SportsRatings: College Basketball

#1 up for grabs again as Kentucky loses to South Carolina

Kentucky was literally King for a Day—or maybe two, at most.

The Wildcats had been #1 for little more than 24 hours when they suffered their first loss of the season at South Carolina, 68-62, on Tuesday night.

UK was a unanimous #1 in the Associated Press Top 25 released Monday but even a combined 46 points from super freshmen DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall couldn't keep their record unblemished. Cousins had 27 to go with 11 rebounds, but the Gamecocks' Devan Downey led all scorers with 30 points, and Brandis Raley-Ross added 17.

Kentucky led 29-26 at the half but South Carolina kept it close during the second half, as neither team took bigger than a six point lead. Down the stretch the Gamecocks held on to improve to 12-8. Kentucky, #4 in this week's SportsRatings Top 25, got just 9 points combined from Patrick Patterson (16 pt. ave.) and Eric Bledsoe (12 pt. ave.) and falls to 19-1 with no victories over top 25 opponents.

SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 - week 11. Should Kentucky be a unanimous #1?

19-0 Kentucky is the last remaining undefeated team and is a unanimous #1 in the latest AP poll. Unanimous. Not a single voter thinks they shoudn't be #1. Which makes it odd that we have them at #4. After all, the Wildcats were our pre-season #1 team, and they're the last remaining undefeated team. I love undefeated teams. I'll put an undefeated team #1 when no one else is. But Kentucky isn't deserving of the #1 spot yet, and I think some other teams should have at least garnered some first place votes. What arguments are there for holding UK out of the top spot?

First, they're probably not the best team in the country by a long shot. Our pre-season ranking is based on where we figured they'd be in March, and thus far they've impressed less than expected while racking up a much better record than we thought they would. In the Strength power rating they've broken into the top ten for the first time this year, sitting at #8. The #1 in Strength just happens to be our new top team this week, the Kansas Jayhawks, who now have two strong wins after beating Baylor last week.

#8 in Strength isn't bad, and there's no reason a team with a strong résumé can't be #1 despite not being the actual best team. But Kentucky doesn't even rank #1 in the Success power rating (they're #3). If you're the last undefeated team—especially at 19-0—it's very hard not to be #1 in the Success rating. Our #2 team, Villanova, is only #11 in Strength but is #1 in Success, and good wins over Mississippi and Georgetown give them the nod over Kentucky, too.

Another 1-loss team, Syracuse, takes our #3 spot. The Orange have only a loss to Pitt, and have a road win against West Virginia, and a decently strong overall schedule. Kentucky's schedule is #136 according to Kenpom.com, and 150th according to Jeff Sagarin. That makes them roughly similar to BYU. Would BYU be #1 in the AP poll if they were 21-0 rather than 20-1? No chance. And BYU's wins have been way more convincing—they rank #5 in Strength. But the Cougars' loss to Utah State puts them behind the Wildcats at #5.

Texas lost not once but twice and falls to #6. #7 Purdue recovered with two conference wins, while Tennessee stumbled at Georgia and fell one spot behind the Boilermakers, who beat them by a point on a neutral court in November. Georgetown's big win over Pitt puts them in the top ten, just ahead of Temple, whom they beat by a point at home earlier this season. Kansas State falls one spot to #11 after their huge win (Texas) was followed by a loss (at Oklahoma State)

