SportsRatings: College Basketball

2010 NCAA Tournament Final Four Previews, Odds, and Predictions: Michigan State vs. Butler

Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 5
Record: 28-8
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 5
Record: 32-4
Conference: Horizon

Date: Saturday, April 3
Time: 6:07 pm Eastern
Location: Indianapolis, IN

Butler's in their first Final Four, while the Spartans are in their 6th in the last 12 years.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Michigan State                    Butler

Power Ratings

 Strength:  #21                    Strength:  #26
Success:   #9                     Success:   #7
Combined:  #10                    Combined:  #8

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #19                    Strength:  #20
Offense:   #26                    Offense:   #46
Defense:   #30                    Defense:   #11

Special Analyses

2nd half of season:    #31        2nd half of season:    #17
NCAA tournament play:  #26        NCAA Tournament play:  #5
Road rating:           #15        Home court rating:     #29

 

Season overview: Michigan State (28-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(11): Gonzaga+4, Wofford+12, Oakland+31, Wisconsin+7, Minnesota+7, @Minnesota+1, @Purdue+9, =New Mexico St.+3, =Maryland+2, =Northern Iowa+7, =Tennessee+1
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(3): @Purdue+9, =Northern Iowa+7, =Tennessee+1
• Wins vs. Final Four teams(0): none
• Losses to tournament teams(6): =Florida-3, @Texas-11, @Wisconsin-18, Purdue-12, Ohio St.-7, =Minnesota-OT
• Other losses(2): @North Carolina-7, @Illinois-5
  

Key Info: As usual, Michigan State has exceeded their seed-expectation, which they seem to do routinely, and made it to the Final Four, which is officially a once every two years thing under Tom Izzo. With Lucas out with a torn Achilles' heel, the Spartans' shelf seemed questionable, but they did it again. Raymar Morgan and Dramond Green have been fantastic, and Korie Lucious has filled in admirably for Lucas.

Against New Mexico State the Spartans were a reflection of their season, looking good at times and sluggish at others. They couldn't quite put the Aggies away. They upped the intensity against Maryland and led while Lucas was in the game; they held the lead for about 10 minutes in the second half before it started slipping away. They showed a lot of heart in coming back from a halftime deficit to beat Northern Iowa, and they just plain outlasted Tennessee, sending Izzo back to the Final Four yet again.

   *********************************************************************************** 

Season overview: Butler (32-4)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(7): Ohio St.+8, Xavier+1, Siena+17, =Texas El Paso+18, =Murray St.+2, =Syracuse+4, =Kansas State+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(4): Ohio St.+8, Xavier+1, =Syracuse+4, =Kansas State+7
  
• Wins vs. Final Four teams(0): none
• Losses to tournament teams(3): =Minnesota-9, =Clemson-1, =Georgetown-7
• Other losses(1): @UAB-10
  

Key Info: Butler's winning streak is now 24 games, and their season's résumé is essentially the equal of anyone's at 32-4. Butler always seems to save the best for last, and this year is no exception.

Their star trio (Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack, and Matt Howard) all scored in double figures against UTEP, with Mack's 25 leading the way. Robert Nored led the team against Murray State with 15, then Hayward led against Syracuse with 17. Against Kansas State it was Hayward and Mack. This shows how much of a real team Butler is, and reflects why they've played so consistently this season. Now in the Final Four, they have at least partial home court advantage. "Home city" advantage, perhaps, which is pretty close to the real thing.

   ***********************************************************************************

Game Analysis: Michigan State plays once again without Kalin Lucas; Korie Lucious has done very well most of the time, with occasional slips. Butler is firing on all cylinders now with Hayward, Howard, and Mack. There will be some great guard and forward matchups among these two teams who both play without a center most of the time.

% Chance to win

Michigan St.   53%   add home court: 43%
Butler:        47%                   57%

Tempo-free
Michigan St.   51%   add home court: 44%
Butler         49%                   56%

Power rating spread

Full season, no home court:  Michigan St by  1.0
Full season, +  home court:  Butler      by  2.5   
2nd half of season:          Butler      by  2.4
tempo-free:                  Michigan St by  0.2
tempo-free, 2nd half:        Butler      by  3.2
tempo-free, 2nd half, add hc:Butler      by  5.4

Vegas Line:

Butler by  1 1/2

Their are so many ways to look at this game, given that Butler A) rates a lot better in tempo-free than raw stats, B) has played so much better in more recent games than full-year, and C) is basically playing at home. Without any of these considerations the Spartans are a 53% favorite. Just granting home court advantage makes Butler a 57% favorite.

As you can see, the more you count recent games instead of the full season, go tempo-free, and add home court advantage, the more Butler is the favorite. In the tournament, Butler has been a force, while Michigan State has scraped by; the Bulldogs are playing like a top five team (as are West Virginia and Duke), while the Spartans are borderline top 25 on average in their four wins. Just looking at those games? Butler is 9 points better so far. They've had to put away a #1 and #2 seed, while the Spartans beat a 4 and 6 seed by a point each.

A slight twist: Butler's not a very good home team. That is, they don't seem to have the full home court advantage in their home games, but it's close. And Michigan State has been an excellent road team this year. But that only gives Michigan State a point or two back—enough to match the Vegas spread of 1 1/2 points.

Bottom line: Faced with all these considerations that favor the Bulldogs, I'm forced to take them. Michigan State has done well without Lucas but the Bulldogs are playing like a championship team. The Spartans get to the Final Four a lot but are 2-3 in the opening game since 1999. They reached the final game last year, but they were playing in their home state. Now it's Butler's turn to parlay home advantage into a trip to the final game.

Final prediction:  Butler by 6
 

NCAA Tournament 2010 Results - Elite Eight Final Scores and Video: Michigan State and Duke in Final Four yet again

Well it's an interesting Final Four, but not because of Sunday's action. Duke and Michigan State advanced at the expense of Baylor (last Final Four—1950) and Tennessee (last Final Four—never).

Michigan State is in their sixth Final Four in the last twelve years; Duke in their 11th in the last 25. Only twice before have they been in the same Final Four, in 1999 and 2001. The two Final Four veterans join a couple of novices: Butler, who has never been, and West Virginia, only once, in 1959. 

As for Sunday's games, they were competitive to the end but ultimately anticlimactic.

Michigan State needed all 21 of Durrell Summers' points to beat Tennessee 70-69. Tennessee was up one when Raymar Morgan was fouled with 2 seconds left and made one of two free throws (missing the second one on purpose). Tennessee didn't get off a very good last-second shot.

All CBS has on YouTube is this boring video where Vern Lundquist says that Morgan made "two clutch free throws." The other video recaps (not posted by CBS) suck in terms of resolution or click through to other stupid videos. Oh well.

Duke and Baylor battled back and forth for most of the game, with one team occasionally building a slight lead. But the Blue Devils forged an eight-point advantage late, and a needless technical on Baylor pretty much sealed it with a minute left. Nolan Smith had 29 points and Jon Scheyer 20.

