NOTE!!: Click here for our most recent NCAA tournament projection
It's hard to believe the basketball season is already 1/4 over, but it's true. And with that, it's time for me to update my 2009 NCAA bracket projections. Or rather, seeding projections since I don't actually pair up the teams, though they could be S-curved starting at the top if you want to see the actual pairings. I don't bother since there's no way the actual pairings will be accurate, even for a bracket projected just a few days before selection Sunday, let alone 3 months prior.
My original projections went entirely by my pre-season rankings; the new projections are formulated like this: Conference tournament champs (in bold) are chosen using 50% current Strength power rating and 50% pre-season projections. This uses the results so far to tell us how strong a team is, and averages it with how strong they should have been, in case the results so far are a fluke. Then every team's future success is determined using this value, which is averaged with their Success ranking so far. In other words, 3/4 of the season has yet to be played, and that part is projected and combined with their wins and losses so far to see where they might rank in an RPI-style evaluation at the end of the year. The at-large teams are chosen this way.
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seed Team conf seed diff
[1] North Carolina ACC 1 =
[1] Connecticut Big East 1 =
[1] Duke ACC 3 2
[1] Oklahoma Big 12 4 3
[2] Pittsburgh Big East 7 5
[2] Gonzaga West Coast 8 6
[2] Tennessee SEC 2 =
[2] Wake Forest ACC 1 1
[3] Xavier Atlantic 10 4 1
[3] Ohio St. Big Ten 7 4
[3] Texas Big 12 6 3
[3] Arizona St. Pac-10 5 2
[4] Missouri Big 12 7 3
[4] Baylor Big 12 6 2
[4] Memphis C-USA 2 2
[4] Clemson ACC 10 6
[5] Georgetown Big East 8 3
[5] Villanova Big East 4 1
[5] Notre Dame Big East 5 =
[5] West Virginia Big East 6 1
[6] Louisville Big East 1 5
[6] Purdue Big Ten 5 1
[6] UCLA Pac-10 2 4
[6] Syracuse Big East 9 3
[7] Kansas Big 12 4 3
[7] South Carolina SEC 10 3
[7] Florida St. ACC 3 4
[7] Minnesota Big Ten 7 =
[8] Davidson Southern 12 4
[8] St. Mary's West Coast 8 =
[8] Florida SEC 2 6
[8] Michigan St. Big Ten 3 5
[9] Miami (FL) ACC 9 =
[9] Utah Mountain West 11 2
[9] Marquette Big East 3 6
[9] Brigham Young Mountain West -- new
[10] Northwestern Big Ten -- new
[10] Wisconsin Big Ten 6 4
[10] Kentucky SEC 11 1
[10] San Diego St. Mountain West 8 2
[11] Creighton Missouri Valley -- new
[11] Cincinnati Big East -- new
[11] Washington Pac-10 5 6
[11] Miami (OH) Mid-American -- new
[12] Boston Coll. ACC -- new
[12] California Pac-10 -- new
[12] Maryland ACC -- new
[12] Wisc-Green Bay Horizon 12 =
[13] Siena Metro Atlantic 12 1
[13] VCU Colonial Ath -- new
[13] Utah St. WAC -- new
[13] North Dakota St. Summit 10 3
[14] Belmont Atlantic Sun 15 1
[14] Murray St. Ohio Valley 16 2
[14] Vermont America East -- new
[14] Portland St. Big Sky 16 2
[15] S. F. Austin Southland 13 2
[15] M. Tenn. St. Sun Belt 14 1
[15] Mount St. Mary's Northeast 15 =
[15] Cornell Ivy League 14 1
[16] American Patriot League 15 1
[16] UC Santa Barbara Big West -- new
[16] Gardner-Webb Big South 16 =
[16p] Morgan St. Mid-Eastern -- new
[16p] Jackson St. SW Athletic -- new
North Carolina retains the top overall seed, and UConn repeats as a #1, but Wake Forest dips to a 3 seed and Louisville plummets all the way to a 6-seed. Replacing them as top seeds are Duke and Oklahoma. Pittsburgh is equal to Oklahoma in the projection, but consideration goes to the projected Big Twelve regular-season winner rather than have a second Big East team in at #1.
Big gainers include Gonzaga (from an 8 to a 2), Clemson (10 to a 4), and BYU and Northwestern, who were unseeded pre-season but look like a 9 and a 10 today. In all, fourteen teams move into the field.
Big losers include Florida (from a 2 to an 8), Marquette (3 to 9), and Providence and Alabama, who were 9 seeds originally but look like they won't make it at this point.
The Big East still leads with 10 teams in the field, down from 11 pre-season. All the #5 seeds are from the Big East! They lose Providence and Rutgers but gain Cincinnati in this competitive league. The ACC is close behind with 8 teams, up from 7 originally. They gain Maryland and Boston College while losing Virginia Tech. The Big Ten and Big 12 have five teams each, while the Pac-10 and SEC have four.
Several conference auto-bid projections have changed; among them: Creighton is now expected to win the Missouri Valley instead of last year's champ Drake; Miami of Ohio edges out Buffalo currently; Virginia Commonwealth is the new projected winner in the Colonial Athletic, replacing Northeastern; and Utah State is projected to win the WAC rather than Nevada.
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