SportsRatings: College Basketball

BYU's Top Seed Chances Skyrocket as Texas & Duke Lose

BYU's big win over San Diego State—again by 13 points, but this time on the road—gave the Cougars a big boost, but just as important were losses later Saturday by top-seed candidates Texas and Duke.

We've had BYU pegged as a 1-seed from time to time on our Dance Chance, but always with the caveat that they had to repeat in defeating the Aztecs and win the Mountain West tournament. Even then we noted that other teams could hold them out of a top spot. Two of those teams are Texas and Duke. The Longhorns have lost two of their last three games—including a 91-89 shocker at Colorado, where they had led by more than 20. Duke fell to Virginia Tech 64-60, in a game they seemingly led comfortably with minutes to go. These turnarounds have left BYU—whose win over San Diego State puts them #1 in the RPI—with a great chance to capture a 1-seed.

As it stands, BYU is very slightly ahead of Duke, who holds on to the final 1-seed joining Kansas and Ohio State. Pittsburgh is right in the mix, and in fact if they beat Louisville today they'll move ahead of both the Blue Devils and the Cougars—it's very tight among the top five. Playing in the Big East gives Pitt the highest risk/reward; if they win out and win their tournament, the Panthers are almost assured of a top seed, whereas BYU and even Duke have less danger but less to gain.

There's a bigger gap separating the top five from #6 Texas, and San Diego State is in low 2-seed territory now. Previously both those teams were prime top seed candidates. The Aztecs dip below surging Purdue, then there's another big gap separating the 2's from the 3's. The big news there is Syracuse jumping over Georgetown after beating them 58-51 on the road. The Hoyas are fading without Chris Wright and tumble to the top 4-seed, but along with the newly-consecrated Orange they are one of the few teams to earn a 100% certainty designation under the Dance Chance formula.

#	Team	Conference	Record (vs. Div I)	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	Dance Chance	Seed	Chg
1	Kansas	Big 12	27-2	12-2	2	1	100%	1
2	Ohio St.	Big Ten	26-2	13-2	3	2	100%	1
3	Brigham Young	Mtn West	26-2	13-1	1	4	100%	1
4	Duke	ACC	26-3	12-2	5	6	100%	1
5	Pittsburgh	Big East	25-3	13-2	7	3	100%	2
6	Texas	Big 12	24-5	12-2	9	12	100%	2
7	Purdue	Big Ten	23-5	12-3	6	8	100%	2
8	San Diego St.	Mtn West	25-2	12-2	4	11	100%	2
9	Florida	SEC	22-6	11-3	12	7	100%	3
10	Notre Dame	Big East	23-5	12-4	11	9	100%	3
11	Syracuse	Big East	24-6	11-6	15	5	100%	3	+1
12	North Carolina	ACC	21-6	11-2	10	16	100%	3
13	Georgetown	Big East	21-8	10-7	8	10	100%	4	-1

Following Georgetown are 9 teams that are going to be in the tournament but haven't quite fulfilling the stringent requirements of the Dance Chance for an 100% designation. In the case of Arizona and Utah State, they haven't won enough games over enough good teams to be a lock in our RealWins chart. Arizona had two chances and muffed them both, losing to USC and the getting creamed by UCLA. Utah State won another Mountain West game but they've got a ways to go yet. Wisconsin can lock things up by beating Northwestern today, and Louisville can do the same with a win over Pittsburgh. Kentucky and Vanderbilt play Tuesday, with the winner claiming a 5-seed.

UConn Stumbling

One-time top seed candidate Connecticut has hit hard times and now isn't even an unofficial lock at 93.6% and falls to a 6-seed. The Huskies are still tournament bound in all but the most extreme circumstances, but they've lost 5 of their last 8 and losing their remaining three (against Cincinnati, West Virginia, and Notre Dame) is a possibility. That would put them 20-10, and 8-10 in conference, with RPI and RealWins scores below the "lock" range. A loss in the first round of the Big East tournament would further complicate matters, and that might make UConn the #11 Big East consideration depending on how other teams fare. With four top 25 wins the Huskies still look like they'll make it under the worst of luck, but in the Big East bad luck is always just around the corner.

Other Big Drops: Texas A&M In Big 12 Logjam, Wichita State Abdicates MVC Crown

Two teams in crowded areas of the ranking fell 2 seeds each after losing: Texas A&M fell two seeds after being upset by Baylor, and Wichita State dropped after their loss to Missouri State. The Aggies are now neck-and-neck with Big Twelve brethren Kansas State and Missouri as 8-seeds; the Wildcats beat the Tigers 80-70 on Saturday. The Missouri Valley season is over and the title goes to Missouri State and it would be very hard to keep the Bears out of the NCAAs even if they falter in the MVC tournament. The Shockers, on the other hand, would fall deep into bubble territory with a conference tourney loss.

UCLA Surges With Arizona Win

After dropping three seeds last Thursday, UCLA bounced back with a big 71-49 win over Arizona. The victory put them in a tie for the Pac-10 lead and pumped their RealWins ranking from #42 to #26, sending them from a 10-seed to a 6-seed (they were the highest 10, now the lowest 6).

USC also beat Arizona, a win that puts them on the bubble. And speaking of the bubble...

#	Team	Conference	Record (vs. Div I)	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	Dance Chance	Seed	Chg
44	Virginia Tech	ACC	19-8	9-5	51	49	58.8	11	+
45	St. Mary's	West Coast	21-7	11-3	49	53	58.2	12	-1
46	Boston College	ACC	17-11	7-7	44	46	54.6	12	+1
47	Richmond	Atlantic 10	22-7	11-3	63	52	48.2	12
48	Michigan St.	Big Ten	15-11	8-7	37	66	45.7	12
49	Cleveland St.	Horizon	22-7	13-5	41	36	42.4	12
50	Gonzaga	West Coast	20-9	11-3	66	57	39.3	12	+
51	Princeton	Ivy League	21-5	10-1	50	78	37.6	13	+
52	Clemson	ACC	19-9	8-6	69	59	34.9	13
53	Southern California	Pac-10	17-12	9-7	79	44	32.5	13	+
54	Penn St.	Big Ten	15-12	8-8	55	64	32.2
55	Minnesota	Big Ten	17-11	6-10	61	56	30.1		-
56	Marquette	Big East	17-11	8-7	55	72	30.1
57	Butler	Horizon	20-9	13-5	46	40	30.0
58	Southern Miss	C-USA	18-7	9-5	42	87	29.4		-
59	Dayton	Atlantic 10	19-9	7-6	57	58	28.2
60	Michigan	Big Ten	17-12	8-9	58	67	26.8
61	Alabama	SEC	19-9	11-3	89	69	23.2		-

Lots of movement in the bubble in just the last three days. The biggest winner ended up being Virginia Tech, who moves from a bubble-busted 39.7% to a strong 58.8% 11-seed designation with their upset win over Duke. Gonzaga inched their way back into consideration by beating St. Mary's; the Zags move into a tie for the West Coast Conference lead and the Gaels recent stumble has dropped them to a troubled 12-seed, and it might be that only the conference tournament winner will be in the Big Dance now.

Trojans (barely) in, Marquette just short

Two teams that we profiled mid-week after upsets make big moves, with Southern California actually clinging to the bottom edge of the bubble after beating Arizona. In this scenario the Trojans would play Clemson for a 13-seed while Michigan State would tackled Gonzaga to see which tourney mainstay made the tournament proper. In all likelihood, however, the bubble would bust after Boston College at #46 due to conference tournament upsets, sending Richmond home with the "first four" teams, as well as Cleveland State and Princeton if they don't win their leagues.

Marquette made a big upward move, from 13% to 30% after upsetting UConn, but for now they still fall short of what we think it would take to make them the 11th Big East team selected. As we noted before, their odds of finishing out strong are good, however.

Horizon and Ivy League Hopes For At-Large Consideration Slim

The Horizon League has Cleveland State as a possible at-large, and Butler has moved slowly back onto the bubble scene. But in the end one or both of these teams has to lose again and that makes the Horizon a 1-bid league. The Ivy is in the same boat despite Princeton's rise to possible at-large territory. To be an at-large, Princeton would have to lose twice, and if that happened they wouldn't be an at-large-worthy team. The League doesn't have a tournament, but if Harvard (who lost to Yale yesterday) beats Princeton, the teams will tie for the title and have a 1-game playoff as a tiebreaker.

Big Ten is this week's ACC

Last week the ACC had bubble teams galore, with the notion that anywhere from 2 to 6 teams could make the tourney. After just a few days' action, 6 looks like a better guess. Florida State got a win to hold at an 11-seed, Virginia Tech soared into the seedings, Boston College moved above 50% by beating Virginia, and Clemson maintained their precarious status with a win over Wake Forest. Now the real bubble action is in the Big Ten.

Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin are all high-seed candidates, while Illinois is holding on to their tournament-bound status. The rest of the league is up in the air. Michigan State plays Purdue today in a game that will either keep them on the bubble or liberate them from it once and for all. Minnesota's fall from grace continues; the shorthanded Gophers have now lost 7 of 8 and are off our seedings chart. Penn State is in the same spot as the Gophers but have won 3 of their last 4; they have one last shot—a chance to upset Ohio State at home—to get into the mix. Michigan is farther behind and has just one conference game left, againt Michigan State, meaning the Big Ten tournament is their only hope for advancement.

Alabama Mystery Continues

Alabama suffered a rare SEC loss, to Mississippi, and fell off our bubble after struggling so hard to get there. The Tide are now 19-9 overall, which isn't bad at all, and 11-3 in the SEC. But they're only #69 in RealWins, and the committee would have to ignore their 89 RPI to give them an at-large bid. This is one of the toughest cases to predict, and while the formula says they're out, I have a suspicion that the committee will look at "intangibles" such as their more recent performance (which of course, is no longer considered!) and make the Tide the team with the worst RPI ever in the field. We'll see.

Southern Mississippi also fell off the bubble after a loss to Central Florida. UCF now holds a meager (perhaps 1 in 8) chance of becoming selection-worthy, about the same as UTEP. The Miners upset Memphis Saturday; the Tigers are one of two C-USA teams in the seedings, the other being UAB.

