The previous post contains my end-of-season NBA Power Rating, one covering the entire season, and one limited to games played since the All-Star break. Boston comes up #1 in both analysis, defeating one of two Eastern Conference teams. A third method, however, gives another view of the playoff teams and perhaps fortells a different champion.
In this rating, I group each team's games into groupings affected by trades or injuries. For example, Phoenix with Shaq and Phoenix with Shawn Marion are split into two separate teams. Likewise, Houston with and without Yao Ming, Dallas with Jason Kidd, etc. For each playoff team I made any split that included a major player (either starters, scoring leaders, or those who played 25+ minutes), affected 10 or more games, and produced different results that weren't completely unreasonable. That is to say, there was a noticeable change in the team's rating, and it didn't show, for example, a key player's absence helping the team.
Here is an analysis and explanation of the results:
1. LA Lakers +Gasol -Bynum 22-4 10.78
The Lakers with Pau Gasol finish at the top, ahead of even Boston. This was a bit surprising to me, since the post-All-Star Game Lakers rated far below the early-season Lakers. But that includes 10 games in which Gasol didn't play. Considering only those in which he did, the Lakers are possibly the best team in the league. They're quite a bit better than the team was with Bynum—that squad would rate #6—and far better than the team played without either big man (12th). Considering this—and the fact that Bynum should return at some point during the playoffs—and the Lakers have a great shot at winning it all. What this analysis shows is that they can do it even if Bynum stays out the rest of the year.
2. Boston +Garnett 57-14 9.81
To be fair to Boston, and not penalize them for the games they played without Kevin Garnett, I separated those games out, even though there were only 11 of them. It turns out Boston with Garnett is about 3 points better. Still a good team without him (they'd be #4 on this list), it's Garnett that should put them at least in the championship game.
3. New Orleans +Bonzi 13-7 7.16
This might be the biggest surprise. Bonzi Wells, traded from Houston during the All-Star break, has become the team's 5th leading scorer while playing only 20 minutes a game. In the games he's played, New Orleans is better than they are without him: Old New Orleans ranks just 11th. Of course, this could also just be a reflection of how well the team is playing since the All-Star break. But as he's played more time, the Hornets are doing better, one way or another.
4. Dallas +Kidd +JS 11-8 7.14
The massive and controversial trade for Jason Kidd seems to be working—as long as Jerry Stackhouse is playing. Without him, and with Kidd, Dallas is 5-5. Still, that rates one spot (11th vs. 12th) than they play without Kidd. Altogether, when the two of them are playing, the Mavs are more than 4 points better than they are without both of them.
5. Detroit +Rip 52-20 6.97
No surprise here; in the ten games without Rip Hamilton, the Pistons play worse, by about 2 points. The Hamilton-less Pistons rank 8th in this admittedly small sample.
6. Utah +Okur 50-22 6.94
Likewise, Mehmet Okur improves Utah by about 2.5 points per game, and puts the Jazz at 6th rather than 12th. When he doesn't play, they're 4-6.
7. Houston -Yao +TMac 19-8 6.17
Houston is the most interesting case: they actually are playing better without Yao. Seemingly unintuitive, it can be explained by team chemistry. It's not that Yao makes them worse, but that without him other players have been more free to contribute. In addition, the players replacing him—Dkimbe Mtumbo and Carl Landy—have done an excellent job. Perhaps most significantly, Tracy MacGrady has continued to improve coming off his injuries, which hobbled him most of the times he played with Yao.
Here's how the Houston squads compare:
- 7. Houston -Yao +TMac 19-8 6.17
- 12. Houston (+Yao,-TMac) 8-7 4.41
- 12. Houston (+Yao,+TMac) 28-12 3.52
8. Phoenix +Shaq 17-11 5.60
This is the big one. And it looks like the Pro-Shaq contingent was right—barely. Phoenix with Shaquille O'Neal rates roughly 2/3 of a point better than the old Phoenix with Shawn Marion, and one spot better. But that might be an important spot, as it puts them ahead of San Antonio, their first-round opponent. Without Shaq or Shawn, naturally, the Suns drop considerably.
9. San Antonio 56-26 5.13
There weren't any major changes when scoring the Spurs without Brent Barry, nor in the games that Tony Parker missed. Their play over the course of the year has been fairly consistent.
