SportsRatings: College Basketball

SportsRatings College Basketball top 25 - week 7

Compared to last week there was almost no action in college basketball, with the holidays and all, but there was still some movement at the top.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 7 (thru 12/28/2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	North Carolina	12-0
2	2.	Connecticut	11-0	w@GonzagaOT
3	3.	Wake Forest	11-0	w=Baylor+9
4	4.	Oklahoma	12-0
5	5.	Pittsburgh	12-0	w@FSU+8
8	6.	Clemson	12-0	wIllinois+2
7	7.	Baylor	10-1	L=Wake-13;w=ArizSt+9
6	8.	Ohio State	9-1	L WVA-28;wButler+3
9	9.	Butler	10-1	L@OSU-3;wNwest+4,@Xavier+9
10	10.	Duke	10-1	L@Mich-8;w=Xavier+18
11	11.	Villanova	11-1	L=Texas-9
15	12.	Stanford	9-0	wNwestern+6
13	13.	Dayton	11-1	L Creighton-18;w=Marq+14
14	14.	Syracuse	12-1	L ClevelandSt-3
17	15.	Minnesota	12-0
16	16.	Georgetown	9-1	L=Tenn-12
18	17.	Arizona State	10-1	L=Baylor-9;wBYU+1
19	18.	BYU	10-1	L@ASU-1
20	19.	Illinois State	12-0
22	20.	Tennessee	8-2	L@Tem-16,=Gon-9;w=Gt+12,Mar+12
23	21.	Northwestern	8-2	L@Butler-4,@Stan-6;wFSU+14
12	22.	Xavier	9-2	L=Duke-18,Butler-9
24	23.	Marquette	11-2	L=Dayton-14,@Tenn-12
25	24.	Florida State	12-2	L@Nwestern-14,Pitt-8
--	25.	Illinois	12-1	L Clemson-2
		out:
21	--	Gonzaga	8-3	L@AZ-5,PortSt-7,UConnOT;w=TN+9

The top five remained the same, but Ohio State had their first loss. It was a big one, to West Virginia at home by almost 30 points, so they should fall a lot farther than to #8. But I'm keeping them ahead of #9 Butler for now. If they lose again they'll fall quite a bit.

Butler, of course, beat Xavier, giving them two top 25 victories to go with the loss to the Buckeyes. The Musketeers have lost to two top ten teams and stay in at 22, allowing several teams to move up to one degree or another. Undefeated Stanford and Minnesota hop a couple of 1-loss teams each

The other loser this week was Gonzaga, who lost to Portland State and falls out at 8-3. This takes #2 UConn's biggest win off the table (of course UConn lost to Georgetown Monday night, but these rankings go through Sunday). Replacing them is 12-1 Illinois, who beat Missouri earlier in the week. The Tigers would have earned the slot otherwise.

Why didn't West Virginia crack the top 25 after beating Ohio State? There simply wasn't room this week, as they're behind Davidson (who beat them) and Purdue (who beat Davidson). All three teams belong in the top 25, though, and will get there ASAP if they don't lose in the next few weeks. As of right now, there are more deserving unranked 2-loss teams than unranked 1-loss teams. Here is a listing of the best 2-loss unranked teams, in order; think of it as an "others receiving votes" section:

Purdue, Davidson, West Virginia, Missouri, Maryland, Michigan, California, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Texas, UCLA.

As mentioned, Purdue, Davidson, and West Virginia fall in that order. Davidson lost also to Oklahoma, while Purdue was defeated by Oklahoma and Duke.

Michigan actually beat Duke as well as losing to them, but they're behind Maryland, who fell only to Georgetown and Gonzaga, while beating Michigan State, who lost also to North Carolina while beating Texas. Yes, it gets complicated. Texas lost to Notre Dame (who lost only to UNC and Ohio State) and beat Villanova and UCLA; the Bruins lost also to Michigan.

See how interconnected all this is? That's what's great about the college basketball pre-conference season.

California lost only to FSU and Missouri; the Tigers lost to Illinois and Xavier. In the coming weeks some of these teams will lose again and break up the pack, the deserving ones getting into the rankings. Purdue has the quickest route: beat Illinois on Tuesday. Davidson plays Duke on the road on January 7th. West Virgina plays UConn the previous day.

SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 - week 6

A big weekend with lots of big games within the Top 25. Here's what happened and what it affected:

#2 UConn 88, #15 Gonzaga 83 (OT) - This overtime win at Gonzaga solidifies the Huskies at #2, while the Bulldogs fall to #21 after losing for the 2nd straight week.

#7 Pittsburgh 56, # 21 Florida State 48 - Pitt stayed undefeated on the road and moves into the top 5. FSU just barely holds on in the top 25, with losses only to Pitt and #23 Northwestern.

#17 Duke 82, #4 Xavier 64 - A neutral-court defeat—the Musketeers' first—drops them to #12 and puts the Blue Devils back in the top ten.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 6 (thru 12/21/2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	North Carolina	11-0
2	2.	Connecticut	10-0	w@GonzagaOT
3	3.	Wake Forest	10-0	w=Baylor+9
5	4.	Oklahoma	11-0
7	5.	Pittsburgh	12-0	w@FSU+8
8	6.	Ohio State	8-0	wButler+3
10	7.	Baylor	9-1	L=Wake-13;w=ArizSt+9
12	8.	Clemson	12-0
14	9.	Butler	9-1	L@OSU-3;wNorthwestern+4
17	10.	Duke	10-1	L@Mich-8;w=Xavier+18
11	11.	Villanova	10-1	L=Texas-9
4	12.	Xavier	9-1	L=Duke-18
16	13.	Dayton	10-1	L Creighton-18;w=Marq+14
6	14.	Syracuse	11-1	L ClevelandSt-3
--	15.	Stanford	7-0	wNwestern+6
20	16.	Georgetown	8-1	L=Tenn-12
24	17.	Minnesota	10-0	w=Louisville+6
22	18.	Arizona State	9-1	L=Baylor-9,wBYU+1
13	19.	BYU	10-1	L@ASU-1
25	20.	Illinois State	11-0
15	21.	Gonzaga	8-2	L@Ariz-5,UConnOT;w=Tenn+9
--	22.	Tennessee	8-2	L@Tem-16,=Gon-9;w=Gt+12,Marq+12
18	23.	Northwestern	7-2	L@Butler-4,@Stan-6;wFSU+14
19	24.	Marquette	9-2	L=Dayton-14,@Tenn-12
21	25.	Florida State	11-2	L@Nwestern-14,Pitt-8
		out:
9	--	Texas	9-2	L=ND-1,MichSt-4;w=Vill+9
23	--	Louisville	7-2	L WKy-14,=Minn-6

#6 Syracuse 72, Memphis 65 -
The Orange get a big road win, but still fall to #14 due to their stunning loss to Cleveland State earlier in the week.

Stanford 65, #23 Northwestern 59 - The Carninal earn a spot in the top 25 with this win. Still unbeaten but with just seven wins, they come in at #15 while the Wildcats fall to #23.

#24 Minnesota 70, Louisville 64 - The Gophers remain unbeaten and knock the Cardinals out of the top 25.

#22 ASU 76, #13 BYU 75 - As close as a game can get, the Cougars' winning put-back was ruled to be too late. So I now rank them #18 and #19 accordingly.

Tennessee 80, #19 Marquette 68 - The Vols re-enter at #22 after this weekday win; they're the only top 25 team with two big wins currently. Marquette falls to #24.

Michigan State 67, #9 Texas 63 - The Longhorns got bitten by the Spartans again, and it sends Texas out of the top 25. They're behind Notre Dame and Michigan State, who is behind Maryland, and there wasn't room for all those teams, though all are deserving and will be back soon if they keep winning.

At this point all undefeated teams are in the top 25, with Stanford moving in and Illinois State moving up to #20, while LSU had a loss. Now the attention turns to 1-loss teams, including Illinois—who just beat Missouri—but there are so many deserving 2-loss teams that they'll probably have to move in by beating a current top 25 team.