1-bid Conference Happenings

Long Island of the Northeast won twice since Wednesday and jumped from a 15-seed to barely nab the final 13-seed. The Blackbirds are 24-5 overall and 16-2 in conference, one win better in each case than the Metro Atlantic's Fairfield. Long Island is also one spot ahead of the Stags in both the RPI (87 to 88) and RealWins (#62 to #63). Both are actually viable at-large selections other than their RPI, but a loss in conference tourney play would sink that possibility.

The other event in the minor conferences is Murray State winning the Ohio Valley regular season, displacing Morehead State with a 70-62 win. The Racers finished with a 14-4 record, and have the top seed in the conference tournament which will decide the Valley's NCAA rep.

Daily Dance Chance Starting in March

Two things are going to start soon: 1) Conference tournaments, so conference champs will be marked in green all the way across their stats line to differentiate between those that are "declared" champions due to their ranking, and 2) the Dance Chance goes daily, starting in (appropriately enough) March.

Yes, USC is Back in the Mix

A few days ago I contested a number of Jason King's points about the NCAA selection committee, so today I thought I'd give him his due: he noted that USC's win over Arizona puts them on the bubble, something I'd missed while concentrating on giving Marquette kudos for their win over UConn.

USC has had a poor record most the year after a bad start. They had solid wins over Texas and Tennessee before the Pac-10 season, and beat UCLA in conference, so their RealWins ranking was #63, which is pretty strong for a team that had just 15 wins. But their RPI was terrible at 89, and prior to the Arizona game the Trojans ranked #76 in our Dance Chance with just a 1 in 8 chance of managing to make the tournament by Selection Sunday.

With the Arizona win, the Trojans have now beaten four top-50 RPI teams. They're still just 16-12 overall, but that's better than they've looked in a while, and 8-7 in the Pac-10 isn't bad either. The main boost they got from beating Arizona was in RPI and RealWins: USC's RPI jumped from 89 to 75, still too low but headed in the right direction. Their RealWins score leapt from #63 to #44, which is good enough already for an at-large berth.

Put together, USC's Dance Chance increased to around 35%, enough to put them near the bottom of the bubble. The Trojans might deserve better, too, and not just because they were shorthanded early in the season.

Our RealWins formula only goes 3 levels deep, like the RPI. The first iteration looks at a team's wins, the next adds in opponent's wins, and the 3rd takes in opponent's opponent's wins. This correlates most strongly with what the committee selects, which makes sense as that's how deep the RPI goes. But unlike the RPI it doesn't care about losses—it's purely a measure of who you've defeated. And it turns out losses don't factor much into who the committee chooses, since RealWins alone picks the field very accurately.

So the fact that USC has some terrible losses on its slate only serves to lower their RPI; the committee is going to be more concerned with who USC has managed to defeat, which is good news for them. And if the committee used better measures, the Trojans would be in even better shape. If RealWins, instead of going 3 levels deep, takes the algorithm to "infinite" depth, USC comes out even better: around #33, an area which is pretty much a lock according to the RealWins formula (and the fact that 37 at-large teams are taken).

All factors considered, for now USC is still on the wrong side of the bubble looking in. If the selections were made today they'd be omitted, and they need to do more to even show up in anyone's mock brackets. USC has three games left in the Pac-10: Arizona State, Washington State, and Washington. They face the Cougars on the road, so a 1-2 finish is the more likely prospect, and that wouldn't do it. At 2-1 they put themselves in position, and a win over Washington in the final game would probably put them in.

All in all, USC's win over Arizona did almost as much for them as Marquette's win over UConn. While the Golden Eagles are in better shape right now—and actually have an easier road ahead—don't quite count the Trojans out yet.

Marquette Beats UConn: Is It Enough?

The Marquette Golden Eagles won a tough road game, beating #10 Connecticut in overtime 74-67. But is it enough to put the Eagles in the NCAA tournament?

Marquette's overall résumé didn't look good before yesterday. Their RPI was a dismal 69 and their RealWins—a composite of a team's victories over the season—was even worse, at #85. Only 17-11 against Division One opponents, the best stat they could claim is an even 7-7 record in the tough Big East. All of this put them at #74 in yesterday's Dance Chance, well outside the bubble, with just an estimated 13.1% chance to make the tournament.

Still, the majority of bracket pundits already had the Eagles in the mix, at an 11-seed. The most common justification for seeding Marquette was a trio of wins over #22 West Virginia, #7 Notre Dame, and #15 Syracuse. But those were really Marquette's only significant wins at all; their pre-conference slate is riddled with terrible opponents as well as Duke, Gonzaga, and Wisconsin, none of whom they beat. Another rationale given was that 9 of the Eagles' 11 losses were to ranked teams, and in fact, 10 of the 11 teams to beat them are currently ranked by SportsRatings. But you get into the tournament based on who you beat, not how good the teams are that you lose to. The RPI ends up considering strength of schedule heavily, and the Eagles were not in good shape there.

The win over UConn changes a lot. It gives them a solid road win to point to (the other three big wins came at home) and boosts their numbers overall: the Eagles' RPI jumped today to 51, up 18 spots from yesterday. And their RealWins ranking improved even more, zooming up 24 slots to #61. Overall their Dance Chance score for today would be 41.4%, a "First Four" level showing, up from 13.1%. This reflects the importance of beating top 50 (moreso top 25) opponents, and that fact that it was a road game might be particularly important for Marquette. The Eagles go from a long shot to a bubble team in one day.

With an 8-7 Big East record Marquette would be the 11th team chosen from that conference, three more than had ever been selected from a single league. That doesn't make it more difficult per sé—one of the things the committee says which I believe is that they don't "count" the number of teams taken from a given conference—but there's a reason that 8 is the record so far; naturally the deeper you go in a conference the teams are going to have weaker arguments.

So although they're still at the bottom of the bubble according to the Dance Chance, their schedule bodes well for them. With games left against Providence, Cincinnati, and Seton Hall, the Eagles have a great opportunity to win out and finish 11-7, and that would put them in fantastic shape. Going 2-1 would mean they'd have work to do in the Big East tournament to seal the deal, and anything worse than that puts them outside looking in without a great tournament run.

Like UConn, Arizona Can't Close the Deal

Another ranked team—#19 Arizona—was upset on Thursday night as well. Both the Huskies and the Wildcats were looking to reach the elusive "100%" designation on the Dance Chance. In reality both teams are in the tournament by any measure, but the Dance Chance won't move them beyond 99.9% except under strict circumstances. A win by either would have iced it, but both lost close contests, with Arizona fading in the last few minutes to fall at USC, 65-57.

Arizona's résumé is solid in every area except in big wins, which they have very few of. Their RealWins ranking was just #23 through Wednesday, which is solid for making the tournament but pretty low for a team that was 23-4 and 12-2 in a major conference. The Wildcats needed a win to reach a 30.0 score, one of the requirements to be blessed with the "100%" tag in the Dance Chance. They'll have another shot on Saturday against UCLA.

SportsRatings #2 Pittsburgh did get a win, however, besting #22 West Virginia 71-58. The Panthers were #5 in yesterday's Dance Chance update making them the highest 2-seed, and this win probably temporarily pushes them to the competitive final 1-seed—for now. By Sunday that slot will probably go to Saturday's BYU-San Diego State winner, but Pitt will be in the running for a top seed the rest of the way.

#16 Florida beat Georgia 71-62; the Gators could be as high as a 2-seed come Selection Sunday, and they're currently the top 3-seed in the Dance Chance.

Dance Chance Update Feb. 24: Purdue a 2, UNC a 3

Proof that even beating cellar dwellers helps: Purdue beat Indiana and moved up to a 2-seed while North Carolina reached the 100% threshold as a 3-seed after beating North Carolina State.

At the top of the latest Dance Chance rankings, Kansas regained the top seed position as they rank #1 in both RPI and RealWins, with fellow 26-2 teams Duke and Ohio State following close behind.

BYU again flip-flopped with San Diego State and for now takes the final 1-seed. The Cougars are #2 in RPI and #6 in RealWins, while the Aztecs' RealWins ranking is mired in a tight group; they fell to #12 in that rubric, putting them at #6 overall. If either team beats the other twice (first on Saturday, then in the Mountain West tournament) I think a 1-seed is likely.

Pittsburgh is #5 and looking for a top seed, too. They lead the Big East which has 10 teams in the top 7 seeds; Notre Dame is a 3-seed, and former 2-seed Georgetown slips to a 3 with their loss to Cincinnati last night.

#	Team	Conference	Record (vs. Div I)	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	Dance Chance	Seed	Chg
1	Kansas	Big 12	26-2	11-2	1	1	100%	1
2	Duke	ACC	26-2	12-1	5	3	100%	1
3	Ohio St.	Big Ten	26-2	13-2	3	2	100%	1
4	Brigham Young	Mtn West	25-2	12-1	2	6	100%	1	+1
5	Pittsburgh	Big East	24-3	12-2	8	4	100%	2
6	San Diego St.	Mtn West	25-1	12-1	4	12	100%	2	-1
7	Texas	Big 12	24-4	12-1	9	9	100%	2
8	Purdue	Big Ten	23-5	12-3	7	7	100%	2	+1
9	Florida	SEC	21-5	10-2	12	8	100%	3
10	Notre Dame	Big East	22-5	11-4	10	11	100%	3
11	North Carolina	ACC	21-6	11-2	11	14	100%	3	+1
12	Georgetown	Big East	21-7	10-6	6	10	100%	3	-1

The other Big East teams are Syracuse and St. John's at 4-seeds; UConn and Louisville are 5-seeds; Villanova is a 6; and West Virginia and Cincinnati are 7-seed.

Four Big East teams are at 99.9%; Syracuse has been there for weeks, and they don't even have to beat Georgetown on Saturday to make it to 100% as long as some of their previous opponents win. Arizona needs to beat either USC or UCLA to reach 30.0 RealWins, and St. John's can seal the deal with a win over Villanova. UConn might reach 100% by beating Marquette, but Wisconsin, Louisville, and Xavier don't play again before Sunday. It's just a matter of time for these teams, but Utah State's RealWins score is low enough that they may or may not reach the magic number without winning the WAC tournament.

