Throughout the playoff season, the Boston Celtics have been creating what little excitement there's been. First by knocking off LeBron James and the league-leading Cleveland Cavaliers, then by taking down the #2 Orlando Magic. Now they're trying to complete their rundown of the top three teams of the regular season. Game one didn't go their way, but they took game two from the Lakers in Los Angeles, 103-94, giving them a respectable chance of becoming the NBA champions again.
In game one Kobe Bryant scored 30 points; tonight he was held to 21 while Ray Allen went nuts with 3-pointers, making seven in the first half alone. He finished with 32 points while Rajon Rondo had a triple-double: 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists.
Pao Gasol's 25 and Andrew Bynum's 21 kept it close, with the game tied at the end of the 3rd quarter, but Boston pulled away in the last few minutes of the fourth. With the series tied 1-1 and the next three games in Boston, the Celtics are in about as good of shape as they could hope for at this point.
The series is essentially a tossup now, though the numbers still slightly favor Los Angeles. Before the series began, L.A. was a 57% favorite to win using the Strength Power Rating's comparison system with the 2-3-2 playoff format. By winning game one, the Lakers' odds increased to 70%. Boston's win tonight reduces that to 51%.
With the unusual format, there are a number of possibilities. On a pure game-by-game basis, of course, Boston has the edge; winning all three home games gives them the title. But Los Angeles will most likely win one of those games, sending the series back to L.A., where the Lakers will have to defend both games.
While L.A.'s most likely path to victory now is in seven games, Boston's odds are evenly spread through the chances of winning in 5, 6, or 7. Here are the scenarios in order of likelihood:
Scenario % chance
Lakers in 7 22%
Lakers in 6 20%
Celtics in 6 17%
Celtics in 5 16%
Celtics in 7 16%
Lakers in 5 9%
total: 100%
I added the "total" row to make it clear that the odds aren't cumulative, that is, winning in 7 is a discrete event. For cumulative winning odds (winning in X games or fewer), Los Angeles' odds are 9%, 29%, and 51%, while Boston's are 16%, 33%, and 49%. The final number (each team's chance to win in 7 or fewer games) matches the totals from the chart above.
The wild card, as always, is psychology. The playoff format can give quick momentum to a team, and kill that momentum just as fast, which Boston found out against Cleveland when they destroyed the Cavs on the road only to be demolished in Boston. They also went up 3-0 against the Magic only to see the lead cut to 3-2.
The 2-3-2 format gives Boston a great opportunity: defend their home court and win it all. But after suffering losses to both Cleveland and Orlando in home games, it may be a stretch to think they can close it out at home. Meaning they'll probably have to beat Los Angeles in the Staples Center again.
The odds chance dramatically with each game. One home win by Boston would make them a 66% bet for the series; a loss in game 3, however, puts them in a 72% hole to the Lakers. With a slight percentage edge going to L.A. but the Celtics controlling the home court advantage, this series is about as close as it can be, which is to say, it's the most up-in-the-air right now as it can get. From here on out, one team or the other will be in the driver's seat, so enjoy this uncertainty while you can.