There are less than two months left before Selection Sunday; with the State of the Union address coming up shortly, here's our take on the State of the NCAA Tournament for all 32 conferences, using our Dance Chance rankings.
First, we note that no team has a 100% chance yet, but ten teams are so close to being locks that for some it would take meltdowns never before seen in college basketball to deny them. Those 10 are:
| |
Team |
Conference |
Record
(vs. Div I) |
Conf
record |
RPI
rank |
RealWins
rank |
Dance
Chance
|
| 1 |
Ohio St. |
Big Ten |
20-0 |
7-0 |
6 |
3 |
99.9 |
| 2 |
Pittsburgh |
Big East |
19-1 |
7-0 |
5 |
1 |
99.9 |
| 3 |
San Diego St. |
Mountain West |
18-0 |
5-0 |
4 |
5 |
99.9 |
| 4 |
Duke |
ACC |
18-1 |
5-1 |
10 |
12 |
99.9 |
| 5 |
Brigham Young |
Mountain West |
18-1 |
5-0 |
2 |
7 |
99.9 |
| 6 |
Purdue |
Big Ten |
17-3 |
6-1 |
12 |
11 |
99.9 |
| 7 |
Villanova |
Big East |
17-2 |
5-1 |
8 |
8 |
99.9 |
| 8 |
Kansas |
Big 12 |
18-1 |
3-1 |
1 |
2 |
99.9 |
| 9 |
Syracuse |
Big East |
18-2 |
5-2 |
7 |
4 |
99.9 |
| 10 |
Texas |
Big 12 |
16-3 |
4-0 |
15 |
14 |
99.9 |
On top, Ohio State just became 20-0 and they're 7-0 in conference play. An 11-game losing streak plus a first-round Big Ten tournament loss is just about all that could (possibly) keep them out. In reality, their big concern is getting a number one seed.
Pitt is #2 and after beating Syracuse last week they are #1 in our RealWins rankings. In fact, in that metric they have past the magical "30" RealWins needed to be a lock. But if they lost 12 straight, finishing 7-11 in regular conference play and 19-13 overall, would they be going to the Big Dance? Like OSU, instead of worrying about that 1 in a million occurrence, they are another top seed candidate.
#10 Texas just beat Kansas and appears to be on the verge of being consecrated by the Dance Chance, but they clearly have a way to go to be a "lock." Their RealWins score is just 23.55, and they've played just four conference games, so it's too early to usher them in. Teams with much better records than theirs have failed to make the tournament come March.
Now the conferences, ordered by the number of teams currently in the "green," that is, seen making the tournament at this time.
Big East (10)
Could the Big East really get 10 bids? It seems far-fetched, as the previous record is 8, twice—by the Big East. But looking over at ESPN, Joe Lunardi has the Big East with 11 !
Clearly Pittsburgh, Villanova, and Syracuse are going to be locks soon. UConn and Notre Dame are close behind, with the Huskies RPI at #3 and Notre Dame's RealWins at #6. And West Virginia, Georgetown, St. John's, and Louisville are all very strong candidates, with the former three all in the top 25 of the RPI and the latter having a good wins resumé. Then there is Cincinnati, who is 17-3. That makes ten, but with all the interplay left, there are going to be a lot of losses and not all of them will make it. I can buy 9, but not 10.
There are even a few more who can't be completely counted out. Marquette has a decent shot; right now they are just under the bubble line. Rutgers and Providence still have a prayer, but despite having winning overall records the Scarlet Knights don't have good non-conference wins and the Friars are just 1-6 in Big East play. Likely they will soon join Seton Hall, South Florida, and DePaul as those clearly left out of the fun in this competitive league.
Big Ten (6)
Ohio State is 20-0 and 7-0 in conference play, Purdue is 17-3 and 6-1, and both are high seed candidates. After that there is some falloff but four very likely choices. Minnesota is just 4-3 in conference but top 25 in both the RPI and RealWins. Illinois is 14-6 overall but 16th in RealWins with victories over North Carolina and Maryland. Wisconsin and Michigan State are 26th and 23rd in the RPI but lack solid resumés so far; still, they are very likely picks from the current vantage point.
