SportsRatings' pre-season 2009-2010 college basketball preview ranks 343 Division I teams. This installment covers teams 26 to 50. For the full list, click here.
- Michigan St. (Big Ten #6) Last year: 31-7 (#5) TPP Back: 69.1% Recruiting: #36
Key returnees: Kalin Lucas (#2 11.1 TPP/G), Raymar Morgan (#3 8.5), Delvon Roe (#4 6.4), Durrell Summers (#5 6.3)
Key losses: Goran Suton (#1 13.4 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Derrick Nix (C 6-9 275)
Analysis: With the Spartans in everyone else's top 5, I have them just outside the top 25 and just one of many teams with a shot at the Big Ten title. Howso? Well, Goran Suton was an important cog in the MSU wheel. With him gone he takes more than just the 20% production he supplied via 10 points and 8 rebounds per game. Still loaded with talent—and adding two big freshman centers—the Spartans will adjust and continue to thrive. But which Raymar Morgan will we see this year? If he's really back, the top 5 predictions will be right. - Ohio St. (Big Ten #7) Last year: 22-11 (#19) TPP Back: 85.5% Recruiting: #341
Key returnees: Evan Turner (#1 17.3 TPP/G), Jon Diebler (#2 10.5), William Buford (#3 9.0), Dallas Lauderdale (#5 5.3)
Key losses: B.J. Mullens (#4 8.5 TPP/G)
Top recruit: N/A
Analysis: The Big Ten is the conference to beat this year, nearly crowding seven teams into the top 25. The Buckeyes are in the mix as the return 85% of last year's production and gain a 7-0 transfer from UAB, whose eligibility this year should ease a bit of the loss of 7-footer Mullens. David Lighty (9.7 pts, 5.7 reb) returns after missing all but seven games, compensating for the fact that the Buckeyes—famous for reloading via recruiting under Thad Matta—have no freshmen on the team this year. Turner is a favorite for Big Ten MVP this season. - Arizona (Pac-10 #4) Last year: 21-14 (#50) TPP Back: 38.9% Recruiting: #10
Key returnees: Nic Wise (#3 12.2 TPP/G), Jamelle Horne (#4 6.1), Kyle Fogg (#5 5.6)
Key losses: Jordan Hill (#1 19.3 TPP/G), Chase Budinger (#2 17.5)
Top recruit: Kyryl Natyazhko (C 6-10 250)
Analysis: Losing Hill and Budinger saps Arizona's strength to the tune of 56%, such that even returning 6 of their next 7 best players seems inconsequential. But luckily Wise returned for his senior year, giving the team a solid foundation of leadership. Adding five very good freshman helps, too; joining Ukraining Natyazhko are four others who are near consensus blue chips. The Wildcats should compete in the Pac-10. - Florida (SEC #4) Last year: 25-11 (#54) TPP Back: 63.5% Recruiting: #28
Key returnees: Alex Tyes (#2 13.1 TPP/G), Chandler Parsons (#3 9.3), Dan Werner (#4 8.9), Erving Walker (#5 7.1)
Key losses: Nick Calathes (#1 18.1 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Kenny Boynton (SG 6-2 185)
Analysis: The Gators underachieved last year based on their #38 strength rating, and despite the big loss of Calathes they return enough key talent to have another good year. They add frosh guard Boynton, one of the nation's best, and transfer Vernon Macklin from Georgetown becomes eligible. Erik Murphy will also help out inside and outside. It will be a group effort to replace Calathes but Billy Donovan has gathered a lot of talent. - Pittsburgh (Big East #5) Last year: 31-5 (#2) TPP Back: 28.7% Recruiting: #20
Key returnees: Jermaine Dixon (#4 7.5 TPP/G)
Key losses: DeJuan Blair (#1 21.5 TPP/G), Sam Young (#2 15.9), LeVance Fields (#3 11.9), Tyrell Biggs (#5 6.0)
Top recruit: Dante Taylor (PF 6-9 235)
