SportsRatings: College Basketball

NBA Playoffs Odds, Analysis, and Predictions - East final: Boston vs. Detroit

Boston Celtics (66-16, 8-6; #1 seed)
Power Rating: 1st
Since All-Star break: 2nd
Trade/Injury Adj: 2nd
Home: 2nd; Road: 2nd

Detroit Pistons (59-23, 8-3; #2 seed)
Power Rating: 4th
Since All-Star break: 7th
Trade/Injury Adj: 4th
Home: 3rd; Road: 6th

Playoff performance

Once again, Boston needed seven—and all of its home games—to dispatch its foe. And this time the home games weren't all great performances. They stopped LeBron when they had to, especially early on, but had an even bigger scare than against Atlanta. Far from playing like the dominant team in the league, the Celtics' inability to win a single road game has to be a concern, particularly if they let the other team stay so close at the Garden.

The Pistons have, on the other hand, had time to relax after beating Orlando in five. The key game was the 1-point road victory, a rare quantity these days. They seemed to take Orlando much more seriously than they did Philadelphia, and reaped the benefits.

Analyses - per-game odds, home and away

1 - Power Rating, full season



             at Boston        at Detroit
Boston          63%               47%
Detroit         37%               53%

Boston's 63% chance to win at home matches their 63% chance to win the series. This one is actually pegged to go the distance, unlike Boston's last two surprisingly long series.

Verdict: Boston in seven.
Odds of winning series: Boston 63%; Detroit 37%
Odds of sweep: Boston 9%; Detroit 4%

2 - Power Rating, since All-Star Break



             at Boston        at Detroit

Boston          66.5%             45%
Detroit         33.5%             55%

Their recent 8-6 record puts Boston in 2nd place now in this power rating, behind the Lakers. But Detroit slips to 7th in the league and loses again in seven.

Verdict: Boston in seven.
Odds of winning series: Boston 66%; Detroit 34%
Odds of sweep: Boston 9%; Detroit 4%

 

3 - Power Rating, Trade/Injury analysis

             at Boston        at Detroit
Boston          63%               47%
Detroit         37%               53%

Boston with Garnett, and Detroit with Rip Hamilton; this analysis excludes all games where each team was missing its superstar. The result isn't any different than including all games. Boston, again, in seven.

Verdict: Boston in seven.
Odds of winning series: Boston 63%; Detroit 37%
Odds of sweep: Boston 9%; Detroit 4%

Prediction

Home court advantage carried the day in round 2. Though Boston isn't dominating, they're winning at home, and that's enough to win this series, again, by seven. Of course that leaves the door wide open for Detroit to win game seven if the Celtics slip at all, but it's just as likely that Boston finally wins one on the road and closes it out in six.

NBA Playoffs Odds, Analysis, and Predictions - West final: Los Angeles vs. San Antonio

Los Angeles Lakers (57-25, 8-3; #1 seed)
Power Rating: 2nd
Since All-Star break: 1st
Trade/Injury Adj: 1st
Home: 7th; Road: 1st

San Antonio Spurs (56-26, 8-4; #4 seed)
Power Rating: 6th
Since All-Star break: 8th
Trade/Injury Adj: 9th
Home: 4th; Road: 10th

1st round performance

The Lakers have beaten two of the better home teams in the league, and won a total of three games on the road, a rarity this playoff season. More impressively, a partially-lame Kobe Bryant didn't spell the end for them against the Spurs, as they closed out the series in Salt Lake City. The Spurs, too, came through with a road win when everything was on the line in New Orleans.

Analyses - per-game odds, home and away

1 - Power Rating, full season



             at Los Angeles        at San Antonio
Los Angeles       62%                  46%
San Antonio       38%                  54%

The defending champ Spurs are turning it up at the end, but over the course of the entire season the Lakers rate better. The series should go the distance unless the Lakers can win another road game.

Verdict: Los Angeles in seven.
Odds of winning series: Los Angeles 57%; San Antonio 43%
Odds of sweep: Los Angeles 8%; San Antonio 4%

2 - Power Rating, since All-Star Break



             at Los Angeles        at San Antonio

Los Angeles       64%                42%
San Antonio       36%                58%

With their playoff performance and Boston's obvious difficulties, the Lakers are now the #1 team since the All-Star break. San Antonio slips a bit, ranking 8th, and that means that L.A. is favored by this measure as well.

