SportsRatings: College Basketball

2011 NCAA Tournament Final Four Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (8) Butler vs. (11) VCU

Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 27-9
Conference: Horizon

vs.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Seed: 11
Record: 28-11
Conference: Colonial Athletic

Date: Saturday, April 2
Time: 6:09 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX 

 

 

Does Butler count as a Cinderella team, since they went to the Final Four last year? As an 11-seed that had to play into the tournament, VCU certainly does.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Butler                             Virginia Commonwealth

Power Ratings

Strength:      #41                 Strength:      #66
Neutral court: #41                 Neutral court: #64
Consistency:   #316                Consistency:   #317

Tempo-free:    #40                 Tempo-free:    #63
Offense:       #33                 Offense:       #45
Defense:       #64                 Defense:       #66

Recent Play

2nd half of season: #41            2nd half of season: #50
NCAA Tournament:    #17            NCAA Tournament:    #1
 

 

Season overview: Butler (27-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =Florida St.+3, =Old Dominion+2, =Pittsburgh+1, =Wisconsin+7, =Florida+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): =Florida St.+3, =Wisconsin+7, =Florida+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Louisville-15, =Duke-12, @Xavier-2
• Other losses (6): Evansville-OT, @Wisconsin Milwaukee-24, @Wright St.-5, Wisconsin Milwaukee-OT, @Valparaiso-OT, @Youngstown St.-2

Key Info: Looking at Butler's year, the early season had more peaks, the middle had some problems, and the later season—up to their Elite Eight run—has been better again. Another interesting stat is their Consistency rank of #316; we've been doubting the Bulldogs can return to the title game this year, but we've also said that if their variance is on the upside they could upset some better teams. Pitt, Wisconsin, and Florida found that out. Now they face a lower-seeded team; will they be the upset victim?

The team is clearly not as good as last year's model, mainly for the loss of Gordon Hayward, but that hasn't mattered in the tournament so far. Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have been just as good as they were on the Bulldogs' NCAA runner-up squad; Mack had 30 against Pitt, and Howard had 20 points and 12 rebounds against Wisconsin. In the Florida win Mack had 27.

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Season overview: Virginia Commonwealth (28-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): =UCLA+4, Wofford+9, @Old Dominion+9, George Mason+16, =Southern California+13, =Georgetown+18, @Purdue+18, =Florida St.+OT, =Kansas+10
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): =Florida St.+OT, =Kansas+10
• Wins vs. Final Four teams (0): none
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Tennessee-5, @Richmond-12, @UAB-3, Old Dominion-11, George Mason-20, Old Dominion-5
• Other losses (5): @South Florida-OT, @Georgia St.-10, @Northeastern-11, @Drexel-4, James Madison-3

Key Info: VCU isn't really like the 2008 Davidson team that lost to Kansas in the Elite Eight. They're more like the 2006 George Mason team that went to the Final Four by beating #1 seed UConn. Both are from the Colonial Athletic conference, and both were 11 seeds. While Davidson beat a #2 and a #3 seed to reach the Elite Eight, George Mason beat a #3 and a #7 while VCU beat a #3 and a #10. But while George Mason met 2-seed Florida in the Final Four, VCU is facing 8-seed Butler, making the game potentially much more competitive.

On offense four Rams average double figures; Jamie Skeen had 16 against USC and Joey Rodriguez had 17 against the Hoyas. Six players were in double figures against Purdue, with Rodriguez dishing out 11 assists. Bradford Burgess has been on a tear lately, scoring 23 against Purdue and 26 against Florida State. Skeen was huge against the Gators with 27.

             **************************************************************

Game Analysis: Performance vs. experience. That's what this game comes down to.

The performance edge goes to VCU. During tournament play, VCU has rated 10 points better than Butler; the Rams rank #1 in our power rating for the tournament, while the Bulldogs are a respectable but not Final Four worthy #17.

Butler has been here though, and just last year, and that could make a difference. Despite not being as good as last year's team, or playing as well during the tournament as last year's team, they've made it almost as far, and a win would match last season's success. If nerves are going to affect one team or the other, it isn't going to be Butler.

Vegas Line:

Butler  by  2 1/2

Power rating spread

Butler  by  3.4    

% Chance to win

VCU:          40% 
Butler:       60% 

The oddsmakers are taking more of a whole-season viewpoint by installing the Bulldogs as the favorite. They rank 3.4 points better when considering all games, and the spread of 2 1/2 is a slight adjustment that gives a nod to Virginia Commonwealth's incredible recent performance. Butler's 60% win chance is also predicated on the full season.

As we mentioned, if the teams play like they have during the tournament, VCU should be a double-digit favorite. The question is, will that level of play continue, or regress to the mean, or revert to the mean?

Bottom line: Will VCU continue to play like the best team in the country? Nothing in their pre-tournament performance suggested they could do what they did. They hardly played a single game as good as any of their five tournament wins. Even during the best part of their season—a nine-game winning streak—they were above average at best. Anyone who picked VCU in their Final Four did so on a hunch or gut feeling, not any rational data.

VCU's success can largely be attributed to incredible 3-point shooting; they shot 48% against Kansas and Georgetown and 46% against FSU, dipping to 38% only for Purdue and USC. Will they have two more great shooting games or will an off-night finally catch up to them?

Butler is doing what they have to do to win, and nothing more. They've won by 2, 1, 7, and 3 in overtime, while VCU has won by double-digit margins 4 out of 5 times. Butler beat Florida despite shooting only 27% of 3s. They shot 28% against Wisconsin and 27% against Old Dominion, and 44% against Pitt.

So far I'm 1-8 in predicting these two teams' tournament games, 1-4 for VCU and 0-4 for Butler. Neither passed my first-round brackets and VCU didn't even make the Round of 64. I became a believer in picking VCU over FSU but didn't believe enough to take them over Kansas. Meanwhile I had the Bulldogs losing every step of the way, though every time I acknowledged Butler's ability to get an upset, and very nearly took them against Florida.

VCU's 3-point shooting can't get much better and Butler's can't get worse. Assuming the Rams cool down a touch and Butler steps it up a bit, the Bulldogs can win this game. If VCU had shown a glimmer of this kind of success during the season I'd believe they could continue it for two more games, but they didn't.

Basically we have two magical teams in the Final Four: VCU, who is playing so far above their season average it defies explanation, and Butler, who is beating teams far better than they should, for the second tournament in a row. One team's magic has to disappear on Saturday, and I haven't picked Butler to win a game this tournament, so it's about time.

Final prediction: Butler 70, VCU 67
 

2011 NCAA Tournament Final Four Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (3) Connecticut vs. (4) Kentucky

Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 3
Record: 30-9
Conference: Big East

vs.

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 4
Record: 29-8
Conference: SEC

Date: Saturday, April 2 
Time: 8:49 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
 

 

Connecticut and Kentucky form the non-Cinderella portion of the Final Four, both having won multiple titles in the last 20 years.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Connecticut                        Kentucky

Power Ratings

Strength:      #15                 Strength:      #6
Neutral court: #15                 Neutral court: #6
Consistency:   #153                Consistency:   #113

Tempo-free:    #14                 Tempo-free:    #5
Offense:       #17                 Offense:       #8
Defense:       #28                 Defense:       #18

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #10            2nd half of season: #8
NCAA Tournament:    #2             NCAA Tournament:    #7

Season overview: Connecticut (30-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (16): =Michigan St.+3, =Kentucky+17, @Texas+OT, Villanova+2, Tennessee+11, @Marquette+8, Georgetown+8, @Cincinnati+8, =Georgetown+17, =Pittsburgh+2, =Syracuse+OT, =Louisville+3, =Bucknell+29, =Cincinnati+11, @San Diego St.+7, =Arizona+2
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (4): =Kentucky+17, @Marquette+8, @San Diego St. +7, =Arizona+2
• Wins vs. Final Four teams (1): =Kentucky+17
  
• Losses to tournament teams (9): @Pittsburgh-15, @Notre Dame-3, Louisville-OT, Syracuse-8, @St. John's-17, @Louisville-13, Marquette-OT, @West Virginia-9, Notre Dame-3
• Other losses (0):none

Key Info: When Connecticut completed its sweep of 5 games in 5 days to win the Big East tournament, some asked the question: Was this harder than winning the NCAA tournament? It's a fair question, too. UConn beat Depaul, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville; the last four got a 6, 1, 3, and 4 seed, so if we give DePaul a 14, that's the path a 3-seed might take winning in the Round of 64, 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four. So UConn essentially made it to the NCAA finals in 5 days. Now they're showing they can repeat the feat, or at least come very close.