UConn vs. Gonzaga highlights great weekend

Saturday is a great day for college hoops, with multiple inter-conference matchups of top teams, many on neutral courts. Here are the best of the best (rankings are mine):

#23 Louisville (7-1) vs. #24 Minnesota (9-0) in Glendale, AZ
Point Spread: Louisville by 8
Strength Power Rating: Louisville by 10
Game-comparison %: Louisville 83%
A neutral-court contest between a pre-season final four candidate and a team people weren't sure what to expect from. The Cardinals have been less than impressive at times, but since their loss to Western Kentucky they've played well.  Minnesota hasn't lost but also hasn't had a very tough schedule. The Golden Gophers can prove they belong with a win, but they've got their work cut out for them.
Prediction: Louisville by 3

#17 Duke (9-1) vs. #4 Xavier (9-0) in East Rutherford, NJ
Point Spread: Duke by 5
Strength Power Rating: Duke by 6
Game-comparison %: Duke 74%
The Musketeers can get a big win here. But Duke already lost a game and they play well in big games. It's hard to pick against the Blue Devils.
Prediction: Duke by 14

Michigan State (7-2) at #9 Texas (9-1)
Point Spread: Texas by 6 1/2
Strength Power Rating: Texas by 5
Game-comparison %: Texas 63%
I just don't think the Longhorns are going to allow the Spartans to beat them at home two years in a row.
Prediction: Texas by 11

#2 Connecticut (9-0) at #15 Gonzaga (8-1)
Point Spread: Gonzaga by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating: Gonzaga by 8
Game-comparison %: Gonzaga 81%
UConn has had some pretty poor games despite not losing yet. Gonzaga just fell for the first time at Arizona, but overall they've been excellent, and now they're facing a big team at home for a change. UConn will probably take their first loss, but dealing with Thabeet will keep it close.
Prediction: Gonzaga by 2

Davidson (8-1) at Purdue (8-2)
Point Spread: Purdue by 5
Strength Power Rating: Purdue by 7
Game-comparison %: Purdue 70%
Purdue has only lost to Duke and Oklahoma, while Davidson lost to Oklahoma as well. Both are vying for a slot in my top 25, and are very close. I'm picking the upset here; the Wildcats and Curry keep winning.
Prediction: Davidson by 3

#13 BYU (10-0) at #22 Arizona State (8-1)
Point Spread: ASU by 3
Strength Power Rating: BYU by 3
Game-comparison %: BYU 53%
Undefeated BYU really should be in the AP top 25; whether by their record, strength of schedule, or quality of play they deserve it. Arizona State's only loss is to Baylor, who is also rated below them by the AP, and they've had some bad games recently. The Cougars have a good but tough opportunity to prove themselves on the road.
Prediction: BYU by 3 (OT)

#6 Syracuse (10-1) at Memphis (6-2)
Point Spread: Memphis by 8 1/2
Strength Power Rating: Memphis by 8 1/2
Game-comparison %: Memphis 78%
Syracuse recently had their first loss—to Cleveland State, at home—and now must go into the Tigers' den in Memphis. I don't think they'll come out victorious.
Prediction: Memphis by 19

Sunday has a couple of good games, too:

#7 Pittsburgh (11-0) at #21 Florida State (11-1)
Point Spread: no line yet
Strength Power Rating: Pitt by 12
Game-comparison %: Pitt 86%
Pitt is unbeaten but untested. Florida State has a habit of beating sub-par teams by just a few points. But they already beat Florida at home, and winning this game would give notice that they might be able to compete in the ACC. I'm going with a (pretty big) upset here, the Panthers being caught offguard and the ball bouncing FSU's way.
Prediction: FSU by 4

#12 Clemson (11-0) at Miami FL (7-2)
Point Spread: no line yet
Strength Power Rating: Miami by 1/2
Game-comparison %: Clemson 50.5 %
Can a game look closer than this one? Clemson is undefeated while Miami has lost only to two undefeated teams, Connecticut and Ohio State. Clemson has a few more impressive wins, but they're playing in Miami. All of this generates a rare case where the Strength Power Rating and the Game-comparison system yield different favorites. I'll give Clemson the hard-fought road win, the Hurricanes losing to their third undefeated foe.
Prediction: Clemson by 1 (2 OT)

SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 - week 5

Some of the mighty fell last week, but the mightiest remained on top. North Carolina and Connecticut have yet to relinquish the top two spots where they began the year, and Wake Forest and Xavier held on to the next two slots. After that, some upsets and intra-top-25 clashes moved things around a bit.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 5 (thru 12/14/2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	North Carolina	9-0
2	2.	Connecticut	8-0
3	3.	Wake Forest	9-0	w=Baylor+9
4	4.	Xavier	9-0	w=Memphis+5
6	5.	Oklahoma	10-0
8	6.	Syracuse	9-0	w@Kansas+8
9	7.	Pittsburgh	10-0
15	8.	Ohio State	6-0	wButler+3
16	9.	Texas	8-1	L=NotreDame-1;w=Vill+9
17	10.	Baylor	8-1	L=Wake-13;w=ArizSt+9
5	11.	Villanova	10-1	L=Texas-9
24	12.	Clemson	10-0
25	13.	BYU	10-0
14	14.	Butler	8-1	L@OSU-3;wNorthwestern+4
7	15.	Gonzaga	7-1	L@Arizona-5;w=Tennessee+9
10	16.	Dayton	9-1	L Creighton-18;w=Marq+14
18	17.	Duke	7-1	L@Mich-8
20	18.	Northwestern	6-1	L@Butler-4;wFSU+14
19	19.	Marquette	8-1	L=Dayton-14
--	20.	Georgetown	7-1	L=Tenn-12;w MemphisOT
21	21.	Florida State	9-1	L@Nwestern-14
22	22.	Arizona State	8-1	L=Baylor-9
23	23.	Louisville	6-1	L WKy-14
--	24.	Minnesota	9-0
--	25.	Illinois State	9-0
		out:
11	--	Memphis	5-2	L@GtownOT;=Xavier-5
13	--	Kansas	7-2	L UMass-1,Syracuse-8
12	--	Tennessee	6-2	L@Temple-16,=Gonzaga-9

Texas moved up to #9 after beating Villanova, who fell from #5 to #11. Ohio State jumped from #15 to #8, beating previously undefeated Butler 54-51; the Bulldogs remained at #14. Gonzaga slipped from #7 to #15 after an upset at Arizona, and Dayton suffered their first loss, getting pasted by Creighton and falling to #16. Taking advantage of these losses were Oklahoma, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh, who fill the 5, 6, and 7 slots.

The biggest upsets hit the previous #11, 12, and 13th ranked teams, all of whom suffered their 2nd loss of the year. Tennessee got hit the worst, losing big to Dionte Christmas and Temple. Kansas almost came back from a big first-half deficit, but fell by a point at home against middling UMass. And Memphis took Georgetown to overtime before falling at the Hoyas' house. All three fall from the rankings but could be back soon, especially Memphis, whose losses are both to current top 25 teams; they face #6 Syracuse on Saturday.

Some more big upward movers include Baylor (from 17 to 10) and undefeateds Clemson and BYU, who leap from 24th and 25th to 12th and 13th. The rest of the field didn't make much in the way of waves. Duke and Northwestern didn't play, Marquette won their sole game, while FSU (won by 5), ASU (needed overtime), and Louisville (was down well into the 3rd quarter) weren't very impressive. But some new blood comes in, starting with Georgetown at #20. Minnesota and Illinois State, both undefeated, come in at #24 and #25. This leaves only LSU and Stanford among unranked undefeated teams; LSU has played mostly bad teams, while the Cardinal have only played five games so far. They play Northwestern this weekend, so they'll get in if they win.

2009 NCAA tournament field of 65 projections: quarter-season update (Dec. 11)

NOTE!!: Click here for our most recent NCAA tournament projection

It's hard to believe the basketball season is already 1/4 over, but it's true. And with that, it's time for me to update my 2009 NCAA bracket projections. Or rather, seeding projections since I don't actually pair up the teams, though they could be S-curved starting at the top if you want to see the actual pairings. I don't bother since there's no way the actual pairings will be accurate, even for a bracket projected just a few days before selection Sunday, let alone 3 months prior.

My original projections went entirely by my pre-season rankings; the new projections are formulated like this: Conference tournament champs (in bold) are chosen using 50% current Strength power rating and 50% pre-season projections. This uses the results so far to tell us how strong a team is, and averages it with how strong they should have been, in case the results so far are a fluke. Then every team's future success is determined using this value, which is averaged with their Success ranking so far. In other words, 3/4 of the season has yet to be played, and that part is projected and combined with their wins and losses so far to see where they might rank in an RPI-style evaluation at the end of the year. The at-large teams are chosen this way.