Verdict: Los Angeles in seven.
Odds of winning series: Los Angeles 60%; San Antonio 40%
Odds of sweep: Los Angeles 7%; San Antonio 4%

 

3 - Power Rating, Trade/Injury analysis

             at Los Angeles        at San Antonio
Los Angeles       66%                 49%
San Antonio       34%                 51%

The Lakers are far in front of everyone by this measure, and take the series more easily, with an almost equal chance of winning in six or seven.

Verdict: Los Angeles in seven.
Odds of winning series: Los Angeles 69%; San Antonio 31%
Odds of sweep: Los Angeles 10%; San Antonio 2%

Prediction

The Lakers, and Kobe Bryant, are playing exceptionally well. The Spurs aren't doing poorly, either, and in this climate, where road wins are almost unheard of, both teams have been particularly impressive in actually winning a few games on the road. But given the home court advantage and their momentum, the Lakers should be able to take one at San Antonio, as well, and win in six. They're just a bit hungrier than the defending champs.

Celtics/Cavs series at 2-0: analysis

The Boston Celtics lead the Cleveland Cavaliers 2-0 after two games at the Garden. Though this was expected, there was some fear among Boston fans that Cleveland and LeBron James would be emboldened by Atlanta's performance in taking their series with the Celtics to seven games. So far, that hasn't happened, but did Boston do everything it had to—aside from winning—in the first two games? And what does it point to for the rest of the series?

Boston basically had to accomplish two things in the first home stretch to lay the foundation for certain victory in the series.

1) Stop LeBron James

On this they get an A+. Whatever they've done, it's worked like a charm: James is 8 of 42 shooting for the series so far, scoring just 12 in the first game and 21 in the second, while committing a total of 17 turnovers. Good defense? Certainly. But there's more.

James shot just 2 of 18 the first game. Some of that has to be a fluke, an imperfect storm of bad luck for LeBron. But he followed it up by shooting 6 of 24 the next game. Taken together, that's a little too much to attribute to even bad luck and good defense combined. I think the answer is the Celtics have gotten inside his head, and hurt his confidence.

Think about James' age, relative to say, Kevin Garnett. James is 23, Garnett will be 33 in about a week. Flash back ten years: James is 13, a budding star even before high school. But Garnett is 22, already in the NBA for several seasons, and already a superstar. It's almost a certainty that James idolized Garnett at this point. He'd later become the first high school basketball player to make the Sports Illustrated cover since Garnett.

Now, return to the present. Garnett has been know to talk trash to players. He's been talking to James a lot during breaks. Is this having an effect on James? We tend to think of elite athletes as machines, impervious to psychological manipulation, but when a former idol tells you that you ain't shit, you're gonna miss all your shots....especially on the road, and you're still just 23 years old? It could be a key reason that LeBron hasn't been LeBron so far. Part of his play is due to the Celtics' defense, but if he were at his best, he wouldn't be playing like a benchwarmer. And that part of the equation won't be the same in Cleveland, where he has the emotional support of thousands of fans and a determination to win for them.

2) Dominate the home games

On this point, Boston didn't do quite as well. Though the 2nd game was a blowout, the first game was actually competitive.

Boston wanted to completely dominate both games, giving the series a sense of inevitability. Atlanta was able to hang on in their series by winning close games at home, but in Boston they couldn't do anything right. Since Boston had the majority of games at home, it ultimately didn't matter if Atlanta won at their own house.

And this is what Boston wanted to say to Cleveland: there's no chance of you winning at the Garden. In order to win the series, Cleveland has to win at least one game at Boston. Shutting this door effectively shuts the series down. With no hope of winning for the Cavaliers, the games at Cleveland become easier for the Celtics. After all, if there's no chance to win the series, why (subconsciously) play your hardest at home? Take away hope, and you take away a lot of intangibles, and Boston could score some wins on the road and end the series sooner.