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 11 (1-25-2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses; wins over Top 25
2	1	Kansas	18-1	L@Tenn-8;w@Temple+32,Baylor+6
3	2	Villanova	18-1	L@Temple-10;wMiss+12,Gtown+5
4	3	Syracuse	19-1	L@Pitt-10;w@WVA+1
5	4	Kentucky	19-0
6	5	BYU	20-1	L@UtahSt-10
1	6	Texas	17-2	L@UConn-14,@KSt-9;w=Pitt+16
9	7	Purdue	16-3	LOhioSt-4,@Nwest,@Wisc-7;wWVA+15,=Tenn+1
7	8	Tennessee	15-3	L@GA-14,@USC-22,=Purdue-1;wKU+8,Miss-ot
12	9	Georgetown	15-3	L OldDom-4,@Marq-3,@Vill-5;wTemp+1,@Pitt+8
13	10	Temple	17-3	L St.J's-7,@Gtown-1,KU-32;wVill+10,VTech+11,RI-ot
10	11	Kansas St.	16-3	L@Mizz-6,@OKst-4,=Miss-14;wTex+9
17	12	West Virginia	15-3	L@ND-2,@Purdue-15,Syr-1;wMiss+10
19	13	Michigan St.	17-3	L=FLA-3,@NC-7,@Tex-11;wGonz+4,Wisc+7
22	14	Gonzaga	16-3	LWake-2,@MichSt-4,=Duke-37;w=Wisc+13
20	15	Virginia Tech	15-3	L@NC-14,@FSU-5,@Temp-11;wMiami+15
21	16	UAB	17-2	L@KentSt-7,@Virg-9
--	17	Wisconsin	16-4	L@WisGB-ot,@OSU-9,=Gonz-13,@MSU-7;wPur+7,Duke+4
8	18	Pittsburgh	15-4	L=Ind-10,@Seton-3,=Tex-16,Gtown-8;wSyr+10,WichSt+13
11	19	Baylor	15-3	L=Ala-3,@Col-7,@KU-6
14	20	Rhode Island	15-3	L@VCU-2,Xav-5,Temp-ot
15	21	Duke	16-3	L@NCst-14,@GTech-4,@Wisc-4
16	22	Mississippi St.	15-4	LRider-14,=Rich-1,@WKy-3,@Alab-5;w@Miss+5
23	23	Mississippi	15-4	LMissSt-5,=Vill-12,@WVA-10,@Tenn-ot;w=KanSt+14
18	24	N. Iowa	17-2	L=DePaul-8,@WichSt-9
25	25	Wichita St.	17-4	L@Drake-14,@Creight-1,@IllSt-15,=Pitt-13;wNIowa+9
		out:
24	--	Miami	15-4	L@BC-1,BC-4,@Virg-18,@VTech-15

West Virginia beat 2-loss Marshall and Ohio State and jumps 5 positions to #12; Michigan State leaps 6 spots to #13; and Gonzaga makes the biggest jump of all, from 22 to #14. The Bulldogs notched 2 wins but like the Spartans picked up another top 25 victory with Wisconsin's entry into the rankings.

The #17 Badgers follow Virginia Tech and UAB, neither of whom has a top 25 win as Miami falls out. UAB is one of only three 2-loss teams left. Wisconsin's wins over Duke and Purdue give them a nearly matching résumé to Pittsburgh, but the Panthers' earlier loss to Indiana is the tiebreaker. Pitt fell to Georgetown and Seton Hall last week, dropping from #8 to #18.

The next four teams also lost: Baylor, losers to Kansas, dropped 8 spots; Rhode Island lost to Xavier and fell 6 spots; Duke is a tough team (#2 Strength) but has a poor résumé and lost to Georgia Tech, falling to #21; and Mississippi State suffered their 4th loss (to Alabama) and came to rest one spot above Mississippi, whom they beat a few weeks ago. The Rebels hold at #23, with 4 losses but none of them outside the top 25.

Northern Iowa lost their 2nd game and nearly fell out of the top 25, as they have no strong wins to back them up, and are hampered by a loss to DePaul. They fell to #24, one spot above the team that beat them. Wichita State held at #25; their big win over UNI was balanced by a bad loss to Drake. Both of these MVC teams are on the verge of falling out. Only Miami did fall out, however, as they suffered their 4th loss (and 2nd loss to Boston College this year) with no offsetting big victories.

Will Kentucky keep winning and get to #1? Stay tuned.

Kansas State defeats Texas, 71-62: Who should be #1 now?

#1 Texas suffered its first loss of the season Monday night at #10 Kansas State. Come next week, who should be #1?