A few hopefuls looked good earlier in the year but have faltered. Penn State is just 10-8 but fell to Ohio State and Purdue by a combined four points; they're in surprisingly good shape in the RPI but overall their profile is that of a bubble team that misses. There is still time, however, for the Lions but less chance for Northwestern, who grades low in RPI and RealWins despite having a better record than Penn State. Indiana and Michigan still had a token slim chance as of Saturday, but cellar-dwelling Iowa probably ruined that for the Hoosiers by beating them Sunday.
Big 12 (5)
Texas brought Kansas back down to earth last week, but the Jayhawks still rank #1 in the RPI and #2 in RealWins, and at 18-1 are a prime contender for a top seed. And right behind the Longhorns are the Aggies of Texas A&M, with a 16-2 overall. Joining them should be Missouri, 16-3 with a healthy resumé, and more than likely Oklahoma State will sneak in as a lower seed.
Who is out? Probably Kansas State. The pre-season darlings are just 12-7 and off to a 1-4 start in Big 12 play. It's still early so they still have about a 1/3 chance at this time, but they'd better go on a good run soon. Likewise Colorado, Baylor, Nebraska, and Iowa State, teams that all have decent overall records (5 or 6 losses) but uninspiring resumés. Oklahoma has even a smaller chance, and Texas Tech is officially underwater according to the Dance Chance—that is, they almost certainly need to win the conference tournament to get in the Big Dance.
SEC (5)
The Southeastern Conference has four very strong at-large candidates and another that should make it, each with different strengths in their profile. Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt lead the way with the main difference being their conference records, as each has 4 losses overall. Tennessee was just 12-7 as of Saturday but an amazing #9 in RealWins—they've defeated Pittsburgh and Villanova from the Big East, beat Vanderbilt once, and handed Belmont two of their three losses. Georgia's record is similar to the first three teams', but their RPI and RealWins are lagging enough to make them questionable (but looking probable at this point).
Either bad RPIs, lack of solid wins, or poor conference starts have Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and both Mississippi teams with modest to meager odds. With plenty of time left, the only team that looks absolutely out of it is fooball champ Auburn, who is 6-11 in basketball with an 0-5 SEC mark. Maybe Cam Newton could join the hoops team?
ACC (5*)
Of course there's Duke. Then what? Well, for all the belly-aching about Harrison Barnes and a poor start, North Carolina is actually doing pretty well. At least well enough to make the tournament at their current trajectory (13-5 with a #20 RPI). Boston College has some good wins and should make it along with Florida State, who holds the one win over Duke. The fifth team would be Miami, and that's a stretch. We have them at about 44% likelihood right now, and they get in only because 68 teams go dancing this year. That is, they get it if there are no conference tournament upsets! They are a true "bubble team" with a #52 RPI and #53 RealWins, and a #50 overall ranking. Most likely, they don't get in; but since we don't pick conference tournament upsets, we have them as one of the "first four" fighting for a #13 seed.
Virginia Tech isn't far behind Miami and is off to a better conference start, so they could be the fifth team if there is one from the ACC. Clemson and Maryland are less likely, and Virginia, N.C. State, and Georgia Tech have their work cut out for them at around 10% or below. Wake Forest is pretty much a lock not to get in sans a conference tournament miracle.
Atlantic 10 (4*)
One solid pick, two bubble teams, and one uber-bubble team make up this league's four entries at this stage. Xavier has five losses but is #27 in both the RPI and RealWins, and 5-0 in-conference so far, and have a 90%+ chance to make the tournament. Far behind them is Temple, with a #37 RPI and far less bragging rights for their identical 13-5 record. Richmond actually has a better resumé than Temple but their #61 RPI is a problem; still, they should beat the bubble by a hair. Dayton is another team on the "brink," one that makes it only because of the expansion and only if there are no upsets in conference tournaments. At 49.2%, they control their own destiny pretty well, and as with Miami we count them for now.
Rhode Island and Duquesne have some hope; the former is #50 in RealWins and the latter is 5-0 in conference so far. But both are hampered by other aspects of their profile and have slim odds, under 25% each. Even slimmer are UMass and George Washington, both of whom are a loss or two away from joining colleague St. Bonaventure in the just-barely-underwater category. That's still better than the remaining five league teams can boast, as all have losing records and really no chance to salvage an at-large bid.
