Two great things about the 2010 NBA playoffs that start today:
- Every team in the field of 16 has a .500 record or better this year, and
- Every team in the West has 50 wins or more
It's a very even field overall, especially considering that over 1/2 of the teams are in. This is mostly thanks to the NBA having a few very bad teams that suck up a large amount of losses. So thank you, New Jersey and Minnesota, you've done your part for the league this season and will be rewarded come draft time.
Until then, though, there's the matter of determining the association champion for 2009-2010. Here is the Strength power rating for the NBA regular season:
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1. Orlando 59-23 6.93
2. Cleveland 61-21 5.98
3. Utah 53-29 5.25
4. San Antonio 50-32 5.25
5. Phoenix 54-28 4.69
6. LA Lakers 57-25 4.67
7. Atlanta 53-29 4.43
8. Denver 53-29 4.00
9. Oklahoma 50-32 3.64
10. Portland 50-32 3.39
11. Boston 50-32 3.32
12. Dallas 55-27 2.65
13. Miami 47-35 1.76
14. Milwaukee 46-36 1.25
15. Charlotte 44-38 1.24
16. Houston 42-40 -0.15
17. Memphis 40-42 -1.09
18. Chicago 41-41 -1.66
The East's 2-seed, Orlando, edges Cleveland as the best team, and San Antonio—#7 in the West—is #3. Keep in mind that this rating covers the entire year, not weighing recent games any extra, and is oblivious to trade considerations and current injuries.
Again, the playoff field is strong. The top 15 are all included, with only Chicago falling below the middle of the pack.
Now let's split the home and road teams. Here are the top home teams:
1. Orlando 34-7 11.492. Utah 32-9 9.29
3. Phoenix 32-9 9.27
4. Denver 34-7 8.88
5. Cleveland 35-6 8.42
6. LA Lakers 34-7 8.31
7. Atlanta 34-7 8.14
8. San Antonio 29-12 8.00
9. Charlotte 31-10 6.67
10. Oklahoma 27-14 5.78
11. Portland 26-15 4.70
12. Miami 24-17 3.41
13. Boston 24-17 3.07
14. Milwaukee 28-13 2.74
15. Dallas 28-13 2.25
22. Chicago 24-17 0.44
Note how badly Chicago lags as a home team. Now the road teams:
1. Cleveland 26-15 3.43
2. Boston 26-15 3.40
3. Dallas 27-14 3.05
4. San Antonio 21-20 2.45
5. Orlando 25-16 2.34
6. Portland 24-17 2.12
7. Oklahoma 23-18 1.44
8. Utah 21-20 1.20
9. LA Lakers 23-18 0.93
10. Atlanta 19-22 0.59
11. Miami 23-18 0.18
12. Phoenix 22-19 0.06
13. Milwaukee 18-23 -0.20
14. Denver 19-22 -0.83
18. Chicago 17-24 -3.79
19. Charlotte 13-28 -4.18
Again Chicago lags on the road, but Charlotte does even worse among the playoff teams.
So how does this pan out for projections? In a seven-game series, the home court factor looms large, so the teams ranked highest in the power rating don't always come out on top in a projection of a 7-game series. Here are our first-round picks (Projection is strictly by the numbers; prediction is what we think):
EAST
- 1 Cleveland vs. 8 Chicago
The Cavs have the easiest first-round victim of any team, befitting a #1 seed. With a big edge at home or on the road and Chicago in administrative turmoil, they have a good chance of a sweep.
Projection: Cleveland in 5 (87% to win series; 22% chance of sweep; 75% home, 62% road).
Prediction: Cleveland in 4. - 2 Orlando vs. 7 Charlotte
Orlando could be a better team than Cleveland but they draw a tougher opponent. Still, they're favored both home and away.
Projection: Orlando in 6 (81% to win series; 17% chance of sweep; 71% home, 59% road).
Prediction: Orlando in 5. - 3 Atlanta vs. 6 Milwaukee
Atlanta is a sizeable home favorite and even money on the road, so they should handle the Bucks.
Projection: Atlanta in 7 (66% to win series; 10% chance of sweep; 64% home, 49% road)
Prediction: Atlanta in 6. - 4 Boston vs. 5 Miami
Boston could have their hands full with Miami, but should come out on top. The Celtics are actually a better road team than home team this year: using the split home/road team numbers, Boston is favored on the road games and an underdog at home! That's not realistic, but expect to see the Heat win one of the first two games and Boston steal back one of the next two, and have to close it out at the Garden.
Projection: Boston in 7 (60% to win series; 8% chance of sweep; 59% home, 48% road)
Prediction: Boston in 7.
Overall the East plays out as expected: all the favored teams advance, and in our predictions the more evenly-matched seeds take longer to win than the disparate ones. That's because there's a lot of spacing between the East teams, unlike the parity-filled West, where every series is projected as a likely 7-gamer by the statistics.