Much of the credit can go to Kemba Walker, a Player of the Year candidate who stepped it up big in the conference tournament, averaging 26 points per game over the stretch. How far UConn goes is largely up to him; it's dangerous for a team but also rewarding to rely on one star player so much, but the Huskies have other talent obviously. It's just that Walker's star shines so much brighter you might not see them. Walker led with 18 against Bucknell, 33 against Cincinnati, 36 vs. San Diego State, and 20 against Arizona.

UConn beat Kentucky early this season (game 5, November 24) in the finals of the Maui Invitational. Though it was a long time ago, a 17-point win on a neutral court has some significance.

             **************************************************************
 

Season overview: Kentucky (29-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (14): =Washington+7, Boston University+34, Notre Dame+14, @Louisville+15, Georgia+6, Tennessee+12, Florida+8, Vanderbilt+2, @Tennessee+6, =Florida+16, =Princeton+2, =West Virginia+8, =Ohio St.+2, =North Carolina+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): Florida+8, =Florida+16, =Ohio St.+2
• Wins vs. Final Four teams (0): none
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =Connecticut-17, @North Carolina-2, @Georgia-7, @Florida-2, @Vanderbilt-4
• Other losses (3): @Alabama-2, @Mississippi-2, @Arkansas-OT

Key Info: As we've been saying since the first weekend's game reviews, Kentucky is one of the better 4-seeds you'll ever find, and they've proved it by making the Final Four. They're good enough to be a 2-seed according to our power ratings, and if their performance dipped in a mid-season slump, it picked back up as they won their last six games to take the SEC tournament crown. It's fair to say it dipped again against 13-seed Princeton, whom the Wildcats escaped by just 2 points, but the next three wins—over West Virginia, Ohio State, and North Carolina—reaffirmed their solid play.

What they have accomplished is all the more impressive when you consider what they lost from last year's #1 seed team. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson were among five (5!) Wildcats taken in the first round. But as he usually does, John Calipari recruited replacements and set about forming another star-studded team; this year freshmen Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb are the team's leading scorers. Knight scored 30 points in the win over West Virginia, and against Ohio State senior big man Josh Harrellson led with 17 despite going up against Jared Sullinger. Five players were in double figures against the Tar Heels.

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Game Analysis: When UConn and UK met early this season in the Maui Invitational finals, it was the Huskies' best game of the season and the Wildcats' worst. That's probably not going to happen again. Moreover, the Wildcats are full of freshmen who were playing in just their fifth game at the time.

Looking back on the season, Kentucky is the better team by almost every measure. They outrank UConn in the Strength Power Rating, whether or not tempo is considered. They're better on both offense and defense. They're better for the full season or just the 2nd half of the season. The one timeframe where UConn beats them is recent play.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by  2

Power rating spread

Kentucky by  2.8

% Chance to win

Kentucky:           58% 
Connecticut:        42%

Kentucky is a slight favorite following their wins over Ohio State and North Carolina, which are bigger, better names that UConn just beat (San Diego State and Arizona). The power rating number is for the full season; UConn's 17-point win is diluted when you consider the other 35+ games each team has played. The Wildcats win nearly 58% of game comparisons, too, even though their one previous meeting alone gives UConn about 5 percentage points.

But in very recent play—just in the NCAA tournament—Connecticut has been stronger, by almost 6 points. But a four-game span isn't much to go by.

Bottom line: When reviewing UK vs. UNC, I noted that their previous meeting—which the Tar Heels won—was not relevant, since they won by 2 points at home. UConn and Kentucky's previous meeting was a 17-point win for the Huskies on a neutral court, so it does carry some weight. That weight is diminished by the November date and the Wildcats' inexperience at the time, but it can't be dismissed.

UConn isn't going to win again by 17 points; Kentucky has played much better since then, while UConn has had its lean moments. But not since the Big East tournament. UConn's 9-game run—winning the Big East in 5 games and reaching the Final Four with four more wins—is amazing. Kentucky has also won its last 9 games. Over that stretch, UConn is 3.6 points better; I think Connecticut's streak will continue.

Final prediction: Connecticut 71, Kentucky 68
 

2011 NCAA Tournament Performance by Conference at Final Four

At the Final Four mark, the Colonial Athletic and the Horizon have as many teams left as the Big East and the SEC, and more than the Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, at Pac-10 combined.

The Big East, though maligned for losing 9 of its 11 teams by the Sweet Sixteen, has 11 wins and has a team in the Final Four, more than four of the other "major" conference can boast. At this point, even as the Big East underperformed in the tournament, no other conference can claim to have done better.

The SEC takes over 2nd place, though, passing the ACC and Big Ten. Only two teams made it to the Round of 32, but both of those teams made the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. Flordia was an overtime period away from giving the SEC two Final Four teams, a surprise for a conference that was held in low esteem all year. It just goes to show that conferences are made up of teams, and teams can't be defined by their conference.

The Colonial Athletic passes both the Big 12 and Pac-10 as VCU continues their amazing run. Both the other conferences had three in the Round of 32 but after that it was Kansas and Arizona joining the Rams in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. Arizona lost and VCU beat Kansas and now the CAA wins the tiebreaker—and that's without counting VCU's "play-in" win.

Tournament Performance: Here are the standings, color-coded in ROY G. BIV fashion (minus the R). 1 point for each game won in the tournament (play-in games don't count):

         Round of 32  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final Four  Title Game  Champion

Big East             7            2   1  1    (UConn)   
SEC          2     2     2   1     (Kentucky)   
ACC           3        3     1                
Big Ten           5         2                
Col. Ath     2   1  1  1   (VCU)
Big 12        3     1  1        
Pac-10        3     1  1            
Horiz.     1  1  1  1    (Butler)         
Mt West      2     2       
Atl 10       2   1    
WCC        1     
Ohio Val   1             

The Horizon moves past the Mountain West as Butler makes the Final Four for the 2nd straight year. The Horizon's one strong team advanced two places further than the Mountain West's two strong teams. Another Butler win could put the League into 4th place.

Conference Performance for 2010-2011 season, measured by tournament bids + tournament wins. This metric creates more division between the conferences and reflects overall strength better for the full year.

Teams in tourney  Round of 32  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final Four  Title Game  Champion

Big East                11                            7            2   1  1    
Big Ten               7                5         2              
SEC              5          2     2     2   1        
ACC            4          3        3     1            
Big 12           5           3     1  1          
Pac-10         4          3     1  1           
Col. Ath      3       2   1  1  1         
Mt West       3       2     2     
Atl 10        3       2   1     
Horiz.    *1* 1  1  1  1               
WCC       *1* 1     
Ohio Val  *1* 1       
C-USA        2       

The major conferences dominate this ranking: the Big East has an insurmountable lead here, too, while  Big Ten is still in second place. The SEC moves into third with the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-10 4th through 6th.

The CAA is the first non-major, easily ahead of the Mountain West and Atlantic 10; they could move as high as 5th place. The Horizon, currently 10th, could move into 8th, but their single-bid status hurts them (as it should in this type of ranking).

2011 NCAA Tournament Performance by Conference at Elite Eight

At the Elite Eight mark, the Big East has just one team left, and the Big Ten is out altogether. But those two still have the most wins in the tournament of any conference.