Mountain West (3)
The MWC has had three bids before, but not like this. San Diego State and Brigham Young are among the top teams in the country and either could via for a #1 seed this year. SDSU is 20-0 (18-0 against Div I) and BYU is 19-1 (18-1). Both are 5-0 in conference so far. BYU is #2 in the RPI and #7 in RealWins; the Aztecs are #4 and #5. These teams are locks by an realistic measure and will soon be mathematical locks. Nevada-Las Vegas isn't nearly as impressive; they're 15-5, 3-3 in conference, #32 in RPI and RealWins. But that should be enough to put them in, too, at a middle seed.
Colorado State isn't out of the picture, either; they have a decent RPI and wins profile, and a good run with a few big runs in it could put them on the bubble. Air Force shows a 2.1% chance, with a very poor RPI, while last year's phenom New Mexico looks out of it for now after a 1-4 conference start. Wyoming is underwater too, while Utah and TCU will have to reminisce about the football season.
Pac-10 (3)
Last year the Pac-10 had it rough, and this year's not much better. But two teams look like clear selections: Washington and Arizona. The Huskies are top 30 in RPI and RealWins and have a 7-1 Pac-10 record. Arizona is just behind in all three measures and has a better overall mark. Both are above 90% in our ratings. UCLA is a bubble team but right now they're in. Just barely above the 50 mark in RPI and RealWins—and overall in the Dance Chance. That puts them at a cool 12 seed, and given that conference tournament upsets are unaccounted for, possibly a play-in game.
If the Bruins should falter, however, three other Pac-10 teams have a realistic shot at replacing them. Washington State, Cal, and USC all show about a 1 in 3 chance—so one of them should make it, right? But the Cougars problem is a low RPI, the Bears have 8 losses, and USC has a #94 RPI and 9 losses. Like last year, the Trojans have a lot of inexplicable good wins, too, which keeps them afloat but like the others probably not in the mix unless things turn around. They're better off than Stanford and Oregon State, who fare better than the bottom two (Oregon and Arizona State), who are at the waterline in terms of having any chance at all under any realistic circumstances.
Colonial Athletic (3*)
It's a battle for the #1 team in this league, with #44 George Mason edging #45 Old Dominion despite neither team being in the top two in the conference standings. The Patriots and Monarchs have a near-equal RPI (33 to 34) and are both 14-5 against Division I opponents. Old Dominion has better wins but George Mason is ahead in conference play after the Monarchs' loss to VCU. If these teams make it to the conference tournament finals, the loser should still have a spot in the Big Dance.
Between the two teams actually leading the conference (with identical 7-1 marks), Virginia Commonwealth is in a much better place than Hofstra and makes the tournament as the last team in if—a huge if—there are no surprises in the conference tournies. VCU has bubble-team level RPI and RealWins while Hofstra is far below, giving the Pride a meager 5.3% Dance Chance as an at-large, just ahead of James Madison. Drexel (12-6) is barely below water, while the rest of the league is more firmly in the "gotta-win-the-conference-tournament" group.
Missouri Valley (2)
Missouri State's 8-1 conference record makes them a very strong candidate as an at-large so far, and their RPI and wins profile holds up well. Wichita State—triple overtime winner on Saturday—is a bubble team on the good side of the bubble, but might have to play their way into the "real bracket" unless they establish themselves as a more clear-cut choice.
Northern Iowa, last season's cinderella, doesn't appear to be on track to make it but they still have an opportunity; their #70 RPI is holding them back. Triple-overtime loser Indiana State still has a shot, too, but it's fading as they have 8 losses; their 7-2 league record keeps them alive. Creighton has a miniscule hope, and Southern Illinois probably doesn't have even that, while Drake, Bradley, and Illinois State all have double-digits in the loss column with months to go.
Horizon (2)
Another great battle at the top of the Horizon League finds Cleveland State holding off Butler. The Bulldogs have a slight edge in both RPI and RealWins but the Vikings have a better overall record (15-3 to 13-6) and an extra conference win (7-2 to 6-2) as of Saturday.
But again, neither team is leading the league. Valparaiso is 7-1 and right now looks like the first team out, just on the wrong side of the bubble in the 68-team field. In other words, keep winning conference games and they could get on the right side, though the conference tournaments would have to be bubble-friendly. The other seven teams in the Horizon have to win the conference tourney, realistically.
WAC (1) - Utah State is 7-0 and should win the league tournament; if they don't, they look like a strong at-large team regardless. Only two other teams appear to have a shot at an at-large bid: if Boise State and/or Idaho (both 5-2 right now) finish with a fantastic conference record, it would look impressive as the WAC is generally considered a mid-major. Still, neither would have a great shot, and every other team in the league is a lost cause unless they win the tournament.