And another dull announcer-filled video. I don't know what CBSSports' problem is, it's a full day later and there are those stupid Sherlock Holmes ads in their videos anyway, so they should welcome embedding. Instead I have to embed these, ones that make their coverage look boring...

So if Tennessee and Baylor had won, we'd be guaranteed a winner that had never won the NCAA title before. Instead, there's a chance that it will be Duke and Michigan State going for their 4th and 3rd titles, respectively. No offense to the Spartans and Blue Devils, but I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of rooting for the Bulldogs and Mountaineers next weekend.

2010 NCAA Tournament Conference Performance at Final Four

As the Final Four has been slated, the Big East has taken a narrow lead on the Big Twelve as "best conference" based on teams placed and tournament wins. Tied overall, the Big Twelve lost both of their Elite Eight teams—Kansas State and Baylor—and the Big East wins the tiebreaker with West Virginia advancing.

If West Virginia or Butler wins the national championship, the Big East finishes on top. In fact, West Virginia just has to make the final, or have Butler beat Michigan State.

The Big Ten is in third and their finish depends on Michigan State. If the Spartans beat Duke to win it all, so does the Big Ten. If Duke wins the title game, or Butler beats the Spartans, then the ACC slips past the Big Ten into third place.

Each conference gets a point for teams placed in the tournament and a point for each team advanced. Ties go to the most recent round. Conferences with just 1 bid and no wins are not shown.

Here are the standings, color-coded in ROY G. BIV fashion, with teams remaining in parens:

Teams in tourney  Round of 32  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final Four  Title Game  Champion

Big East                8              4         2   1  1    (West Virginia)
Big 12               7                 5         2     2       
Big Ten         5              4         3     1  1          (Michigan State)     
ACC               6               4      1  1  1             (Duke)     
SEC            4         2     2     2      
Mt West        4         2    
Horiz.    *1* 1  1  1  1                                     (Butler)
Pac-10       2     2   1       
WCC          2     2   1       
Atl 10        3     1  1    
MVC       *1* 1  1   
Ivy       *1* 1  1   
MAC       *1* 1    
Ohio Val  *1* 1    
Col. Ath  *1* 1    
C-USA        2       
WAC          2     

Meanwhile the Horizon League, based just on Butler's tournament run, has moved into 7th by this measure. Another win and they'll move past the Mountain West into 6th place. The only conference locked into place is the SEC, which lost both Tennessee and Kentucky in the Elite Eight.

The Horizon moves past the Pac-10, West Coast, and Atlantic 10 conferences in the "second tier" of leagues this year.

NCAA Tournament 2010 Results - Elite Eight Final Scores and Video: West Virginia beats Kentucky

West Virginia knocked off top seed Kentucky to reach their first Final Four since the days of Jerry West, taking a double-digit lead and winning 73-66.

Four West Virginia players finished with 10 or more points. DaSean Butler, playing with an injured hand, led the team with 18 on 4-for-8 shooting on three-pointers. Right behind him was Joe Mazzulla, a senior who sparked the Mountaineers' Sweet Sixteen run two years ago. Mazzulla, who was out most of last season, broke through the Kentucky defense with several drives to the basket and finished with a career high 17. Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks added 13 and 12, with 15 rebounds between them.

Three-point shooting was the difference in the game. The Mountaineers made 10 of 23, or 43.5%, while Kentucky was horrible, making only 4 of 32 (12.5%). The Wildcats missed their first 20 attempts from behind the arc, while West Virginia didn't score a 2-point basket in the first half; they made eight three-pointers and four free throws to take a 28-26 halftime lead while missing all 16 2-pointers.

The narrow lead despite the disparity in 3-point shooting made it seem that, once things evened out, the Wildcats could take control. But that didn't happen; Kentucky continued to miss from long range, and West Virginia started making 2-point shots and Mazzulla came alive. His basket with 12 minutes left gave them a double-digit lead, then Ebanks' basket and free throws extended it to 16 points with 4:25 remaining.

Kentucky scrambled for a miracle comeback attempt, and made all four of their three-pointers in the last four minutes, but it was too little, too late. John Wall led the Wildcats with 19 points, and DeMarcus Cousins added 15. Both super-freshman will probably be gone next season, as will Patrick Patterson who had 13 rebounds to go with 8 points.

NCAA Tournament 2010 Results - Elite Eight Final Scores and Video: Butler Advances to Final Four

The Butler Bulldogs advanced to their first ever Final Four by beating Kansas State 63-56, becoming the first non-major-conference team to make the Final Four since George Mason in 2006 (Memphis did reach the Final Four in 2008, but they hardly count as a mid-major school and technically they vacated that showing anyway).

Butler played controlled basketball in contrast to Kansas State's sloppy, hurried offense and had a seven-point halftime lead, holding the Wildcats to a season low 20 points. But the Wildcats' defense kept them in the game as they had 11 steals and 6 blocks on the day, and in the second half they came back to take the lead with five minutes left.

But as they had all day, the Bulldogs' shots seemed to find the basket while Kansas State's bounced around and off the rim.

Gordon Hayward was a big problem for K-State all game (check out his fake-drive-step-back three pointer in the video), and he finished with 22 points. Shelvin Mack added 16. The Wildcats were lead by Denis Clemente's 18. Curtis Kelly and Jacob Pullen had 14 each, with nearly all of Kelly's in the first half and Pullen's in the second half.

For whatever reason CBS only has highlights for the first half of the game. I'll replace the video when the full game highlights are available.

2010 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Duke vs. (3) Baylor

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 1
Record: 32-5
Conference: ACC

vs.

Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 28-7
Conference: Big 12
 

Date: Sunday, March 28
Time: 5:05 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Region: South

Baylor plays close to home for a Final Four trip, while Duke seek their first Final Four since 2004.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Duke                              Baylor

Power Ratings

Strength:  #1                     Strength:  #11
Success:   #3                     Success:   #13
Combined:  #3                     Combined:  #12

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #1                     Strength:  #12
Offense:   #1                     Offense:   #8
Defense:   #3                     Defense:   #41

Special Analyses

2nd half of season:    #2         2nd half of season:    #8
Neutral court rating:  #2         Neutral court rating:  #11
Injury correction:     #1         Injury correction:     #17
Consistency adjustment:#1         Consistency adjustment:#19
Consistency (raw):     #232       Consistency (raw):     #115

 

Season overview: Duke (32-5)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(11): =Gonzaga+35, Clemson+21, Wake Forest+20, @Clemson+13, Florida St.+14, Georgia Tech+19, Maryland+21, =Georgia Tech+4, =Arkansas Pine Bluff+29, =California+15, =Purdue+13
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(1): =Purdue+13
• Losses to tournament teams(4): @Wisconsin-4, @Georgia Tech-4, @Georgetown-12, @Maryland-7
• Other losses(1): @North Carolina St.-14
  

Key Info: The Blue Devils had another typical Duke year: scads of wins, both the regular season and tournament season ACC champions, and another number one seed. It didn't hurt matter than North Carolina had a down year, of course. Their typical recent-years weakness—lack of a major inside presence—didn't hobble them as much this year, probably because the Plumlee twins (Miles and Mason, both 6-10) and 7-foot center Brian Zoubek helped out well at times.