The Big East, much maligned for losing 9 of its 11 teams by the Sweet Sixteen, has 10 wins overall and UConn is still alive in the Elite Eight. And this is using the more "fair" accounting, where the number of teams in the tournament doesn't count for anything, just wins.

The ACC wins the tiebreaker for 2nd place over the Big Ten as North Carolina advanced to the Elite Eight also. The Big Ten falls into third place—and could go lower—as Ohio State and Wisconsin both lost.

The conference with the most teams alive? Surprise, it's the SEC. Kentucky and Florida both beat well-respected foes to advance, too, so it's no fluke.

Here are the standings, color-coded in ROY G. BIV fashion (minus the R). 1 point for each game won in the tournament (play-in games don't count):

         Round of 32  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final Four  Title Game  Champion

Big East             7            2   1     
ACC           3        3     1                
Big Ten           5         2                
SEC          2     2     2     
Big 12        3     1  1        
Pac-10        3     1  1            
Col. Ath     2   1  1 
Mt West      2     2       
Horiz.     1  1  1                                    
Atl 10       2   1    
WCC        1     
Ohio Val   1             

Fifth place goes to both the Big 12 (Kansas) and Pac-10 (Arizona), while the Colonial Athletic (VCU) actually moves ahead of the Mountain West, whose two big teams both lost after making the Sweet Sixteen.

The only other conference of note is the Horizon. Butler was their only team in the field and is still alive.

Using a different accounting method and including points for bids, the 11-bid Big East is so far ahead it isn't interesting. This is more useful if you want to capture the strength of the conferences over the entire season with the tournament as 'icing', rather than focusing on tournament performance alone.

Teams in tourney  Round of 32  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final Four  Title Game  Champion

Big East                11                            7            2   1     
Big Ten               7                5         2              
SEC              5          2     2     2         
ACC            4          3        3     1                       
Big 12           5           3     1  1          
Pac-10         4          3     1  1           
Col. Ath      3       2   1  1     
Mt West       3       2     2     
Atl 10        3       2   1     
Horiz.    *1* 1  1  1                                       
WCC       *1* 1     
Ohio Val  *1* 1       
C-USA        2       

The Big Ten is still a strong second place by this method, with the SEC third and ACC fourth. Close behind are the Big 12 and Pac-10. The CAA still inches past the Mountain West, while the Horizon is far behind due to being a 1-bid conference.

2011 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Kansas vs. (11) VCU

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 35-2
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Seed: 11
Record: 27-11
Conference: Colonial Athletic

Date: Sunday, March 27
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Location: San Antonio, TX 
Region: Southwest

 

Kansas' path the the Final Four: a 16-seed, a 9-seed, a 12-seed, and now an 11-seed. No team has ever had an easier path. Not that VCU is your typical 11-seed.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Kansas                             Virginia Commonwealth

Power Ratings

Strength:      #3                  Strength:      #75
Neutral court: #3                  Neutral court: #71
Consistency:   #284                Consistency:   #298

Tempo-free:    #3                  Tempo-free:    #69
Offense:       #6                  Offense:       #48
Defense:       #6                  Defense:       #111

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #2             2nd half of season: #62
Last 6 games:       #9             Last 6 games:       #4

 

Season overview: Kansas (35-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =Arizona+8, UCLA+1, =Memphis+13, Southern California+2, @Michigan+OT, Kansas St.+24, Missouri+17, Texas A&M+13, @Missouri+4, Texas+12, =Boston University+19, =Illinois+14, =Richmond+20
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): =Arizona+8, =Richmond+20
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): Texas-11, @Kansas St.-16
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Kansas has only defeated two Sweet Sixteen teams, though Arizona did make the Elite Eight by beating Duke. We mentioned their easy Final Four path: 16-seed Boston, 9-seed Illinois, 12-seed Richmond, and now 11-seed VCU. Coupled with their schedule bereft of top-notch teams, does that hurt them if they play in the Final Four? Probably not. This team is following almost the exact trajectory of their 2008 national champion team.

In 2008, going into their Elite Eight game against Davidson, Kansas was 34-3 (compared to 35-2 this year) and also had just two wins over Sweet Sixteen opponents. Their path that year to the Final Four? A 16-seed, an 8-seed, a 12-seed, and 10-seed Davidson. And Davidson was no normal 10-seed, just like VCU is not your average 11-seed.

The Morris twins—Morris and Markieff—lead the Jayhawks in scoring and rebounding at 17.3/7.2 and 13.6/8.2 apiece. Guards Tyrel Reed and Tyshawn Taylor contribute outside play. The Morris twins combined for 31 against Boston U. and 41 against Illinois—with 12 rebounds each. Brady Morningstar led with 18 in the Richmond walkover.

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Season overview: Virginia Commonwealth (27-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): =UCLA+4, Wofford+9, @Old Dominion+9, George Mason+16, =Southern California+13, =Georgetown+18, @Purdue+18, =Florida St.+OT
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Florida St.+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Tennessee-5, @Richmond-12, @UAB-3, Old Dominion-11, George Mason-20, Old Dominion-5
• Other losses (5): @South Florida-OT, @Georgia St.-10, @Northeastern-11, @Drexel-4, James Madison-3

Key Info: VCU isn't really like the 2008 Davidson team that lost to Kansas in the Elite Eight. They're more like the 2006 George Mason team that went to the Final Four by beating #1 seed UConn. Both are from the Colonial Athletic conference, and both were 11 seeds. While Davidson beat a #2 and a #3 seed to reach the Elite Eight, George Mason beat a #3 and a #7 while VCU beat a #3 and a #10.

On offense four Rams average double figures; Jamie Skeen had 16 against USC and Joey Rodriguez had 17 against the Hoyas. Six players were in double figures against Purdue, with Rodriguez dishing out 11 assists. Bradford Burgess has been on a tear lately, scoring 23 against Purdue and 26 against Florida State.

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Game Analysis: Some think this could be another blowout like Kansas-Richmond was in the Sweet Sixteen. Certainly VCU's rating is low enough that they could regress and lose by a mountain. But past comparisons suggest a very close game.

First there's Kansas-Davidson. This year's Kansas is very much like 2008's model, and Davidson was a surprise 10-seed. Kansas won that game by just 2 points, 59-57. George Mason was a surprise 11-seed from the CAA that beat #1 seed UConn in overtime to reach the Final Four. While Kansas' comparison to their 2008 team is fair, VCU just isn't as good as either that Davidson team or the George Mason team from 2006.

But for very recent play, VCU does rank as one of the best teams in the nation. Over the last four games, the Rams rank #1, and Kansas #2, with less than a point separating them.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by  11

Power rating spread

Kansas by  15.1

% Chance to win

Kansas:      84% 
VCU:         16% 

The power rating spread of 15+ is derived from the entire season's body of work, in which VCU is a mediocre team. Using all of each teams' games, Kansas wins 84% of comparisons, too, so normally this wouldn't be a close one. However, the trick lies in how much to overcount VCU's recent play. The oddsmakers give them about 4 extra points for their effort during the tournament.

Bottom line: If VCU is really the Davidson or George Mason of this tournament, it should be a lot closer. How much closer? Probably about 8 points closer to either the oddsmakers' spread or our power rating estimate.

UConn was an 8 point favorite over George Mason, and Kansas a 10 point favorite over Davidson, both by the oddsmakers and the Strength Power Rating. The UConn-GM game went into overtime, while Kansas won by 2 points. So both games were about 8 points closer than expected.

If that happens here, then Kansas will win by anywhere from 3 to 7 points. Split the difference and it's a 5-point game, which both gives credit to VCU for their excellent recent play, while acknowledging that overall they don't rate nearly as high as their Cinderella predecessors.

Final prediction: Kansas 79, Virginia Commonwealth 74
 

2011 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (2) North Carolina vs. (4) Kentucky

North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 2
Record: 29-7
Conference: ACC

vs.