The first game was portrayed as a Boston defensive seminar on how to stop LeBron James. But at the same time, it opened up questions. If Cleveland can stay this close to Boston, at Boston, while James is shooting 2 of 18, what happens when James has an inevitable good game? Answer: They should be able to win easily at Cleveland, and maybe even take one away on the road. Far from making a statement, game 1 actually has to be very encouraging for the Cavaliers for their chances in the series, even being down 2-0.

From here

But first, of course, LeBron James has to have a good game in game 3, and the Cavs have to win. If they fall short in either category, the series is likely over. They need a win, of course, to not be down 3-0 and to establish that the home games are theirs. And James needs a good game as well, otherwise he'll start to believe he can't play Boston anywhere. The Cavs can't afford him to get this mindset.

Two Cavalier wins at home would even the series and put the onus on Boston again to defend their home court. With the weakness Boston showed in game one, and with James over being psyched out, the games in the Garden could be very competitive.

If Boston wins one of two in Cleveland, James will need to be at his very best for the Cavs to have a chance in the series. I expect James to rebound in a big way tonight, and lead the Cavs to victory. Game four is more up in the air.

Ultimately, Boston only needs to win at home. With their narrow victory in game one, they've left the door open for Cleveland to steal one; by taking one in Cleveland, and/or continuing their shutdown of James, they can quickly close the door.

Video: Flagrant 2 on Marvin Williams fouling Rajon Rondo in Boston vs. Atlanta game 7

From Sunday's Celtic blowout of the Hawks, here's the foul that got Marvin Williams ejected:

I think the announcers said it all, for once.

NBA Playoffs Odds, Analysis, and Predictions - 2nd round: Boston vs. Cleveland

Boston Celtics (66-16, 4-3; #1 seed)
Power Rating: 1st
Since All-Star break: 1st
Trade/Injury Adj: 2nd
Home: 2nd; Road: 2nd

Cleveland Cavaliers (45-37, 4-2; #4 seed)
Power Rating: 15th
Since All-Star break: 15th
Trade/Injury Adj: 14th
Home: 17th; Road: 15th

1st round performance

What can we say about Boston's performance? Their worry-inducing 4-3 win over the mediocre Atlanta Hawks revealed plenty of weaknesses, but mostly had to hurt the Celts' confidence. But the concern is mainly for road games; at home, Boston played their best 'ball of the season, winning four games by an average of 25 points. Their road play wasn't awful; all the games were close, and they held double-digit leads in each of them. But that's where the concern is: that they blew these leads and lost. This makes them vulnerable to any team on the road. Luckily for Boston, they have the home court advantage for the rest of the playoffs.

Cleveland's 4-2 series over the Washington Wizards was impressive at times; they stole one at Washington on LeBron's last-second three, but also had a 1-point home loss. They finished strong by emphatically drubbing the Wizards 105-88 on the road.

Analyses - per-game odds, home and away

1 - Power Rating, full season

             at Boston        at Cleveland
Boston          80%               65%
Cleveland       20%               35%

Boston's recent woes don't count for much when the whole season is averaged, and weighted equally. Though the Celtics are a 92% favorite to win the series, Cav fans should note that Atlanta rated only a 4% chance, and they had the series tied 3-3.

Verdict: Boston in five.
Odds of winning series: Boston 92%; Cleveland 8%
Odds of sweep: Boston 27%; Cleveland 0.5%

2 - Power Rating, since All-Star Break

             at Boston        at Cleveland
Boston          80%               62%
Cleveland       20%               38%

Play since the All-Star break hasn't changed the values that much, though Cleveland gets a bit of a boost to their chances at home.

Verdict: Boston in five.
Odds of winning series: Boston 91%; Cleveland 9%
Odds of sweep: Boston 25%; Cleveland 1%

 

3 - Power Rating, Trade/Injury analysis

             at Boston        at Cleveland
Boston          78%                64%
Cleveland       22%                36%

This analysis pits Boston, filtering out their games sans Garnett, with the made-over Cavaliers since their big trade in February. The "new" Cavs are slightly better than before, but the team didn't change that much despite overhauling LeBron's supporting cast.

