Before the NBA playoffs started, our analysis favored Orlando rather than Cleveland to make the NBA finals. I wasn't all that confident in this prediction, since a motivated LeBron—injured elbow or not—seemed likely to set up the "King vs. Kobe" finals that everyone wanted. What seemed very certain was that Cleveland and Orlando would be battling it out in the East finals.
Boston had other ideas, though. They scored a huge upset win at Cleveland in game two, making the series nearly a tossup. The Cavs' own blowout win in Boston righted the ship in game three, assuaging fears that LeBron's season would come to a premature end. But after an expected game four home win, the Celtics did it again on the road with another big road win, an embarrassing 120-88 blowout. After that, game six was a foregone conclusion.
But the Celtics wouldn't get past Orlando, would they? They were playing well, certainly, but most of the analysis of the Cleveland-Boston series focused on James, his elbow, and his future in Cleveland. And meanwhile Orlando was steamrolling through their opponents, sweeping both Charlotte and Atlanta in dominating fashion.
Magic's kingdom in foreclosure?
It seems clear now that Orlando's success made them a bit complacent, so much that even after game 1—where the Celtics roared to a 20 point lead and held on for a 92-88 win in Orlando—the Magic couldn't put together a great performance in game 2. The game was close, and Howard had a much better effort than in the first one, but Jameer Nelson's long three pointer to tie fell short and Boston won 95-92. Orlando is in a huge hole and their performance in game 2 doesn't bode well for the next two games in Boston. After sweeping two opponents, the Magic are in danger of being swept themselves.
The initial odds calculation from the Strength Power Rating suggested that Orlando was a 69% favorite to win the series, not out of line with most perception despite Boston's success against Cleveland. Remember, Orlando hadn't lost a game in well over a month. After the first Boston win, the series—like the Boston-Cleveland series—became a tossup, but Orlando held on to a 50.5% edge. Remember, Boston plays no better at home this year than on the road. But with the Magic in a 2-0 hole—even though they're slight favorites (52%) in Boston and Orlando (64%), their odds of winning four games this series are down to 28%.
Rondo retrospective
Boston's tepid home court play gives Orlando its only hope. But the most important development of the playoff season is Rajon Rondo's emergence as the Fourth Musketeer. Rondo's 19 assists against Cleveland in game 2, and his 29 point, 18 rebound performance in game 4 show he's doing it all for the Celtics. In the playoff season he has 138 assists against just 42 turnovers and has exceeded 20 points five times including 25 on Tuesday night. For the season Rondo averaged just 13.7 points per game.
Teams got used to facing Boston's big three, but Rondo throws a wrench into that plan. Cleveland didn't know what to do with him, and focusing on him in game five, where he was scoreless until nearly the final quarter, allowed the others to shine.
Ray Allen had 25 in that game and 25 against Orlando in game one. Paul Pierce had 28 against the Magic on Tuesday night. Meanwhile Kevin Garnett had been reliably scoring in the teens before the Orlando series, in which he's managed just 8 and 10 against Rashard Lewis and Howard. But with Kendrick Perkins and Rasheed Wallace doing a great job on Howard (limited to 13 in game one) it didn't matter. And though Howard bounced back for 30 in game two, he didn't have much help from his team.
So it is that after two close games, Boston is up 2-0. Nothing says that Orlando can't take two close games in Boston and tie the series, but the series momentum is certainly with the Celtics at this point. As noted by ESPN Boston is 32-0 when leading 2-0 in a playoff series.
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