But the team is still the guard-forward dominated, three-point shooting team it's been for the last five years at least. Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith do the bulk of the scoring, combining for over 50 points per game on average. This wasn't as evident in the first two games of the tournament as other players contributed, but against Purdue the trio scored 57 of the team's 70 points.

   ***********************************************************************************
 

Season overview: Baylor (28-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(11): =Xavier+5, Morgan St.+16, Oklahoma St.+13, @Texas+OT, Missouri+2, Texas A&M+4, Texas+15, =Texas+19, =Sam Houston St.+9, =Old Dominion+8, St. Mary's+23
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(2): =Xavier+5, St. Mary's+23
  
• Losses to tournament teams(5): @Kansas-6, Kansas St.-2, @Texas A&M-7, @Oklahoma St.-7, =Kansas St.-7
• Other losses(2): =Alabama-3, @Colorado-7
  

Key Info: Just four years after the disaster that was 2006, the Baylor Bears had a breakthrough 2010, winning 25 games and finishing the regular season in the AP top 25. Baylor's top-ten level offense features guards LaceDarious Dunn and Tweety Carter, and center Ekpe Udoh (who led the team with 20 points against Sam Houston State). The former two hit around 40% of their threes and the latter averages nearly a double-double. They don't play defense as well as offense, which harms their Final Four chances, but then again they're playing for it in Houston.

The win over Sam Houston State wasn't spectacular but they got the job done; the same could be said about the Old Dominion win. But against St. Mary's the team came alive and absolutely destroyed their opponent. Part of the reason has to be that they were playing in front of a partisan crowd in Houston. They'll have that home crowd advantage against against Duke.

   ***********************************************************************************

Game Analysis: Duke has been playing great for a few months, but Baylor played as well as they have all season on Friday night. If they can match that they'll beat the Blue Devils and go to the Final Four. It will be a tougher job against Duke, but the Bears' strong inside play and height advantage will test Duke's defense.

Baylor's home crowd advantage makes this game interesting, as does their interior height—a weakness for Duke in previous years where they've exited the tournament early. But Duke has some big inside players this year, and as long as the trio of Singler, Scheyer, and Smith can hit their shots—or, as against Purdue, their defense forces their opponent to shoot terribly—they can beat anyone.

% Chance to win

Duke:         70%                  58%
Baylor:       30%   w/home court:  42%

Power rating spread

Duke by   7.2       w/home court:  3.7   

Vegas Line:

Duke by   4

Duke is 70/30 and over a 7 point favorite strictly by the numbers. Give Baylor full home court advantage and it gets a lot closer, 58/42 and less than four points for the Blue Devils. Factor in how the teams have played in the last two months, though, and Duke is just a 2.6 point favorite, and Baylor a 1-point favorite with home court assigned. Since Baylor's not playing strictly at home, they should have only partial home court advantage, or "home crowd" advantage, perhaps. Tempo-free numbers give Duke a bit of a boost, too, so you have to work to construct a stat that really makes the Bears the favorite. The Vegas oddsmakers like Duke by 4, so some combination of the above factors is what they've decided on. 

The St. Mary's game notwithstanding, Baylor has no special home court advantage; that is, they have an average home court advantage. But Duke seems to have a major road-game disadvantage that isn't reflected above. They were just 5-5 in road games, accounting for all of their losses including a blowout loss to Georgetown and another lopsided loss to North Carolina State. Meanwhile Baylor is 16-1 at home.

Bottom line: I was set to pick Duke by a reasonable margin since they're the better team, Baylor hasn't shown an overwhelming home court advantage, and they're not strictly playing at home anyway. But Duke's road play is troublesome, and Baylor sure looked like they felt at home against St. Mary's. The Blue Devils have a way of killing dreams, though.

Final prediction: Duke by 2 in OT
 

2010 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (5) Michigan State vs. (6) Tennessee

Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 5
Record: 27-8
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Tennessee Volunteers
Seed: 6
Record: 28-8
Conference: SEC
 

Date: Sunday, March 28
Time: 2:20 pm Eastern
Location: St. Louis, MO
Region: Midwest

Tennessee is shooting for their first Final Four ever, while the Spartans made the trip just last year.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Michigan State                    Tennessee

Power Ratings

Strength:  #21 (#11 in field)     Strength:  #22 (#12 in field)
Success:   #12 (#10)              Success:   #9  (#8)
Combined:  #13 (#11)              Combined:  #10 (#9)

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #19                    Strength:  #27
Offense:   #28                    Offense:   #71
Defense:   #28                    Defense:   #6

Special Analyses

2nd half of season:    #35        2nd half of season:    #43
Neutral court rating:  #19        Neutral court rating:  #26
Injury correction:     #21        Injury correction:     #28
Consistency adjustment:#20        Consistency adjustment:#52
Consistency (raw):     #141       Consistency (raw):     #344

 

Season overview: Michigan State (27-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(10): Gonzaga+4, Wofford+12, Oakland+31, Wisconsin+7, Minnesota+7, @Minnesota+1, @Purdue+9, =New Mexico St.+3, =Maryland+2, =Northern Iowa+7
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(2): @Purdue+9, =Northern Iowa+7
  
• Losses to tournament teams(6): =Florida-3, @Texas-11, @Wisconsin-18, Purdue-12, Ohio St.-7, =Minnesota-OT
• Other losses(2): @North Carolina-7, @Illinois-5
  

Key Info: As usual, Michigan State has exceeded their seed-expectation, which they seem to do routinely. This year's model is led by Kalin Lucas' 14.9 ppg, and Raymar Morgan is still around putting up 11.5 points and 6.2 rebounds, though he's 2nd on the team to Dramond Green (7.9) in the latter category. With Lucas out for the rest of the tournament with a torn Achilles' heel, the Spartans' shelf life is questionable.

Against New Mexico State the Spartans were a reflection of their season, looking good at times and sluggish at others. They couldn't quite put the Aggies away. They upped the intensity against Maryland and led while Lucas was in the game; they held the lead for about 10 minutes in the second half before it started slipping away. They showed a lot of heart in coming back from a halftime deficit to beat Northern Iowa. The common thread is Michigan State's tournament overachievement last year and this year is coach Tom Izzo—he always has them ready to play.