Analysis: At first blush things look pretty bleak for the Panthers. Losing Blair (15.7 ppg, 12.3 rebounds), Young (19.2 ppg), and Fields (7.5 assists) is crippling. But coach Jamie Dixon is hopeful: for one, he still has Jermaine Dixon (8.4 ppg) to provide leadership along with reserves Brad Wanamaker and Gilbert Brown; transfer Chase Adams from Centenary could be the team's best player; and recruit Taylor may become a Blair-type presence underneath. - Connecticut (Big East #6) Last year: 31-5 (#3) TPP Back: 35.6% Recruiting: #14
Key returnees: Kemba Walker (#4 8.7 TPP/G), Stanley Robinson (#5 10.1)
Key losses: Hasheem Thabeet (#1 20.3 TPP/G), Jeff Adrien (#2 15.9), A.J. Price (#3 11.5)
Top recruit: Alex Oriakhi (C 6-9 245)
Analysis: The Huskies are in the same boat as the Pitt Panthers, with last year's dominance giving way to the new reality. No more Thabeet (4.2 blocks/game) in the middle. But with Walker and Robinson back, and Jerome Dyson (13.2 ppg) returning from knee injury, there is no shortage of talent. Big man Oriakhi leads a great frosh class that also includes point Darius Smith and forward Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, both consensus blue chips. - Notre Dame (Big East #7) Last year: 21-15 (#60) TPP Back: 57.8% Recruiting: #41
Key returnees: Luke Harangody (#1 23.0 TPP/G), Tory Jackson (#4 9.5)
Key losses: Kyle McAlarney (#2 10.9 TPP/G), Ryan Ayers (#3 9.7), Zach Hillesland (#5 5.8)
Top recruit: Jack Cooley (C/F 6-9 235)
Analysis: Last year when Notre Dame was consensus top ten I placed them a bit lower at #19. As it turned out, that was too gracious as the Irish season fell apart with disappointment. This year they lose several key players including their biggest 3-point threats in McAlarney (42%) and Ayers (43%). But Harangody (23.3 ppg, 11.8 rebounds) is back for another MVP season, and he's joined by transfers Ben Hansbrough (10.5 ppg at Mississippi State) and Scott Martin (8.5 ppg at Purdue). The chemistry between these players will determine how far the Irish go this year. - St. John's (Big East #8) Last year: 16-18 (#101) TPP Back: 99.7% Recruiting: #46
Key returnees: D.J. Kennedy (#1 12.8 TPP/G), Paris Horne (#2 10.0), Sean Evans (#3 8.9), Justin Burrell (#4 4.9), Rob Thomas (#5 5.1)
Key losses: Phil Wait (#10 0.8 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Justin Brownlee (SF 6-7 225)
Analysis: The 4th Big East team in a row—shows how tough the league is in the middle. St. John's basketball hasn't been good for some time, but this year they take a step toward reclaiming the glory days. The Red Storm return their top nine contributors, constituting 99.7% of last year's production. Add four strong recruits and the return of Anthony Mason, Jr., and last year's mediocre team looks like a solid winner. - South Carolina (SEC #5) Last year: 21-10 (#62) TPP Back: 86.0% Recruiting: #49
Key returnees: Devan Downey (#1 13.9 TPP/G), Dominique Archie (#2 11.1), Mike Holmes (#3 10.4), Evaldas Baniulis (#5 5.2)
Key losses: Zam Fredrick (#4 6.5 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Lakeem Jackson (SF 6-5 215)
Analysis: South Carolina won the East division of a very weak SEC last year; this year the league is tougher but so are the Gamecocks who return seven of their top eight players and 86% of production from last year. Guard Downey averaged almost 20 ppg; Archie and Holmes 10 apiece; and Baniulis hit 48% of his threes. Add a recruiting class with three solid-or-better players and coach Darrin Horn has to be optimistic. - Louisville (Big East #9) Last year: 31-6 (#6) TPP Back: 47.6% Recruiting: #25
Key returnees: Samardo Samuels (#3 9.7 TPP/G), Jerry Smith (#4 6.2), Terrence Jennings (#5 6.2)
Key losses: Terrence Williams (#1 17.8 TPP/G), Earl Clark (#2 15.6)
Top recruit: Peyton Siva (PG 5-11 180)