Verdict: Boston in five.
Odds of winning series: Boston 90%; Cleveland 10%
Odds of sweep: Boston 25%; Cleveland 1%

4 - Power Rating, Home/road analysis

             at Boston        at Cleveland
Boston          71%                74%
Cleveland       29%                26%

This analysis reflects Boston's 1st round the most. The Celtic's home component got even better, while their road score fell; during the regular season, they were easily the best road team, but have fallen to 2nd due to just one series. Still, that's considered enough to handle the Cavs, who are relatively better on the road than at home.

Verdict: Boston in five.
Odds of winning series: Boston 90%; Cleveland 10%
Odds of sweep: Boston 28%; Cleveland 1%

Prediction

How much does the Atlanta series change the trajectory for Boston? There's always a tendency to put too much weight on a team's recent performance...but the Celtics deserve some downgrade for what happened in Atlanta. The team blew leads, blew their tempers, and almost blew the series. Is their confidence shot? Or was this a wake-up call? If they can't stop young athletic types like Josh Smith one-on-one, how will they handle LeBron James?

One thing is clear though: Boston is playing lights out at home. Whatever trouble they have on the road, the Garden will bail them out. All my projections have them winning in five; I'll allow the Cavaliers a home sweep in the first two, but the Celtics will close it out at Cleveland in six.

NBA Playoffs Odds, Analysis, and Predictions - 2nd round: Los Angeles vs. Utah

Los Angeles Lakers (57-25, 4-0; #1 seed)
Power Rating: 2nd
Since All-Star break: 2nd
Trade/Injury Adj: 1st
Home: 6th; Road: 1st

Utah Jazz (54-28, 4-2; #4 seed)
Power Rating: 3rd
Since All-Star break: 3rd
Trade/Injury Adj: 5th
Home: 1st; Road: 11th

1st round performance

The Lakers had the only sweep of the first round, and impressively it was against Denver, the 4th best home-team in the league. Now they take on Utah, the #1 home team in the NBA. The Jazz beat the Houston Rockets 4-2, though, in an unorthodox fashion, taking the first two games on the road, then losing by 2 points at home for only their fifth loss of the season in Salt Lake City. The Jazz then won the series by defending the home court. Not as impressive as the Lakers' sweep, but not bad considering the competition, and the fact that they were within 2 points of sweeping the Rockets.

Analyses - per-game odds, home and away

1 - Power Rating, full season

             at Los Angeles        at Utah
Los Angeles       59.5%              45%
Utah              40.5%              55%

At #2 and #3 in the league, these teams are fairly evenly matched. Los Angeles has the edge, and with the extra home game they are clear favorites.

Verdict: Los Angeles in seven.
Odds of winning series: Los Angeles 57%; Utah 43%
Odds of sweep: Los Angeles 7%; Utah 5%

2 - Power Rating, since All-Star Break

             at Los Angeles        at Utah
Los Angeles       59%                44%
Utah              41%                56%

Past mid-February, the two teams are still #2 and #3, though Utah is a bit closer. The sweep made a difference here; before the playoffs, Utah was #2 in this projection. Since we're dealing with a smaller sample size, the Laker's 4-0 streak has moved them ahead of the Jazz.

Verdict: Los Angeles in seven.
Odds of winning series: Los Angeles 56%; Utah 44%
Odds of sweep: Los Angeles 7%; Utah 5%

 

3 - Power Rating, Trade/Injury analysis

             at Los Angeles        at Utah
Los Angeles       69%                55%
Utah              31%                45%

Since acquiring Pau Gasol, the Lakers have been the best team in the NBA when he plays. In this comparison they rout the Jazz, even being favored in the road games. They're expected to win in six, with over a 3/4 chance of winning the series and a decent 14% chance to sweep.

Verdict: Los Angeles in six.
Odds of winning series: Los Angeles 77%; Utah 23%
Odds of sweep: Los Angeles 14%; Utah 2%

4 - Power Rating, Home/road analysis

             at Los Angeles        at Utah
Los Angeles       55.5%              47.5%
Utah              45.5%              52.5%

This series interestingly pits the #1 home team (Utah) against the #1 road team (L.A.) The Jazz retain their advantage at home, but it's a slight one. The other comparison is more forgiving to the Lakers, the #6 home team, since Utah is only the 11th best road team, despite beating Houston on the road twice in the first round. Again, it comes down to the Lakers owning one more home game.