   *********************************************************************************** 

Season overview: Tennessee (28-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(7): East Tennessee St.+12, Kansas+8, Florida+1, Kentucky+9, =San Diego State+3, =Ohio+15, =Ohio State+3
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(2): Kentucky+9, =Ohio State+3
  
• Losses to tournament teams(6): =Purdue-1, Vanderbilt-9, @Vanderbilt-19, @Kentucky-11, @Florida-13, =Kentucky-29
• Other losses(2): @Southern California-22, @Georgia-15
  

Key Info: When the brackets came out, I noticed that two of my favorites to go deep—Tennesee and Georgetown—were set to meet in the second round (doesn't that always happen?) Noting that both teams pulled many upsets but were erratic and vulnerable to being upset themselves, I figured I would choose a winner, advance that team to the Elite Eight, and make the other team a first-round upset victim (since they couldn't pass the second round anyway). Largely because Georgetown was playing a 14-seed, I chose Tennessee as the upset victim and the Hoyas as the Elite Eight squad. That's bracket logic for you—you can have the germ of a right idea yet end up completely wrong and mess up an entire region.

Tennessee does play erratically—they rank 344th out of 347 teams for consistency of performance (much of that due to the Tyler Smith incident). But over the last three games the Volunteers have been consistent and consistently good. To sustain it for three more games might be a stretch for this group, but they're capable of turning in another strong performance and getting to the Final Four.

   ***********************************************************************************

Game Analysis: Michigan State plays once again without Kalin Lucas, but Korie Lucious again did a great job filling in, with 10 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals. Tennessee's guards are quicker and/or taller than Northern Iowa's. Inside the Volunteers are tough, too, and Wayne Chism and Brian Williams have height on Raymar Morgan and Delvon Roe. There is a lot of talent in the frontcourt and backcourt of both teams. Meanwhile it's an interesting coaching duel between Izzo and Bruce Pearl.

% Chance to win

Michigan St.   50.2%   tempo-free: 52.6%
Tennessee:     49.8%               47.4%

Power rating spread

Michigan St by  0.1    tempo-free: 1.1   

Vegas Line:

Tennessee by  2

The raw numbers for the full-season couldn't be closer, with Michigan State winning 633 game-comparisons to Tennessee's 627, for a 50.2% majority. The average game is a Michigan State win by 1/10 of a point. For some better guidance we look at tempo-free stats which give the Spartans a bit of breathing room. Tennessee's unpredictability makes this a game to pick more on the teams' emotion, and I saw Tennessee have a lot of spark against Ohio State. The oddsmakers see Tennessee as a 2 point favorite.

Bottom line: I've picked Michigan State to lose the last two times, and picked against Tennessee in rounds one and three, so my track record with these teams is terrible. So maybe the team I choose is destined to lose. But I liked what I saw with the Volunteers on Friday; they've played better than the Spartans during the tournament, and that should happen again Sunday. It's only fair, since Michigan State has been hogging the Final Four and Tennessee has never been there.

Final prediction:  Tennessee by 4
 

NCAA Tournament 2010 Sweet Sixteen Results - Fridays's Final Scores & Video: Tennessee tops Ohio State

Tennessee is going to their first Elite Eight; Northern Iowa's dream season ends; Duke tops Purdue; and Baylor rolls St. Mary's. Friday's games on the whole weren't nearly as thrilling as Thursdays, with less exciting endings.

Tennessee beats sluggish Ohio State

 6 Tennessee      76 
 2 Ohio State     73 

Like Thursday night, there was only one upset (by seed numbers). The Tennessee Volunteers beat 2-seed Ohio State and are going to the Elite Eight for the first time. Tennessee played with vigor while Ohio State looked tentative and unenergized. The back-and-forth game took a Tennessee turn late and even Evan Turner's 31 points weren't enough, and his awkward last-second 3-pointer was blocked.

Wayne Chism scored 22 for the Volunteers; J.P. Prince 14

Strong second half helps Michigan State beat Northern Iowa

 5 Michigan State  59 
 9 Northern Iowa   52 

Northern Iowa's dream looked alive in the first half, as the Panthers held a 29-22 halftime lead. But several things hurt UNI: foul trouble, and unexpected misses at the free throw line. In the second half Michigan State came back gradually but relentlessly, with Durrell Summers' 19 leading the way. The Panthers' three-pointers weren't falling at the end—they were 4 of 16 for the game, with Ali Farokhmanesh only 1 of 6—and the Spartans advanced to their umpteenth Elite Eight.

South Region: Duke beats Purdue; Baylor destroys St. Mary's

 1 Duke           70     3 Baylor         72  
 4 Purdue         57    10 St. Mary's     49 

It was Singler, Scheyer, and Smith against Johnson and Moore as Duke pulled away from Purdue in the second half, winning 70-57 and, like Michigan State, reaching their bazillioth Elite Eight. But it's Duke's first Elite Eight since 2004. 

The first half was tight and back and forth, with tough defense, poor shooting and very little scoring; late baskets allowed Duke to take a 25-24 lead at the half. In the second half Duke took a small lead that grew later until the game was out of reach.

Kyle Singler had 24 points (including four three pointers) and John Scheyer added 18. Nolan Smith had 15, but the top scorers were 7 of 16, 7 of 17, and 5 of 15 from the field; overall Duke shot 40%. But Purdue shot just 37%, led by JuJuan Johnson's 23 and Etuan Moore's 18. That duo attempted 35 shots, nearly 2/3 of the Boilermakers' total. Singler, Scheyer, and Smith accounted for an amazing 87% of Duke's attempts.

Baylor took apart St. Mary's from the start and by the half the game was over, with the Bears leading 46-17. As expected Baylor's interior size frustrated Omar Samhan, but in the end St. Mary's big men accounted for 31 of their 49 points. But Baylor's guards, led by LaceDarius Dunn's 23 and Tweety Carter's 14, really killed the Gaels.

The Bears let up late in the second half and the final score didn't indicate how much of a blowout the game was. Baylor is just five years removed from losing half a season due to NCAA penalties, and now they've got a shot at the Final Four.

2010 NCAA Tournament Conference Performance at Elite Eight

At the Elite Eight juncture, the Big Twelve is in pole position as "best conference" based on teams placed and tournament wins. With two squads in the Elite Eight, they're going to be hard to overtake.

The Big East can still do so if West Virginia prevails and the Big Twelve stumbles; the Big Ten needs Michigan State to win it all and an losses by K-State and Baylor this weekend

The best the ACC (4th place) and the SEC (5th) can hope for is 2nd place. The ACC lost too many team prior to the Sweet Sixteen to have a good argument even if Duke wins the title, and the SEC is clearly top-loaded with Kentucky and Tennessee and not much else.

The Horizon League slides into 10th place on the strength of Butler alone; if the Bulldogs make the Final Four they'll jump to 7th, and a national title puts the conference at #6.

Each conference gets a point for teams placed in the tournament and a point for each team advanced. Ties go to the most recent round. Conferences with just 1 bid and no wins are not shown.