Given that the latest polls just came out, there are a lot of games between now and then. Taking those possibilities into account, we'll look at which team stakes the best claim to the #1 spot in the SportsRatings Top 25 if they win out through Sunday. Here are five teams with a good argument:

• Kansas (16-1): as the current #2 team, it makes sense that they should be first in line to take over the top spot. But their résumé isn't really any better than the other candidates; they have a loss to a top 25 team (#7 Tennessee) and a win over another one (#13 Temple). Their win was by 32 points, which helps, and generally they've dominated games, ranking best in Strength of all the candidates. And beating Baylor would give them another quality win, so the Jayhawks are in pole position. Schedule this week: #11 Baylor; at Iowa State.
• Villanova (16-1): The #3 Wildcats currently have the best résumé in the nation, with two top 25 wins (#12 Georgetown and #23 Mississippi) and one top 25 loss (at #13 Temple). But they won't add to it this week and Kansas is likely to catch up, meaning that their chances of jumping over the Jayhawks are slim. Just comparing games against Temple (Kansas won by 32, Villanova lost by 10) makes it look like the #2 slot is the best they can hope for unless KU falters. Schedule this week: at Rutgers; at St. John's.
• Syracuse (18-1): The Orange have the best record of any 1-loss team and have a road win over #17 West Virginia to offset their loss to #8 Pitt. They beat Notre Dame on Monday, but don't face another ranked team until next Monday when they face Georgetown. Syracuse's odds of leaping from #4 to #1 aren't very high, but there is at least an argument for considering them. Schedule this week: Won at Notre Dame 84-71; Marquette.
• Kentucky (18-0): The #5 Wildcats have the best record, period, in the country right now and are the only undefeated team. They're #2 in the AP and the Coaches poll. So what's keeping them from the top spot at SportsRatings? Simply, they haven't faced any of the top teams in the country, and they aren't winning all that convincingly. In the Strength Power Rating Kentucky languishes at #14. The Success ratings are perhaps more important—you can't argue with Success, as they say—but even there, undefeated UK is only 4th. A weaker schedule + narrow wins + only playing 8-9 Arkansas at home this week = no #1 for the Wildcats, at least not just yet. Schedule this week: Arkansas.
• Texas (17-1): Could the Longhorns remain #1? After all, Kentucky isn't likely to grab the top spot unless other teams lose, so why not Texas among the 1-loss teams? They have a strong win over #8 Pitt (16 points), and a road loss to a top ten team, making their résumé almost as good as anyone's. The head-to-head comparison with Syracuse is clearly in Texas' favor due to common foe Pittsburgh. But by week's end Villanova and Kansas will likely both have better arguments than Texas, who travels to UConn in a game that has lost some of its luster due to the Huskies' 12-6 record. Schedule this week: Lost at Kansas State 71-62; at Connecticut.

So if everything goes to plan—no more upsets—the likely result in the SportsRatings Top 25 will be:

1. Kansas
2. Villanova
3. Texas
4. Syracuse
5. Kentucky

But then again if everything always went to plan, we wouldn't be talking about needing to replace the #1 team in the first place!

SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 - week 10

As we mentioned yesterday, there were a lot of close calls Saturday that could have turned this weekend into a bloodbath for the top 25; instead only Purdue fell from the top five while former top tens Miami and Baylor took a hit,too.

Texas remained #1 at 17-0, winning in overtime against Texas A&M. Kansas remained #2 with a much easier win over Texas Tech following a road victory over Nebraska. Pushing them at #3 is Villanova, who beat Georgetown on Sunday giving them two top 25 wins. Still, both teams are an equal 16-1 and common foe Temple is a good argument for the Jayhawks.

Syracuse held on to be West Virginia, giving them an arguably better résumé than undefeated Kentucky, who still lacks a top 25 win; the Orange jump both the Wildcats and BYU, who holds steady at #6. The Cougars mauled Air Force and Colorado State this week but lose their top 25 win with UNLV's exit.