Verdict: Los Angeles in seven.
Odds of winning series: Los Angeles 55%; Utah 45%
Odds of sweep: Los Angeles 7%; Utah 6%

Prediction

The Lakers are just playing too well with Pau Gasol for me to pick the Jazz. The sweep over Denver was the clincher; if they can play that well on the road, then Utah's great home play is mitigated. Even if Utah defends at home, they will likely lose the series in seven. If the Jazz give up one at home like they did against the Rockets, it will be over sooner.

NBA bracket projections - updated for round 2

Taking the three power-rating-based NBA playoff projections I made earlier, I've updated them starting with Round 2, and added a fourth projection based on home/road performance. I've left Round 1 in the charts, with the original percentages in the projection, noting incorrect results in red.

These projections were determined before Saturday's round 2 results. Note: if Boston loses to Atlanta Sunday, this will greatly affect the brackets, of course! And I will have to change the projection. It's not my fault the NBA starts Round 2 before Round 1 is over...!

Overall the big winner in improvement is L.A.; they now make the finals in all the projections, and still win the title in one of them. Utah is the loser, falling to the Lakers in every matchup, whereas last time the made it to the finals in Projection #2.

Projection #1: Full-season - This power rating uses all games in the season, equally weighted.

Lakers_69%__
            |_Lakers 57%__
Denver_31%__|             |
                          |_Lakers 60%__
Houston_42%_              |             |
            |__Utah 43%___|             |
Utah_58%____|                           |
                                        |__Lakers 40%__
Spurs 53%___                            |              |
            |__Spurs 43%__              |              |
Phoenix_47%_|             |             |              |
                          |_Hornets 40%_|              |
Hornets 54%_              |                            |
            |_Hornets 57%_|                            |
Dallas_46%__|                                          |
                                                       |___Boston___
Boston_96%__                                           |
            |_Boston 92%__                             |
Atlanta_4%__|             |                            |
                          |_Boston 66%__               |
Cavs 48%____              |             |              |
            |___Cavs 8%___|             |              |
Wizards 52%_|                           |              |
                                        |__Boston 60%__|
Orlando_65%_                            |
            |_Orlando 39%_              |
Toronto_35%_|             |             |
                          |_Detroit 34%_|
Detroit_81%_              |
            |_Detroit 61%_|
76ers_19%___|

No changes in this analysis since round one in terms of who makes/wins the finals. The Celtics actually improve their odds of beating Cleveland and Detroit slightly...their home court domination of Atlanta more than offset the three close upsets on the road. The Celtics odds of beating the Lakers, however, decreased from 64% to 60%, mostly due to L.A.'s performance in their sweep of Denver.

Projection #2: Games since All-Star break - This projection is calculated using only games that have been played since mid-February, ignoring results that ocurred before that time.

Lakers_61%__
            |_Lakers 56%__
Denver_39%__|             |
                          |_Lakers 59%__
Houston_47%_              |             |
            |__Utah 44%___|             |
Utah_53%____|                           |
                                        |_Lakers 41%___
Spurs 54%___                            |              |
            |__Spurs 37%__              |              |
Phoenix_46%_|             |             |              |
                          |_Hornets 41%_|              |
Hornets 54%_              |                            |
            |_Hornets 63%_|                            |
Dallas_46%__|                                          |
                                                       |___Boston___
Boston_96%__                                           |
            |_Boston 91%__                             |
Atlanta_4%__|             |                            |
                          |_Boston 63%__               |
Cavs 53%____              |             |              |
            |__Cavs 9%____|             |              |
Wizards 47%_|                           |              |
                                        |__Boston 59%__|
Orlando_84%_                            |
            |_Orlando 56%_              |
Toronto_16%_|             |             |
                          |_Orlando 37%_|
Detroit_61%_              |
            |_Detroit 44%_|
76ers_39%___|

This projection got everything right in the first round, unlike projections 1 and 3. Before round one, the Lakers-Jazz matchup was won by the Jazz, 52% to 48%, but no longer. Now the Lakers cruise into the finals in this projection as well. Boston still beats the Lakers as easily as they were formerly projected to beat the Jazz.