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 4
Record: 28-8
Conference: SEC

Date: Sunday, March 27
Time: 5:05 pm Eastern
Location: Newark, NJ 
Region: East

 

Pretty shocking, right? Seeing North Carolina and Kentucky in the Elite Eight...

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     North Carolina                     Kentucky

Power Ratings

Strength:      #13                 Strength:      #7
Neutral court: #13                 Neutral court: #7
Consistency:   #320                Consistency:   #131

Tempo-free:    #15                 Tempo-free:    #7
Offense:       #46                 Offense:       #8
Defense:       #5                  Defense:       #20

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #11            2nd half of season: #10
Last 6 games:       #31            Last 6 games:       #8    

 

Season overview: North Carolina (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (11): NC Asheville+11, Kentucky+2, Clemson+10, Florida St.+20, @Clemson+2, @Florida St.+2, Duke+14, Clemson+OT, Long Island+15, Washington+3, =Marquette+18
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (5): Kentucky+2, Florida St.+20, @Florida St.+2, Duke+14, =Marquette+18
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =Vanderbilt-7, @Illinois-12, Texas-2, @Duke-6, =Duke-17
• Other losses (2): =Minnesota-5, @Georgia Tech-20

Key Info: Interestingly, North Carolina has more wins against the Sweet Sixteen than any other Sweet Sixteen team; they beat Kentucky in the pre-conference season, then beat FSU twice and Duke once. The previous Kentucky win was at home, of course.

North Carolina's play in the ACC tournament—and even in the first two games of the NCAA—was less than inspiring. They finally put it all together start to finish against Marquette, taking a 40-15 halftime lead and coasting to win by 18. Newswire stories emphasized North Carolina's defensive effort as if it were something unusual, but the Tar Heels rank in the top five in defensive efficiency (points allowed per possession). Ty Zeller had 27 points and 15 rebounds, and Harrison Barnes added 20.

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Season overview: Kentucky (28-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): =Washington+7, Boston University+34, Notre Dame+14, @Louisville+15, Georgia+6, Tennessee+12, Florida+8, Vanderbilt+2, @Tennessee+6, =Florida+16, =Princeton+2, =West Virginia+8, =Ohio St.+2
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): Florida+8, =Florida+16, =Ohio St.+2
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =Connecticut-17, @North Carolina-2, @Georgia-7, @Florida-2, @Vanderbilt-4
• Other losses (3): @Alabama-2, @Mississippi-2, @Arkansas-OT

Key Info: As we've been saying since the first weekend's game reviews, Kentucky is one of the better 4-seeds you'll ever find, and they're proving it. They're good enough to be a 2-seed according to our power ratings, and if their performance dipped in a mid-season slump, it picked back up as they won their last six games to take the SEC tournament crown. It's fair to say it dipped again against 13-seed Princeton, whom the Wildcats escaped by just 2 points, but the West Virginia win was back to form, and beating Ohio State pretty much proved they were underseeded.

What they have accomplished is all the more impressive when you consider what they lost from last year's #1 seed team. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson were among five (5!) Wildcats taken in the first round. But as he usually does, John Calipari recruited replacements and set about forming another star-studded team; this year freshmen Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb are the team's leading scorers. Knight scored 30 points in the win over West Virginia, and against Ohio State senior big man Josh Harrellson led with 17 despite going up against Jared Sullinger.

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Game Analysis: Which is more impressive, destroying Marquette or simply getting a win over Ohio State? It's close, but I'd take an 18 point win over the Golden Eagles, especially considering the 40-15 halftime lead. However that halftime lead demonstrates that Friday night's UNC win was at least as much due to Marquette as it was to the Tar Heels. Marquette had been alternating between great performances and terrible ones, and it hit another terrible one against North Carolina. On the other hand, I give fully credit to Kentucky for beating Ohio State, regardless of how bad the Buckeyes shot (and much of that was due to Kentucky's defense, too).

And speaking of bad performances, North Carolina has been less-than-great in five of its last six games—particularly in the ACC tournament—whereas Kentucky has been solid five of its last six games. That's why UK is #8 over the last six, while UNC is just #31 despite making it to the Elite Eight. In NCAA tournament play (last 3 games) North Carolina ranks ahead, since that's where their best game and Kentucky's worst occurred.

Ty Zeller is coming off a 27-point game for North Carolina and he had 27 against Kentucky when the teams met in December. That 2-point UNC win was over three months ago and took place in Chapel Hill, however.

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by  1

Power rating spread

Kentucky by  1.6  
 

% Chance to win

UNC:        44% 
Kentucky:   56%

Some might be surprised to see Kentucky favored as a 4-seed facing a 2-seed, but they've been highly-rated in power ratings all season. 1.5 was the early consensus among the sportsbooks, then the line dropped to 1, all of which of course means the game could go either way in the last minutes. Our game-comparison system gives Kentucky just over 56% of the wins. Again, could go either way, which is typical for Elite Eight games and beyond.

Bottom Line: North Carolina played a great game against Marquette. But they only have that kind of game about once every five or six contests. Can they have two great efforts in a row? We haven't seen it all year. Well, once—but that was against Rutgers and St. Francis, PA, not Kentucky. The first Kentucky game was a 2-point UNC win that doesn't tell us anything.

For all the time-period comparisons possible, I think using all of each team's games makes for the best estimate. North Carolina is normally a good team but has an occasional great game; Kentucky is a slightly better team but occasionally underperforms. I think this time they get the 2 point win on the neutral court.

Final prediction: Kentucky 74, North Carolina 72
 

2011 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (3) Connecticut vs. (5) Arizona

Connecticut Huskies
Seed: 3
Record: 29-9
Conference: Big East

vs.

Arizona Wildcats
Seed: 5
Record: 30-7
Conference: Pac-10

Date: Saturday, March 26
Time: 7:05 pm Eastern
Location: Anaheim, CA 
Region: West

 

Connecticut keeps rolling, and Arizona hits a new high. It's Kemba Walker vs. Derrick Williams on Saturday for a Final Four berth.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Connecticut                        Arizona

Power Ratings

Strength:      #16                 Strength:      #20
Neutral court: #15                 Neutral court: #21
Consistency:   #155                Consistency:   #135

Tempo-free:    #16                 Tempo-free:    #20
Offense:       #17                 Offense:       #13
Defense:       #29                 Defense:       #57

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #9             2nd half of season: #29
Last 6 games:       #2             Last 6 games:       #14

Season overview: Connecticut (29-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (15): =Michigan St.+3, =Kentucky+17, @Texas+OT, Villanova+2, Tennessee+11, @Marquette+8, Georgetown+8, @Cincinnati+8, =Georgetown+17, =Pittsburgh+2, =Syracuse+OT, =Louisville+3, =Bucknell+29, =Cincinnati+11, @San Diego St.+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): =Kentucky+17, @Marquette+8, @San Diego St. +7
  
• Losses to tournament teams (9): @Pittsburgh-15, @Notre Dame-3, Louisville-OT, Syracuse-8, @St. John's-17, @Louisville-13, Marquette-OT, @West Virginia-9, Notre Dame-3
• Other losses (0):none

Key Info: When Connecticut completed its sweep of 5 games in 5 days to win the Big East tournament, some asked the question: Was this harder than winning the NCAA tournament? It's a fair question, too. UConn beat Depaul, Georgetown, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville; the last four got a 6, 1, 3, and 4 seed, so if we give DePaul a 14, that's the path a 3-seed might take winning in the Round of 64, 32, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four. So UConn essentially made it to the NCAA finals in 5 days.

Much of the credit can go to Kemba Walker, a Player of the Year candidate who stepped it up big in the conference tournament, averaging 26 points per game over the stretch. How far UConn goes is largely up to him; it's dangerous for a team but also rewarding to rely on one star player so much, but the Huskies have other talent obviously. It's just that Walker's star shines so much brighter you might not see them. Walker led with 18 against Bucknell and 33 against Cincinnati, and vs. San Diego State he had 36.