Two more close-callers, Tennessee and Pittsburgh, follow at #7 and #8; both won in overtime Saturday. The Volunteers beat Mississippi, giving them another strong win, while Pitt edged Louisville. Purdue, now loser of three straight, falls to #9. They still have two solid wins, including one over Tennessee.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 10 (1-18-2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses; win over Top 25
1	1	Texas	17-0	w=Pitt+16
2	2	Kansas	16-1	L@Tenn-8;w@Temple+32
3	3	Villanova	16-1	L@Temple-10;wMiss+12,Gtown+5
7	4	Syracuse	17-1	L@Pitt-10;w@WVA+1
5	5	Kentucky	18-0
6	6	BYU	18-1	L@UtahSt-10;wUNLV+1
10	7	Tennessee	14-2	L@USC-22,=Purdue-1;wKU+8,MissOT
11	8	Pittsburgh	15-2	L=Ind-10,=Tex-16;wSyr+10,WichSt+13
4	9	Purdue	14-3	LOSU-4,@Wis-7,@Nw-8;wWVA+15,=Tenn+1
17	10	Kansas St.	15-2	L@Mizz-6,=Miss-14;w@UNLV+15
9	11	Baylor	14-2	L=Ala-3,@Col-7;wOKst+13
12	12	Georgetown	13-3	L OldDom-4,@Marq-3,@Vill-5;wTemp+1
13	13	Temple	15-3	L StJn-7,@Gt-1,KU-32;wVill+10,VT+11,RIot
14	14	Rhode Island	14-2	L@VCU-2,TempOT;wOKst+4
22	15	Duke	15-2	L@Wisc-4,@GTech-4
--	16	Mississippi St.	15-3	LRider-14,=Rich-1,@WKy-3;w@Miss+5
15	17	West Virginia	13-3	L@ND-2,@Purdue-15,Syr-1;wMiss+10
21	18	N. Iowa	16-1	L=DePaul-8
--	19	Michigan St.	15-3	L=FLA-3,@NC-7,@Tex-11;wGonz+4
20	20	Virginia Tech	13-3	L@NC-14,@FSU-5,@Temp-11;Miami+15
25	21	UAB	15-2	L@KentSt-7,@Virg-9
--	22	Gonzaga	14-3	LWF-2,@MichSt-4,=Duke-37;w@StMary+7
16	23	Mississippi	13-4	LMissSt-5,=Vill-12,@WVA-10,@TNot;w=KSt+14
8	24	Miami	15-3	L@BC-1,@Virg-18,@VTech-15
18	25	Wichita St.	16-3	L@IllSt-15,@Creighton-1,=Pitt-13
		out:
19	--	Oklahoma St.	13-4	L@Tulsa-21,@OKot,@Baylor-13,@RI-4
23	--	UNLV	14-4	L Utah-4,=USC-11,KanSt-15,@BYU-1
24	--	St. Mary's	16-3	L=USC-11,Vandy-2,Gonz-7

Kansas State jumps to #10 as one of the few 2-loss teams left. Baylor was handed their 2nd loss (by Colorado) but rebounded to beat former #19 Oklahoma State; they fall just 2 spots.

#12 Georgetown holds steady at #12 after losing at Villanova, maintaining their spot ahead of Temple and Rhode Island.

#15 Duke pulled away from Wake Forest Sunday and leaps 7 spots, still with a fairly mild top 25 résumé in term of big wins. The same goes for #18 Northern Iowa, who does face #25 Wichita State this coming week. West Virginia dips a couple of spots for their narrow loss to Syracuse.

Mississippi State should have been in the top 25 last week and I inadvertantly omitted them; hence the jump to where they would have been, just ahead of Mississippi whom they beat a week ago Saturday. Speaking of the Rebels, the Tennessee loss was their fourth, but all are to top 25 teams so they remain in, falling to #23.

Michigan State and Gonzaga debut at #19 and #22. The Spartans have a win over the Bulldogs, who beat St. Mary's last week. Virginia Tech holds at #20 in a week where they crushed former top ten Miami but lost to Florida State. The Canes also lost to Virginia badly on the road and drop from #8 to #24. UAB slides up several notches while Wichita State, a 1-point loser to Creighton, just holds on to the #25 slot.

Oklahoma State, UNLV, and St. Mary's all drop out of the top 25. Teams close to the top 25 ("others receiving votes") include Louisiana Tech (17-2) and New Mexico (16-3) who beat the Bulldogs; and Marshall, the only other 2-loss team not on the rankings. Vanderbilt and Tulsa have wins over two teams that drop from the rankings (Oklahoma State, St. Mary's) and just three losses apiece. Other 3-loss contenders include Harvard and William & Mary. All the other 3-loss teams with strong résumés suffered losses, including Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Dayton, FSU, Georgia Tech, Missouri, and Missouri State.