                                      prev           
seed Team             conf            seed    diff  
[1]  North Carolina   ACC               1       =
[1]  Connecticut      Big East          1       = 
[1]  Duke             ACC               3       2 
[1]  Oklahoma         Big 12            4       3   
[2]  Pittsburgh       Big East          7       5
[2]  Gonzaga          West Coast        8       6
[2]  Tennessee        SEC               2       = 
[2]  Wake Forest      ACC               1       1
[3]  Xavier           Atlantic 10       4       1
[3]  Ohio St.         Big Ten           7       4
[3]  Texas            Big 12            6       3
[3]  Arizona St.      Pac-10            5       2
[4]  Missouri         Big 12            7       3
[4]  Baylor           Big 12            6       2
[4]  Memphis          C-USA             2       2
[4]  Clemson          ACC              10       6
[5]  Georgetown       Big East          8       3
[5]  Villanova        Big East          4       1
[5]  Notre Dame       Big East          5       =
[5]  West Virginia    Big East          6       1
[6]  Louisville       Big East          1       5
[6]  Purdue           Big Ten           5       1
[6]  UCLA             Pac-10            2       4
[6]  Syracuse         Big East          9       3
[7]  Kansas           Big 12            4       3
[7]  South Carolina   SEC              10       3
[7]  Florida St.      ACC               3       4
[7]  Minnesota        Big Ten           7       =
[8]  Davidson         Southern         12       4
[8]  St. Mary's       West Coast        8       =
[8]  Florida          SEC               2       6
[8]  Michigan St.     Big Ten           3       5
[9]  Miami (FL)       ACC               9       =
[9]  Utah             Mountain West    11       2
[9]  Marquette        Big East          3       6
[9]  Brigham Young    Mountain West    --      new
[10] Northwestern     Big Ten          --      new
[10] Wisconsin        Big Ten           6       4
[10] Kentucky         SEC              11       1
[10] San Diego St.    Mountain West     8       2
[11] Creighton        Missouri Valley  --      new
[11] Cincinnati       Big East         --      new
[11] Washington       Pac-10            5       6
[11] Miami (OH)       Mid-American     --      new
[12] Boston Coll.     ACC              --      new
[12] California       Pac-10           --      new
[12] Maryland         ACC              --      new 
[12] Wisc-Green Bay   Horizon          12       =
[13] Siena            Metro Atlantic   12       1
[13] VCU              Colonial Ath     --      new
[13] Utah St.         WAC              --      new
[13] North Dakota St. Summit           10       3
[14] Belmont          Atlantic Sun     15       1
[14] Murray St.       Ohio Valley      16       2
[14] Vermont          America East     --      new
[14] Portland St.     Big Sky          16       2
[15] S. F. Austin     Southland        13       2
[15] M. Tenn. St.     Sun Belt         14       1
[15] Mount St. Mary's Northeast        15       =
[15] Cornell          Ivy League       14       1
[16] American         Patriot League   15       1
[16] UC Santa Barbara Big West         --      new
[16] Gardner-Webb     Big South        16       =
[16p] Morgan St.      Mid-Eastern      --      new
[16p] Jackson St.     SW Athletic      --      new

North Carolina retains the top overall seed, and UConn repeats as a #1, but Wake Forest dips to a 3 seed and Louisville plummets all the way to a 6-seed. Replacing them as top seeds are Duke and Oklahoma. Pittsburgh is equal to Oklahoma in the projection, but consideration goes to the projected Big Twelve regular-season winner rather than have a second Big East team in at #1.

Big gainers include Gonzaga (from an 8 to a 2), Clemson (10 to a 4), and BYU and Northwestern, who were unseeded pre-season but look like a 9 and a 10 today. In all, fourteen teams move into the field.

Big losers include Florida (from a 2 to an 8), Marquette (3 to 9), and Providence and Alabama, who were 9 seeds originally but look like they won't make it at this point.

The Big East still leads with 10 teams in the field, down from 11 pre-season. All the #5 seeds are from the Big East! They lose Providence and Rutgers but gain Cincinnati in this competitive league. The ACC is close behind with 8 teams, up from 7 originally. They gain Maryland and Boston College while losing Virginia Tech. The Big Ten and Big 12 have five teams each, while the Pac-10 and SEC have four. 

Several conference auto-bid projections have changed; among them: Creighton is now expected to win the Missouri Valley instead of last year's champ Drake; Miami of Ohio edges out Buffalo currently; Virginia Commonwealth is the new projected winner in the Colonial Athletic, replacing Northeastern; and Utah State is projected to win the WAC rather than Nevada.

SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 - week 4

Two top ten teams fell last week, one of which was expected, the other, not. First the not: ex-#4 Duke, who beat Michigan just the day before (so it seemed), fell to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor 81-73 due to woeful 3pt shooting. This happened on the heels of Michigan losing to Maryland for their 2nd loss, and Duke handing Purdue its second loss, so now Duke has no top 25 wins...due to their own actions. They drop to 18th to clear the way for teams with better early résumés, but they'll probably be back up in no time.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 4 (thru 12/07/2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	North Carolina	8-0	w=NotreDame+15,@MichSt+35
2	2.	Connecticut	8-0
3	3.	Wake Forest	8-0	w=Baylor+9
5	4.	Xavier	7-0	w=Memphis+5
6	5.	Villanova	8-0
7	6.	Oklahoma	8-0	w=PurdueOT
9	7.	Gonzaga	6-0	w=Tennessee+9
10	8.	Syracuse	8-0	w@Kansas+8,=Florida+6
11	9.	Pittsburgh	9-0
12	10.	Dayton	8-0	w=Marquette+14
13	11.	Memphis	5-1	L=Xavier-5
14	12.	Tennessee	6-1	L=Gonzaga-9
16	13.	Kansas	7-1	L Syracuse-8
--	14.	Butler	7-0	wNorthwestern+4
--	15.	Ohio State	5-0	w=NotreDame+5
19	16.	Texas	6-1	L=NotreDame-1;wUCLA+4
21	17.	Baylor	7-1	L=Wake-13;w=ArizSt+9
4	18.	Duke	7-1	L@Mich-8;w=Mich+15,@Pur+16
20	19.	Marquette	7-1	L=Dayton-14
--	20.	Northwestern	6-1	L@Butler-4;wFSU+14
8	21.	Florida State	8-1	L@Nwestern-14;wFlorida+2
22	22.	Arizona State	7-1	L=Baylor-9
25t	23.	Louisville	4-1	L WKy-14
--	24.	Clemson	9-0
--	25.	BYU	8-0
		out:
18	--	Notre Dame	6-2	L=OhioSt-5,=UNC-15;w=Tex+1
15	--	Florida	6-2	L=Syracuse-6,@FSU-2
17	--	Purdue	5-2	L=OklahomaOT,Duke-16
23	--	Michigan	5-2	L@Mary-5,=Duke-15;w=UCLA+3
24	--	UCLA	4-2	L=Mich-3,@Texas-4
25t	--	Michigan State	4-2	L=Maryland-18,UNC-35

The other top ten that lost I predicted last week: Florida State, which I believe will be a very good team by the end of the year, was a bit overrated here (to put it mildly), not performing well and finally lost a game (to Northwestern, who enters at #20). But they saved themselves by beating Florida, handing the Gators their second loss and sending them out of the rankings. Florida and Purdue both have two losses to ranked teams so will be among the first 2-loss teams that get back in. The Seminoles fall to #21.

North Carolina solidified their lock on the #1 spot with a 35-point win over Michigan State that sent the Spartans packing, making them the third Big Ten team to drop from the rankings (but two entered as well). Connecticut and Wake Forest remain the next two, while Xavier and Villanova move up a slot to fill out the top five.

Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Dayton all remained undefeated and complete the top ten. Memphis, Tennessee, and Kansas follow; each has a single loss to one of the top ten teams.

The top debuts this week are #14 Butler (7-0), who previously beat Northwestern, and #15 Ohio State (5-0). The Buckeyes edged Notre Dame 67-62, which is better than #16 Texas can say, though the Longhorns defeated UCLA and knocked the Bruins out of the top 25 along with the Irish.

Clemson and BYU took advantage of the fact that six teams fell out this week to make their entry at the last two positions. Both teams are undefeated and rank high in one power rating or the other: The Tigers are #1 in Success, meaning at 9-0 they are the top team when only wins and losses (not margin of victory) are considered, and the Cougars are #11 in Strength, meaning they've been impressive in dispatching their eight foes so far.

This leaves four undefeated teams not yet in the rankings: Minnesota, LSU, Illinois State, and Stanford, who has played only four games so far this season. Will they make it next week? We'll soon find out...

SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 - week 3 -- mix and match

It was quite a Thanksgiving week in college basketball. Due to pre-conference tournament-time upsets, the Top 25 went through the ringer and back again, coming out mostly unscathed but jumbled around a bit.