Projection #3: Trade/Injury adjustment - This power rating, as explained in earlier posts, separates team games into groups based on who was playing for them, either due to trade or injury. Considering the sheer number of big trades made this year, some teams hardly resemble their former selves from earlier in the season.

Lakers_83%__
            |_Lakers 77%__
Denver_17%__|             |
                          |_Lakers 72%__
Houston_49%_              |             |
            |__Utah 23%___|             |
Utah_51%____|                           |
                                        |__Lakers 58%__
Spurs 47%___                            |              |
            |_Spurs 32%___              |              |
Phoenix_53%_|             |             |              |
                          |_Hornets 28%_|              |
Hornets 48%_              |                            |
            |_Hornets 68%_|                            |
Dallas_52%__|                                          |
                                                       |___Lakers___
Boston_96%__                                           |
            |_Boston 90%__                             |
Atlanta_4%__|             |                            |
                          |_Boston 65%__               |
Cavs 46%____              |             |              |
            |__Cavs 10%___|             |              |
Wizards 54%_|                           |              |
                                        |__Boston 42%__|
Orlando_55%_                            |
            |_Orlando 37%_              |
Toronto_45%_|             |             |
                          |_Detroit 35%_|
Detroit_79%_              |
            |_Detroit 63%_|
76ers_21%___|

Before round one, Dallas was projected to narrowly beat the Hornets, then beat the Suns to advance to the conference finals against the Lakers. This won't happen, obviously, since neither the Mavs nor Suns pulled off the minor upset originally predicted by the trade/injury adjustments. Now it's the Lakers all the way, even more dominant than they were in this projection last time around. The win over Utah is much easier, they beat the Hornets the same as they were to beat the Mavs, and the final series against Boston, which was a squeaker two weeks ago is much more pronounced.

Projection #4: Home/road analysis - This power rating separates home and road teams into separate entities, yielding a specific home/road strength for each team, rather than using a one-size-fits-all home court advantage.

Lakers_70%__
            |_Lakers 55%__
Denver_30%__|             |
                          |_Lakers 55%__
Houston_43%_              |             |
            |__Utah 45%___|             |
Utah_57%____|                           |
                                        |_Lakers 40%___
Spurs 51%___                            |              |
            |__Spurs 46%__              |              |
Phoenix_49%_|             |             |              |
                          |_Hornets 45%_|              |
Hornets 54%_              |                            |
            |_Hornets 54%_|                            |
Dallas_46%__|                                          |
                                                       |___Boston___
Boston_95%__                                           |
            |_Boston 90%__                             |
Atlanta_5%__|             |                            |
                          |_Boston 62%__               |
Cavs 47%____              |             |              |
            |__Cavs 10%___|             |              |
Wizards 53%_|                           |              |
                                        |__Boston 60%__|
Orlando_64%_                            |
            |_Orlando 42%_              |
Toronto_36%_|             |             |
                          |_Detroit 38%_|
Detroit_79%_              |
            |_Detroit 58%_|
76ers_21%___|

These results echo Projection #1 pretty closely—which is no surprise, since they both use the full-season of data. Even though home and road teams are separated, most teams hue pretty close to the average advantage in this department. But there are a few interesting results, such as Boston winning the championship by winning games at L.A., for example. The Lakers rank as the 2nd best road team, but only the 7th best home team. For round 1, simulated using only data from before the playoffs, results were largely the same as Projection #1, including the erroneous Wizards pick.

Chris Paul—not Kobe Bryant—is the SportsRatings NBA MVP

On the heels of the news that Kobe Bryant will be named the league MVP, it's time to announce our own algorithmically-determined award. The SportsRatings NBA Most Valuable Player award goes to Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets. Bryant finished fourth in the rankings.

Paul narrowly defeated Amare Stoudemire of Phoenix and Kevin Garnett of Boston. Statistics for the regular season were used to determine the award; playoff stats are not counted.

LeBron James of Cleveland was fifth, followed by Tim Duncan, Dwight Howard, Carlos Boozer, Steve Nash, and last year's winner, Dirk Nowitzki.