Here are the standings, color-coded in ROY G. BIV fashion, with teams remaining in parens:

Teams in tourney  Round of 32  Sweet 16  Elite 8  Final Four  Title Game  Champion

Big 12               7                 5         2     2       
Big East                8              4         2   1     
Big Ten         5              4         3     1     
ACC               6               4      1  1   
SEC            4         2     2     2      
Mt West        4         2    
Pac-10       2     2   1       
WCC          2     2   1       
Atl 10        3     1  1    
Horiz.    *1* 1  1  1   
MVC       *1* 1  1   
Ivy       *1* 1  1   
MAC       *1* 1    
Ohio Val  *1* 1    
Col. Ath  *1* 1    
C-USA        2       
WAC          2     

The SEC's top duo have revived some respect for the conference, though, as they're working their way into being a "Big Six" conference. Or "Big Five" this year, as the Pac-10 is clearly out in 2010. The Horizon has arguably joined the "Medium Five" conferences, made up of the Mountain West, Pac-10, West Coast, and Atlantic 10.

Missing a shot at being the #6 conference was the WCC with St. Mary's loss. Similarly, the Missouri Valley and Ivy League failed to join the middle pack conferences as UNI and Cornell lost.

2010 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Kentucky vs. (2) West Virginia

Kentucky Wildcats
Seed: 1
Record: 35-2
Conference: SEC

vs.

West Virginia Mountaineers
Seed: 2
Record: 30-6
Conference: Big East
 

Date: Saturday, March 27
Time: 7:00 pm Eastern
Location: Syracuse, NY 
Region: East

The only #1 vs. #2 seed regional final there will be in the tournament this year.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Kentucky                          West Virginia

Power Ratings

Strength:  #4  (#3 in field)      Strength:  #7 (#6 in field)
Success:   #2  (#1)               Success:   #6 (#5)
Combined:  #2  (#1)               Combined:  #6 (#5)

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #4                     Strength:  #7
Offense:   #10                    Offense:   #11
Defense:   #9                     Defense:   #22

Special Analyses

2nd half of season:    #3         2nd half of season:    #9
Neutral court rating:  #5         Neutral court rating:  #6
Injury correction:     #5         Injury correction:     #8
Consistency adjustment:#6         Consistency adjustment:#4
Consistency (raw):     #220       Consistency (raw):     #25

 

Season overview: Kentucky (35-2)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(11): Sam Houston St.+10, Louisville+9, @Florida+12, Vanderbilt+13, Tennessee+11, @Vanderbilt+2, Florida+8, =Tennessee+29, =East Tennessee St.+29, =Wake Forest+30, =Cornell+17
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(3): Tennessee+11,=Tennessee+29, =Cornell+17
  
• Losses to tournament teams(1): @Tennessee-9
• Other losses(1): @South Carolina-6
  

Key Info: With a team led by freshmen John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins and junior Patrick Patterson, the team has managed to grow up while consistently winning. They look raw at times and tend to play to the level of their competition, but they've almost always gotten the job done. I had Kentucky #1 pre-season, but I thought there would be many more losses along the way, especially early on.

The Wildcats handled their first two challenges with ease, by 29 and 30 points, respectively. After a rough start against Cornell, Kentucky took over and had doubled the Big Red's score by halftime. Of course these were 16, 9, and 12 seeds, with Cornell the only team that was playing impressive basketball lately. West Virginia figures to provide a stiffer test.

   ***********************************************************************************
 

Season overview: West Virginia (30-6)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(12): =Texas A&M+7, Marquette+1, Ohio St.+6, Louisville+3, Pittsburgh+19, Georgetown+13, @Villanova+OT, =Notre Dame+2, =Georgetown+2, =Morgan St.+27, =Missouri+9, =Washington+13
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(12): Ohio St.+6, =Washington+13
  
• Losses to tournament teams(5): @Purdue-15, @Notre Dame-2, Syracuse-1, Villanova-7, @Pittsburgh-OT
• Other losses(1): @Connecticut-11
  

Key Info: This might be West Virginia's best team. They were probably just as good last season, but they didn't win games like this year. Based on their accomplishments this year (#4 in the Success power rating), they had a good argument to be a 1-seed, but had to settle for a 2. After a rash of upset, they're the final Big East representative left in the field.

The Mountaineers' defense now ranks in the top 25 for the year, complementing their very strong offense. Forwards DaShawn Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Ebanks all average in double figures and all grab over six rebounds a game. Most remarkable about this team is their consistency: #25 for all teams in the NCAA, and best among Sweet Sixteen teams. They'll need to play their best to beat Kentucky, but they've been playing great 'ball the last three games, last game's 20+ turnovers notwithstanding.

   ***********************************************************************************

Game Analysis: Both teams are playing very well. They deserved to be high seeds, and they've lived up to the promise of that seeding. In every other region, either a 1 or a 2-seed lost, showing how hard it is to navigate the tournament with such a strong field.

West Virginia wants to play a half-court game, while Kentucky wouldn't mind running. West Virginia has to deal with Patterson and Cousins' interior play, as the Mountaineers don't have height to spare. Normally they'd even things out with their great half-court offense, but against Washington they were turnover-prone. Much of that was Washington's style disrupting the Mountaineers' style, but as much of it was the absence of starting point guard Darryl Bryant, who broke his foot last week. In addition, leading scorer Butler has an injured hand.

% Chance to win

Kentucky:        52% 
West Virginia:   48% 

Power rating spread

Kentucky by  1.4   

Vegas Line:

Kentucky by  4

These are both top ten teams, perhaps top five, and it should be a great game. My numbers show Kentucky with a very slight edge, with a slim majority of game-comparisons to their favor and just over a 1-point advantage. The oddsmakers are a little big higher on the Wildcats—probably due to the aforementioned injuries.

Bottom line: It should be an exciting game. If the Mountaineers get their offense working the way they want and slow the tempo down, they can beat the Wildcats. But if Kentucky is able to disrupt West Virginia the way Washington did, the Mountaineers will have a tough time winning the game. The injuries to West Virginia make it tough to pick them; and I had Kentucky winning this game in my brackets and have no reason to change my mind.

Final prediction: Kentucky by 3
 

2010 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (2) Kansas State vs. (5) Butler

Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 2
Record: 29-7
Conference: Big 12

vs.

