24.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both teams are on incredible runs. That's a given for the NCAA tournament finalists, of course; every team is guaranteed to be on at least a 5-game winning streak. But these teams are special.

Connecticut got a spark during the Big East tournament were they won 5 games in 5 days over NCAA tournament-level competition, and that run has extended all the way to the tournament finals. Butler is on a 14-game winning streak that's more impressive given that they did the same thing last year. Making the finals once is hard enough, but to do it in back-to-back years—both times with teams that had no business being past the Sweet Sixteen—makes you think there is something to teams that just "know how to win" in the tournament.

Vegas Line:

UConn by  3 1/2

Power rating spread

        All games   Last 5 games   10 games   14 games
UConn by  4.5            7.1       7.7        6.3

% Chance to win

Butler:       38% 
UConn:        62%

Connecticut, being the better team on paper, is the favorite. In all time periods tested—full season, tournament play, during UConn's win streak, and during Butler's—the Huskies test out ahead. Vegas gives Butler some credit for their remarkable tourney performance the last few years.

Bottom line: One team's magic will end, the other will see it go all the way.

During the tournament's history there have been three teams that have gone from runner-up one year to winner the next: 81-82 North Carolina; 90-91 Duke; and 97-98 Kentucky. Three teams have finished as runner-up twice in a row: Ohio State in '61 and '62; Houston in '83 and '84; and Michigan in '91 and '92. Which will happen to Butler?

I think Butler is most similar to Houston in '83 and '84; not in terms of personnel, as there isn't much comparison between the Bulldogs and Phi Slamma Jamma; but in terms of the change the team went through from one year to the next. Houston lost Clyde Drexler and wasn't nearly as good of a team but still made it back to the finals. It was as if their previous year's experience gave them the "right" to make it that far. Butler's loss of Gordon Hayward is similar for the Bulldogs, yet they're back in the finals.

Butler could easily have hit that last-second shot against Duke and be aiming to be a repeat champion. But I think they'll be a repeat runner-up, as Kemba Walker and UConn attempt to complete one of the great season-closeouts in history.

Final prediction: Connecticut 69, Butler 65