WEST
- 1 LA Lakers vs. 8 Oklahoma City
The conventional wisdom seems to be that the Kobe-led Lakers will school Durant's green Thunder. But for the regular season the teams rank pretty evenly. It's not hard to imagine a back-and-forth series along home-court lines with Oklahoma winning close games at home. Using split home/road team stats Los Angeles is a slight favorite in every game, so the line between an LA sweep and a 7-game series is pretty thin. But we're thinking Durant shines at home and the Lakers win a blowout at home in game seven.
Projection: Lakers in 7 (57% to win series; 7% chance of sweep; 59% home, 45% road)
Prediction: Lakers in 7. - 2 Dallas vs. 7 San Antonio
San Antonio always comes alive during the playoffs. This year should be no exception as Dallas is a surprisingly weak home team. This should be a very close series which would suggest a 7-game series, if a Dallas home loss occurs before game 7 the Spurs could seal it at home in game 6.
Projection: San Antonio in 7 (58% to win series; 9% chance of sweep; 61% home, 48% road)
Prediction: San Antonio in 6. - 3 Phoenix vs. 6 Portland
Though these teams are fairly evenly-matched and should have close games throughout, Phoenix will be the favorite in home and road games so a sweep is more of a possibility here than in the 1-8 and 2-7 matchups. But because it is close (by projected score more than win %), Portland will likely win some of the close ones at home.
Projection: Phoenix in 7 (59% to win series; 8% chance of sweep; 60% home, 54% road)
Prediction: Phoenix in 6. - 4 Denver vs. 5 Utah
The NorthWest division teams share a similar record so picking Utah here isn't much of an upset. But picking Utah to advance to the finals perhaps is, which is what our power rating suggests. The Jazz could be derailed here, though, and pretty easily as winning a series with the home court against you is always tough, and the Nuggets are strong at home. So are the Jazz, though, so it should be 3-3 when the series comes back to Denver. We're picking this one against the computers; Utah will need some luck to advance.
Projection: Utah in 7 (58% to win series; 8% chance of sweep; 61% home, 47% road)
Prediction: Denver in 7.
The Power Rating picks two upsets (by the seedings) and we're going along with one of them.
For the entire playoffs, here is the projection by the power rating:
Cleveland-----|
|---Cleveland 87%---|
Chicago-------| |
|---Cleveland 69%---|
Boston--------| | |
|---Boston 60%------| |
Miami---------| |
|---Orlando 55%--|
Atlanta-------| | |
|---Atlanta 66%-----| | |
Milwaukee-----| | | |
|---Orlando 67%-----| |
Orlando-------| | |
|---Orlando 81%-----| |
Charlotte-----| |
|--Orlando 59%
|
LA Lakers-----| |
|---LA Lakers 57%---| |
Oklahoma City-| | |
|---Utah 55%--------| |
Denver--------| | | |
|---Utah 58%--------| | |
Utah----------| | |
|---Utah 50.7%---|
Phoenix-------| |
|---Phoenix 59%-----| |
Portland------| | |
|---Phoenix 52%-----|
Dallas--------| |
|---San Antonio 58%-|
San Antonio---|
The power rating favors Orlando enough to give them the East title despite lack of home court advantage for their series with Cleveland. I'm not sure if I'd take anyone over a motivated LeBron James team with a 4-3 home court advantage. Whoever wins the East should be the favorite to win the NBA title, though.
In the West, if Utah gets past Denver, could they upset the Lakers and roll into the championship game? That's a tall order, and beating either Denver or Los Angeles is a chore, let alone both. And after that they are only the slimmest of favorites—50.7%—to beat Phoenix. So it's hard to imagine this scenario really playing out, though it's an interesting one.
Even if the Jazz somehow make it, Orlando or Cleveland would be a heavy favorite in the finals. Basically the West is wide open, as it often is. But in the end the Lakers or the Spurs always seem to pull it off, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to find that matchup this year in the West title series.
I wouldn't mind seeing this scenario occur, but the power rating doesn't know that Cleveland didn't really try its last few games and sat James. And with Shaq coming back, assuming no chemistry problems it will be the first time that they're really at full strength all year.
And on Utah, it's not clear how healthy Boozer is. Okur's a bit banged up and it looks like Kirilenko will miss the whole first round.
Posted by: Ben | April 17, 2010 at 02:39 PM
Right, I was going to mention that Cleveland had a 4 game "losing" streak coming into the playoffs. Maybe after the first round I'll factor out injuries/trades and see how that plays out vis a vis Cleveland and Orlando. And by then Utah could be gone which would change the West rep too.
Posted by: SportsRatings | April 19, 2010 at 05:18 AM
2nd round is almost coming and the teams you have selected are going now to its position except for the Atlanta Hawks. Today, they are down by 1 (2-3) after winning 2 straight games. But the Bucks, what changes they had made and manage to turn back the series in their favor? I can't wait who's gonna win on this series.
Posted by: Tera (Online Doctor Consultation) | April 30, 2010 at 03:04 PM
Well Tera, Online Doctor Consultation, it seems that even the Atlanta Hawks made it, so all the teams I picked are in the 2nd round! (Except for the fact that I overruled Utah beating Denver, but let's just forget that one shall we?).
Thanks for leaving on-topic comments with your spam, I appreciate it.
Posted by: SportsRatings | May 03, 2010 at 12:57 AM