The Pitt Panthers took over the #1 spot on the SportsRatings Basketball Power Rating after beating previous #2 UConn 76-68 on the road. Pitt leads #2 North Carolina by less than a point.
Here are the top ten in the Combined power rating:
# Team rec Rating
1. Pittsburgh 24-2 72.16
2. North Carolina 23-2 71.30
3. Oklahoma 25-1 56.15
4. Connecticut 24-2 54.37
5. Wake Forest 19-4 47.96
6. Duke 20-5 45.05
7. Michigan St. 20-4 39.91
8. Clemson 20-4 39.62
9. Memphis 22-3 35.86
10. Louisville 19-5 35.68
The win boosts Pittsburgh's chances of getting a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They're a half-game out of the Big East lead but have the tiebreaker with the Huskies. The two teams face each other in the final game of the regular season; that and the outcome of the Big East tournament will likely give one or the other team a #1 seed.
North Carolina is nearly tied with the Panthers, then it's a long drop to #3 Oklahoma. The Sooners are just ahead of the Huskies, then three of the next four are from the ACC: #5 Wake Forest, #6 Duke, and #8 Clemson. Louisville puts a third Big East team in the top ten.
The top ten in the Strength component:
# Team rec Rating
1. North Carolina 23-2 26.92
2. Pittsburgh 24-2 23.08
3. Duke 20-5 22.40
4. Connecticut 24-2 22.14
5. Memphis 22-3 22.04
6. Missouri 22-4 20.98
7. West Virginia 17-8 20.25
8. UCLA 19-6 20.01
9. Gonzaga 19-5 19.73
10. Kansas 20-5 18.72
North Carolina continues to be the best team in the country, however, by some margin, though Pitt is moving up lately. UConn falls below Duke after the home loss to the Panthers, and Memphis is coming on strong at #5. The second five is made up largely of underachievers, teams that are playing great basketball but not dominating in the Win-Loss column (though Missouri and Kansas are fairly consistent lately).
The top ten in the Success component:
# Team rec Rating
1. Pittsburgh 24-2 49.08
2. North Carolina 23-2 44.37
3. Oklahoma 25-1 37.56
4. Connecticut 24-2 32.22
5. Wake Forest 19-4 29.72
6. Duke 20-5 22.65
7. Clemson 20-4 22.24
8. Michigan St. 20-4 21.88
9. Illinois 21-5 18.47
10. Xavier 21-4 18.17
It's here where Pittsburgh gains their advantage over the Tar Heels. UNC plays Duke again but it's hard to tell if they can regain the lead in the Success ratings if both teams manage to win out. North Carolina can probably get close enough that their edge in Strength gives them the Combined lead.
Oklahoma's schedule has been so light (relatively) that they're #3 despite having only one loss. It's not that the Big 12 is bad, it's just that Oklahoma hasn't played many of the better teams yet. They have Texas, Missouri, and Kansas coming up, which gives them an opportunity to prove they deserve a high ranking despite being only 11th—below both Kansas and Missouri—in the Strength ratings.
Is it just me or is Duke imploding yet again? Many times over the several years, Duke has looked unstoppable at mid-season, only to hit a rough patch late in the year and bow out of the NCAA tournament earlier than expected. Last year they were 22-1 before finishing 5-4 and losing in the 2nd round. This year? An 18-1 start, and now 2-4 and counting. They have a chance to recover this time around, but also a chance to repeat 2007's debacle.
After the rest of the ACC teams, Michigan State and Illinois represent the Big 10. The Spartans are playing much better basketball than the Illini, but their propensity to lose to middle-of-the-pack conference foes holds them back. Still, they're in the top 15 in both components. Xavier rounds out the top ten.
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