Analysis: Between Williams and Clark alone the Cardinals lose almost half their production from last year; each had over 300 rebounds, constituting 49% of the team's total. The returnees are no slouches but the dynamic duo are hard to replace. Rick Pitino brings in four good recruits, with Siva and 6-8 power forward Rakeem Buckles the most highly touted. But like Pitt and UConn, last year's Big East beasts have been tamed. - Vanderbilt (SEC #6) Last year: 19-12 (#76) TPP Back: 92.9% Recruiting: #84
Key returnees: A.J. Ogilvy (#1 14.5 TPP/G), Jermaine Beal (#2 11.4), Jeffery Taylor (#3 11.0), Brad Tinsley (#4 8.7)
Key losses: George Drake (#5 4.4 TPP/G)
Top recruit: John Jenkins (SG 6-4 215)
Analysis: The Commodores return almost everyone; guard Drake is the only loss out of their 13 most productive players. Also back is forward Andre Walker excelled in the three games he played before injury knocked him out for the year. They even add a stellar recruit, Jenkins, who averaged over 40 points per game in high school. Clearly, depth is not a problem for this team. - Northern Iowa (MVC #1) Last year: 23-11 (#79) TPP Back: 94.9% Recruiting: #131
Key returnees: Jordan Eglseder (#1 11.8 TPP/G), Adam Koch (#2 10.3), Johnny Moran (#3 7.3), Lucas O'Rear (#4 8.0), Kwadzo Alhelegbe (#5 6.9)
Key losses: Travis Brown (#8 2.7 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Matt Morrison (PG 6-1 170)
Analysis: UNI has had a good basketball program for decades, but this might be their best team yet as they return 95% of their talent. 7-footer Eglseder could be one of the nation's best centers as he averaged .613 total-performance points per minute, racking up 10.2 points and 6.4 rebounds a game in under 20 minutes. With solid players all around and well-coached by Ben Jacobsen, the Panthers should rule the Missouri Valley. - Cincinnati (Big East #10) Last year: 18-14 (#68) TPP Back: 76.2% Recruiting: #43
Key returnees: Deonte Vaughn (#1 11.0 TPP/G), Yancy Gates (#2 9.0), Rashad Bishop (#4 6.3), Dion Dixon (#5 4.9)
Key losses: Mike Williams (#3 9.5 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Lance Stephenson (G/F 6-6 220)
Analysis: There are a number of reason for Cincinnati fans to be optimistic this year. The Bearcats return a solid 3/4 of their talent from last year, including top scorer Vaughn (15.3 ppg) and rebounder Gates (6.1). The team acquired Ibrahima Thomas, a solid transfer from Oklahoma State. 2008 recruit Cashmere Wright will play after missing last season, and 2009 recruit Stephenson is one of the nation's very best. - Arizona St. (Pac-10 #5) Last year: 25-10 (#30) TPP Back: 46.2% Recruiting: #22
Key returnees: Derek Glasser (#3 8.6 TPP/G), Rihards Kuksiks (#4 7.9), Ty Abbott (#5 5.6)
Key losses: James Harden (#1 17.2 TPP/G), Jeff Pendergraph (#2 17.2)
Top recruit: Trent Lockett (SG 6-5 185)
Analysis: Probably one of the nation's top 15 teams last year, the Sun Devils underachieved and now suffer the loss of Harden (20.1 ppg) and Pendergraph (66% FG shooting), whom together made up 54% of ASU's production. No one else significant is gone, however, and when you factor in depth and newcomers (Lockett and four others, all solid prospects), this team won't fall as far as some people would have you believe. - Maryland (ACC #5) Last year: 21-14 (#26) TPP Back: 85.8% Recruiting: #73
Key returnees: Greivis Vasquez (#1 15.1 TPP/G), Landon Milbourne (#2 10.3), Eric Hayes (#3 9.6), Adrian Bowie (#4 7.3)
Key losses: Dave Neal (#5 7.2 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Jordan Williams (C/F 6-9 245)
Analysis: In contast to Arizona State, Maryland overachieved last year, ranking 26th in Success while only 55th in Strength. Which is why the return of 86% of the team's production doesn't guarantee a better year. They will be a better team, though, with Vasquez in his senior year. The Terrapins will find the ACC more hospitable this year and should manage a winning record in conference play. - Washington (Pac-10 #6) Last year: 26-9 (#25) TPP Back: 55.6% Recruiting: #29