	Player	Team	Output per game	Season output	Output per min.	Total score	MVP rating
1	Chris Paul	NO	25.9	2072	0.689	1,427	974.8
2	Amare Stoudemire	PHO	24.6	1943.4	0.726	1,410	946.3
3	Kevin Garnett	BOS	22.6	1604.6	0.689	1,106	890.0
4	Kobe Bryant	LAL	23.9	1959.8	0.614	1,204	836.8
5	LeBron James	CLE	28.1	2107.5	0.696	1,466	804.8
6	Tim Duncan	SA	22.2	1731.6	0.653	1,131	772.2
7	Dwight Howard	ORL	23.6	1935.2	0.626	1,211	768.0
8	Carlos Boozer	UTA	21.5	1741.5	0.616	1,073	707.0
9	Steve Nash	PHO	21.1	1709.1	0.615	1,051	705.5
10	Dirk Nowitzki	DAL	22.8	1755.6	0.633	1,112	691.6

The algorithm (explained here more fully) uses an array of available stats to determine the player's contribution to the team (Total Performance Score), and the per-minute efficiency with which they achieve their results. The MVP ranking takes into account the team's performance, as well.

The stats leader in both per-game and entire season Total Performance was LeBron James. He also finished first in Total Score, which is season Total Performance multiplied by per-minute Efficiency. Amare Stoudemire was the leader (among those who had enough playing time) in Efficiency.

NBA Playoffs Odds, Analysis, and Predictions - 2nd round: New Orleans vs. San Antonio

New Orleans Hornets (56-26, 4-1; #2 seed)
Power Rating: 5th
Since All-Star break: 5th
Trade/Injury Adj: 3rd
Home: 8th; Road: 4th

San Antonio Spurs (56-26, 4-1; #3 seed)
Power Rating: 6th
Since All-Star break: 7th
Trade/Injury Adj: 9th
Home: 5th; Road: 9th

1st round performance

Both teams impressively won their series in five games, the Hornets knocking out Dallas and San Antonio dispatching the Suns. Each team dropped only one road game, though the Spurs needed double overtime for one of their home wins. All in all, about equally impressive, lending little differentiation between these teams that finished the regular season with identical records. The Hornets got the #2 seed, however, and with it, the all-important extra home game.

Analyses - per-game odds, home and away

1 - Power Rating, full season

             at New Orleans        at San Antonio
New Orleans         60%               44.5%
San Antonio         40%               55.5%

Like their records, the teams' ratings for the season are neck-and-neck. The extra home game for New Orleans gives them the win in seven.

Verdict: New Orleans in seven.
Odds of winning series: New Orleans 57%; San Antonio 43%
Odds of sweep: New Orleans 7%; San Antonio 5%

2 - Power Rating, since All-Star Break

             at New Orleans        at San Antonio
New Orleans         64%                45%
San Antonio         36%                55%

Both teams have improved since the All-Star break, but New Orleans has turned it up more, giving them a bigger edge in this analysis. Still, it's close enough to project them needing seven games.

Verdict: New Orleans in seven.
Odds of winning series: New Orleans 63%; San Antonio 37%
Odds of sweep: New Orleans 8%; San Antonio 4%

 

3 - Power Rating, Trade/Injury analysis

             at New Orleans        at San Antonio
New Orleans         65%                49%
San Antonio         35%                51%

While San Antonio has played consistently even when missing some of their better players, New Orleans improves quite a bit when Bonzi Wells is playing. They almost win this analysis in six games.

Verdict: New Orleans in seven.
Odds of winning series: New Orleans 68%; San Antonio 32%
Odds of sweep: New Orleans 10%; San Antonio 3%

4 - Power Rating, Home/road analysis

             at New Orleans        at San Antonio
New Orleans         54%                49%
San Antonio         46%                51%

San Antonio has a bigger home court advantage than New Orleans; this is more than offset by the Hornets being a better road team than the Spurs.

Verdict: New Orleans in seven.
Odds of winning series: New Orleans 54%; San Antonio 46%
Odds of sweep: New Orleans 7%; San Antonio 5.5%

Prediction

Despite the teams having identical records and each analysis predicting a seven game series, New Orleans comes out on top each time. Of course, the major factor than these paper analysis don't take into account is experience. The Spurs are defending champs and have been through the playoff ringer countless times, while the Hornets are essentially neophytes. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobelli and crew have "turned it up" at the end of the year more than once, and matching up with them could be a problem for the Hornets. Then again, at some point you have to question whether the Spurs can have the same hunger as they did in the past. The biggest advantage the Hornets have is the extra home game. Although I bet against them in the first round, I'm taking the Hornets in seven, with Chris Paul leading the way in a very rough series.