Close calls: Texas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Tennessee, Pitt win by a hair

It could have been a huge day of upsets Saturday in the SportsRatings Top 25 but the higher-ranked teams pulled it out, with #1 Texas, #5 Kentucky, #7 Syracuse, #10 Tennessee, and #11 Pittsburgh all winning in overtime or sealing a victory in the final seconds. #4 Purdue wasn't as lucky, losing their third in a row.

How the SportsRatings Top 25 fared (Saturday Jan. 16, 2010):

1. Texas (17-0) beat Texas A&M 72-67 OT. The Longhorns had to comeback to force overtime at home. Damion James scored 26 points for Texas.
2. Kansas (16-1) beat Texas Tech 89-63. KU took a 42-18 halftime lead to beat the Red Raiders.
3. Villanova (15-1) plays at #12 Georgetown Sunday.
4. Purdue (14-3) lost to Northwestern 72-64. The Boilermakers lost their third straight game while the 13-4 Wildcats look like they're for real.
5. Kentucky (18-0) beat Auburn 72-67. Same score as fellow undefeated team Texas, but in regulation not overtimeUK keeps winning, but just barely; it was a 1 point game with under 10 seconds left.
6. BYU (18-1) beat Colorado State 91-47. The Cougars continue their dominant play.
7. Syracuse (17-1) beat #15 West Virginia 72-71. The Orange almost blew a sizable late lead but held on for a big road victory.
8. Miami (15-3) lost to Virginia 75-57. The Hurricanes' season hits a rough patch as they lose their 2nd straight road game by double figures.
9. Baylor (14-2) beat #19 Oklahoma State 83-70. The Bears bounce back from a loss to Colorado earler in the week with a big home win.
10. Tennessee (14-2) beat #16 Mississippi 71-69 OT. Somehow the Volunteers keep doing it. Bruce Pearl changed his team's strategy to deal with key absenses, and deserves huge credit as a coach, managing to beat another top 25 team using six scholarship players and three walkons.
11. Pittsburgh (15-2) beat Louisville 82-77 OT. Like Texas, Pitt trailed most of the the game at home before forcing overtime and winning behind Nasir Robinson's 26 points.
12. Georgetown (13-2) plays #3 Villanova Sunday.
13. Temple (15-3) beat Massachusetts 76-64. The Owls remain undefeated in Atlantic 10 play.
14. Rhode Island (14-2) beat Fordham 85-67.
15. West Virginia (13-3) lost to #7 Syracuse. The home crowd was feeling the upset near the end but the Mountaineers couldn't quite scrape their way back at the end.
16. Mississippi (13-4) lost to #10 Tennessee 71-69 OT.
17. Kansas State (15-2) beat Colorado 87-81. The Wildcats get a decent road win before Monday's showdown with Texas in Manhattan.
18. Wichita State (16-3) lost to Creighton 57-56. The Shockers fell behind in the 2nd half on the road and couldn't come closer than 1 point.
19. Oklahoma State (13-4) lost to #9 Baylor 83-70. The Cowboys 2nd straight road loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play.
20. Virginia Tech (13-3) lost to FSU 63-58. The Hokies can't quite sweep the state of Florida in ACC play after beat Miami earlier in the week.
21. Northern Iowa (16-1) beat Indiana State 62-40. The Panthers' 15th straight win ought to put them in the AP top 25.
22. Duke (14-2) plays Wake Forest Sunday.
23. UNLV (14-4) lost to Utah 73-69. A poor effort at home for the Runnin' Rebels, losing to the 9-8 Utes.
24. St. Mary's (16-3) beat Portland 77-72. The Gaels bounce back at home after losing to Gonzaga earlier this week.
25. UAB (15-2) beat SMU 63-62. Yet another top 25 close call, the Blazers trailed by 24 in the 2nd half before mounting a huge comeback on the road and held on for the win.