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Season overview: Arizona (30-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): Northern Colorado+23, UCLA+11, Southern California+9, Washington+1, @Southern California+5, =Memphis+2, =Texas+1, =Duke+16
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Duke+16
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Kansas-8, @Brigham Young-22, @Washington-17, @Southern California-8, @UCLA-22, =Washington-OT
• Other losses (1): @Oregon St.-1

Key Info: What in the world got into Arizona Thursday night? Nothing they'd done all year suggested they could beat Duke in an important game, let alone blow them out, especially when Duke controlled the game and had a nice 6-point halftime lead. And that's probably exactly what happened: the game was going Duke's way, and even though Derrick Williams had 25 points the Blue Devils were ahead. He wasn't going to score 50, so Duke thought they should coast to a win.

Williams, averaged 19.1 points and 8.1 rebounds in the regular season and is living up to our prediction of becoming the tournament's breakout star. He backed it up against Memphis, where his last-second block saved the game for the Wildcats, and against Texas he had 17 points and 9 rebounds. He finished with 32 points and 13 rebounds against Duke. To be *the* star of the tournament, he'll have to beat Kemba Walker and UConn.

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Game Analysis: Arizona played their best game of the year on Thursday, but UConn has played their best stretch of eight games starting with the Big East tournament.

For the year, UConn is the better team, but of course it really only matters what the teams are doing right now.

Vegas Line:

Connecticut by  2 1/2

Power rating spread

Connecticut by  1.0

% Chance to win

Arizona:            47% 
Connecticut:        53%

Connecticut is only a few slots higher in our power rating, and that's worth exactly one point and a 53-47 edge in % to win by game comparisons. Vegas sees the Huskies as a 2.5 to 3 point favorite.

Bottom line: Arizona was great in their last game. UConn has been consistently very good in their last 8 games. You have to weigh the odds of Arizona having another Duke-like game—in which case, they will probably win in double digits—against the odds of the Wildcats not reaching those heights, in which case UConn should win. We think the latter odds are a bit better.

Final prediction: Connecticut 72, Arizona 66
 

2011 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (2) Florida vs. (8) Butler

Florida Gators
Seed: 2
Record: 29-7
Conference: SEC

vs.

Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 26-9
Conference: Horizon

Date: Saturday, March 26
Time: 4:20 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA 
Region: Southeast

 

Butler is trying to reach the Final Four for the 2nd straight time, while the Gators want to return for the first time since their back-to-back national championships in 2006 and 2007.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Florida                            Butler

Power Ratings

Strength:      #21                 Strength:      #45
Neutral court: #24                 Neutral court: #43
Consistency:   #272                Consistency:   #320

Tempo-free:    #18                 Tempo-free:    #46
Offense:       #18                 Offense:       #33
Defense:       #38                 Defense:       #74

Recent Play

2nd half of season: #15            2nd half of season: #44
Last 6 games:       #17            Last 6 games:       #27
Last 3 games:       #9             Last 3 games:       #14 

 

Season overview: Florida (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (16): Morehead St.+6, @Florida St.+4, Kansas St.+13, @Xavier+4, @Tennessee+OT, @Georgia+OT, Vanderbilt+OT, Kentucky+2, Tennessee+1, Georgia+9, @Vanderbilt+10, =Tennessee+11, =Vanderbilt+11, UC Santa Barbara+28, UCLA+8, =Brigham Young+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): @Florida St.+4, Kentucky+2, =Brigham Young+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): Ohio St.-18, @Kentucky-8, =Kentucky-16
• Other losses (4): @Central Florida-3, Jacksonville-OT, South Carolina-3, @Mississippi St.-7

Key Info: Those who were shocked by Florida's 2-seed should look at that top bullet point—Florida had 13 wins over tournament teams and now has 16. Sure, the Gators don't rank that well in power ratings, but the committee doesn't use those. They won a lot of close games that could just as easily have been losses—but again, not something the committee cares about. And they had some bad losses, but wins are what matters most in the end. And by reaching the Elite Eight, they've matched the expectation of their seeding, and are going for more.

The team was hitting its stride late when they fell apart against Kentucky. This follows that pattern of unpredictability (if that makes any sense) that has plagued the Gators and makes us question whether they can put together a Final Four run. They're vulnerable to being upset, but if they clear the early hurdles they can beat a better team. The irony is, now that they've cleared the early hurdles they're facing a lower seed, so their vulnerability to being upset is still in play.

Florida is led by guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton; it was Chandler Parsons who sparked their opening win with nearly a triple-double against Santa Barbara, but Walker's 21 paced the Gators against UCLA. The win against BYU was a true team effort, with four players in double figures led by Alex Tyus' 19.

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Season overview: Butler (26-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): =Florida St.+3, =Old Dominion+2, =Pittsburgh+1, =Wisconsin+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): =Florida St.+3, =Wisconsin+7
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Louisville-15, =Duke-12, @Xavier-2
• Other losses (6): Evansville-OT, @Wisconsin Milwaukee-24, @Wright St.-5, Wisconsin Milwaukee-OT, @Valparaiso-OT, @Youngstown St.-2

Key Info: Looking at Butler's year, the early season had more peaks, the middle had some problems, and the later season—up to their Elite Eight run—has been better again. Another interesting stat is their Consistency rank of #319; we've been doubting the Bulldogs can return to the title game this year, but we've also said that if their variance is on the upside they could upset some better teams. Pitt and Wisconsin found that out. Will Florida be the team's 3rd higher-seeded victim?

The team is clearly not as good as last year's model, mainly for the loss of Gordon Hayward, but Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have been just as good as they were on the Bulldogs' NCAA runner-up squad; Mack had 30 against Pitt, and Howard had 20 points and 12 rebounds against Wisconsin. The experience of last year's run will continue to be invaluable. Florida hasn't been this far since 2007 and their key players, of course, are completely different.

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Game Analysis: Butler is once again, come tournament time, playing out of their heads and my gut feeling is that they will make it to their second straight Final Four.

But Florida is playing very well lately, too, and measured over 3, 6, and 12-game intervals, all of which should be to Butler's advantage, the Gators rate slightly better.

Florida survived a mediocre 3-point shooting night against BYU (11 of 34) by making 20 of 31 2-point shots, many by Alex Tyus who had his way inside against the Cougars. It won't be as easy inside against Butler, who shut down Wisconsin's Jon Leuer. Florida even survived going 10 of 22 from the free throw line. What if they just make their free throws this time?

Vegas Line:

Florida by  4

Power rating spread

Florida  by  2.7    

% Chance to win

Florida:      56% 
Butler:       44% 

The oddsmakers are taking a pretty standard line by taking the Gators by 3 (moved to 4). There's little allowance for Butler's improvement or "momentum". Though I suppose you could say Florida has momentum, too.

Bottom line: My gut feeling was that Butler will make the Final Four again, but Florida is better over almost any time frame sampled. But both teams are very inconsistent, making any outcome easily obtainable on a given night. Looking at Florida's win over BYU even when they didn't shoot the 3 or the free throw well at all, I have to take the Gators by a point.

Final prediction: Florida 67, Butler 66
 

Sweet Sixteen Upsets - Arizona Shocks Duke, 93-77; Butler beats Wisconsin 61-54

In a huge upset, 5-seed Arizona used a monster 2nd half to take down defending national champion Duke, 93-77. Derrick Williams had 32 points, 25 in the 1st half. Kyrie Irvin had 28 for the Blue Devils.

Duke's finals game opponent from last year, Butler, held on to beat Wisconsin after taking a 22 point lead in the 2nd half. Wisconsin mounted a furious comeback but it fell short, 61-54. The Bulldogs held Badger big man Jon Leuer to 3 points on 1 of 12 shooting; Jordan Taylor had 22 but hit only 6 of 19. Matt Howard had 20 points for Butler.

Arizona will face Connecticut on Friday, while Butler will go up against Florida in the Elite Eight.