Key returnees: Quincy Poindexter (#3 10.5 TPP/G), Isaiah Thomas (#4 8.7), Matthew Bryan-Amaning (#5 4.9)
Key losses: Jon Brockman (#1 16.5 TPP/G), Justin Dentmon (#2 11.3)
Top recruit: Abdul Gaddy (PG 6-3 190)
Analysis: The loss of Brockman and Dentmon is hard to dismiss for those publications putting Washington in the top 15. Though Thomas (15.5 ppg) led the team in scoring, Brockman was right behind at 14.9ppg and added 11.5 rebounds. Together the duo accounted for over 40% of Washington's strength. Freshman Gaddy is considered the best new point guard this side of John Wall, but he won't snag 11.5 rebounds per game. - VCU (Colonial #1) Last year: 24-10 (#97) TPP Back: 68.0% Recruiting: #101
Key returnees: Larry Sanders (#2 11.8 TPP/G), Joey Rodriguez (#3 7.2), Bradford Burgess (#4 6.8), Kirill Pishchlnikov (#5 5.5)
Key losses: Eric Maynor (#1 18.8 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Troy Daniels (SG 6-4 190)
Analysis: The bad news is that Eric Maynor is gone. Maynor's 22.4 points and 6 assists per game provided over 30% of VCU's production. The good news is that almost everyone else returns, giving VCU a respectable 68% in returning production. Even better, two solid transfers become eligible: Jamie Skeen from Wake Forest and Jay Gavin from Marist. VCU didn't play to their potential last season; if they do this year, they will improve post-Maynor. - Brigham Young (Mtn West #1) Last year: 25-8 (#48) TPP Back: 72.9% Recruiting: #70
Key returnees: Jonathan Tavernari (#2 14.7 TPP/G), Jimmer Fredette (#3 14.4), Jackson Emery (#4 9.3), Chris Miles (#5 6.3)
Key losses: Lee Cummard (#1 17.9 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Tyler Haws (SG 6-5 200)
Analysis: Losing top all-around performer Cummard (16.8ppg) is a setback to the Cougars, but the return of Tavernari (15.7), Fredette (16.2) and Emery (all of whom shot 38% from three point range) and their next six best players is reason to look for even better results this year. Utah native Haws and fellow freshman Brandon Davis, a 6-9 forward, will make good additions to the team. Look for another MWC title, maybe outright this time. - Idaho (WAC #1) Last year: 17-16 (#162) TPP Back: 85.1% Recruiting: #130
Key returnees: Mac Hopson (#1 15.3 TPP/G), Brandon Wiley (#2 9.2), Kashif Watson (#3 7.1), Marvin Jefferson (#4 6.5), Luciano de Souza (#5 5.4)
Key losses: Terrence Simmons (#6 4.3 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Corey Stern (SF 6-7 200)
Analysis: Even returning four starters—and all five top producers—from last season wouldn't be reason to put this team #1 in the WAC given last year's middling success (9-7 in-conference). But the Vandals also bring in a couple of transfers including guard Steffan Johnson (14.5 ppg) from Pacific, freshman Stern, and senior leadership from Hopson, and the Vandals could show improvement topped only by the '09 football team. - Portland (WCC #1) Last year: 19-13 (#111) TPP Back: 99.9% Recruiting: #338
Key returnees: Nik Raivio (#1 13.8 TPP/G), T.J. Campbell (#2 10.3), Robin Smeulders (#3 9.3), Jared Stohl (#4 9.1), Luke Sikma (#5 6.6)
Key losses: John Hegarty (#10 0.1 TPP/G)
Top recruit: N/A
Analysis: The Pilots return all five starters and all but one player overall (who played in just 7 games). Things are so crowded that they have no room for new players; this year's recruiting class consists of two walk-ons. With four players scoring in double figures and two exceptional 3-point threats (Campbell 53%, Stohl 46%), Portland could win for the West Coast title with essentially the same squad that finished 3rd last year. - Siena (Metro Atl #1) Last year: 27-8 (#57) TPP Back: 84.2% Recruiting: #149