Big Winners/Losers

• After dropping 2 seeds last Sunday, Wisconsin jumps back up 2 seeds, from the highest 6-seed to a low 4-seed. They beat Penn State and Michigan since the last update and have two probable wins coming up against Northwestern and Indiana.
• Vanderbilt lost to Tennessee at home and slips from the lowest 4-seed to the highest 6-seed, going the opposite direction of Wisconsin.
• As noted, Cincinnati beat Georgetown on the Hoyas' home court, giving the Bearcats another big win. Since beating Louisville, Cincy has pulled themselves up from near-bubble territory and rise from a 9-seed to a 7-seed. They have three tough games left—UConn, Marquette, and Georgetown again—but are now looking very good with an 84.8% chance.
• UCLA fell to Cal on Sunday in overtime and it hurt the Bruins a lot as they fall from a 7- to a 10-seed. Their RPI and RealWins scores (#43 and #42) aren't very good at all, but they're still in good shape to make the tournament with a 10-4 Pac-10 record.

The Bubble

44	Florida St.	ACC	19-8	9-4	54	54	55.3	11
45	Michigan St.	Big Ten	15-11	8-7	38	51	54.5	12
46	Richmond	Atlantic 10	21-7	10-3	60	45	53.8	12
47	Minnesota	Big Ten	17-10	6-9	48	43	50.2	12
48	Cleveland St.	Horizon	21-6	12-4	37	39	48.3	12
49	Boston College	ACC	16-11	6-7	50	46	47.8	13	-1
50	Alabama	SEC	19-8	11-2	80	58	42.8	13
51	Southern Miss	C-USA	18-6	9-4	41	78	40.8	13
52	College of Charleston	Southern	22-7	14-2	60	52	40.3	13
53	Clemson	ACC	18-9	7-6	64	55	40.3	13	+
54	Virginia Tech	ACC	18-8	8-5	63	64	39.7
55	Dayton	Atlantic 10	19-9	7-6	56	50	34.9		-

The Big Ten becomes even more interesting. Michigan State has finally gotten over the hump with their road win at Minnesota, pushing them above 50% for the first time in weeks. This means that in all likelihood, even after conference tournament upsets are accounted for, the Spartans will be in the Big Dance.

Their gain is Minnesota's loss, as the Gophers' slide continues; they're now a definite bubble team at 50.2%. They've lost 6 of their last 7 and have Michigan, Northwestern, and Penn State left—all winnable games, certainly, but given their recent play the Gophers have to be worried. Winning two probably keeps them where they are, and needing a good Big Ten tournament performance.

Cleveland State's loss to Old Dominion in the Bracketbusters makes it all but official: the Horizon is a 1-bid league this year. Both they and College of Charleston are bubble teams if they lose in the conference tournaments, but that loss would probably sink them below the waterline.

Alabama continues their slow but steady upward march. Now an amazing 11-2 in the SEC, the Tide are still hampered by a terrible RPI and less-than-stellar RealWins ranking, and right now are looking like a play-in team. They have Mississippi, Florida, and Georgia left, which should help their RPI and beating Florida on the road would push them above the bubble for sure. Otherwise it's going to depend on their SEC conference tournament performance.

The ACC could end up with anywhere from 2 to 6 teams in the tournament. There's quite a gap between the top and bottom: Duke and North Carolina are 100% locks, while Florida State, Boston College, Clemson, and Virginia Tech are all bubble teams ranging from 55.3% to 39.7%. Clemson beat Miami on Sunday to edge out the Hokies and replace Dayton in the "first four" for now.

Does the Selection Committee Really Disregard What It Claims To Disregard?

As Selection Sunday approaches, the annual articles by the sportswriters who went through "Selection Sunday Bootcamp", we could call it, are appearing and telling us that, against all previous assumption, the committee doesn't even look at certain things.

But time and time again, the selections made seem to take exactly those things into consideration.

So who are we to believe? Shouldn't we believe the people who have gone through the process over those who haven't? But then again, shouldn't we believe our eyes, when we see certain teams with certain characteristics—reflecting certain biases—popping up time and time again?

We'll look at actual research done on the selections by the "Dance Card" folks (B. Jay Coleman and Allen K. Lynch), and add our own observations, to address some of these issues.

Here are the main points from Yahoo! Sports' Jason King's recent experience with the mock selection committee:

Point #1: The last 10-12 games don't count any more than other games

Actually we've been hearing this for a while now. The NCAA used to talk about how important this was, then a few years ago they reversed course and decided not to emphasize this point. But occasionally you still see talk about the importance of finishing strong, so there is at least the perception that the committee takes it into consideration.

But we believe this one is a myth. Over the years we've seen teams that have collapsed still get in the tournament despite that collapse if their overall record and résumé is good. In their research Coleman and Lynch didn't find "number of losses in last ten games" to be a significant factor as to whether a team makes the field.

Obviously losing a lot affects a team's seed, whether those losses occur early or late, and if it's due to an injury there are vague instructions for the committee on how they should think about that.

King uses the example of Minnesota still making the mock brackets as an example of a team on a slide still being selected. Our Dance Chance, which doesn't overweigh recent performance, still has the Gophers in even as they've slid further, based on other numbers.

Point #2: "Conference record – and conference strength – are irrelevant"

King uses the example of Alabama not making it in the mock brackets to prove that conference record (they were 9-2) and conference strength (they are in the SEC) are not relevant. But our Dance Chance does consider both of these factors and Alabama is only the last team selected as of last Sunday (a few weeks ago, when the mock bracketing took place, Alabama was not in the Dance Chance seedings).

There are a lot of factors considered and when a team is deficient in one area (such as RPI, or quality wins) it can override their solid numbers in another (doing well in a good conference). It doesn't mean that the other numbers aren't used. In fact, Coleman and Lynch found that conference RPI rank and conference wins and losses indeed were significant variables when they reviewed selections over the past ten years.

King writes "The strength or weakness of a conference is also not supposed to be considered or discussed" but saying you're not going to consider something, and keeping it to yourself, doesn't always mean things aren't considered. In a followup paper, Coleman and Lynch found statistical support for conference bias, something that has seemed pretty apparent over the years on an anecdotal basis.

Point #3: "Conference tournaments carry very little weight"

King's mock committee didn't elevate Washington for winning the (fake) Pac-10 tournament, and he was nonplussed that the others felt the conference tournaments "irrelevant." Well I wouldn't say they're irrelevant but it appears that these contests are considered on a game-by-game basis. If you beat strong teams, you get more quality wins, and that helps all your other numbers.

In the past, conference winners have benefitted in a big way. Look at UConn in 2004, who got a 1-seed after beating Pitt in the Big East final. UConn was 27-6 and Pitt 29-4, and if Pitt had won, they would have gotten the 1-seed for sure. So that game was basically for a top seed. In King's example, he wanted to move Washington past George Mason, an uninvolved third-party, and the rest of the committee balked. Apparently if there's a head-to-head comparison to make, the conference tournaments can have added importance, but for the most part they are what they should be: a bunch more games. This point should correctly read "conference tournaments carry very little extra weight, over and above the weight that those games naturally carry."

Point #4: The numbers drive the selections, and nothing else matters

King takes a detour to complain that Pitt was seeded above Texas despite Texas playing the best basketball in the country. The rest of the committee had Pitt ahead because they beat Texas head-to-head.

This almost seems like a personal matter between the mock bracketers. Again, the NCAA's vague guidelines mention "games missed by key players or coaches, travel difficulties, the emotional effects of specific games" as things to consider, and many things that I doubt any committee member actually does:

Each committee member independently evaluates a vast amount of information during the process to make individual decisions. It is these qualitative, quantitative and subjective opinions -- developed after hours of personal observations, discussion with coaches, directors of athletics and commissioners, and review and comparison of various data -- that each individual ultimately will determine their vote on all issues related to selections, seeding and bracketing.

Hours of discussion with coaches, athletic directors and commissioners are supposed to be taken into consideration? Let's face it, using the numbers is more fair. They might not be using the right numbers, but I don't want the selection committee talking to commissioners and ADs, and trying to factor in games missed by coaches. And travel difficulties? Do we erase Michigan State's blowout loss to Iowa because of the snowstorm that made getting there a chore? Do we need comparitive data on all teams' travel woes?

Point #5: "There are no biases or backdoor politics"

King mentions the now-famous rule: "to avoid bias, any time a discussion involves a team from a conference a certain committee member represents, that person must leave the room." But according to Coleman and Lynch, that doesn't matter: having a rep on the committee gets your team in more often than not having a rep. When they revised there system to integrate this information, the performance of their model increased.

It's not hard to imagine why. We are human and are affected by things even when we truly believe we aren't. Having a "friend" of a team in your close-knit group certainly could sway others' opinions, even if they're unaware. If we believe we know all that's going on inside our heads, we are sadly mistaken. Look at this study, for example, at the top of today's NY Times most-read articles, showing that men rate women based on their fertility level, which they can subliminally detect.

Based on how many tricks our minds play on us moment to moment, I'd almost bet that it would be more fair to keep the "biased" representative in the room, and let him/her argue for his/her team's inclusion. The rest of the members would have the biased element right in their face, and realize that it was affecting their decision.

Point #6: A team's "story" is irrelevant

King notes that Butler gets no pass as last year's runner-up, Gonzaga isn't boosted because they've been in so often, Baylor isn't helped by individual star players, and potential matchups down the road aren't considered when making the brackets.

I believe all of this, but it sure seems like a few teams have gotten in when they shouldn't, just because they always have, like Arizona a few years ago. I wouldn't doubt that when it comes down to the last few teams in, bias creeps back in. But who knows.

Adding it all up

King mentions that he "chuckled" after the mock selection run when he heard analysts on tv talking about conference record and a team's last 10 games. "As you now know, neither of those factors are considered in the selection process."

But even if they aren't used officially, those factors can make their way into the process. As we saw, conference record is a statistically significant factor for selection. As for a team's last 10 games, though that will not make or break a team's selection, those games are almost certainly against tougher opponents that their first 10 games, so they have more impact on numbers that do matter like RPI and wins against top 50 opponents. Therefore, using both of those as "shortcuts" to guess whether a team will get in is not necessarily ignorant. If I were to discuss a Big Six team, conference record is certainly one of the things to note, as it gives a quick snapshot of how a team has performed against mostly solid competition.