Key games involving teams just outside the top 25:

• New Mexico 70, Wyoming 68 - The 16-3 Lobos try to crack the top 25 but UNLV's loss hurts them.
• Marshall 89, Tulane 79 - At 15-2, the Thundering Herd are a strong candidate.
• Coastal Carolina 75, High Point 58. The Big South's top team is 17-3 but a loss earlier in the week kills their chances.
• Michigan State 73, Illinois 63 - The Spartans are 15-3 with wins over Wisconsin and Gonzaga and will be in next week's rankings.
• William & Mary 73, Hofstra 66 - The Tribe are 14-3—and still stuck behind Harvard, who beat them in three overtimes.
• Gonzaga 68, San Diego 50 - The 14-3 'Zags need Wake Forest, William & Mary, and Harvard to move in ahead of them (or lose), but a mid-week win over #24 St. Mary's could help slide the whole group into the top 25...
• Wisconsin 51, Ohio State 60 - With wins over Purdue and Duke, the Badgers were looking like a top 25 shoo-in some day, but this loss—their 4th—sets them back.
• Vanderbilt 89, South Carolina 79 - The 14-3 Commodores are one step closer.
• Missouri 61, Oklahoma 66 - A road loss ends the Tigers' hopes for now
• Northwestern 72, #4 Purdue 64 - The Wildcats get a huge win, but it follows a loss to Wisconsin that keeps them behind the Badgers.
  
• Notre Dame 58, Cincinnati 60 - The Irish's 4th loss keeps them out of consideration for now, too.
• Dayton 74, Xavier 78 - The Flyers lose their 4th game of the year.
• Florida State 63, #20 Virginia Tech 58 - A good win, but it follows a loss to N.C. State at home.
• Georgia Tech 73, North Carolina 71 - The Yellow Jackets took a huge early lead and held on to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill, but that doesn't mean as much this year as the Tar Heels are now 12-6.
• Missouri State 56, Bradley 74 - Following a mid-week loss to Drake, this puts the 13-5 Bears out of the picture for the foreseeable future.
• Tulsa 90, Central Florida 70 - The Golden Hurricane are 14-3 now, but their biggest win (Oklahoma State) was diminished by the Cowboy's 2 losses this week, making them a longshot.

Texas vs. Kentucky: Who stays undefeated?

It's down to two undefeated teams in college basketball. Seems like just days ago their were five or six, then all of a sudden—BAM—the favorites fell. Texas and Kentucky are the last two teams standing. Which one has a better chance of going undefeated?

Using the game-rating comparison system, we'll map out each game's %, and multiply them through to find the percentage chance that the system yields. Adding the percentages gives number of expected wins.

First, the #1 Texas Longhorns, currently 15-0:

Date         Opponent      % to win
Wed, Jan 13  @ Iowa St.       81%
Sat, Jan 16    Texas A&M      91%
Mon, Jan 18  @ Kansas St.     54% 
Sat, Jan 23  @ Connecticut    68%    
Wed, Jan 27    Texas Tech     92%   
Sat, Jan 30    Baylor         84%       
Mon, Feb 1   @ Oklahoma St.   76%  
Sat, Feb 6   @ Oklahoma       87%
Mon, Feb 8     Kansas         54%
Sat, Feb 13    Nebraska       94%   
Wed, Feb 17  @ Missouri       53%   
Sat, Feb 20  @ Texas Tech     82%   
Wed, Feb 24    Oklahoma St.   88%            
Sat, Feb 27  @ Texas A&M      78%  
Mon, Mar 1     Oklahoma       95%  
Sat, Mar 6     Baylor         84%  
By Favorites:                31-0
By Cumulative Projection:    28-3
% chance to go 31-0:         1.67%

From this we see Texas should be favored in every upcoming game, even against Kansas and on the road against Kansas State, though just barely. But while they're favored to go 31-0, they're projected to go 28-3, with just a 1.67% chance of actually winning the rest of their games. For comparison's sake, Kenpom.com has Texas the underdog in two games (@Kansas State, @Missouri), but projects the same 28-3 and gives the Longhorns a 1.39% chance of going unbeaten.

Now Kentucky, a surprising 17-0 even though they were our #1 pick pre-season.