First let's start at the top: North Carolina and Connecticut handled Notre Dame and Wisconsin to stay #1 and #2, but #3 Louisville fell to Western Kentucky. Wake Forest beat Baylor to move up to #3, while Duke and Xavier remained unbeaten and rounded out the top five.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 3 (11-30-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	North Carolina	7-0	w=NotreDame+15
2	2.	Connecticut	6-0	w=Wisconsin+19
4	3.	Wake Forest	6-0	w=Baylor+9
5	4.	Duke	7-0	w=Michigan+15
7	5.	Xavier	6-0	w=Memphis+5
12	6.	Villanova	6-0
15	7.	Oklahoma	6-0	w=PurdueOT
10	8.	Florida State	7-0
--	9.	Gonzaga	5-0	w=Tennessee+9
--	10.	Syracuse	7-0	w=Florida+6,@Kansas+8
22	11.	Pittsburgh	7-0
--	12.	Dayton	6-0	w=Marquette+14
13	13.	Memphis	4-1	L=Xavier-5
6	14.	Tennessee	5-1	L=Gonzaga-9
8	15.	Florida	5-1	L=Syracuse-6
14	16.	Kansas	4-1	L Syracuse-8
17	17.	Purdue	5-1	L=OklahomaOT
18	18.	Notre Dame	5-1	L=UNC-15;w=Texas+1
19	19.	Texas	5-1	L=NotreDame-1
9	20.	Marquette	5-1	L=Dayton-14
21	21.	Baylor	6-1	L=Wake-13;w=ArizSt+9
16	22.	Arizona State	4-1	L=Baylor-9
24	23.	Michigan	5-1	L=Duke-15;w=UCLA+3
25t	24.	UCLA	4-1	L=Mich-3
3	25t	Louisville	2-1	L WKentucky-14
11	25t	Michigan State	4-1	L=Maryland-18
		out:
20	--	West Virginia	4-1	L=Kentucky-11
23	--	Wisconsin	4-1	L=UConn-19
25t	--	Portland State	5-1	L=HamptonOT

The second five is more complicated. Villanova, Oklahoma, and Florida State stayed unbeaten, with Oklahoma edging Purdue in overtime and FSU continuing to win close games over decent competition. The Seminoles aren't playing like a top 25 team yet, but I've given them credit for getting wins. They're #1 in the Success power rating, which doesn't take margin of victory into account; they're 93rd in Strength, which does. Until they lose, though, they'll remain overrated here.

Flying into the last two spots in the top ten are Gonzaga and Syracuse, both of which had great weeks. Gonzaga beat former #6 Tennessee in the finals of the Old Spice Classic, while the Orangemen handled both Florida and Kansas in winning the CBE classic. Tennessee fell to #14, followed immediately by Florida and Kansas.

Pittsburgh swam through all of the carnage to jump to #11, followed by another new entrant, Dayton. The Flyers are back in the top 25 for the first time since the middle of last season after beating Marquette, who drops to #20, handily. Holding at #13 is Memphis, idle last week, who cuts the top 25 in half between undefeated and 1-loss teams.

Several teams remained right where they are despite losing. #17 Purdue's overtime loss to Oklahoma doesn't drop them; #18 Notre Dame lost to top-ranked North Carolina and beat #19 Texas by one point; #21 Baylor beat Arizona State and lost to #3 Wake Forest. The Sun Devils fall from #16 to #22.

Michigan and UCLA slide up a notch. The Wolverines had a lot of trouble at home against Savannah State, but holds a win over the Bruins and a sole loss to Duke.

Former #3 Louisville and ex-#11 Michigan State hang on by a thread, sharing the #25 spot. At 2-1, Louisville hasn't shown much other than that they can lose at home. Maybe losing David Padgett is going to hurt them this year like it did in the first half of last season? And though the Spartans rebounded nicely from their loss to Maryland, neither Georgetown nor Gonzaga had any trouble when they played the Terps.

Dropping out this week are West Virginia, who blew a lead against 4-2 Kentucky in the Las Vegas Invitational, Wisconsin (lost badly to UConn), and Portland State, a loser to Hampton in overtime.