And as we look at various pundits' brackets, there are always the odd choices and outliers. Every bracket has them: teams seeded too high, or too low, or teams left out or included that seem bizarre. I'm sure King's mock committee brackets had some—he even mentions some that bugged him.

So despite the NCAA's efforts to educate the press and public about bracket selection, they are never going to convince people that the brackets that come out of Selection Sunday are the way things should be, because there will be a few quirks in those brackets, too. It's inevitable. And although they can convince the mock participants that certain things aren't figured into the process, the problem with bias is that it often creeps in unknown to those that it affects. In a human-based process, there's no way to know with 100% certainty what is being considered and what isn't.

I just hope fertility level is not involved in the selection process in any way.

SportsRatings Top 25 Week 15 (February 21): Does Anyone Want To Be #1?

What do you do when so many top ten teams lose in the same week? You can try to move teams up and down like the AP, or you can take a step back and decide which teams really belong on top of the rankings. And looked at from the perspective of the entire season, the teams that were #1 and #2 last week deserve to stay there despite losing. It makes sense to look at teams by pairs this week.

Ohio State remains #1 despite losing for the 2nd straight week. Neither loss was awful; both were to top teams on the road. The Buckeyes are still on top of our combined power rating and have the best résumé best among the 2-3 loss teams. Pittsburgh stays at #2; the Panthers have six top 25 wins and would have been #1 if they hadn't lost to St. John's by a point. So why drop them below #2?

Brigham Young is one of the few top teams that didn't lose and has an argument for #1; the Cougars have three top 25 wins but both losses are to unranked teams. They do move up to #3 since they have a win over San Diego State and the 27-1 Aztecs lose their only top 25 win with St. Mary's departure.

At #5 and #6 Duke and Kansas have identical 25-2 records and nearly identical résumés. Duke has a small edge in both our Strength and Success power ratings so we give #5 to the Blue Devils.

#7 Notre Dame lost to West Virginia, a ranked team, while #8 Texas lost to unranked Nebraska. That, and the fact that Texas has only one top 25 win to Notre Dame's six makes the ordering pretty easy.

Georgetown and Connecticut both have six losses but all are to top 25 teams. The Hoyas have 5 top 25 wins to UConn's four. The Huskies beat the Hoyas last week but then they lost to Louisville, so we keep Georgetown #9 and Connecticut #10.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 15 (2-21-2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses to unranked teams in red; Top 25 wins in green
1	1	Ohio St	25-2	L@Wisc-4, @Purdue-13; wPurdue+23, @FLA+18
2	2	Pittsburgh	24-3	L Tenn-7, ND-5, @St.Johns-1  wSyr+8, UConn+15, =Texas+2, @Gtown+15, @Vill+3, @WVa+5
4	3	Brigham Young	25-2	L@UCLA -7, @NMex-9; wSDSU+13, Ariz+22, UtahSt+6
3	4	San Diego St	27-1	L@BYU-13
8	5	Duke	25-2	L@FSU-5, @St.Johns-15; wUNC+6
5	6	Kansas	25-2	L@KState-16, Texas-11; wAriz+8
7	7	Notre Dame	21-5	L@Marq-22, @St.John-18, @UK-14, @Syr-12, @WVa-14  w@Pitt+5, UConn+3, =Wisc+7, Gtown+14, Lou+ot, St.John+15
6	8	Texas	23-4	L@USC-17, @Neb-3, =Pitt-2, UConn-ot; w@Kansas+11
9	9	Georgetown	21-6	L@Temple-3, @St.John-3, @ND-14, WVA-6, Pitt-15, @UConn-8  w@Vill+3, Lou+3, @Syr+8, St.John+25, UtahSt+17
10	10	Connecticut	20-6	L@St.Johns-17, @Pitt-15, @ND-3, Lou-ot, @Lou-13, Syr-8  w=UK+17, Vill+1, @Texas+ot, Gtown+8
12	11	Villanova	21-6	L@Prov-15, @Rut-1, =Tenn-10, Pitt-4, @UConn-1, Gtown-3  w@Syr+11, Lou+14, WVA+16, Temple+4
18	12	Purdue	22-5	L=Richmond-11, @Minn-3, @WVA-4, @OSU-23, @Wisc-7; wOSU+13, Wisc+8
13	13	Kentucky	19-7	L@Bama-2, @GA-7, @Miss-2, @UNC-2, @FL-1, =UConn-17, @Vandy-4  w=Wash+7, ND+14, @Lou+15
14	14	Louisville	20-7	L@Drexel-6, @Prov-5, @Cincy-9, UK-15, @Vill-14, @Gtown-3, @ND-ot  w@UConn+ot, UConn+13, WVA+1, Syr+4, St.John+25
16	15	Syracuse	22-6	L Seton-22, @Marq-6, Gtown-8, @Lou-4, @Pitt-8, Vill-11  wND+12, UConn+8, St.John+17, WVa+11
15	16	Florida	21-5	@MissSt-7, @UCF-3, Jacks-ot, SC-3, OhioSt-18; wUK+2, Vandy+ot
11	17	Wisconsin	20-6	L@ILL-8, @MichSt-ot, @PennSt-4, @UNLV-3, =ND-7, @Purdue-8  wOSU+4, Purdue+7
17	18	Vanderbilt	20-6	L Ark-11, @SCar-ot, @Mizz-ot, @Tenn-3, =WVA-3, @FL-ot; w=UNC-7, UK+4
21	19	Arizona	23-4	L@OreSt-2, =Kansas-8, @BYU-22, @Wash-17; wWash+1
24	20	St. John's	17-9	L@Ford-3, St.Bon-1, Cincy-2, @UCLA-7, @St.Mary-5, @ND-15, @Syr-17, @Lou-25, @Gtown-25 w@WVa+10, Gtown+3, ND+18, Duke+15, UConn+17, Pitt+1
23	21	North Carolina	20-6	L@GTech-20, =Minn-5, @ILL-12, =Vandy-7, Tex-2, @Duke-6; wUK+2
22	22	West Virginia	17-9	L=Minn-4, @Miami-3, @Marq-5, =Marsh-4, St.John-10, @Lou-1, @Vill-16, Pitt-5, @Syr-11  wPurdue+4, @Gtown+6, ND+14
20	23	Washington	18-8	L@OreSt-12, @Ore-5, =MichSt-5, @TexAM-1, @Stanf-2, @WashSt-7, =UK-7, @Ariz-1  wAriz+17
25	24	Temple	21-5	L=Cal-7, =TexAM-3, @Duq-12, @Xav-11, @Vill-4; wGtown+3
--	25	Utah State	25-3	L@Idaho-8, @BYU-6, @Gtown-17
		out:
19	--	St. Mary's	22-6	L@SanDiego-8, @Port-15, UtahSt-10, =BYU-1, @SDSU-14, @Vandy-19; wSt.John+5

Villanova moves up to #11 followed by Purdue, who had a huge week gaining their first two top 25 wins including a victory over top-ranked Ohio State. Both wins were at home.

Kentucky and Louisville remain at #13 and #14. The Wildcats won two conference games, while Louisville lost to Cincinnati but rebounded to beat UConn.

Neither team lost, but Syracuse passes Florida at #15. The Orange beat West Virginia and have four top 25 wins to Florida's two; the Gators' best wins were by two points over Kentucky and in overtime over Vanderbilt, both at home.

And as Wisconsin falls to #17 to their loss to Purdue they push Vanderbilt down a spot to #18; both teams have six losses, four to unranked teams, and two top 25 win, but Wisconsin's wins over Purdue and Ohio State are better than Vandy's.

Arizona and St. John's are interesting cases. 23-4 Arizona gets their first top 25 win—by a point—over Washington, and moves up to #19. St. John's get their sixth top 25 win—and their fifth over a top ten team—by beating Pittsburgh; they're up to #20 despite having nine losses.

North Carolina moves up to #21; #22 West Virginia beat Notre Dame but lost to Syracuse. Washington falls to #23 with their 8th loss. Temple moves up a slot to #24, and since Utah State kicked St. Mary's out of the top 25 it's only fitting that they enter. Actually, lowly San Diego would have kicked the Gaels out regardless of the outcome of the Bracketbusters matchup, but the Aggies have earned their way in at 25-3.

Purdue Beats Ohio State, Final Score: 76-63; Kansas, Texas, Pittsburgh All Lost, So Who is #1?

#18 Purdue beat #1 Ohio State 76-63 in West Lafayette Sunday behind E'Tuan Moore's 38 points, handing the Buckeyes their 2nd loss in two week and giving the Boilermakers their 2nd top 10 win since last Sunday.

With AP #1 Kansas losing to Kansas State on Monday, AP #2 Ohio State losing today, #3 Texas falling to Nebraska and #4 Pittsburgh dropping a game to St. John's yesterday, the top four teams in the AP top 25 lost in the same week. So which team will be #1?

At #5, Duke hosts Georgia Tech today, while #6 and #7 San Diego State and BYU of the Mountain West won their games this week. Will the Blue Devils jump to #1, a position they haven't held since they lost to top spot? And if they lose, could one of the Mountain West teams actually make the jump to the top?

In the SportsRatings top 25, Ohio State was #1, followed by Pitt, SDSU, BYU, Kansas, and Texas. So the Big Twelve teams are pretty much out of the running, while the Mountain West teams are very much in it. Duke is just #8 behind #7 Notre Dame—who also lost this week, by the way.

Which team is playing the best? Duke is #1 in the Strength Power Rating right now, just ahead of Kansas and Ohio State. In terms of Success—beating good teams and not losing to bad ones—Ohio State is still on top, with Pitt #2 and Notre Dame #3. The Mountain West teams and Texas aren't in the top three in either power rating, and in the combined power rating it's Ohio State, Pitt, and Notre Dame, just as in Success.

But our top 25 is based largely on wins over other top 25 opponents. So it depends on who stays in and who falls out—and that is going to hurt San Diego State and BYU. Both claim wins over #19 St. Mary's, who lost twice this week and is certain to fall out. This means that the Aztecs have no top 25 wins, which at this stage pretty much prohibits them from being #1 despite their 27-1 record.