Date         Opponent      % to win
Sat, Jan 16  @ Auburn         82%
Sat, Jan 23    Arkansas       91%
Tue, Jan 26  @ S. Carolina    65%
Sat, Jan 30    Vanderbilt     62%
Tue, Feb 2     Mississippi    68%
Sat, Feb 6   @ LSU            84%
Tue, Feb 9     Alabama        87%
Sat, Feb 13    Tennessee      57%
Tue, Feb 16  @ Miss. St.      46%
Sat, Feb 20  @ Vanderbilt     46%
Thu, Feb 25    S. Carolina    84%
Sat, Feb 27  @ Tennessee      37%
Wed, Mar 3   @ Georgia        80%
Sun, Mar 7     Florida        78%
By Favorites:                28-3
By Cumulative Projection:    27-4
% chance to go 31-0:         0.35%

Kentucky has just 14 games left to Texas' 16, but they'll be underdogs in three games according to this system, and are projected to have four losses. Worse, the odds of the team going undefeated are only 0.35%, about 1 in 300. Kenpom.com agrees, with Kentucky as underdogs in the same three games, a cumulative projection of 27-4, but a more-generous 0.62% chance of winning all 31 (in other words, a 1 in 150 chance).

What Kentucky has going for it is they're getting better by the day. Though Texas is better right now, Kentucky is closing the gap. It's remarkable that they've made it undefeated this far, so if either team is going to do it I'd take the Wildcats.

But no team has gone undefeated in the regular season since St. Joe's in 2004, and no team has entered the NCAA tournament undefeated since UNLV in 1991. What used to be a common occurrence became a rarity after the '70s, so it's no surprise that the odds of both of these teams doing it is something like 1 in 17,000.

2010 SportsRatings Top 25, week 9 - Texas at #1

Now that the conference seasons are in full swing, we're resurrecting the SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25, with no pre-conceived notions from the pre-season rankings. Diving right in, we notice that there are 25 teams with 2 or fewer losses through Sunday's games; that was our starting point. There is a massive number of 3-loss teams with big wins but only a few make the cut.

Texas fell short in football but is #1 in basketball so far. Their win over Pitt gives them a top 25 win to go with their unblemished record. Kansas and Villanova aren't far behind, each having a top 25 win and a loss to a top 25 team; KU beat Temple while the Wildcats lost, putting the Jayhawks logically at #2.

It was a close battle for #4 but Purdue's two top 25 wins gave them the slot; as we'll see, Wisconsin is one of the 3-loss teams that creates such a log jam just below the rankings. Kentucky is 16-0 but has had a pretty easy schedule and barely won many of their games. By the end of the year they might be the best team (they were our pre-season #1) but for now they're #5.

#6 BYU has a solid win over UNLV and just one loss, while Syracuse has no big wins but has only lost to Pittsburgh. They're followed by Miami and Baylor, two 1-loss teams that have yet to prove themselves but are winning lots of games and each has only a very narrow loss.

The #10 spot goes to Tennessee, the highest-rated team with 2 losses. They got beat handily by USC but nearly beat Purdue in addition to their recent upset of Kansas. And that with four players missing! Losing Tyler Smith is a big blow and their future is very uncertain but they've shown how good they can be even without those players—at least at home. The road might be a completely different story.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 9 (1-11-2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses; win over Top 25
--	1	Texas	15-0	w=Pitt+16
--	2	Kansas	14-1	L@Tenn-8;w@Temp+32
--	3	Villanova	14-1	L@Temple-10;wMiss+12
--	4	Purdue	14-1	L@Wisc-7;wWVA+15,=Tenn+1
--	5	Kentucky	16-0
--	6	BYU	16-1	L@UtahSt-10;wUNLV+1
--	7	Syracuse	15-1	L@Pitt-10
--	8	Miami	15-1	L@BC-1
--	9	Baylor	13-1	L=Ala-3
--	10	Tennessee	12-2	L@USC-22,=Purdue-1;wKU+8
--	11	Pittsburgh	13-2	L=Ind-10,=Texas-16;wSyr+10,WichSt+13
--	12	Georgetown	12-2	L OldDom-4,@Marq-3;wTemp+1
--	13	Temple	13-3	L StJn-7,@Gt-1,KU-32;wVill+10,VT+11,RIot
--	14	Rhode Island	12-2	L@VCU-2,TempOT;wOKst+4
--	15	West Virginia	12-2	L@ND-2,@Purdue-15;wMiss+10
--	16	Mississippi	12-3	LMissSt-5,=Vill-12,@WVA-10;w=KanSt+14
--	17	Kansas St.	13-2	L@Mizz-6,=Miss-14;w@UNLV+15
--	18	Wichita St.	15-2	L@IllSt-15,=Pitt-13
--	19	Oklahoma St.	13-2	L@Tulsa-21,@RI-4
--	20	Virginia Tech	12-2	L@NC-14,@Temp-11
--	21	N. Iowa	14-1	L=DePaul-8
--	22	Duke	13-2	L@Wisc-4,@GTech-4
--	23	UNLV	13-3	L=USC-11,KanSt-15,@BYU-1
--	24	St. Mary's	15-2	L=USC-11,Vandy-2
--	25	UAB	14-2	L@KentSt-7,@Virg-9