Three's a charm: Power ratings for week 3 shaping up

After the third week, both power ratings are 100% better than they were in the early weeks, and the combined ratings have North Carolina on top and New Jersey Institute of Technology fifth from the bottom, so things are really shaping up. Here are this week's Combined power ratings through games of last Sunday (30th):

#   Team                       rec     Rating  (AP)
1.  North Carolina             7-0     43.76    1
2.  Gonzaga                    5-0     42.98    5
3.  Connecticut                6-0     32.86    2
4.  Duke                       7-0     32.30    4
5.  Pittsburgh                 7-0     31.18    3
6.  Clemson                    7-0     31.09   --
7.  Utah                       4-1     29.53   --
8.  Oklahoma                   6-0     29.18    6
9.  Tennessee                  5-1     27.88   10
10. Utah St.                   4-0     27.87   --
11. Villanova                  6-0     27.28   17
12. Wake Forest                6-0     25.97   15
13. Purdue                     5-1     24.99    9
14. Syracuse                   6-0     24.87   16
15. Xavier                     6-0     24.52   14
16. West Virginia              4-1     24.42   --
17. George Mason               5-1     24.24   --
18. Georgia Tech               4-0     23.70   --
19. Illinois                   6-0     23.67   --
20. Davidson                   5-1     23.45   22
21. Georgetown                 4-1     23.19   20
22. Dayton                     6-0     22.98   --
23. Texas                      5-1     22.60    8
24. Michigan St.               4-1     22.40    7
25. Notre Dame                 5-1     22.26   13

Now that looks like a top 25. In fact, it's remarkably close already to the AP top 25, particularly the top five. Still a few surprises, perhaps, but those might be insights as well: Utah and Utah State in the top ten might be an indication that these teams are pretty good...or it might just point to Southwest Baptist—the team that beat Utah—being the best team in Division II...more about that later. But Clemson, Illinois, and Dayton may be underrated by the AP (they're all in "others receiving votes"), while West Virginia, George Mason, and Georgia Tech are being overlooked (no votes at all).

Speaking of Division II, the listings are down to 340 teams, actually fewer teams than there are in Division I. Some big names are missing (for example, Louisville) because they haven't played enough games to be rated this week. The number should settle in at around 344 or so eventually, up from last year's 341. A number of teams joined Division I provisionally this year but not all play a full Division I schedule.

The Strength ratings are what mainly drives the Combined rankings early on:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Gonzaga                    5-0     33.38
2.  North Carolina             7-0     32.15
3.  Utah                       4-1     26.01
4.  Connecticut                6-0     25.10
5.  Utah St.                   4-0     24.96
6.  Tennessee                  5-1     24.26
7.  Duke                       7-0     22.82
8.  Pittsburgh                 7-0     22.71
9.  Purdue                     5-1     22.15
10. Davidson                   5-1     21.25

The Bulldogs are slightly ahead of the Tar Heels at this early juncture. Most of the other names are the usual suspects, with Davidson scoring ahead of Oklahoma due to home court advantage over the latter in the Sooners' win.

Again, the Utah teams come up; this is where they are getting their high combined rating, as neither rates in the top 40 in Success. This means they've beaten poor teams, but decisively. Utah's loss to a Division II team hurts them much more in the Success ratings; in Strength, since Southwest Baptist hasn't played any other Division I teams, there is no way for them to be rated other than relative to Utah...so essentially the game counts for very little. This way, blowing out a Division II team doesn't help, but the converse is true in that losing doesn't hurt. As long as Southwest Baptist doesn't play another Division I team—and I believe they do not all year—Utah pretty much gets a pass on it, at least in the Strength ratings. How they do in the rest of their games will determine their rating. As for Southwest Baptist, Utah's play so far suggests that they are the cream of the Division II crop.

This week's Success ratings:

#   Team                       rec     Rating
1.  Florida St.                7-0     12.01
2.  North Carolina             7-0     11.61
3.  Clemson                    7-0     11.22
4.  Syracuse                   6-0     10.53
5.  Villanova                  6-0     10.47
6.  Oklahoma                   6-0     10.29
7.  Illinois                   6-0      9.70
8.  Gonzaga                    5-0      9.60
9.  Xavier                     6-0      9.52
10. Duke                       7-0      9.47

The Seminoles rank first when margin of victory is not an issue. And for them that's a good thing, since four of their wins came by four points or fewer. They're only 93rd in Strength, suggesting a hard fall may be coming. But for now, according to this rating, their seven games have been against tougher foes than anyone else's, including North Carolina and Duke. Note the high rate of tournament winners here; winning a tournament is the easiest way to get early quality wins, since in a big tournament the final win is guaranteed to be over a team with several wins of its own.