BYU holds wins over San Diego State and #21 Arizona. At 25-2, the Cougars could make the leap to #1. Of the teams that didn't lose this week, they edge Duke who has only defeated #23 North Carolina.

Pitt and Notre Dame have the best slate of wins by far, with both having defeated six top 25 teams. Kansas and Texas have one top 25 win each, and Ohio State has two.

In terms of losses San Diego State is in the best shape: one loss, to a top five foe. Ohio State has now lost twice, both times to top 25 opponents. Duke and Kansas have lost to a one ranked and one unranked team each; Pitt has lost twice to ranked and once to unranked opponents; and BYU's two losses are both to unranked teams. Texas now has four losses (two to unranked teams) and Notre Dame has five (two unranked).

In head-to-head games among the top 8, BYU is 1-0, Notre Dame is 1-0 (beat Pitt), Pitt is 1-1 (beat Texas), Texas is 1-1 (beat Kansas), Kansas and San Diego State are 0-1, and Ohio State and Duke are 0-0.

Post-Bracketbusters Dance Chance: Utah State Up, St. Mary's Down

With 56 of 57 Bracketbusters games complete, just a few contests had a major effect on the NCAA field. The big game was Utah State's road defeat of St. Mary's, which capped off a terrible half-week for the Gaels.

St. Mary's fell at last-place WCC team San Diego 74-66, then lost at home to the Aggies by an almost identical score, 75-65. This sent the Gaels plunging four rungs to an 11-seed. Since Tuesday their RPI fell from #31 to #46 and their RealWins ranking dropped from #47 to #53 as other winning teams passed them. Their Dance Chance score dropped from 82.3% to 62.0%, and the Gaels are now in danger of missing the Big Dance if they don't win the WCC tournament, especially considering they have two tough games against Gonzaga and Portland left in the regular season.

Meanwhile Utah State is nearly guaranteed an at-large big if they need it. Their RPI is up to #18 and their RealWins ranking is up to #27. They gain two seedings to a 4-seed, which is well above what most bracketologists project but I really doubt they'll be left out altogether at this point. They still aren't near 30.0 RealWins and with the WAC looking weak this year there is a lot of variance as to what their seed will be. The win over St. Mary's helps a lot, however.

The other big trend from Bracketbusters is the poor performance of the Missouri Valley conference. The MVC went 3-7 with top teams Missouri State, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Indiana State, Creighton, and Evansville all losing. Only the first three were in play for tournament bids, and all fell: the Bears dropped a seed, the Shockers dropped two seeds, and the Panthers' Dance Chance fell from 30.4% to 14.1%. The teams that beat them were Valparaiso, VCU, and George Mason; the latter is clearly in right now, while the former two are just below the bubble with about a 1 in 3 chance after their wins.

Top Seeds Lose, Causing Re-Shuffle

#	Team	Conference	Record (vs. Div I)	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	Dance Chance	Seed	Chg
1	Ohio St.	Big Ten	25-1	12-1	3	3	100%	1
2	Kansas	Big 12	25-2	10-2	1	1	100%	1
3	San Diego St.	Mtn West	25-1	12-1	3	6	100%	1	+1
4	Duke	ACC	24-2	11-1	6	7	100%	1
5	Brigham Young	Mtn West	24-2	11-1	2	5	100%	2
6	Pittsburgh	Big East	24-3	12-2	8	2	100%	2	-1
7	Texas	Big 12	23-4	11-1	7	10	100%	2

Aside from the Bracketbusters there were a lot of big upsets among the top teams. Kansas had already lost their overall #1 seed to Ohio State last Wednesday's update, and since then Pittsburgh and Texas both lost. With Pitt's RPI down to #8 they fell three spots in the tight rankings, losing their #1 seed for now. Texas fell just one spot, remaining a 2-seed.

Oddly it was San Diego State, not Duke or BYU, who jumped all the way to #3, becoming a 1-seed along with Ohio State, Kansas, and Duke. The Aztecs won two games, beating New Mexico and Air Force, since Tuesday and their RPI and RealWins rankings are just one spot behind BYU in both categories. Next Saturday is their 2nd showdown.

Note that this update doesn't include the Ohio State-Purdue game, currently in progress! The Boilermakers join the 100% this update, while Arizona, North Carolina, Utah State, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, St. John's, and Connecticut are on the verge. The former three need to reach 30.0 RealWins while the latter need better records or a higher RPI to end any mathematical chance of failing to get a bid.

Other Big Movers/Changes

• Wisconsin's fall of two seeds isn't significant; they lost to Purdue and fell from a low 4-seed to a high 6-seed.
• Texas A&M won two games and jumped two seeds to a healthy 7-seed. The Aggies are 20-5, 8-4 in the Big Twelve and have strong RPI and RealWins numbers.
• Cincinnati's up-and-down seed is up this week, as the Bearcats won two Big East games recently, one of them a win over Louisville. They moved from a 12-seed to a high 9-seed.
• Belmont of the Atlantic Sun is up to a weak 10-seed and looks more and more like an at-large if they lose their tournament final. Their Dance Chance is up to 64.2%, with an overall 25-4 record and 17-1 conference tally. Their RPI (56) needs work, though.
• Minnesota is falling to bubble level while Michigan State rises to it. The Gophers lost to Penn State, who is just off the bubble themselves, while the Spartans beat Illinois. Minnesota has lost five of their last six and their bid could be in danger if they don't pull out of their slump.

Speaking of the Bubble...

48	Michigan St.	Big Ten	14-11	7-7	41	62	43.8	12	+
49	Richmond	Atlantic 10	20-7	9-3	67	52	42.9	12
50	Dayton	Atlantic 10	19-9	7-6	55	45	38.6	12	+
51	College of Charleston	Southern	21-7	13-2	62	51	37.9	13	+1
52	Southern Miss	C-USA	18-6	9-4	44	80	37.8	13	+
53	Alabama	SEC	18-8	10-2	77	66	37.5	13	+
54	Virginia Tech	ACC	17-8	7-5	64	64	36.9		-
55	Penn St.	Big Ten	14-11	7-7	61	55	35.6
56	Colorado St.	Mtn West	17-8	8-4	49	70	35.1		-

A lot of the bubble is Big Ten, with Michigan State regaining their NCAA bid status—barely—and avoiding the play-in games even. But remember that conference tournament upsets aren't accounted for, and will probably push 4-5 teams off the bubble. With MSU's Dance Chance under 50%, it probably means that right now they aren't in. Penn State, as mentioned, still has some hope, holding the same records as the Spartans but a much lower RPI.

Dayton joints Atlantic 10 conference mate Richmond on the bubble, and in this ranking would actually play them to became a 12-seed! I think in this situation the committee would slide the Flyers down a notch and have Southern Miss play for the 12, pitting Dayton against Alabama for the 13. The Tide have just now reached bubble level despite leading the SEC at 10-2. The problem has been their very weak RPI, which is still at prohibitive levels, though their RealWins score is looking better these days.

Teams that fall off the bubble include Virginia Tech (lost to Virginia yesterday) and Colorado State (lost to UNLV), while Oklahoma State and Washington State fell way off the bubble by losing twice each in the last four days. This means the Big Ten (6 teams), SEC (6), Atlantic 10 (4), and C-USA (3) all gain a team while the Big Twelve (5), ACC (4), Mountain West (3), and Pac 10 (3) each lose one.

Nebraska (who upset Texas) saw their chances back from the dead and now has a 32.5% chance of making it as an at-large; their 18-8 overall and 6-6 Big Twelve record are borderline, while their RPI and RealWins are in the 60s, so they'll need another marquee win to put them over the hump.

A Few Conference "Auto-Bid" Changes

The Ivy League has a tight contest going on for the #1 team, and this one isn't decided by a tournament. Princeton lost at Brown—the Tigers' fourth road game in a row—and fell 1/2 game behind Harvard in the standings. Their head-to-head win over the Crimson is irrelevant, both for the fact that the two play again and because any conference tie is decided by a one-game playoff. In the Dance Chance, Harvard gets the nod by a hair, with a 1-game better overall record and a higher RPI offsetting Princeton's much better RealWins score (mainly due to beating Harvard). The two face off again in March and that should decide the Ivy rep; the loser will hit the NIT.

The other auto-bid switch (we just use the highest Dance Chance rather than projecting the tourney winner) is in the Ohio Valley, where Morehead State takes over from Murray State who lost to 9-19 Southeast Missouri State before beating Evansville in the Bracketbusters. Morehead has won nine in a row including their own Bracketbusters win over a MVC school (Indiana State). The two play this coming Thursday so the conference lead will be decided then.

Louisville tops UConn; VCU beats Wichita in Bracketbusters

The Big East merry-go-round continued with #14 Louisville beating #10 Connecticut 71-58 Friday night. The win puts Louisville into a tie for 3rd place with Georgetown at 9-5 in conference, and UConn falls into a tie for 7th place at 8-6.

Just a few nights ago UConn seemed to have gotten back on the right track by beating Georgetown Wednesday night, while on that same night Louisville fell victim to Cincinnati. But just like in those games, the home team prevailed on Friday. Kemba Walker managed only 16 points compared to the 33 he scored against the Hoyas. Standout Cardinal guard Peyton Siva had 17.

Bracketbusters kicks off with VCU win

The 57-game Bracketbusters series kicked off last night with two games; the only important one matched Colonial Athletic bubble team Virginia Commonwealth at Missouri Valley leader Wichita State. VCU edged Wichita 58-57 as the Shockers missed a last second three-pointer.

The Rams were clearly on the wrong side of the bubble before the game, with a 29.1% Dance Chance at #63 in that ranking. Now 21-8, VCU is tied for 2nd at 12-4 in the CAA. Their RealWins ranking was #36 which is very good, and their RPI is now #57 which is bubble territory. With two games left it's still going to be tough for VCU, but they're definitely on low-bubble zone after the win.

For Wichita State the loss drops them to 21-6 overall. The Shockers were perhaps a low 8-seed and they might be a high 10-seed now after losing at home. They're still on top of the MVC, tied with Missouri State who plays Valparaiso today in their own Brackbusters game. Wichita State has two games left, including a road game against Missouri State. They're still in good shape if they need an at-large big, but nothing's guaranteed and they'll probably need a few more wins between the regular season and MVC tournament to make it.