NBA Playoffs Odds, Analysis, and Prediction - 2nd round: Detroit vs. Orlando

Detroit Pistons (59-23, 4-2; #2 seed)
Power Rating: 4th
Since All-Star break: 8th
Trade/Injury Adj: 4th
Home: 3rd; Road: 6th

Orlando Magic (52-30, 4-1; #3 seed)
Power Rating: 8th
Since All-Star break: 6th
Trade/Injury Adj: 10th
Home: 12th; Road: 3rd

1st round performance

At first glance it may appear that Detroit had a poor showing against Philadelphia, falling behind 2-1 while suffering a home loss and a 20-point beatdown in Philly. But I envisioned the series going six, and predicted as well that the 76ers would win in a blowout one of their home games; this is more a reflection of the 'Sixers characters than the Pistons. While Detroit's home loss was unexpected, it was probably due to overconfidence, and the Pistons impressively closed out the series winning three straight. Overall they didn't change my opinion of them very much.

Orlando took care of Toronto in five games, slightly better than expected. This included a 1-point win at home, so the series could easily have gone further. All in all, Orlando impressed but again, not so much as to change their fundamental ratings.

Analyses - per-game odds, home and away

1 - Power Rating, full season

             at Detroit        at Orlando
Detroit         62%               46%
Orlando         38%               54%

By this analysis Detroit has a big edge at home and is a slight underdog on the road. The Pistons may win it in six but will probably have to close it out in Detroit.

Verdict: Detroit in seven.
Odds of winning series: Detroit 61%; Orlando 39%
Odds of sweep: Detroit 8%; Orlando 4%

2 - Power Rating, since All-Star Break

             at Detroit        at Orlando
Detroit         55%               62.5%
Orlando         45%               37.5%

Since the All-Star break, Orlando has played a lot better while Detroit has slipped. This puts the Magic in the driver's seat except for the home court advantage, where the Pistons with the 2nd best record in the East have the deciding 7th game at home. Despite this, Orlando should steal one from them and win the series in seven.

Verdict: Orlando in seven.
Odds of winning series: Detroit 44%; Orlando 56%
Odds of sweep: Detroit 4%; Orlando 8%

 

3 - Power Rating, Trade/Injury analysis

             at Detroit        at Orlando
Detroit         63%               47%
Orlando         37%               53%

Neither team was very impacted by trades and injuries this season, though Detroit ranks better with Rip Hamilton than without, giving Detroit a slight boost in the numbers.

Verdict: Detroit in seven.
Odds of winning series: Detroit 63%; Orlando 37%
Odds of sweep: Detroit 9%; Orlando 4%

4 - Power Rating, Home/road analysis

             at Detroit        at Orlando
Detroit         51%               57%
Orlando         49%               43%

Orlando is not an exceptional home team, ranking 12th in the league, while Detroit ranks 3rd. However, the Magic are almost as good on the road as they are at home, ranking 3rd behind only the Lakers and Boston. The result of this is that Detroit might—strangely enough—have an easier time in Orlando than they do at home this series. Essentially it means that every game is up for grabs, but the Pistons have the edge each time.

Verdict: Detroit in seven.
Odds of winning series: Detroit 58%; Orlando 42%
Odds of sweep: Detroit 8%; Orlando 4%

Prediction

This series is going to be about matchups and strategy more than about past performance. Stopping or slowing down Dwight Howard is imperative for the Pistons. How each team responds, game-by-game, to what the other team does successfully will determine the winner in what should be a full seven-game series. The Pistons have the obvious edge with the home court for four of those games, though Orlando plays just as effectively on the road. But Detroit plays well on the road, too, and Orlando has trouble defending its own court. This should be an interesting series, and with Boston looking vulnerable the winner may have an opening to the finals. I'll take Detroit in seven, barring a Superman-like effort from Howard.