Sweet Sixteen Final Scores: Mountain West Teams Lose: Florida beats BYU 84-73 (OT), UConn Tops SDSU 74-67

The two elite Mountain West teams both played hard-fought games in the Sweet Sixteen but lost to major conference opponents.

San Diego State was neck-and-neck with Connecticut the entire game until the last several minutes, when they fell behind, caught right back up, and fell behind again, finally falling 74-67.

Brigham Young was down 10 points early but a switch to man-to-man defense helped them catchup and stay close to Florida the whole way, forcing overtime. Florida took over in the extra period and won, 84-73.

Both teams' big stars played well; Kawhi Leonard had 12 points and 9 rebounds for the Aztecs, and Jimmer Fredette poured in his typical 32 but went cold down the stretch. But their opponents' stars matched them and more: Kemba Walker had 36 for UConn, while Florida had 4 players in double figures led by Alex Tyus' 19.

Before tonight the Mountain West co-champs had just 6 losses between them, with three coming from interplay. BYU finishes the season 32-5, while San Diego State falls to 34-3. UConn will meet the winner of Duke-Arizona, while Florida will face the winner of Butler-Wisconsin.

2011 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Ohio State vs. (4) Kentucky

Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 1
Record: 34-2
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 4
Record: 27-8
Conference: SEC

Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 9:45 pm Eastern
Location: Newark, NJ 
Region: East

 

The Buckeyes had an easy time with George Mason but now they face one of the best teams left in the tournament.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Ohio St.                           Kentucky

Power Ratings

Strength:      #1 (#1 of 16)       Strength:      #7  (#4 of 16)
Neutral court: #1                  Neutral court: #7
Injuries Adj:  #2                  Injuries Adj:  #6

Tempo-free:    #1                  Tempo-free:    #7
Offense:       #1                  Offense:       #8
Defense:       #7                  Defense:       #20

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #1             2nd half of season: #12
Last 6 games:       #2             Last 6 games:       #6
Consistency:        #228           Consistency:        #131

 

Season overview: Ohio St. (34-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (18): @Florida+18, Morehead St.+19, @Florida St.+14, NC Asheville+47, Oakland+29, @Michigan+4, Penn St.+3, @Illinois+5, Purdue+23, Michigan+9, Michigan St.+10, Illinois+19, @Penn St.+21, Wisconsin+28, =Michigan+7, =Penn St.+11, Texas San Antonio+29, George Mason+32
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (3): @Florida+18, @Florida St.+14, Wisconsin+28
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): @Wisconsin-4, @Purdue-13
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: Ohio State just keeps winning, like an unstoppable machine, beating an outrageous total of 18 games against tournament teams. Sure, they dropped two games on the road—to Wisconsin, who made the Sweet Sixteen, and Purdue, a 3-seed—but in general the team seems to have no flaws, or its flaws just don't matter.

The Buckeyes were faulted for not having a true point guard, but no one's exploited that yet. Jared Sullinger, a freshman, gets most of the attention but the Buckeyes are loaded with experience: Starters Jon Diebler, Dallas Lauderdale, and David Lighty are all seniors, and William Buford is a junior. Some say the wealth of supporting talent kept Sullinger from winning Big Ten player of the year, but in reality it's exactly what made him Big Ten Freshman of the year. Sullinger averages 17.2 points and 10.1 rebounds per game; he had 11 and 9 against UTSA while the others handled the scoring. Against George Mason he had 18 while Lighty scored 25 on 7-of-7 3-point shooting.

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Season overview: Kentucky (27-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =Washington+7, Boston University+34, Notre Dame+14, @Louisville+15, Georgia+6, Tennessee+12, Florida+8, Vanderbilt+2, @Tennessee+6, =Florida+16, =Princeton+2, =West Virginia+8
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): Florida+8, =Florida+16
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =Connecticut-17, @North Carolina-2, @Georgia-7, @Florida-2, @Vanderbilt-4
• Other losses (3): @Alabama-2, @Mississippi-2, @Arkansas-OT

Key Info: Kentucky is one of the better 4-seeds you'll ever find. They're good enough to be a 2-seed according to our power ratings, and if their performance dipped in a mid-season slump, it picked back up as they won their last six games to take the SEC tournament crown. It's fair to say it dipped again against 13-seed Princeton, whom the Wildcats escaped by just 2 points.

Still, what they accomplished is all the more impressive when you consider what they lost from last year's #1 seed team. John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson were among five (5!) Wildcats taken in the first round. But as he usually does, John Calipari recruited replacements and set about forming another star-studded team; this year freshmen Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb are the team's leading scorers. Knight scored 30 points in the win over West Virginia.

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Game Analysis: Ohio State faces a foe that's at least as tough as the 2 and 3 seeds (North Carolina and Syracuse) in the region . After George Mason became a breather, and after playing the first two rounds very close to home, the Buckeyes move to a neutral court in New Jersey. They can't expect another 30 point blowout like their first two tournament wins, obviously.

The Buckeyes' starters are mostly seniors, while Kentucky depends on its freshman. Those freshman have improved over the season, but Ohio State has the best freshman of all in Sullinger.

Vegas Line:

Ohio State by 5 1/2

Power rating spread

Ohio St. by  5.7 

% Chance to win

Ohio St.:     65%   
Kentucky:     35%  

As good as Kentucky is, Ohio State has been so consistently strong this year that chinks in their armor are hard to find. The Wildcats are one of the few teams that can challenge them, though, and it should be a fairly close game. The oddsmakers and our power ratings see a 5-6 point game.

Bottom line: The Wildcat freshman will try to overthrow the old guard, but Ohio State's freshman star might force Kentucky to go with a bigger lineup, and get their big men in foul trouble. If that doesn't happen, Kentucky could really keep it close and have a shot at winning, but I think the 5-6 point spread is about right. UK will have to wait until next year, which could be a Final Four year if their players stay.

Final prediction: Ohio State 73, Kentucky 68
 

2011 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (2) North Carolina vs. (11) Marquette

North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 2
Record: 28-7
Conference: ACC

vs.

Marquette Golden Eagles
Seed: 11
Record: 22-14
Conference: Big East

Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 7:15 pm Eastern
Location: Newark, NJ 
Region: East

 

The ACC, which started with 5 teams, has 3 in the Sweet Sixteen. The Big East started with 11 and only has 2 left. One conference is guaranteed to lose a team here.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     North Carolina                     Marquette

Power Ratings

Strength:      #13 (#8 of 16)      Strength:      #25(#12 of 16)
Neutral court: #13                 Neutral court: #26
Injuries Adj:  #7                  Injuries Adj:  #27

Tempo-free:    #15                 Tempo-free:    #26
Offense:       #46                 Offense:       #19
Defense:       #5                  Defense:       #59

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #13            2nd half of season: #29
Last 6 games:       #32            Last 6 games:       #39
Consistency:        #320           Consistency:        #117
 

 

Season overview: North Carolina (28-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): NC Asheville+11, Kentucky+2, Clemson+10, Florida St.+20, @Clemson+2, @Florida St.+2, Duke+14, Clemson+OT, Long Island+15, Washington+3
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (4): Kentucky+2, Florida St.+20, @Florida St.+2, Duke+14
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =Vanderbilt-7, @Illinois-12, Texas-2, @Duke-6, =Duke-17
• Other losses (2): =Minnesota-5, @Georgia Tech-20

Key Info: Interestingly, North Carolina has more wins against the Sweet Sixteen than any other Sweet Sixteen team; they beat Kentucky in the pre-conference season, then beat FSU twice and Duke once.

UNC has played better with point guard Kendall Marshall, who took over from Larry Drew (since departed). Just a few weeks ago it was a significant difference, putting the Tar Heels near the top five when only the Marshall games were counted. But North Carolina's recent mediocre play has evened the score a bit; now they only get a bump from #13 overall to #12.

Harrison Barnes has been playing much better in the 2nd half of the season, too, and he had 22 in the win over Washington.