Today's televised Bracketbusters games, all on ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU:

11am   Hofstra at Wright State
1pm    Austin Peay at Fairfield
3pm    Iona at Liberty
5pm    Missouri State at Valparaiso
5pm    Vermont at College of Charleston
7pm    George Mason at Northern Iowa
9pm    Utah State at St. Mary's
11pm   Montana at Long Beach State
Sunday 1pm Cleveland State at Old Dominion

The best game is tonight, Utah State vs. St. Mary's. The Gaels are in the SportsRatings Top 25, and Utah State is in the AP top 25. That game, along with Cleveland State vs. Old Dominion on Sunday, are the only contests between teams that currently look like strong at-large bids. Missouri State vs. Valpo is probably the third best, as the Bears are firmly in the tournament right now and Valparaiso still has hope just outside the bubble.

Vermont and College of Charleston, as well as Montana and Long Beach State, will probably all be in the tournament as conference champs, so those comparisons may be useful come tournament time. George Mason is clearly in the tournament while Northern Iowa still has some hope. The other three games, however (the first three listed) don't have much importance.

Comparisons of Top Ten Teams: Kansas-Texas, BYU-SDSU, Pitt-Notre Dame

In most of the major conferences, it's pretty clear who the top-rated team should be:

• In the ACC, Duke is 26-2 overall and has defeated 19-6 North Carolina
• Ohio State leads the Big Ten by two games and is 25-1
• Arizona is on a tear in the Pac-10 and is 22-4 overall
• In the SEC, Florida is 9-2 and 20-5 overall

There's room for debate, however, in the Big East, Big Twelve, and at the top of mid-major Mountain West. Should Kansas or Texas be ranked higher? Could Notre Dame be as deserving of a 1-seed as Pitt? And who gets the nod between BYU and San Diego State? All six teams are consensus top tenWe'll look at today's power rating updates and see who gets the nod.

Record - conference and overall

In the Big Twelve, Kansas holds the edge in overall record, 24-2 to 23-3, but the Longhorns are 11-0 in conference to the Jayhawks 9-2. The Mountain West edge goes to San Diego State, at 26-1 and 11-1 to BYU's 24-2 and 10-1. And the Big East is all Pittsburgh; the Panthers are 24-2 to Notre Dame's 21-4 and lead the Irish by two conference games.

Strength Power Rating

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Duke                      24-2     25.11
2.  Ohio St.                  25-1     24.68
3.  Kansas                    24-2     24.49
4.  Texas                     23-3     21.86
5.  Washington                18-7     21.81
6.  Brigham Young             24-2     21.69
7.  Pittsburgh                24-2     21.43

Kansas and Texas are neck-and-neck at #3 and #4 in today's Strength Power Rating update, but the Jayhawks are almost three points ahead despite the closeness in ranking. Brigham Young is #6 while San Diego State is just #11, and the biggest difference is between #7 Pittsburgh and #21 Notre Dame. So far Pittsburgh is ahead of Notre Dame no matter how you look at it. But...

Head-to-head—and Success Power Rating

When we look at how these teams have performed head-to-head, things change. And the Success Power Rating reflects this pecking order pretty well.

Texas beat Kansas in Lawrence, 74-63, giving the Longhorns a good argument that they're the better team. At home, BYU handled San Diego State 71-58. And Notre Dame, playing at Pitt, beat the Panthers 56-51.

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Ohio St.                  25-1     45.02
2.  Notre Dame                21-4     40.64
3.  Pittsburgh                24-2     39.32
4.  San Diego St.             26-1     30.41
5.  Brigham Young             24-2     28.68
6.  Texas                     23-3     26.63
7.  Duke                      24-2     25.15
8.  Kansas                    24-2     23.06

Though the Success Power Rating doesn't algorithm doesn't specifically weigh head-to-head encounters, but they naturally take on importance. Score margin isn't considered but game location is, and the road wins give Texas and Notre Dame a boost: Texas is #6 to Kansas' #8, while Notre Dame is #2 and Pittsburgh #3. #4 San Diego State is still one spot ahead of #5 BYU, with the Cougars gaining a bit less (and SDSU suffering a bit less) for beating the Aztecs at home.

Overall Power Rating: Adding It All Up

Considering all the factors—record, conference record, schedule strength, head-to-head, game location—can be confusing, but the Overall Power Rating—the Strength and Success ratings combined—orders the teams like this:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Ohio St.                  25-1     69.70
2.  Pittsburgh                24-2     60.76
3.  Notre Dame                21-4     57.42
4.  Brigham Young             24-2     50.37
5.  Duke                      24-2     50.27
6.  San Diego St.             26-1     49.02
7.  Texas                     23-3     48.49
8.  Kansas                    24-2     47.55

All three pairs of teams are very close, but Texas, Pitt, and BYU are ranked higher than their counterparts, and I think logic backs this up.

• Texas gets the edge for their undefeated Big Twelve record, and head-to-head win at Kansas
• Pittsburgh, despite their loss at home to Notre Dame, is in control of the Big East, and overall has played better basketball
• Though things could change after they play in San Diego, Brigham Young deserves the nod over San Diego State for now, mainly due to their head-to-head win.

Currently in the AP top 25, Kansas is ahead of Texas (though the Jayhawks 2nd loss occurred after that ranking), San Diego State is ahead of BYU, and Pitt is well ahead of Notre Dame. SportsRatings' latest top 25 has the teams in the same order:

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 14 (2-14-2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Top 25 wins; losses
1	1	Ohio St	24-1	L@Wisc-4; wPurdue+23, @FLA+18
3	2	Pittsburgh	23-2	L Tenn-7, ND-5; wSyr+8, UConn+15, =Texas+2, @Gtown+15, @Vill+3, @WVa+5
2	3	San Diego St	25-1	L@BYU-13; wStMary+14
4	4	Brigham Young	24-2	L@UCLA -7, @NMex-9; wSDSU+13, StMary+1, Ariz+22
5	5	Kansas	24-1	L Texas-11; wAriz+8
6	6	Texas	22-3	L@USC-17, =Pitt-2, UConn-ot; w@Kansas+11
7	7	Notre Dame	21-4	L@Marq-22, @St.John-18, @UK-14, @Syr-12;  w@Pitt+5, UConn+3, =Wisc+7, Gtown+14, Lou+ot, St.John+15

BYU-San Diego State is the toughest call; the Cougars have more top 25 wins including the head-to-head, but they've lost twice to non-top 25 teams. We'll have to wait until February 26—and maybe the Mountain West tournament—to sort that one out.

Purdue, UConn Punch Tickets With Wins; St. Mary's Looks Ahead and Falls

Purdue became the latest team to reach 100% in the Dance Chance, meaning they are a lock for the tournament under any future circumstances, and it looks like Connecticut will join them in the next update as well.

#18 Purdue beat #11 Wisconsin 70-62 to raise their RealWins score over 30.0, while #10 UConn beat #9 Georgetown, 78-70 in a game that was much closer until the final minute and ended the Hoyas 8-game Big East winning streak.

Upsets: Cincy top Louisville, St. Mary's falls to San Diego

Cincinnati's faltering NCAA hopes got a huge boost as the Bearcats beat #14 Louisville, 63-54. Cincy's decline was due mostly to their easy pre-conference schedule, while made their RPI and RealWins scores poor despite their even Big East record. But this win should keep them from falling onto the bubble, at least for a while.

#19 St. Mary's was undoubtedly looking ahead to their Bracketbusters game against Utah State when they traveled to San Diego. The Gaels were 22-4 and the Toreros just 5-21 (3-21 against Division I) before the game, but San Diego was a 74-66 winner.

The loss will knock St. Mary's down a seed or two, but they can recover by beating Utah State, who manhandled NAIA Montana Western, 100-66, last night. Expect a St. Mary's win on Saturday, though; that's the kind of thing that seems to happen in cases like this.

Dance Chance Update 2/16: Duke a #1 seed, OSU top overall

Kansas' loss to Kansas State knocked the Jayhawks out of the overall top seed designation, putting Ohio State back at #1 in the latest Dance Chance. In other developments at the top, Duke passed a number of teams to claim the elusive 4th #1 seed...for now.

Though Kansas ended up staying at #1 in the RPI and fell only to #2 in RealWins, the Jayhawks 2nd loss dropped them below the Buckeyes, who rallied to beat Michigan State last night. The Spartans were looking for a marquee win like the one Kansas State got by beating Kansas but couldn't get it.

Pittsburgh is a consensus #1 seed but the 4th top seed is a big question mark. Texas is still the overall favorite among bracketologists, but in our Dance Chance it's Duke that leaps into the #4 spot with their Sunday win over Miami. In the crowded 2-seed area, that's all it took to pass San Diego State, Texas, and BYU, pushing the Cougars to a 2-seed. Again, this area is volatile and any of the top 7 could be a 1-seed in the coming weeks. Perhaps even #8 Notre Dame is in play; if two teams from the Big Twelve are being considered, why not a 2nd Big East team in the mix?

The current top 8 (#1 and #2 seeds) from the February 16 Dance Chance (games through Feb. 15):

#	Team	Conference	Record (vs. Div I)	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	Dance Chance	Seed	Chg
1	Ohio St.	Big Ten	25-1	12-1	3	1	100%	1
2	Kansas	Big 12	24-2	9-2	1	2	100%	1
3	Pittsburgh	Big East	23-2	11-1	6	3	100%	1
4	Duke	ACC	23-2	10-1	7	8	100%	1	+1
5	Brigham Young	Mtn West	23-2	10-1	2	7	100%	2	-1
6	Texas	Big 12	22-3	10-0	8	11	100%	2
7	San Diego St.	Mtn West	23-1	10-1	4	10	100%	2
8	Notre Dame	Big East	21-4	10-3	9	6	100%	2

Just below the 2-seed line, Florida and Georgetown are 100% locks for the tournament. They Hoyas are in the top 5 in both RPI and RealWins, and they could be in the running for a top seed if they win the Big East tournament.

