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NOTE!!: Click here for our most recent NCAA tournament projection
College football season is barely over and bam! we're at the mid-point of the college basketball season already, just as conference play gets underway. So it's time for another updated NCAA tournament field projection. The original projections and the quarter-season update from a month ago are available at the highlighted links.
This projection is different than most you'll see that look at where teams would be seeded if the season ended today. I use the season so far (though games played Sunday, 1/11), plus projections of how the teams are expected to perform over the next two months. North Carolina is a good example: for their accomplishments so far, after losing two games they rate only a 2 or even 3 seed, ranking 10th in the Success power ratings, but still rank as the best team in the Strength ratings. They're still the favorite in the ACC tournament even if they're starting with an 0-2 handicap in the conference race, and just barely slip into a #1 seed.
UNC is joined by overall #1 seed Pitt, the projected Big East winner, and two ACC compatriots, Duke and Wake Forest. The projection doesn't try to re-arrange teams based on conference, so the notion that there would never be three #1 seeds from the same conference is left alone.
In fact, of the top eight teams, seven are from the ACC or Big East, something that the selection committee would never do. As conference season progresses, some of these teams will naturally slide down the seedings as teams beat each other. Arizona State gets the last #2 seed as projected Pac-10 champ.
Oklahoma falls from a 1-seed last projection to the first 3-seed, and 5-seed Missouri is favored in the Big 12 tournament. Michigan State makes a big comeback from an 8-seed back to the 3-seed they were supposed to be pre-season. Cal is a three seed and BYU is the top Mountain West rep at a four seed after both teams failed to make the pre-season projection. Despite their recent losses, Gonzaga still ranks very high in the Strength rating, which forecasts a strong conference performance.
prev pre-
seed Team conf seed diff season
[1] Pittsburgh Big East 2 +1 7
[1] Duke ACC 1 = 3
[1] Wake Forest ACC 2 +1 1
[1] North Carolina ACC 1 = 1
[2] Connecticut Big East 1 -1 1
[2] Clemson ACC 4 +2 10
[2] Georgetown Big East 5 +3 8
[2] Arizona St. Pac-10 3 +1 5
[3] Oklahoma Big 12 1 -2 4
[3] Michigan St. Big Ten 8 +5 3
[3] West Virginia Big East 5 -2 6
[3] California Pac-10 12 +9 --
[4] Brigham Young Mountain West 9 +5 --
[4] Marquette Big East 9 +5 3
[4] Gonzaga West Coast 2 -2 8
[4] Syracuse Big East 6 +2 9
[5] Xavier Atlantic 10 3 -2 4
[5] Missouri Big 12 4 -1 7
[5] Butler Horizon -- new --
[5] Tennessee SEC 2 -3 2
[6] UCLA Pac-10 6 = 2
[6] Illinois Big Ten -- new --
[6] Texas Big 12 3 -3 6
[6] Baylor Big 12 4 -2 6
[7] Memphis C-USA 4 -3 2
[7] Utah St. WAC 13 +6 --
[7] Louisville Big East 6 -1 1
[7] Davidson Southern 8 +1 12
[8] St. Mary's West Coast 8 = 8
[8] Ohio St. Big Ten 3 -5 7
[8] Notre Dame Big East 5 -3 5
[8] Minnesota Big Ten 7 -1 7
[9] Michigan Big Ten -- new --
[9] Wisconsin Big Ten 10 +1 6
[9] Purdue Big Ten 6 -3 5
[9] Oklahoma State Big 12 -- new --
[10] Miami (FL) ACC 9 -1 9
[10] Kansas Big 12 7 -3 4
[10] Washington Pac-10 11 +1 5
[10] Florida SEC 8 -2 2
[11] Villanova Big East 5 +6 4
[11] Kentucky SEC 10 -1 11
[11] Dayton Atlantic 10 -- new --
[11] Kansas St Big 12 -- new --
[12] South Carolina SEC 7 -5 10
[12] Maryland ACC 12 = --
[12] Illinois St Missouri Valley -- new --
[12] Boston Coll. ACC 12 = --
[13] Miami (OH) Mid-American 11 -2 --
[13] VCU Colonial Ath 13 = --
[13] Siena Metro Atlantic 13 = 12
[13] Portland St. Big Sky 14 +1 16
[14] S. F. Austin Southland 15 +1 13
[14] VMI Big South -- new --
[14] Belmont Atlantic Sun 14 = 15
[14] North Dakota St. Summit 13 -1 10
[15] M. Tenn. St. Sun Belt 15 = 14
[15] Cornell Ivy League 15 = 14
[15] Vermont America East 15 = --
[15] Morgan St. Mid-Eastern 16 +1 --
[16] E. Kentucky Ohio Valley -- new --
[16] American Patriot League 15 -1 15
[16] Mount St. Mary's Northeast 15 -1 15
[16p]Cal Northridge Big West -- new 13
[16p]Alabama St SW Athletic -- new 16
Marquette and Syracuse are the fifth and sixth Big East teams in the top 16. Overall there are 9 Big East teams, which is a lot but is more reasonable than the 11 originally projected. The Big Ten, Big Twelve, and ACC all place 7 teams; the Pac 10 and SEC have only 4 each.
Butler is the top-ranked newcomer; the projected Horizon League winner is a 5-seed along with the projected winners from the Atlantic 10 and SEC, Xavier and Tennessee.
Some high-ranked teams place at 6- and 7-seeds; Texas rates no better than Baylor in my power ratings and they are expected to do about the same in the Big 12. Meanwhile UCLA, Memphis, and Louisville were pre-season #2, #2, and #1 seeds; UCLA is playing well and could recover some spots, but Louisville suffered some bad losses and has more ground to make up. Memphis, playing in the Conference-USA, has fewer opportunities to score impressive wins.
The Big Ten may have seven teams in, but few are rated highly. Five of them are 8 or 9 seeds. Seeds 10, 11, and 12 of course mostly contain the bubble teams from the major conferences, while the 13-16 seeds are the lower-conference qualifiers. These teams are judged strictly by their Strength rating, as they must win their conference tournament to qualify so their Success up to this point is moot. But in almost every case the strongest teams have already performed the best.
The two highest-seeded teams from last month that don't make this month's projection are Florida State and Utah. FSU was a #7 seed last month, and based on their year so far that's about where they would place if the season ended today. But their Strength rating is low, so it doesn't look like a good ACC placing is likely, making them a bubble team that just misses. Utah is playing well enough to make the tournament, but they've had too many losses recently and their Mountain West schedule isn't quite going to get them there.
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