Conference-USA (1) - Another mid-major, and traditional power Memphis has taken control as the most likely to win the league and as the only likely at-large probability. But they're a bubble team if they don't win the tournament, and three other league teams have a moderate at-large possibility. UAB has a bubble-worthy RPI (53), UTEP has records equal to Memphis (15-4, 4-1), and UCF has bubble-worthy RealWins (#54). And interestingly, almost every other team has a winning record, from Southern Miss to Houston, Marshall, East Carolina, Tulsa, and Tulane—any of them could make a run to the bubble, however unlikely. But SMU appears to be drowning and Rice is out of it.
West Coast (1) - A few weeks ago three teams looked set to go dancing from the WCC but two fell below the bubble. St. Mary's is in the driver's seat with the best record (15-3 Division I), best conference record (5-0) and best RPI (#41). They'd be a healthy bubble team if they lost in the conference tournament, but Portland and Gonzaga would be on the other side currently. The Pilots fell to 2-3 in-conference, while the Zags are just 12-6 with a #66 RPI. All three might end up making it but for now the WCC is looking like a 1-bid league. San Francisco and Santa Clara are given a token chance, while the rest of the league is out of luck.
Ivy League (1) - The most interesting conference race because it actually means something. No tournament, so Harvard's lead means little when they're only 2-0 in conference. The Crimson's 11-3 (Div I) record and #51 RPI actually gives them a slim shot as an at-large, but realistically the Ivy League isn't going to get that—the only team that would be good enough to be selected at-large will win the conference race. So Princeton, Columbia, and Yale—all with moderate to token chances—had better just win the league. And though Penn, Brown, Cornell, and Dartmouth are already at 0.0% as at-large teams, they are at worst 0-2 in-conference and therefore will be in-play for the conference's automatic bid for at least several weeks.
Big South (1) - Coastal Carolina is 9-0 in conference play but probably in the same boat as everyone in the Big South—they need to win the tournament for a Big Dance bid. Not that they have zero chance as an at-large; their #68 RPI isn't quite prohibitive, and they are 13-2 overall (18-2 if you include five opponents who are not strictly Division One). But their strength of schedule isn't going to go up from here. Liberty at 8-1 has a meager Dance Change score that is not likely to get much better, and every other team is well underwater. But due to the conference tournament, they'll all have an "equal" shot to make it, even if the Chanticleers run the table in conference play! At least they'd be guaranteed the NIT, I guess.
Atlantic Sun (1) - Belmont is a team that really could get attention as an at-large if they don't win the Atlantic Sun tournament. Two of their three losses are to Tennessee, and the other is to Vanderbilt. Their RPI is 72 and they haven't beaten many strong opponents—they're just winning by a lot of points, ranking #16 in our Strength ratings and #30 in at Kenpom.com. The Bruins ought to win their conference easily—on Sunday they beat 2nd place East Tennessee State on the road to go 10-0—but if they slip up tourney time, what will happen? With the current process and guidelines (which don't include looking at margin of victory measures), they'd still be a bubble team. Hopefully if that happens the committee does the right thing and lets them in, based on their narrow losses to SEC schools.
Summit (1) - Oakland is yet another undefeated (9-0) conference leader who would have a small chance of making the NCAA tournament as an at-large team. But in their case it would be very understandable as they have 8 losses overall. No other team in the Summit would have a prayer of getting in unless they won the tournament, and Oakland will have to do the same.
MAC (1) - Ball State is 5-0 in the MAC and 12-3 against all Division I opponents, enough to give them consideration as an at-large, but their #106 RPI and #171 RealWins totals will be prohibitive. So they'll need a conference tournament win, along with all the other teams in the MAC, all of whom are underwater (0% chance as an at-large) already.
Patriot League (1) - Bucknell has a decent #70 ranking in RealWins, so they've racked up some good victories and show a small positive Dance Chance. American has done less than that and has a meager 1.5% score. Everyone else in the Patriot League is far, far underwater, from #248 Lehigh to #324 Colgate. One of the top two will hopefully win the league tournament.
Sun Belt (1) - Florida Atlantic is 7-0 in-conference, while North Texas is 13-4 overall, and they're the only teams that register as having a hope to make it as an at-large. For the latter the hope is probably fleeting (1%) and the former is barely in the top 100 in RPI and RealWins, so like everyone else at this level it's the conference tournament that will call the shots.
