Butler beat Milwaukee, Marquette got a much-needed win, and VCU fell off the bubble—a day after they lost to Old Dominion.
At the top of the Dance Chance, not much changed from yesterday of course. Connecticut pushed itself up a seed to a 6 by winning their first round game. Villanova remained an 8-seed after their loss. Wins by several Atlantic 10 teams pushed Xavier's RealWins ranking to #20, which is also their RPI; they're at #18 overall.
The bubble portion of the latest Dance Chance:
# | Team | Conference | Record (vs. Div I) |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
RealWins rank |
Dance Chance |
Seed | Chg |
43 | Butler | Horizon | 22-9 | 13-5 | 34 | 33 | 55.8 | 11 | +1 |
44 | Memphis | C-USA | 22-9 | 10-6 | 38 | 38 | 54.1 | 11 | |
45 | Richmond | Atlantic 10 | 24-7 | 13-3 | 58 | 42 | 49.5 | 12 | -1 |
46 | Gonzaga | West Coast | 23-9 | 11-3 | 55 | 45 | 46.2 | 12 | |
47 | Cleveland St. | Horizon | 24-8 | 13-5 | 41 | 35 | 45.5 | 12 | |
48 | Clemson | ACC | 20-10 | 9-7 | 60 | 56 | 42.5 | 12 | +1 |
49 | St. Mary's | West Coast | 22-8 | 11-3 | 48 | 55 | 41.6 | 12 | |
50 | Southern California | Pac-10 | 18-13 | 10-8 | 70 | 46 | 40.5 | 13 | -1 |
51 | Penn St. | Big Ten | 16-13 | 9-9 | 55 | 64 | 35.1 | 13 | + |
52 | Virginia Commonwealth | Colonial Ath | 23-11 | 12-6 | 50 | 32 | 35.0 | - | |
53 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 16-13 | 9-9 | 47 | 73 | 34.3 | ||
54 | Marquette | Big East | 19-13 | 9-9 | 63 | 59 | 33.3 | ||
55 | Michigan | Big Ten | 18-12 | 9-9 | 57 | 72 | 29.6 |
Butler moved up to an 11-seed while Cleveland State remained above the "first four" level teams, giving the Horizon a probable two-team seeding in our estimation. Butler's jump pushed Memphis and Richmond down a notch, the latter falling to a 12-seed, but both those teams have yet to start conference tournament play.
The West Coast Conference should have two teams in as well, but St. Mary's seeding is pretty shaky. Clemson floats up a seed and USC down a seed but both remain in the last four in. Interestingly, VCU falls out; their RPI didn't change after they lost to Old Dominion, but it fell a notch today, and their RealWins ranking dropped as Temple passed them due to the start of the Atlantic 10 tournament (Temple didn't win, but some of their previous victims did).
Replacing them is Penn State, who places ahead of the teams most people have "in" the tournament, Michigan State and Michigan. The teams' résumés are remarkably similar:
- PSU and MSU are both 16-13, while Michigan is 18-12
- all three have 9-9 records in the Big Ten
- RPIs are in a tight range, from 47 to 57
- RealWins rankings are close: 64, 73, and 72
- each has 3 wins over RPI top 50, and 6 over 51-100
- PSU and MSU have top ten schedule strengths; with Michigan at #18
The Wolverines got a first-round bye in the Big Ten tournament, which may end up hurting them; a first-round win might be enough to propel Penn State or Michigan State into the tournament, while a subsequent second-round loss to Purdue or Wisconsin won't harm them much. Michigan plays Illinois, and a loss there might sink them.
Speaking of first-round wins, Marquette got one last night, beating Providence. They still don't make the Dance Chance field yet, however. Their résumé is much like the Big Ten teams featured above, with a slightly worse RPI and slightly better RealWins. They have four top 50 RPI wins, but only 3 51-100. The fact that they play in the Big East could either help them (as the toughest conference) or hurt them (is the committee really—despite the idea that conference reps aren't tallied—going to put 11 Big East teams in?). A Golden Eagles win over West Virginia tonight would probably render the matter moot, even in our projections.
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