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Season overview: Marquette (22-14)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (8): Bucknell+11, West Virginia+5, Notre Dame+22, Syracuse+6, @Connecticut+OT, =West Virginia+6, =Xavier+11, =Syracuse+4
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): @Connecticut+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams (13): =Duke-5, =Gonzaga-3, Wisconsin-5, @Vanderbilt-1, @Pittsburgh-8, @Louisville-1, @Notre Dame-5, Connecticut-8, @Villanova-5, @Georgetown-9, St. John's-12, Cincinnati-7, =Louisville-25
• Other losses (1): @Seton Hall-13

Key Info: Marquette has probably lost to more tournament teams than any other tournament team. They've now won 8 games against the field, for a remarkable 21 games total. Most of the wins were over Big East teams; they beat Syracuse to get into Sweet Sixteen, and the only Sweet Sixteen team they've defeated is UConn.

The Eagles were lucky to get here, and it didn't always look likely. But they beat some big opponents down the stretch to make it happen. And a lot of those losses—7 of them to be exact—were by 5 or fewer points. Lately Marquette has been very hit and miss—two great NCAA games were preceded by a crushing loss to Louisville, preceded by 2 more big wins, which followed two terrible losses. The question is, how long before the tide turns and the Eagles have another bad game?

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Game Analysis: Marquette's two tournament games have been great, as have 4 of their last 7. The other 3 were terrible. Meanwhile North Carolina has been consistently mediocre for their last five games.

North Carolina won't have home court advantage anymore, either. So if the Golden Eagles play like they've been playing during the tournament so far, UNC will be going home. But if Marquette has a down game, they'll be thrashed themselves.

Vegas Line:

UNC by  4 1/2

Power rating spread

UNC by  3.2  
 

% Chance to win

UNC:        55% 
Marquette:  45%

On average, though, for the whole season UNC is slightly better than Marquette. And Marquette doesn't normally lose by a lot of points, so naturally the Tar Heels are a less-than-five-point favorite, according to both our power rating and the oddsmakers.

Bottom line: I think the odds above are about right; UNC wins about 11 of 20 matchups. And based on how Marquette is playing in the last month, if they lose it might not be that close. Their early losses were close but lately they've been winning big and losing big, so despite the expected close game we're going to take North Carolina by double digits.

Final prediction: North Carolina 82, Marquette 71
 

2011 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (10) Florida State vs. (11) VCU

Florida State Seminoles
Seed: 10
Record: 23-10
Conference: ACC

vs.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Seed: 11
Record: 26-11
Conference: Colonial Athletic

Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Location: San Antonio, TX 
Region: Southwest

 

Two of the hottest teams in the tournament are Florida State and Virginia Commonwealth, who are part of the first ever 10 vs. 11 seed matchup.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Florida State                      Virginia Commonwealth

Power Ratings

Strength:      #34 (#13 of 16)     Strength:      #75 (#16 of 16)
Neutral court: #31                 Neutral court: #71
Injuries Adj:  #30                 Injuries Adj:  #73

Tempo-free:    #38                 Tempo-free:    #69
Offense:       #141                Offense:       #48
Defense:       #1                  Defense:       #111

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #27            2nd half of season: #63
Last 6 games:       #16            Last 6 games:       #8 Consistency:        #30            Consistency:        #298 

 

Season overview: Florida State (23-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Clemson+6, Duke+5, =Texas A&M+7, @Notre Dame+14
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): Duke+5
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): Florida-4, Ohio St.-14, =Butler-3, @Clemson-18, @North Carolina-20, North Carolina-2
• Other losses (2): @Auburn-5, @Virginia Tech-12, @Maryland-16, =Virginia Tech-1

Key Info: FSU played their best game in beating Notre Dame on a hardly-neutral court; it topped their win over Duke, which came at home.

Chris Singleton is the team's only double-digit scorer, and he was out for the last six games of the season. Surprisingly they played quite well despite his absence. Maybe it's because offense isn't that important to FSU; now the #1 defensive team in the country and #141 offensive team, losing a top scorer isn't a death sentence. They did, however, lose three of the six games without him, and in two of them, a 3-point basket would have been the difference. Singleton returned for the Texas A&M game, but he played just 16 minutes and scored 5 points; against the Irish he played 10 minutes and didn't score. Teammates are picking up the slack on offense and defense is getting the job done.

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Season overview: Virginia Commonwealth (26-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (7): =UCLA+4, Wofford+9, @Old Dominion+9, George Mason+16, =Southern California+13, =Georgetown+18, @Purdue+18
  
• Losses to tournament teams (6): =Tennessee-5, @Richmond-12, @UAB-3, Old Dominion-11, George Mason-20, Old Dominion-5
• Other losses (5): @South Florida-OT, @Georgia St.-10, @Northeastern-11, @Drexel-4, James Madison-3

Key Info: VCU also manhandled a high seed on a not-so-neutral court, beating Purdue 94-76, for their best performance of the year. The prior game, against Georgetown, is not their 2nd best effort, and in all, four of their five top games are in the last five games.

The Rams hit their stride in the middle of the season, building up a good case for the CAA to have three selections, only to see that argument crumble by the season's end as they lost 6 of their last 11 games. Still, they'd achieved enough goodwill to be one of the last four in. On offense four Rams average double figures; Jamie Skeen had 16 against USC and Joey Rodriguez had 17 against the Hoyas. Six players were in double figures against Purdue, with Rodriguez dishing out 11 assists.

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Game Analysis: 10-seed vs. 11-seed is uncharted territory in the NCAA tournament. There shouldn't be all that much difference between these teams, but remember VCU is a borderline 11/12, since they had to play-in (there were 5 11-seeds).

For the full season, FSU has a much better track record. They average out to the top defense in the country, while VCU's offense is good (#48) but not great. The Rams catch a break on defense, which is normally their weakness (#111) as Florida State's offense isn't very good (#141). If they pressure FSU and it works, they might get opportunities on offense that FSU's D normally wouldn't yield.

Vegas Line:

Florida St. by  4

Power rating spread

Florida St. by  5.3 

% Chance to win

FSU:   68% 
VCU:   32% 

The oddsmakers agree with our power rating, and the game-comparison system heavily favors the Seminoles. The question is, how much is the full season relevant? VCU is playing by far their best of the year, and FSU just had their best game, too.

VCU's surge seems more reliable than Florida State's, since it has covered several games now. Is that enough to override a full season's worth of games?

Bottom line: Last preview for VCU I said I wasn't convinced. USC had a distracting issue with their coach; Georgetown had Chris Wright back at less than 100%. Even Purdue was missing a key reserve. But I said that if they could beat the Boilermakers, I'd have to consider the Rams for real. And they didn't just edge Purdue; they pulled ahead in the first half and made it worse during the 2nd half.

Though neither team is one of the best in the country, they're both playing like it right now. FSU is #16 in recent play, showing that they belong in the Sweet Sixteen, but VCU is #8, meaning they should be the team to advance to the Elite Eight.

Final prediction:  Virginia Commonwealth 67, Florida State 64
 

2011 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Kansas vs. (12) Richmond

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 34-2
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Richmond Spiders
Seed: 12
Record: 29-7
Conference: Atlantic 10

Date: Friday, March 25
Time: 7:27 pm Eastern
Location: San Antonio, TX 
Region: Southwest

 

Richmond beat a 5-seed then had a break against a 13-seed. Now they tackle a 1-seed.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Kansas                             Richmond

Power Ratings

Strength:      #3 (#3 of 16)       Strength:      #44 (#14 of 16)
Neutral court: #3                  Neutral court: #41
Injuries Adj:  #3                  Injuries Adj:  #42

Tempo-free:    #3                  Tempo-free:    #40
Offense:       #6                  Offense:       #40
Defense:       #6                  Defense:       #53

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #2             2nd half of season: #48
Last 6 games:       #14            Last 6 games:       #18 Consistency:        #284           Consistency:        #176 

 

Season overview: Kansas (34-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (12): =Arizona+8, UCLA+1, =Memphis+13, Southern California+2, @Michigan+OT, Kansas St.+24, Missouri+17, Texas A&M+13, @Missouri+4, Texas+12, =Boston University+19, =Illinois+14
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Arizona+8
  
• Losses to tournament teams (2): Texas-11, @Kansas St.-16
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: The Jayhawks looked unstoppable early on, wiping the floor with teams both good and bad. They came back down to earth against the Pac-10, however, beating UCLA and USC at home by just 3 points total. That home vulnerability foreshadowed their first defeat in Allen Fieldhouse in 69 games against Texas. They later lost to K-State on the road, but that was it for losses, and they later avenged the Texas defeat.