Metro Atlantic (1) - Two teams are tied at 7-1 in conference play and they're the only teams above-water with remaining possible at-large consideration (around 10% each). Fairfield has the slightly better overall record (14-4 to 13-6) but Iona has a respectable RPI and RealWins, giving them perhaps more upside potential. Either way, if these two meet in the conference tourney final the loser is almost undoubtedly out of luck.
Big Sky (1) - The Big Sky also has two teams with a nearly 10% chance for at-large consideration, but Northern Colorado's Dance Chance is inflated by their 7-0 conference record. Even going 16-0 would make them 20-7 overall—17-7 against Division I—not a super-strong candidate. And that's before the tournament loss that would necessitate their selection as an at-large. Montana is 12-5 (7-1) with an RPI and RealWins ranking of #99 and #98, so they'd make a better at-large candidate if they nearly win out. But odds are greatly against both of them getting there any way other than winning their own tourney.
Mid-Eastern (1) - The MEAC has Hampton (14-4, 5-1), who theoretically has a small shot at an at-large bid, and three other teams (Morgan State, Bethune-Cookman, and Delaware State) who have just 1 conference loss but are already at 0% as at-large candidates. The remaining seven teams have terrible records and some of the worst RPIs in the nation. Which is why only the tourney winner can make it; you can't increase your RPI, or get quality wins, playing in this league.
Southern (1) - Furman (6-2) is only a game back from the College of Charleston (7-1), and even has a better record at 11-5 to C of C's 13-6. But while the Cougars have a fair RPI (#81) and a decent RealWins score (#73), the Paladins—like 7-1 Wofford and 7-2 Chattanooga—are well over 100 in both measures and have little or no chance to be an at-large consideration. Not that the Cougars do, either, but this just explains why they're currently our top-ranked team in the Southern Conference.
Southwest Athletic (1) - According to our numbers, Texas Southern has a 1.7% chance of making it as an at-large team if they follow their current trajectory. But even if they go 18-0 in-conference—making them 20-9 overall—it's doubtful their RPI will increase very much, and they won't have more marquee wins. The SWAC includes six teams ranked #290 or lower, and no teams with winning records against Division I opponents. The Tigers' main competition is from Jackson State (6-1) who shares their dismal RPI and RealWins rankings.
America East (1) - Thanks to a 6-1 conference record, Maine just edges Vermont in our Dance Chance rankings. But the Catamounts have a better profile and better overall record, so come tournament time the difference between Maine's alleged 1.1% Dance Chance and Vermont's 0% won't mean anything. The rest of the conference is terrible, with every team having double-digits in the loss column already.
Northeast (1) - Long Island's loss on Saturday to St. Francis (PA) dropped them to the 0% mark, making the Northeast our first conference to have all of its teams "underwater." The Blackbirds are still our top team in the conference so they get the designation as the representative, but that's up to tournament play. They'll be the favorite, with only a few teams looking to challenge them.
Ohio Valley (1) - Austin Peay and Murray State will be the favorites from this conference, which features some of the worst teams in the nation. That's how Tennessee State is 7-2 in conference play, and 7-9 overall against Division I teams.
Southland (1) - This is one of the most wide-open conferences, partly due to the fact that they've only played four conference games each, and because there's a lot of parity—every team is either bad or very bad. Perhaps the least bad is Stephen F. Austin; they're firmly underwater as an at-large like everyone else, though, so they'll have to earn it in their tournament.
Big West (1) - Long Beach State is only 9-10 against Division I foes, but they're 6-2 in the Big West, well ahead of the 2nd place team (4-3). They and the other eight California teams in the conference will fight it out come tournament time for a spot in the NCAA tourney.
Great West (0) - The Great West doesn't get an automatic bid yet, as it's too new and has only seven full-fledged Division One members, six of whom rank #300 or lower in the RPI. New Jersey Institute of Technology, winless a few years ago, is currently 2-0 in the conference. Needless to say, all seven members are at 0% for an at-large bid which would be their only way in.
Independents (0) - With no conference affiliation, these teams are dependent on getting an at-large bid, and that doesn't happen often. No independent currently has even a winning record, which is necessary for consideration in the first place. These teams tend to rank a bit high in the Dance Chance (even at 0%) since they by definition never have any conference losses.