Butler Bulldogs
Seed: 5
Record: 31-4
Conference: Horizon
 

Date: Saturday, March 27
Time: 4:30 pm Eastern
Location: Salt Lake City, UT   
Region: West

Butler is looking for their first Final Four appearance, which would take them home to Indianapolis.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Kansas State                      Butler

Power Ratings

Strength:  #5  (#4 in field)      Strength:  #31 (#14 in field)
Success:   #14 (#11)              Success:   #11 (#8)
Combined:  #8  (#7)               Combined:  #15 (#11)

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #5                     Strength:  #23
Offense:   #14                    Offense:   #49
Defense:   #11                    Defense:   #15

Special Analyses

2nd half of season:    #7         2nd half of season:    #20
Neutral court rating:  #4         Neutral court rating:  #30
Injury correction:     #6         Injury correction:     #30
Consistency adjustment:#5         Consistency adjustment:#22
Consistency (raw):     #89        Consistency (raw):     #50

 

Season overview: Kansas State (29-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(12): Xavier+15, @Nevada Las Vegas+15, Arkansas Pine Bluff+14, Texas A&M+23, Texas+9, @Baylor+2, Missouri+10, =Oklahoma St.+19, =Baylor+7, =North Texas+20, =Brigham Young+12, =Xavier+OT
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(4): Xavier+15, @Baylor+2, =Baylor+7, =Xavier+OT
  
• Losses to tournament teams(5): @Missouri-6, Oklahoma St.-4, Kansas-OT, @Kansas-17, =Kansas-8
• Other losses(2): =Mississippi-12, Iowa St.-OT
  

Key Info: Overshadowed by Kansas, the Wildcats have become a pretty consistent program and this might be their best year yet. Guards Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente are hot 3-point shooters that can give anybody trouble, and forwards Jamar Samuels and Curtis Kelly both average in double figures, too. Despite their success so far this season, they couldn't get over the hump and beat the rival Jayhawks, losing all three games this season, with the Jayhawks out of the tournament, is their path clear to the championship game?

The Wildcats have played well in beating North Texas and two of the more underrated teams in the field, BYU and Xavier. But they haven't been spectacular. They almost blew the Xavier game twice, needing Pullen to bail them out several times. But it's a credit to the team that they didn't get depressed when twice what looked like a sure win turned into an overtime. They kept their cool and continued to play their game.

   *********************************************************************************** 

Season overview: Butler (31-4)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(6): Ohio St.+8, Xavier+1, Siena+17, =Texas El Paso+18, =Murray St.+2, =Syracuse+4
  
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(3): Ohio St.+8, Xavier+1, =Syracuse+4
  
• Losses to tournament teams(3): =Minnesota-9, =Clemson-1, =Georgetown-7
• Other losses(1): @UAB-10
  

Key Info: Butler's winning streak is now 23 games, and their season's résumé is growing by leaps and bounds. Butler always seems to save the best for last, and this year is no exception.

Their star trio all scored in double figures against UTEP, with Shelvin Mack's 25 leading the way, but Robert Nored led the team against Murray State with 15, then Hayward led against Syracuse with 17. This shows how much of a real team Butler is, and reflects why they've played so consistently this season. Butler was considered a long shot to make the Final Four, but they're a game away, and once there they'd have home court advantage.

   ***********************************************************************************

Game Analysis: Kansas State hasn't faced any very high seeds yet but they've faced two very tough teams to Butler's one, so both teams are equally prepared. Both have a variety of scorers and play strong defense. Expect a lot of three-pointers and tough D.

% Chance to win

Kansas State:     67%    tempo-free  63%
Butler:           33%                37%

Power rating spread

Kansas State by  5.4     tempo-free: 4.3

Vegas Line:

Kansas State by   4

The Strength power rating makes the Wildcats a 2/3 favorite, by 5 or 6 points. Using tempo-free numbers Butler improves somewhat and is only a four point underdogs, agreeing with the current Vegas point spread. With both teams playing very consistently, there's nothing to make me argue this result.

Bottom line: So far I've picked the West region perfectly, and I had Kansas State going to the Final Four. There have been no injuries or disconcerting play from either team to cause me to go against that now; the only question is the point spread, and I'll punt and trust the computers and oddsmakers on that.

Final prediction: Kansas State by 4.
 

NCAA Tournament 2010 Sweet Sixteen Results - Thursday's Final Scores: Butler Shocks Syracuse, Kansas State wins epic battle

The Butler Bulldogs knocked off top-seeded Syracuse, and Kansas State won a double overtime battle with Xavier to advance to the Elite Eight. Kentucky and West Virginia advanced as well.

Butler forces Syracuse exit

 5 Butler         63 
 1 Syracuse       59 

The night's only upset—though not completely unexpected (shameless plug)—was 5-seeded Butler topping #1 seed Syracuse, 63-59 in Salt Lake City in the West regional.

Butler started strong and had a 10-point lead at the half as Syracuse looked flat. Much like the Northern Iowa-Kansas game, though, the top-seed came back and a win by the favorite seemed likely. But Butler turned it up every time the game was in jeopardy, and in the end the ball was bouncing their way. Two late Butler shots—including a three-pointer—got an amazing "shooter's roll" that sealed the game, both by Willie Veasley who had 13 points.

Gordon Hayward led with 17 and Shelvin Mack had 14 for the Bulldogs. The Orange were led by Wes Johnson's 17, Andy Rautins' 15, and Scoop Jardine's 14.

Pullen wins epic battle with Crawford

 3 Kansas State   101 2OT 
 6 Xavier          96 

It started off like a blowout—the Wildcats led 19-7 early—but turned into a dogfight for the ages between Jordan Crawford and Jacob Pullen in the West region.

Xavier took the lead by halftime, but Kansas State led by three with 15 seconds left, the Musketeers with the ball. The Wildcats tried to foul, but the ref didn't see the first foul and Terrell Holloway lofted up a "shot" after hearing the whistle, meaning he had three chances at the free throw line. He made all three, sending the game into overtime.

At the end of the first OT period, Kansas State again led by three with seconds left. This time Crawford pulled out a 35-foot shot and hit it, and once again K-State's late attempt clanked off the rim. Double overtime.

Finally, though, Kansas State put the game away for good, thanks to Pullen, who hit two clutch 3-pointers in the period. When it was over, there were individual scoring figures rarely seen in college basketball today. For Xavier, Crawford had 32 and Holloway 26. Pullen had 28 for Kansas State, hitting 6 of 12 three's, and Denis Clemente and Curtis Kelly had 25 and 21.

East Region: Kentucky tops Cornell; West Virginia defeats Washington

 1 Kentucky       62     2 West Virginia  69  
12 Cornell        45    11 Washington     56 

Two upstarts, 12th seeded Cornell and 11-seed Washington, saw their tournament runs come to an end Thursday.

The Big Red started strong, jumping to a 10-2 lead over befuddled Kentucky, before the Wildcats figured out that the interior game was their friend and that fast breaks were, too. By halftime it was 32-16 and though Kentucky suffered scoring droughts at times, their defense held Cornell at bay during those lulls. Demarcus Cousins led the Wildcats with 16; John Wall had seven rebounds and eight assists. Louis Dale had 17 for Cornell.

Meanwhile in the other East region final, West Virginia patiently put away rowdy Washington, 69-56, in a sloppy game that saw a total of 43 turnovers. Kevin Jones led the Mountaineers with 18.

2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (1) Duke vs. (4) Purdue

Duke Blue Devils
Seed: 1
Record: 31-5
Conference: ACC

vs.

