After the third week, both power ratings are 100% better than they were in the early weeks, and the combined ratings have North Carolina on top and New Jersey Institute of Technology fifth from the bottom, so things are really shaping up. Here are this week's Combined power ratings through games of last Sunday (30th):
# Team rec Rating (AP)
1. North Carolina 7-0 43.76 1
2. Gonzaga 5-0 42.98 5
3. Connecticut 6-0 32.86 2
4. Duke 7-0 32.30 4
5. Pittsburgh 7-0 31.18 3
6. Clemson 7-0 31.09 --
7. Utah 4-1 29.53 --
8. Oklahoma 6-0 29.18 6
9. Tennessee 5-1 27.88 10
10. Utah St. 4-0 27.87 --
11. Villanova 6-0 27.28 17
12. Wake Forest 6-0 25.97 15
13. Purdue 5-1 24.99 9
14. Syracuse 6-0 24.87 16
15. Xavier 6-0 24.52 14
16. West Virginia 4-1 24.42 --
17. George Mason 5-1 24.24 --
18. Georgia Tech 4-0 23.70 --
19. Illinois 6-0 23.67 --
20. Davidson 5-1 23.45 22
21. Georgetown 4-1 23.19 20
22. Dayton 6-0 22.98 --
23. Texas 5-1 22.60 8
24. Michigan St. 4-1 22.40 7
25. Notre Dame 5-1 22.26 13
Now that looks like a top 25. In fact, it's remarkably close already to the AP top 25, particularly the top five. Still a few surprises, perhaps, but those might be insights as well: Utah and Utah State in the top ten might be an indication that these teams are pretty good...or it might just point to Southwest Baptist—the team that beat Utah—being the best team in Division II...more about that later. But Clemson, Illinois, and Dayton may be underrated by the AP (they're all in "others receiving votes"), while West Virginia, George Mason, and Georgia Tech are being overlooked (no votes at all).
Speaking of Division II, the listings are down to 340 teams, actually fewer teams than there are in Division I. Some big names are missing (for example, Louisville) because they haven't played enough games to be rated this week. The number should settle in at around 344 or so eventually, up from last year's 341. A number of teams joined Division I provisionally this year but not all play a full Division I schedule.
The Strength ratings are what mainly drives the Combined rankings early on:
# Team rec Rating
1. Gonzaga 5-0 33.38
2. North Carolina 7-0 32.15
3. Utah 4-1 26.01
4. Connecticut 6-0 25.10
5. Utah St. 4-0 24.96
6. Tennessee 5-1 24.26
7. Duke 7-0 22.82
8. Pittsburgh 7-0 22.71
9. Purdue 5-1 22.15
10. Davidson 5-1 21.25
The Bulldogs are slightly ahead of the Tar Heels at this early juncture. Most of the other names are the usual suspects, with Davidson scoring ahead of Oklahoma due to home court advantage over the latter in the Sooners' win.
Again, the Utah teams come up; this is where they are getting their high combined rating, as neither rates in the top 40 in Success. This means they've beaten poor teams, but decisively. Utah's loss to a Division II team hurts them much more in the Success ratings; in Strength, since Southwest Baptist hasn't played any other Division I teams, there is no way for them to be rated other than relative to Utah...so essentially the game counts for very little. This way, blowing out a Division II team doesn't help, but the converse is true in that losing doesn't hurt. As long as Southwest Baptist doesn't play another Division I team—and I believe they do not all year—Utah pretty much gets a pass on it, at least in the Strength ratings. How they do in the rest of their games will determine their rating. As for Southwest Baptist, Utah's play so far suggests that they are the cream of the Division II crop.
This week's Success ratings:
# Team rec Rating
1. Florida St. 7-0 12.01
2. North Carolina 7-0 11.61
3. Clemson 7-0 11.22
4. Syracuse 6-0 10.53
5. Villanova 6-0 10.47
6. Oklahoma 6-0 10.29
7. Illinois 6-0 9.70
8. Gonzaga 5-0 9.60
9. Xavier 6-0 9.52
10. Duke 7-0 9.47
The Seminoles rank first when margin of victory is not an issue. And for them that's a good thing, since four of their wins came by four points or fewer. They're only 93rd in Strength, suggesting a hard fall may be coming. But for now, according to this rating, their seven games have been against tougher foes than anyone else's, including North Carolina and Duke. Note the high rate of tournament winners here; winning a tournament is the easiest way to get early quality wins, since in a big tournament the final win is guaranteed to be over a team with several wins of its own.
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