The Morris twins—Morris and Markieff—lead the Jayhawks in scoring and rebounding at 17.3/7.2 and 13.6/8.2 apiece. Guards Tyrel Reed and Tyshawn Taylor contribute outside play, but freshman Josh Selby seems to do more harm than good sometimes as he shoots just 38.2%. Selby is the anti-Kyrie Irvin; Kansas' first several games without him rate higher than those after he joined the team, which is probably why he has limited playing time lately. The Morris twins combined for 31 against Boston U. and 41 against Illinois—with 12 rebounds each.

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Season overview: Richmond (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =Purdue+11, Virginia Commonwealth+12, =Temple+4, =Vanderbilt+3, =Morehead St.+17
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): Virginia Commonwealth+12
  
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @Old Dominion-7, Bucknell-1, Xavier-23, @Temple-20
• Other losses (3): @Iona-OT, =Georgia Tech-13, Rhode Island-4

Key Info: Richmond was floating along this season, racking up wins while still marred by the occasional poor loss (Xavier by 23, Temple by 20) when suddenly everything clicked in the last seven games (now, nine) and the Spiders played like a top 25 program. Having previously defeated both Purdue and VCU, they were guaranteed a Sweet Sixteen scalp when those two schools met in the Round of 32.

Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson are the team's dynamic duo, and Anderson especially has been on a tear lately, topping 20 points six times in the last nine wins, including 25 against Vanderbilt. Harper led with 19 against Morehead. The Spiders boast four senior starters.

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Game Analysis: 12-seeds in the Sweet Sixteen aren't too uncommon; there's almost one each year. 12-seeds beating 1-seeds is very uncommon, however—it's never happened. 12-seeds are 0-17 against 1-seeds.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by  10 1/2

Power rating spread

Kansas by  11.2

% Chance to win

Kansas:      79% 
Richmond:    21% 

The game-comparison system gives Richmond a 1 in 5, rather than a zero in 17, chance. And over the last several games the Spiders are playing almost as well as Kansas. Richmond's last 9 games are very indicative of their current level of play, and that suggests a closer game than double digits.

Bottom line: It's probably going to be 0 and 18 for 12-seeds.

Final prediction: Kansas 74, Richmond 68
 

2011 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (4) Wisconsin vs. (8) Butler

Wisconsin Badgers
Seed: 4
Record: 25-8
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 8
Record: 25-9
Conference: Horizon

Date: Thursday, March 24
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA
Region: Southeast

 

Look for a slow-tempo, half-court game when Wisconsin and Butler clash in the Big Easy.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Wisconsin                          Butler

Power Ratings

Strength:      #10 (#7 of 16)      Strength:      #45 (#15 of 16)
Neutral court: #12                 Neutral court: #43
Injuries Adj:  #8                  Injuries Adj:  #39

Tempo-free:    #5                  Tempo-free:    #46
Offense:       #2                  Offense:       #33
Defense:       #56                 Defense:       #74

Special Analyses

2nd half of season: #6             2nd half of season: #49
Last 6 games:       #24            Last 6 games:       #27 Consistency:        #197           Consistency:        #319

 

Season overview: Wisconsin (25-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (10): @Marquette+5, Michigan+16, Illinois+10, Purdue+7, Michigan St.+26, Ohio St.+4, Penn St.+10, @Michigan+1, =Belmont+14, =Kansas St.+5
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (2): @Marquette+5, Michigan St.+26
  
• Losses to tournament teams (8): @Nevada Las Vegas-3, =Notre Dame-7, @Illinois-8, @Michigan St.-OT, @Penn St.-4, @Purdue-8, @Ohio St.-28, =Penn St.-3
• Other losses (0): none

Key Info: When Wisconsin is good, they're very good, as they were when they beat North Carolina State 87-48, Northwestern 78-46, and Michigan State 82-56. But their two games right before the tournament were duds: the Badgers were crushed by Ohio State 93-65, then shot abysmally in a 36-33 loss to Penn State. They've hopefully put those games behind them with the Belmont and K-State wins.

Wisconsin has a great one-two punch with Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor, perhaps the best inside-outside threat in the country. Leuer averages 18.6 points and 7.3 rebounds, and Taylor scores 18.0 and adds 4.7 assists. Both are in the top ten of Ken Pomeroy's POY race. But if either or both struggle, the rest of the team often can't pick up any of the slack. In the Penn State game Leuer and Taylor were a combined 12 of 37, scoring 26 of the team's 33 points. Against Belmont they scored 43 combined and were 6 of 12 on three pointers; against K-State Leuer had 19 while Taylor had 12 on 2-of-16 shooting.

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Season overview: Butler (25-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): =Florida St.+3, =Old Dominion+2, =Pittsburgh+1
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Florida St.+3
  
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Louisville-15, =Duke-12, @Xavier-2
• Other losses (6): Evansville-OT, @Wisconsin Milwaukee-24, @Wright St.-5, Wisconsin Milwaukee-OT, @Valparaiso-OT, @Youngstown St.-2

Key Info: Looking at Butler's year, the early season had more peaks so it's easy to see why their 2nd half used to rank so much worse than the first half. But will their recent play, there's not much difference. Another interesting stat is their Consistency rank of #319; we doubt the Bulldogs will return to the title game this year, but last review we noted that if their variance is on the upside they could upset some better teams. Old Dominion and Pitt realize that, too, and Wisconsin could find out.

The team is clearly not as good as last year's model, mainly for the loss of Gordon Hayward, but Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack have been just as good as they were on the Bulldogs' NCAA runner-up squad; both had 15 points against Old Dominion, and Mack had 30 against Pitt. The experience of last year's run will continue to be invaluable. They were here last year, while Wisconsin hasn't been in the Sweet Sixteen since 2008.

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Game Analysis: Both teams play a slower tempo, but Wisconsin plays the slowest tempo in the nation. Butler could counter by trying to run, but Wisconsin normally gets the slow tempo it wants, so the Bulldogs might just acquiesce and make the game a true half-court battle. They just beat another slow-tempo team, Pittsburgh, at their own game (with a little luck at the end).

Last year Butler overperformed on the way to runner-up status; in the Strength Power Rating they finished the year at #26, and were much lower before the tournament. They're up to #45 this year, and have won two very close games. It's doubtful they can make it to the Final Four, but can they at least get one more upset?

Vegas Line:

Wisconsin by  4

Power rating spread

Wisconsin by  6.8     

% Chance to win

Wisconsin:   66% 
Butler:      34% 

Butler went all the way to the final game last year pulling off upsets all the way, so even with their history they don't get the benefit of the doubt. But Wisconsin is like that while being the favorite; most people can't fathom that this low-scoring team is really one of the best in the country. So it's a battle of two disrespected teams. Wisconsin is the favorite, but everyone knows in the back of their mind that Butler is a giant-killer, and low-scoring games have closer margins to make up if you get behind.

Bottom line: Butler is playing almost as well as Wisconsin recently. Almost. Butler almost blew their last game due to a reckless error, then ended up winning it for the other team's brain fart. Wisconsin—the most patient team in the country—probably won't do that.

Final prediction: Wisconsin 64, Butler 61