Purdue Boilermakers
Seed: 4
Record: 29-5
Conference: Big Ten
 

Date: Friday, March 26
Time: 9:57 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Region: South

Duke and Purdue, consistent top 10 teams this year, face of for an Elite Eight berth.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Duke                              Purdue

Power Ratings

Strength:  #1 (#1 in field)       Strength:  #15 (#8 in field)
Success:   #4 (#3)                Success:   #5  (#4)
Combined:  #3 (#2)                Combined:  #5  (#4)

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #1                     Strength:  #13
Offense:   #1                     Offense:   #51
Defense:   #3                     Defense:   #4

Special Analyses

2nd half of season:    #2         2nd half of season:    #19
Neutral court rating:  #2         Neutral court rating:  #14
Injury correction:     #1         Injury correction:     #64
Consistency adjustment:#1         Consistency adjustment:#9
Consistency (raw):     #232       Consistency (raw):     #94

 

Season overview: Duke (31-5)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(10): =Gonzaga+35, Clemson+21, Wake Forest+20, @Clemson+13, Florida St.+14, Georgia Tech+19, Maryland+21, =Georgia Tech+4, =Arkansas Pine Bluff+29, =California+15
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(0): none
• Losses to tournament teams(4): @Wisconsin-4, @Georgia Tech-4, @Georgetown-12, @Maryland-7
• Other losses(1): @North Carolina St.-14
  

Key Info: The Blue Devils had another typical Duke year: scads of wins, both the regular season and tournament season ACC champions, and another number one seed. It didn't hurt matter than North Carolina had a down year, of course. Their typical recent-years weakness—lack of a major inside presence—didn't hobble them as much this year, probably because the Plumlee twins (Miles and Mason, both 6-10) and 7-foot center Brian Zoubek helped out well at times.

But the team is still the guard-forward dominated, three-point shooting team it's been for the last five years at least. Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith do the bulk of the scoring, combining for over 50 points per game on average. They only combined for 45 against Arkansas Pine Bluff, but there wasn't much urgency. Against California the trio had 44 against Cal, with Zoubek adding 14. This team is looking more and more like the old Duke teams in terms of their potential for a national title.

   ***********************************************************************************
 

Season overview: Purdue (29-5)

Wins vs. tournament teams(10): =Tennessee+1, Wake Forest+11, West Virginia+15, Minnesota+19, Wisconsin+3, @Michigan St.+12, @Ohio St.+3, @Minnesota+1, =Siena+8, =Texas A&M+OT

Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(4): =Tennessee+1, West Virginia+15, @Michigan St.+12, @Ohio St.+3

Losses to tournament teams(4): @Wisconsin-7, Ohio St.-4, Michigan St.-9, =Minnesota-27

Other losses(1): @Northwestern-8

Key Info: Before you count Purdue out of this game, look at their season. Both Duke and Purdue have ten wins over tournament teams, but none of Duke's victims made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Meanwhile, Purdue has more wins over Sweet Sixteen foes than any team still alive, beating Tennessee and Michigan State as well as 2-seeds West Virginia and Ohio State. With Robbie Hummel, Purdue would have as good of a shot as anyone in the field to win the national championship.

But eventually the absence of Hummel has to catch up to Purdue; if it hasn't already. Looking at the chart above, except for the Minnesota slaughter the Boilermakers haven't done that bad. Unfortunately, that level of play is roughly the low point Duke has hit over their last 15 games.

   ***********************************************************************************

Game Analysis: Duke has been playing lights out the last 15 games, while Purdue is struggling to stay above water. As noted in the statistics above, Purdue without Hummel ranks only #64. Of course the influence of their worst game (Minnesota) carries a lot of weight; using the five wins without Hummel, they're still a top 25 team, and I expect they'll continue to play that way. But I expect Duke will play like they have for last month or two—better than any team in the country.

% Chance to win

Duke:         73%
Purdue:       27%

Power rating spread

Duke by   7.8    

Vegas Line:

Duke by   8 1/2

And the Vegas oddsmakers seem to believe it, too. The difference between recent Duke and Hummel-less Purdue is about 8 1/2 points, and that's the consensus line on the game. Not only that, but Duke has been so consistently good that if Duke's last 15 are compared to Purdue's 5 best Hummel-less games, Purdue wins 12 of those 75 comparisons—barely. That's a 16% chance of winning.

Bottom line: The Blue Devils are on a roll. If Purdue was at full strength this would be a hell of a game, but they're not.

Final prediction: Duke by 12
 

2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (5) Michigan State vs. (9) Northern Iowa

Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 5
Record: 26-8
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Northern Iowa Panthers
Seed: 9
Record: 30-4
Conference: Missouri Valley
 

Date: Friday, March 26
Time: 9:37 pm Eastern
Location: St. Louis, MO
Region: Midwest

After knocking off this year's top overall seed, the UNI Panthers take on last year's NCAA tournament runner-up.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Michigan State                    Northern Iowa

Power Ratings

Strength:  #21 (#11 in field)     Strength:  #50 (#15 in field)
Success:   #13 (#10)              Success:   #9  (#7)
Combined:  #11 (#8)               Combined:  #17 (#12)

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #19                    Strength:  #35
Offense:   #28                    Offense:   #62
Defense:   #28                    Defense:   #21

Special Analyses

2nd half of season:    #35        2nd half of season:    #39
Neutral court rating:  #19        Neutral court rating:  #48
Injury correction:     #21        Injury correction:     #51
Consistency adjustment:#20        Consistency adjustment:#37
Consistency (raw):     #141       Consistency (raw):     #71

 

Season overview: Michigan State (26-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(9): Gonzaga+4, Wofford+12, Oakland+31, Wisconsin+7, Minnesota+7, @Minnesota+1, @Purdue+9, =New Mexico St.+3, =Maryland+2
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(1): @Purdue+9
  
• Losses to tournament teams(6): =Florida-3, @Texas-11, @Wisconsin-18, Purdue-12, Ohio St.-7, =Minnesota-OT
• Other losses(2): @North Carolina-7, @Illinois-5
  

Key Info: As usual, Michigan State has exceeded their seed-expectation, which they seem to do routinely. This year's model is led by Kalin Lucas' 14.9 ppg, and Raymar Morgan is still around putting up 11.5 points and 6.2 rebounds, though he's 2nd on the team to Dramond Green (7.9) in the latter category. With Lucas out for the rest of the tournament with a torn Achilles' tendon, the Spartans' shelf life is questionable.

Against New Mexico State the Spartans were a reflection of their season, looking good at times and sluggish at others. They couldn't quite put the Aggies away. They upped the intensity against Maryland and led while Lucas was in the game; they held the lead for about 10 minutes in the second half before it started slipping away. Korie Lucious—in for Lucas—hit the magical game-winner.