Purdue, North Carolina, Arizona, Syracuse, and Wisconsin are virtual locks at 99.9%. The Boilermakers host the Badgers tonight and a win will put them over the hump. A Wisconsin win might do the same, though they have yet to reach a 30.0 score in RealWins.

One team that has reached the sufficient RealWins is—surprisingly—George Mason. The Patriots don't have any wins over top teams but the Colonial Athletic conference is good enough this year that their 22 wins translate to 30.2 RealWins. By comparison, Utah State has 23 Div-I wins but they count for only 22.6 in RealWins. The Aggies won't help their tally any tonight as they play NAIA team Montana Western, but on Saturday they face St. Mary's in a Bracketbusters contest.

St. John's moves up two seeds to a #5, putting them up with the elite Big East teams. Their win over Marquette last night knocked the Golden Eagles to 15-11 and #73 in the list, with just an 18% chance to make the tournament. Wichita State also moved up 2 seeds also; the Shockers are now 22-5 overall and 13-3 in the Missouri Valley. They're neck and neck with Missouri State for the top team in the league.

The big seed mover since Saturday is, of course, Kansas State. A bubble team on Sunday's list, the Wildcats put a lot of doubt behind them with a dominant win over Kansas. They jump from a 13-seeded, play-in team to a 10-seed, with a much healthier RPI and RealWins score. Their conference record is still losing (5-6) but things are looking way up for their at-large chances. Conversely, Michigan State—another high ranker in the pre-season—is in bad shape at #57. We give them about a 1 in 3 chance of recovery, and their remaining schedule doesn't help.

47	Virginia Tech	ACC	17-7	7-4	59	50	51.8	12	+
48	Richmond	Atlantic 10	20-6	9-2	69	45	50.7	12
49	Cleveland St.	Horizon	20-5	11-4	38	37	49.6	12
50	Princeton	Ivy League	18-4	7-0	52	79	43.5	13
51	Colorado St.	Mtn West	16-7	7-3	44	69	42.1	13	-1
52	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	16-8	4-6	55	58	39.7	13
53	Washington St.	Pac-10	17-8	7-6	74	52	36.4	13	+
54	Valparaiso	Horizon	17-7	11-3	51	48	35.2
55	Texas El Paso	C-USA	18-5	7-2	53	85	35.0		-
56	Butler	Horizon	18-9	11-5	43	28	34.3
57	Michigan St.	Big Ten	13-11	6-7	46	71	33.4

Bubble Report: Virginia Swaps Out Teams

Two Virginia teams crossed paths going opposite directions as per their NCAA tournament odds. Virginia Tech is on the way up, jumping from 29% to 52% after beating Georgia Tech and Maryland since our last update. The wins put the Hokies at 17-7 overall and 7-4 in conference. Their RPI (#59) needs some help, and their RealWins rank (#50) is in bubble territory, but for now they're on the high side of the bubble.

Virginia Commonwealth is going the other way, falling off the bubble with back to back losses. The Rams fell to George Mason last night, making the Colonial Athletic a 2-bid conference (the Patriots and Old Dominion). VCU could get back on the bubble with a Bracketbusters win over Wichita State on Friday.

The only other switch is mostly from noise, as UTEP falls a couple of slots leaving Washington State as the last team selected. This drops the C-USA to two teams and puts four teams in from the Pac-10. Virginia Tech's ascendancy give the ACC a total of five.

The Horizon League has a chance to have three teams in, but it's looking more and more like a 1-bid conference. Cleveland State is firmly on the bubble now, and at under 50% a loss in the conference tournament would probably mean they're out. Valparaiso and Butler remain at-large possibilities but both have their deficiencies and neither looks likely without a tournament win. Of the three, Butler doesn't play a Bracketbusters game; the Vikings face Old Dominion and Valpo plays Missouri State.

Another former bubble team that fell off is Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are still slated to win the Big South, but if they lose in the tournament their at-large chances are now very poor after taking their first conference loss. Their RPI plunged from 55 to 75 and their Dance Chance from 43% to 26%.

Kansas State Bounces Off Bubble with 84-68 Win Over AP #1 Kansas

No sooner had the Kansas Jayhawks taken over the top spot of the AP poll than they were defeated by in-state rival Kansas State, a marquee win the Wildcats desperately needed to energize their flagging NCAA tournament chances.

The Wildcats beat the Jayhawks in both halfs, 42-33 and 42-35, as Jacob Pullen lit up the Kansas defense for 38 points, hitting 5 of 6 three-pointers and 15 of 19 free throw attempts. The Jayhawks hit only three of 15 three attempts.

Kansas is only #5 in the SportsRatings Top 25, mostly due to lack of big-time wins. The Jayhawks have only defeated #21 Arizona out of the teams in the rankings, and lost to #6 Texas in the only other intra-top-25 game they've played. The Jayhawks were a narrow leader in a near three-way tie including Ohio State and Texas at the top of Monday's AP poll.

Kansas was also the top-ranked team in Sunday's Dance Chance update, with a #1 RPI and RealWins ranking; their RPI fell to #2 (behind BYU) with the loss and they will certainly lose their "overall top seed" designation in tomorrow's Dance Chance update. In our power ratings, Kansas was #4 overall, #1 in Strength but just #7 in Success. Last night's loss drops them to #8 overall, #3 in Strength and #9 in Success.

But the Jayhawks don't have to worry about making the tournament, of course—they only have to worry about getting a #1 seed. The Wildcats, however, were in a lot of trouble before last night. Their Dance Chance ranking put them firmly on the bubble at a 13-seed, and just a handful of conference tournament upsets could knock them out. Their Dance Chance % was just 45.6%, meaning they were less than likely to get in if their current trajectory continued. Their biggest problems were a 4-6 conference record and a #61 ranking in RealWins, meaning they didn't have an impressive résumé of wins.

That changed with the victory over Kansas. Just that one victory over a top team boosts their RealWins ranking to #37, and their RPI went from #39 to #32. At 16-9 overall (against Div-I) and 5-6 in conference, the Wildcats aren't yet a shoo-in, but their Dance Chance jumps to 67.2% and they'll move from a high 13-seed to a low 9-seed, well above bubble territory.

Overall consensus on Kansas State might be even better, as they were an 11-seed in yesterday's Bracket Matrix. At last look, only 38 of 60 brackets included the Wildcats while 22 left them out, making them among the most debated teams for inclusion. Yesterday's win will help settle that argument in their favor—at least for now.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 14 (February 14): OSU Still #1

Ohio State lost for the first time last week but they hold on to the top spot as their season thus far has been the best combination of strong play and success at winning. The Buckeyes' narrow road loss to Wisconsin just means that, like every team for the last 35 years, they won't finish the season undefeated.

Pittsburgh moves up to #2 with two wins this week against top 25 foes. The Panthers beat Villanova and West Virginia to boast six top 25 wins; they nudge San Diego State to #3. The Aztecs have only one loss but only one top 25 win.

BYU holds at #4, and Kansas, Texas, and Notre Dame also hold their positions after winning all their games this week.

Duke is up to #8 after getting their first top 25 win of the season, beating North Carolina at home. Georgetown continues their great Big East run—they've now won 8 in a row in conference play, with three of those being ranked foes. Connecticut became the latest St. John's victim and fell to #10. Georgetown and UConn play Wednesday night.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 14 (2-14-2011)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Top 25 wins; losses
1	1	Ohio St	24-1	L@Wisc-4; wPurdue+23, @FLA+18
3	2	Pittsburgh	23-2	L Tenn-7, ND-5; wSyr+8, UConn+15, =Texas+2, @Gtown+15, @Vill+3, @WVa+5
2	3	San Diego St	25-1	L@BYU-13; wStMary+14
4	4	Brigham Young	24-2	L@UCLA -7, @NMex-9; wSDSU+13, StMary+1, Ariz+22
5	5	Kansas	24-1	L Texas-11; wAriz+8
6	6	Texas	22-3	L@USC-17, =Pitt-2, UConn-ot; w@Kansas+11
7	7	Notre Dame	21-4	L@Marq-22, @St.John-18, @UK-14, @Syr-12;  w@Pitt+5, UConn+3, =Wisc+7, Gtown+14, Lou+ot, St.John+15
10	8	Duke	23-2	L@FSU-5, @St.Johns-15; wUNC+6
14	9	Georgetown	20-5	L@Temple-3, @St.John-3, @ND-14, WVA-6, Pitt-15; w@Vill+3, Lou+3, @Syr+8,  St.John+25
8	10	Connecticut	19-5	L@St.Johns-17, @Pitt-15, @ND-3, Lou-ot, Syr-8; w=UK+17, Vill+1, @Texas+ot
15	11	Wisconsin	19-5	L@ILL-8, @MichSt-ot, @PennSt-4, @UNLV-3, =ND-7; wOSU+4, Purdue+7
9	12	Villanova	19-6	L@Prov-15, @Rut-1, =Tenn-10, Pitt-4, @UConn-1, Gtown-3; w@Syr+11, Lou+14, WVA+16, Temple+4
12	13	Kentucky	17-7	L@Bama-2, @GA-7, @Miss-2, @UNC-2, @FL-1, =UConn-17, @Vandy-4;  w=Wash+7, ND+14, @Lou+15
13	14	Louisville	19-6	L@Drexel-6, @Prov-5, UK-15, @Vill-14, @Gtown-3, @ND-ot;  w@UConn+ot, WVA+1, Syr+4, St.John+25
16	15	Florida	20-5	@MissSt-7, @UCF-3, Jacks-ot, SC-3, OhioSt-18; wUK+2, Vandy+ot
11	16	Syracuse	20-6	L Seton-22, @Marq-6, Gtown-8, @Lou-4, @Pitt-8, Vill-11; wND+12, UConn+8, St.John+17
17	17	Vanderbilt	18-6	L Ark-11, @SCar-ot, @Mizz-ot, @Tenn-3, =WVA-3, @FL-ot; wSt.Mary+19, =UNC-7, UK+4
18	18	Purdue	20-5	L=Richmond-11, @Minn-3, @WVA-4, @OSU-23, @Wisc-7
19	19	St. Mary's	22-4	L@Port-15, =BYU-1, @SDSU-14, @Vandy-19; wSt.John+5
21	20	Washington	17-7	L@OreSt-12, @Ore-5, =MichSt-5, @TexAM-1, @Stanf-2, @WashSt-7, =UK-7; wAriz+17
22	21	Arizona	21-4	L@OreSt-2, =Kansas-8, @BYU-22, @Wash-17
20	22	West Virginia	16-8	L=Minn-4, @Miami-3, @Marq-5, =Marsh-4, St.John-10, @Lou-1, @Vill-16, Pitt-5;  wPurdue+4, @Gtown+6
23	23	North Carolina	18-6	L@GTech-20, =Minn-5, @ILL-12, =Vandy-7, Tex-2, @Duke-6; wUK+2
--	24	St. John's	15-9	L@Ford-3, St.Bon-1, Cincy-2, @UCLA-7, @St.Mary-5, @ND-15, @Syr-17, @Lou-25, @Gtown-25  w@WVa+10, Gtown+3, ND+18, Duke+15, UConn+17
--	25	Temple	19-5	L=Cal-7, =TexAM-3, @Duq-12, @Xav-11, @Vill-4; wGtown+3
		out:
24	--	Nevada Las Vegas	18-7	L UCSB-6, ColoSt-15, @Lou-8, BYU-12, @SDSU-6, @BYU-14, SDSU-6; wWisc+3
25t	--	Missouri	19-6	L@Colo-13, @OKst-6, @TexAM-ot, Gtown-ot, @Tex-13, @KU-17; wVandy+ot
25t	--	Tennessee	15-10	L@Charlot-1, Oak-7, USC-1, CofC@-13, @Ark-3, Bama-ot, FLA-ot, @UConn-11, @UK-12, @FLA-1  wPitt+7, =Vill+10, Vandy+3