Key returnees: Ryan Rossiter (#1 15.4 TPP/G), Edwin Ubiles (#2 13.1), Alex Franklin (#3 12.6), Ronald Moore (#4 10.3)
Key losses: Kenny Hasbrouck (#5 9.8 TPP/G)
Top recruit: O.D. Anosike (PF 6-7 210)
Analysis: Siena's only major loss is Hasbrouck, the team's 2nd leading scorer last year at 14.6 per game. Their returning talent and the Saints' propensity to spread scoring around should help compensate for all that he did for the team, leading to another Metro Atlantic title and NCAA appearance. In fact it should be easier this year—they could go undefeated in conference play, and the team could be top 25 quality. - Miami (FL) (ACC #6) Last year: 19-13 (#39) TPP Back: 45.2% Recruiting: #23
Key returnees: Dwayne Collins (#2 11.6 TPP/G), James Drews (#5 5.3)
Key losses: Jack McClinton (#1 13.6 TPP/G), Brian Asbury (#3 6.4), Jimmy Graham (#4 6.4)
Top recruit: Durand Scott (SG 6-3 190)
Analysis: With McClinton's departure, many are picking Miami for last in the ACC, and it could happen. But there are reasons for hope for the Canes. Collins, the team's #2 scorer (10.6ppg) and leading rebounder (7.3/g), is back. Another big man, Julian Gamble, has done very well in limited action. But the big hope is that recruit Scott is a superstar as a freshman; he joins the team along with four other solid recruits and Villanova transfer Malcolm Grant. - Baylor (Big 12 #6) Last year: 24-15 (#43) TPP Back: 42.9% Recruiting: #27
Key returnees: LaceDarius Dunn (#3 11.0 TPP/G), Tweety Carter (#4 8.2)
Key losses: Curtis Jerrells (#1 14.6 TPP/G), Kevin Rogers (#2 12.7), Henry Dugat (#5 7.5)
Top recruit: Nolan Dennis (SG 6-5 185)
Analysis: Losing Jerrells and over 50% of overall production suggests the Bears will not improve over last year's results. But the return of guards Dunn and Carter keeps the backcourt sound while 6-10 Michigan transfer Ekpe Udoh (6 pts, 5 reb, 3 blk) helps out inside. Several reserves are back and this year's recruiting class has four good players, among them Dennis and C/F Cory Jefferson. Baylor may have better luck in conference play this year. - Dayton (Atl 10 #1) Last year: 27-8 (#36) TPP Back: 86.9% Recruiting: #178
Key returnees: Chris Wright (#1 10.8 TPP/G), Marcus Johnson (#2 7.9), Chris Johnson (#3 7.8), London Warren (#5 5.2)
Key losses: Charles Little (#4 6.1 TPP/G)
Top recruit: Matt Kavanaugh (PF 6-9 250)
Analysis: Wright is only a junior and it seems like he's been around forever for the Flyers. With four starters back (Kurt Huelsman started, not Chris Johnson) the Flyers will be better than last year, but that's going by their #70 tempo-free Strength rating, not their #36 Success score. Still, the potential is there for a breakthrough season, and this time they shouldn't need an at-large bid to get to the NCAAs. - Georgetown (Big East #11) Last year: 16-15 (#34) TPP Back: 72.2% Recruiting: #67
Key returnees: Greg Monroe (#1 15.2 TPP/G), Chris Wright (#2 10.2), Austin Freeman (#3 10.1)
Key losses: DaJuan Summers (#4 9.5), Jessie Sapp (#5 6.0)
Top recruit: Hollis Thompson (SF 6-6 180)
Analysis: The "other" Chris Wright, depending on who you ask, resides at either Georgetown or Dayton. The Hoyas' version is also a junior and returns with stars Monroe and Freeman to a team that collapsed last year after reaching a lofty early-season peak. Which team will show up this year? For now it's safe to say that the squad has to prove it can win games, not just compete. The potential exists, but we're waiting to see results.
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