Now that the draft is over an Blake Griffin was the expected #1 overall pick by the Clippers, the question is: how good will he be? Is he a sure thing, or a possible bust?
The short answer is, yes.
Griffin is a sure thing in some areas, and yet still a possible bust as a #1 pick. That is, he'll be a good player with a solid future as an NBA player but when judged under the criteria as a #1 overall pick, he might not live up to the expectations that the top pick brings.
As a rebounder Griffin was one of the better ones in college basketball history. Players like that—elite rebounders under 7 feet tall—tend to continue to excel in that area in the pros. Charles Barkley was under 6' 5" yet he was one of the greats. Dennis Rodman is another example.
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Griffin's scoring output, though great in college, might be closer to Rodman's ultimately than Barkley's. In college he was often the "man among boys" but that won't be the case in the NBA. His size and strength will work in the pros, but he's still under 6'10" which makes him undersize for playing center, which is partly what he played for Oklahoma.
The power forward position will work nicely for him though. He'll get underneath to reel in the rebounds. But he'll find that NBA power forwards and centers are harder to get past inside. In college he could get position at will, but it will be harder in the big leagues.
Playing for the Clippers will give him an early opportunity to shine—they need new blood and will offer him a lot of playing time right away. I think his early years will be very good, and he has a good chance of averaging a double-double and garnering Rookie of the Year honors. But long term he might not be one of the greats. I think his scoring will decline over the years, particularly if he gets traded. His offensive production will depend on what teams he's on, unlike the all-time greats who will score wherever they go. His rebounding his remain constant; scoring will vary.
I see his career possibly following the trajectory of a player like Larry Johnson. Bursting onto the scene will a great year, then due to trade or injury lowering his production. His size, competitiveness, and strength will keep him in the league for a good decade. But a guy that big might not hold up very well in same areas. He has great jumping ability, but he can't play that style at 250 lbs. after several years in the league. He'll get banged up some—refs seem to not call as many fouls when big players are bumped and hacked.
That doesn't mean he shouldn't have been the #1 pick. There isn't really a better choice, and he'll be at his best in his younger years, so the Clippers will get a good deal out of it.
The Rest of the Draft
One player I think will exceed expectations is the #2 pick, Hasheem Thabeet. He's still learning, which gives him great upside potential for the Grizzlies. You can't argue with 7' 3" either. Picking him #1 was too risky, since he's still too raw right now on offense. You can't know whether he'll ever develop in this area. But he might surpass Griffin over his career if everything falls into place, and just as Griffin is a sure-thing as a rebounder, Thabeet is a proven shot-blocker.
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I'm not sold on the state of Arizona players, #3 James Harden (Oklahoma City) and #8 Jordan Hill (New York). Either one could be great or be lost in the shuffle. #4 Tyreke Evans will only get better. Minnesota's #5 and #6 point guards, Ricky Rubio and Johnny Flynn are a strange pick taken together, and one might be traded. Rubio has good height for the NBA but the shorter Flynn outweighs him by 15 pounds.
I like the #7 pick by Golden State, Stephen Curry, of course. I trust the instinct of other NBA players, who are fans of Curry's play. He'll need to be in a system that lets him do his thing. He has a chance to be a great one and I would have taken him over Rubio or Flynn but I'd play him at off guard, only playing him at point as needed.
The ninth and tenth picks by Toronto and Milwaukee leave me a bit puzzled. DeMar DeRozan didn't really dominate at USC—until the latter part of the season, when he came on strong. I would have liked to see another year from him to make a better judgement, but as it turned out he made the right decision, both for his draft spot and the Trojans' post-season shakeup. Brandon Jennings' leap to the Euro leagues to me shows lack of commitment. He knew it was a one-year thing, and he didn't dominate there by any means. If he doesn't shoot well in the NBA his value will be diminished, and how unselfish will he be as a point guard in the league? Both these players have great potential of course but I'd call too risky for top ten picks.
I think Gerald Henderson (#12 Charlotte) will be good in the league. Duke players haven't done much recently but he's solid overall. Tyler Hansbrough went at #13 to Indiana, and I think he'll find a place as a backup in the league. He's dependable and durable, and if his outside shot keeps getting better I wouldn't count him out as a starter. Teammate Ty Lawson (#18) went to Minnesota on a pick from Miami, and was traded to Denver. He's as good as any PG in the draft, but the "fireplug" built point guards haven't done well in the NBA. The shorter (6'0" or so) guards that succeed tend to be much lighter than Lawson's 200 lbs, since that gives them the extra bit of speed. See Allen Iverson, Chris Paul. Wayne Ellington also got picked in the first round (#28 Minnesota) and seems like one of those players that will be traded around a lot, and be a reliable bench player who occasionally makes the game-winning three over the years.
Round Two Notes
The big story of the draft is DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh falling into the 2nd round (#37 San Antonio). As a projected high pick (Blair went pro partly because all the projected drafts had him easily in the first round) I had doubts about Blair's height but at this pick, he's a steal. Perhaps a better rebounder than Griffin even, he's strong enough to push people around even in the NBA. But questions about his knees dropped him many notches. A great pick at this level and any team that passed him up in the 2nd round was crazy. Teammate Sam Young went one pick earlier (#36, Memphis), and is also a potential steal.
Jody Meeks of Kentucky went at #41 to Milwaukee. Meeks hoped to be a first rounder, and now we're left wondering how good the Wildcats could be in the coming season if they had Meeks back.
A little surprised that Taylor Griffin went this early (#48 Phoenix) though he does a little bit of everything and whatever is asked of him, so he'll find a role somewhere. Goran Sutton (#50 Utah) is so fundamentally solid that he'll adjust well to the league. Jack McClinton of Miami (#51 San Antonio) is another hit or miss. Will he get lost in the sea of great players, or will we find that the NBA is where he truly shines? Another good pick by San Antonio in the 2nd round.
Finally, Lester Hudson (#58 Boston) of Tennessee Martin is a potential breakout player. He could be the Scotty Pippen of the draft, coming from a smaller school and mostly unknown. Hard to project his success, but for a late 2nd round pick it was a smart move for the Celtics to take a chance on him.