Wisconsin jumps from #15 to #11 due to their big win over the Buckeyes. Most of the rest of the 2nd ten lost at least one game and some lost twice, including Big East teams Villanova at #12 and Syracuse at #16. Kentucky slid a spot to #14 after losing to #17 Vanderbilt, while #14 Louisville had a mixed week, beating Syracuse but losing to Notre Dame.

Florida won two conference games and moves up to #15, while Purdue also won twice and holds at #18. The Boilermakers still have no top 25 wins. #19 St. Mary's won twice in the WCC, while Washington and Arizona each won two Pac-10 games and move up a spot each to #20 and #21.

The last five teams in last week's list all lost to other top 25 teams. West Virginia lost to Pitt on Monday and drops to #22 with 8 losses; North Carolina holds at #23 despite losing to Duke; UNLV fell to San Diego State, Missouri lost to Kansas, and Tennessee dropped a close one to Florida.

The last three slide out of the rankings to make room for giant-killer St. John's who now boasts five top 25 wins including a beatdown of Connecticut last week. The Red Storm have four top ten wins. Temple also joins at #25.

Dance Chance for February 12: Top Seed Analysis

The latest Dance Chance update is here.

As noted in last Wednesday's psuedo-update, ten teams now have reached the vaunted 100% mark, meaning there's zero chance they can be kept out of the tournament. With Ohio State's first loss, Kansas has taken over as the overall #1 seed; the Jayhawks are #1 in both RPI and RealWins. Along with Pittsburgh they form a trio of consensus top seeds. The fourth is a matter of debate.

Right now we show BYU as the fourth #1 seed, but as we've mentioned before it might be hard for them to hold it. Breathing down their neck is Texas, who is the de facto favorite to take that spot, as well as conference-mate San Diego State and of course Duke.

• BYU needs to beat San Diego State twice and then can hopefully keep their RPI at #2. Anything short of winning the Mountain West tournament won't do it.
• Texas can pretty much lock up a top seed by either going 16-0 in the Big Twelve regular season, or by coming close and then winning the Big Twelve tournament while beating Kansas for a 2nd time.
• San Diego State needs to do what BYU wants to do: beat their conference rival twice and win the Mountain West tourney. Even if they don't play in a major, finishing with one loss is tough to ignore.
• Duke has to hope neither of the Mountain West teams' plans pan out and for a Texas stumble of some sort. If they play well down the stretch they'll be in the hunt until the end.

The Dance Chance top ten for games through Saturday, February 12, 2010:

#	Team	Conference	Record (vs. Div I)	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	Dance Chance	Seed	Chg
1	Kansas	Big 12	24-1	9-1	1	1	100%	1
2	Ohio St.	Big Ten	24-1	11-1	3	3	100%	1
3	Pittsburgh	Big East	23-2	11-1	6	2	100%	1
4	Brigham Young	Mtn West	23-2	10-1	2	6	100%	1	+1
5	Texas	Big 12	22-3	10-0	7	9	100%	2
6	San Diego St.	Mtn West	23-1	10-1	4	7	100%	2	-1
7	Duke	ACC	22-2	9-1	8	10	100%	2
8	Notre Dame	Big East	21-4	10-3	9	5	100%	2
9	Florida	SEC	20-5	9-2	11	4	100%	3
10	Georgetown	Big East	19-5	8-4	5	8	100%	3

Five other teams are on the verge of the 100% lock status. Wisconsin moves from a borderline 5/6 to a borderline 3/4 after upsetting Ohio State. The Badgers are now the #2 Big Ten team in the rankings and just need to get their RealWins score to the magical 30.0 mark to be considered a certainty. North Carolina, Arizona, and Purdue are in the same boat, with lock status being a mere formality. Syracuse has already surpassed the 30.0 RealWins mark but their recent losing streak means they could go 7-11 in conference. The Orange have been stuck at 99.9% for some time while losing 6 of their last 8 games.

Other big movers:

• Vanderbilt jumps from a borderline 6/7 to a borderline 4/5 after beating both SEC-leading Alabama and Kentucky. In doing so they take over as the #2 SEC team in the rankings.
• St. Mary's jumps from a 9 to a 7 with two conference wins. They're now 10-1 in the West Coast Conference, and are looking pretty solid as an at-large if they lose in their tournament with a 31 RPI.
• Memphis and UAB of the Conference-USA solidified their at-large chances, both moving up a few projected seeds. Both have RPI and RealWins rankings in the 30s, 3 conference losses, and 6 losses overall.
• Old Dominion is only the 2nd-ranked team in the Colonial Athletic conference, but they're still in decent shape as an at-large as they move to a borderline 9/10 seed. Their RPI of 28 is good but their RealWins ranking of 16 shows that they've defeated a lot of good teams, including Clemson, Xavier, Richmond, Colonial leader George Mason, and #3 Colonial prospect Virginia Commonwealth.

Speaking of Virginia Commonwealth, they're one of the teams on this week's bubble

47	Richmond	Atlantic 10	20-6	9-2	72	43	50.1	12	+1
48	Colorado St.	Mtn West	16-7	7-3	43	62	46.7	12	+
49	Kansas St.	Big 12	15-9	4-6	39	61	45.6	13	-3
50	Princeton	Ivy League	18-4	7-0	54	75	44.6	13
51	Coastal Carolina	Big South	20-2	15-0	55	103	42.8	13
52	Virginia Commonwealth	Colonial Ath	20-7	12-3	59	36	40.4	13	-1
53	Oklahoma St.	Big 12	16-8	4-6	56	58	39.1	13	-2
54	Texas El Paso	C-USA	18-5	7-2	52	80	38.4	13	+

Richmond just barely tops 50% while Colorado State moves into the seeding after upsetting New Mexico. Also joining is UTEP, giving the C-USA a theoretical three tournament teams. But like Colorado State, Kansas State, VCU, and Oklahoma State, they're below the 50% threshold, and with no conference tournament upsets to factor in all of these teams would be out of luck in most scenarios. As listed here, there are six 13-seeds: two automatic qualifiers and the four play-in at-large teams.

Ivy and Big South leaders Princeton and Coastal Carolina are now strong enough to be considered bubble teams even if they don't win their conferences. The Chanticleers are 15-0 in conference play, and an 18-0 conference record would be a strong argument for inclusion regardless of tournament outcome. On the downside, their RealWins score is just #103, showing how few good teams they've defeated even at 24-2 overall. Princeton's at-large case is odd, of course, since they'd have to lose a game to tie with Harvard for the Ivy title, then lose the 1-game playoff the Ivy uses as a tiebreaker. Disregarding that, the Tigers have the same bubble-worthy RPI (54) as Coastal Carolina with an also-poor RealWins ranking (#75).

Kansas State and Oklahoma State both took a tumble to fall into the play-in bracket; the Wildcats lost to Colorado Saturday and the Cowboys lost to Nebraska. Meanwhile Clemson and Northern Iowa fell out of the seeding list. The Tigers slipped off the bubble after losing to North Carolina and seeing their RPI slide to #73, while the Panthers, once in pretty good shape, have lost three in a row and have about a 1 in 4 chance of recovering to be the Missouri Valley's 3rd tourney team.

Other teams that slipped:

• Minnesota. The Gophers dropped their fourth game in a row and it was the "tipping point" for their seeding, as they fell from a low 7-seed to the higest 11-seed. Hurting them most is their 5-7 Big Ten record; they'll have a chance to turn things around at Iowa today, but the Hawkeyes are on a roll right when the Gophers are reeling. They still look like the Big Ten's 5th team in, with Michigan State and Michigan just outside the bubble.
• UNLV dropped a few seeds after losing to San Diego State, but like their loss to BYU it hasn't harmed their strong (#29) RPI.
• Cincinnati fell three seed spots without even playing since last Tuesday. Their RPI fell from #35 to #44. The reason? Ten of their 13 non-conference foes lost since last Tuesday, and six of them lost twice. That hit their RealWins ranking, too, which fell from #41 to #52. They're still the 10th Big East team in the seeding, with Marquette just outside the bubble.
• While no "AQ-only" conference leaders changed, Florida Atlantic fell a couple of seeds from 14 to 16. The Owls lost two games in the last three days and while they still have the best record in the  Sun Belt, the losses drop them into one of the play-in slots. Right now the Southland (McNeese State) and SWAC (Texas Southern) look certain to be in the lowest play-in slots, while competition is tight for staying out of the other two between Murray State (Ohio Valley), Long Beach State (Big West), FAU, and Hampton (MEAC).