Pittsburgh is an interesting case; for their two big wins and excusable loss to Texas they would be in the top 10—if not for their inexplicable loss to Indiana. So for now they're just outside.

#11 Georgetown barely beat #12 Temple, who barely beat #13 Rhode Island. The Owls have three big wins, best of any team, but also have three losses. A similar situation is seen at #15-17, where West Virginia beat Mississippi who beat Kansas State. Two of Mississippi State's losses are to top 25 teams, cushioning the fact that they have three overall.

The teams from 18 to 20—Wichita State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech—all have a non-top 25 loss and a loss to a top 25 team, with no big wins. #21 Northern Iowa is the lowest-rated 1-loss team, having no big wins and a loss to DePaul (7-8). 

As good as Duke is, they have no top 25 wins and two losses to non-top 25 teams, just like #24 St. Mary's and #25 UAB. UNLV is in at #23 due to their win over New Mexico (14-3), who beat Louisiana Tech (15-2) by 29 points; both the Lobos and the Bulldogs were nudged out by more deserving 3-loss teams above. Other 2-loss teams pushed out were Marshall (13-2) and Coastal Carolina (16-2). The latter has a loss to CS Northridge, while Marshall lost to North Carolina by 37.

Among the other teams staking a claim, Wisconsin is one of the most deserving at 13-3, having wins over both Duke and Purdue. But they are in line behind 12-3 Gonzaga due to a head-to-head loss; the Zags are behind Wake Forest (11-3), who lost to William & Mary (12-3), who lost to 12-3 Harvard. That's a lot of teams to try to crowd in to accommodate the Badgers. And ahead of them all is Michigan State, who beat both Wisconsin and Gonzaga; the Spartans will be in the top 25 shortly if they keep winning.

Other possible entrants in the near future include Vanderbilt (12-3, beat St. Mary's) and Missouri (13-3, beat Kansas State). Vanderbilt has priority over Missouri due to a win against the Tigers. Notre Dame (14-3, beat West Virginia) is in line just behind 12-3 Northwestern, who beat them.

Dayton (12-3) has lost to two top 25 teams and New Mexico; they and Florida State (13-3) are in line ahead of Georgia Tech (12-3, beat Duke). Finally Missouri State (13-3) has a win over Tulsa (12-3, beat Oklahoma State).

It should be an interesting couple of weeks ahead as all these teams work it out.

Battle of undefeated teams: West Virginia (11-0) vs. Purdue (12-0)

Once the basketball season reaches the New Year, any battle between undefeated teams is big occasion.

There are just six undefeated teams left in the nation: Syracuse (13-0), Texas (12-0), Kansas (12-0), Kentucky (14-0), and two teams that battle today, West Virginia (11-0) and Purdue (12-0).

The Big East and the Big Twelve each have two undefeated teams, one each for the Big Ten and SEC.

In today's matchup, West Virginia has been living on the edge in some of their games but have the advantage in both the Strenth and Success power ratings.

The Mountaineers are #8 in Strength to Purdue's #14. In Success, West Virginia has clearly played a harder schedule. They rank #2 to Purdue's #4, and that's with one less game. The Mountaineers have beaten Texas A&M, Mississippi, Seton Hall, and Marquette. Purdue has played a lot of poor teams, but they have defeated Alabama, Tennessee, and Wake Forest.

Most recently, West Virginia needed overtime to beat Seton Hall, and a last-second shot to beat Marquette.

Though West Virginia has a slim edge in the Strength rating, Purdue is playing at home and therefore might have to be the favorite (by about two points). According to the game-comparison system Purdue has a 58% chance to win, matching exactly Kenpom.com's percentage.

But according to the oddsmakers, West Virginia is a five point favorite. The game starts at 2:30 eastern time.