   *********************************************************************************** 

Season overview: Northern Iowa (30-4)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(4): Siena+17, Old Dominion+9, =UNLV+3, =Kansas+2
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(0): none
• Losses to tournament teams(0): none
  
• Other losses(4): =DePaul-8, @Wichita St.-9, @Bradley-9, @Evansville-1

Key Info: UNI is undefeated against NCAA tournament teams this year, and now they've played four of them. Though there were still quality teams on the Panther schedule, the Bracketbuster win over 11-seed Old Dominion was crucial for keeping their focus, which had slid sometimes this year such as in the loss at 9-21 Evansville. After all the talk about the Mountain West conference this year, UNI's win over UNLV—and certainly the Kansas win—gives their record legitimacy and the Missouri Valley some bragging rights.

UNI plays a controlled game, a style choice that is reflected in their efficiency stats: the Panthers rank 15 positions better in tempo-free Strength than raw Strength. Their top three scorers are a center, forward, and guard; the center is 7-1 Jordan Egleseder, who gives them the type of inside presence that is becoming rare these days. Cornell, UNI, and St. Mary's are three "mid-majors" with a key big man inside, and all made the Sweet Sixteen.

   ***********************************************************************************

Game Analysis: Michigan State escaped against Maryland, but without Kalin Lucas they lose more than just their stats—the team has to be questioning if they can win without him. Against Illinois with Lucas gone, and against Wisconsin when he got hurt, the Spartans played some of their poorest basketball. They nearly succumbed to Maryland's late pressure. Lucious is capable, as he showed at the end, but there's a big difference in the team. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is at full strength and wants to take care of business.

% Chance to win

Michigan St.   59%   tempo-free: 55%
Northern Iowa: 41%               45%

Power rating spread

Michigan St by  3.8  tempo-free: 2.1   

Vegas Line:

Michigan St by  1

The raw numbers favor Michigan State fairly comfortably, but if you look at scoring and defense on a per-possessing basis, UNI cuts the expected margin in half, from 4 to 2. And if you look at only more recent games—since mid-January—the Panthers are about a 1/2 point favorite. And this is without even taking Lucas' absence into consideration. The oddsmakers call it a close game, too, with some calling it a toss-up and most having the Spartans by a point.

Bottom line: To me, per-possession stats, and stats for the second half of the season, are more reliable than raw and full-season stats. The fact that UNI is favored on that basis is telling. The circumstances of this game—Michigan State without Lucas, UNI fired up—make me think the Panthers will advance to the Elite Eight.

Final prediction:  Northern Iowa by 6
 

2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen Previews, Odds, and Predictions: (3) Baylor vs. (10) St. Mary's

Baylor Bears
Seed: 3
Record: 27-7
Conference: Big 12

vs.

St. Mary's Gaels
Seed: 10
Record: 28-5
Conference: West Coast
 

Date: Friday, March 26
Time: 7:27 pm Eastern
Location: Houston, TX
Region: South

St. Mary's is one of five "mid-major" teams to make the Sweet Sixteen, but the Gaels have been good for as long as Baylor has.

Team Comparisons with SportsRatings Statistics

     Baylor                            St. Mary's

Power Ratings

Strength:  #13 (#7 in field)      Strength:  #26  (#13 in field)
Success:   #17 (#12)              Success:   #20  (#13)
Combined:  #12 (#9)               Combined:  #22  (#14)

Tempo-Free Ratings

Strength:  #12                    Strength:  #28
Offense:   #8                     Offense:   #13
Defense:   #41                    Defense:   #77

Special Analyses

2nd half of season:    #8         2nd half of season:    #32
Neutral court rating:  #11        Neutral court rating:  #27
Injury correction:     #17        Injury correction:     #31
Consistency adjustment:#19        Consistency adjustment:#24
Consistency (raw):     #250       Consistency (raw):     #115

 

Season overview: Baylor (27-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(10): =Xavier+5, Morgan St.+16, Oklahoma St.+13, @Texas+OT, Missouri+2, Texas A&M+4, Texas+15, =Texas+19, =Sam Houston St.+9, =Old Dominion+8
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(1): =Xavier+5
• Losses to tournament teams(5): @Kansas-6, Kansas St.-2, @Texas A&M-7, @Oklahoma St.-7, =Kansas St.-7
• Other losses(2): =Alabama-3, @Colorado-7
  

Key Info: Just four years after the disaster that was 2006, the Baylor Bears had a breakthrough 2010, winning 25 games and finishing the regular season in the AP top 25. Baylor's top-ten level offense features guards LaceDarious Dunn and Tweety Carter, and center Ekpe Udoh (who led the team with 20 points against Sam Houston State). The former two hit around 40% of their threes and the latter averages nearly a double-double. They don't play defense as well as offense, which harms their Final Four chances, but then again they're playing for it in Houston.

The win over Sam Houston State wasn't spectacular but they got the job done; the same could be said about the Old Dominion win. To get to the Final Four they have to beat a hot team that just knocked out Villanova, and then possibly a #1 seed, when they haven't beaten a team seeded higher than #5 all year. The Bears have a less-than-normal home court advantage this season, but St. Mary's has been a poor road team.

   ***********************************************************************************
 

Season overview: St. Mary's (28-5)

• Wins vs. tournament teams(6): New Mexico St.+32, San Diego St.+22, @Utah St.+5, =Gonzaga+19, =Richmond+9, = Villanova+7
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (0): none
• Losses to tournament teams(3): Vanderbilt-2, Gonzaga-7, @Gonzaga-19
  
• Other losses(2): =Southern California-11, @Portland-OT

Key Info: The Gaels continue to play their best basketball since early in the season. Richmond was the highest seed of any of the tournament teams that St. Mary's has vanquished. As expected Omar Samhan came up huge, scoring 29 points and pulling down 12 rebounds.

Though Baylor is considered less of a surprise Sweet Sixteen team, anyone following college basketball has known about St. Mary's for the last few years, when they've been every bit as good as Baylor. The fact that Baylor comes from a major conference gives them more exposure, but both teams were winning in 2008 and 2009, building up to this season.

   ***********************************************************************************

Game Analysis: A big difference between Villanova and Baylor is that Baylor has height. The Bears have two 7-footers they can throw at Samhan as well as two tall forwards. And St. Mary's scrappy Australian guards have to contend with Dunn and Carter.

% Chance to win

Baylor:         59%    w/home court: 70%
Old Dominion:   41%                  30%

Power rating spread

Baylor by      2.5     w/home court: 6.0 to 7.5 

Vegas Line:

Baylor by  4 1/2

As mentioned, St. Mary's is a poor road team, so if the Houston game is considered a road game they lose an additional 2 points. Fortunately for them, Baylor has a less-than-normal home court advantage by about 1/2 point themselves. Since it's not strictly a home court game I'd lean closer to the 6 point spread estimate myself.

Bottom line:  I had St. Mary's in the Sweet Sixteen but not Baylor; now that they're both here, though, I think Baylor will advance. The Bears had better show some life and play up to their potential, though, or they will be another victim of Samhan and the Aussies (wasn't that a 60s band?).

Final prediction: Baylor by 6