10. Denver +KMartin 46-25 4.97
Kenyon Martin is really a key to Denver's success, as
judged by their performance without him: they're a stunning 7 points
worse, falling to 19th in the league. That's not to say he's more
important than Carmelo Anthony or Allen Iverson. But his role on the
team can't be overlooked, and if he'd missed just a few more games,
they wouldn't be in the playoffs despite their superstar duo.
11. Toronto +Bosh +TJFord 19-15 4.81
Chris Bosh has a huge effect on Toronto's play. T.J. Ford, likewise, though not nearly as pronounced. Losing Ford would drop them to 12th; losing Bosh would drop them to 21st.
12. Orlando 52-30 4.54
I tested Orlando without Maurice Evans and without Jameer Nelson; both times the team came up slightly better without them. Which points to statistical fluke, since neither had missed a huge amount of games.
14. Washington +Butler 33-25 0.72
The Wizards haven't played better when Arenas is available, mostly because he hasn't been fully healthy much. But Caron Butler's presence definitely elevates them, to the tune of about 5 points, and prevents them from being a well-below-average team at #21.
15. Philadelphia 40-42 0.28
The 76ers play about the same now as when they had Kyle Korver.
16. Cleveland new 14-13 0.25
Cleveland went through a lot of changes around the all-star break, gaining Delonte West, Ben Wallace, and Wally Szczerbiak, and losing Drew Gooden and Larry Hughes. All of this was so impossible to separate out that I designated the post-All-Star team "Cleveland new" as opposed to "Cleveland old." The upshot? The "new" team is playing about 1 1/2 points better than the "old," and ranks #16 vs. #17. A lot of change for a result that's probably within the margin of error, though it's hard to account for all the variables with this team. They still have LeBron, that's what's most important.
20. Atlanta +Bibby 15-17 -2.11
For the most part, teams that made trades saw benefit, even if slight, even if the trade was controversial, those teams rose in the rankings and perhaps improved their playoff slot. But here's one that didn't work out. Atlanta after getting Mike Bibby is almost exactly the same, and still ranked #20.
The problem isn't Bibby, of course, though integrating a player at such an important position can always be difficult. Instead, the magnitude of the trade and how it changed the team is to blame. Atlanta gave up four players for Bibby, which is a lot under any circumstances, especially doing so on February 16th. In the case of the Kidd trade, which was of similar size and nearly the same time, it worked out. But Atlanta isn't Dallas; the remaining talent couldn't do any more than compensate for what they lost.
Conclusions
So there you have it. By this ranking, the Lakers are expected to give Boston a good run for their money. Boston still would have home court advantage, so it probably doesn't forecast a Laker championship. But these results state that L.A. is the odds-on favorite to win the West, and that a Boston championship is by no way a given.
Here is the complete list, with all team permutations included:
# Team record rating
1. LA Lakers +Gasol -Bynum 22-4 10.78
2. Boston +Garnett 57-14 9.81
3. New Orleans +Bonzi 13-7 7.16
4. Dallas +Kidd +JS 11-8 7.14
Boston (-Garnett) 9-2 7.06
5. Detroit +Rip 52-20 6.97
6. Utah +Okur 50-22 6.94
LA Lakers (+Bynum) 24-11 6.60
7. Houston -Yao +TMac 19-8 6.17
8. Phoenix +Shaq 17-11 5.60
Detroit (-Rip) 7-3 5.20
9. San Antonio 56-26 5.13
10. Denver +KMartin 46-25 4.97
Phoenix (+Shawn) 34-13 4.96
11. Toronto +Bosh +TJFord 19-15 4.81
New Orleans (-Bonzi) 43-19 4.75
Dallas (+Kidd,-JS) 5-5 4.75
12. Orlando 52-30 4.54
Utah (-Okur) 4-6 4.43
Houston (+Yao,-TMac) 8-7 4.41
Dallas (-Kidd,+JS) 26-11 4.35
LA Lakers(-Gasol,-Bynum) 11-10 3.70
Toronto (-TJFord) 17-14 3.66
Houston (+Yao,+TMac) 28-12 3.52
Dallas (-JS,-Kidd) 9-7 3.07
Phoenix (-Shaq,-Shawn) 4-3 2.67
13. Golden St 48-34 2.04
14. Washington +Butler 33-25 0.72
15. Philadelphia 40-42 0.28
16. Cleveland new 14-13 0.25
17. Portland 41-41 -0.57
Cleveland (old) 31-24 -1.23
18. Sacramento 38-44 -1.76
19. Indiana 36-46 -1.91
Atlanta (-Bibby) 22-28 -2.03
20. Atlanta +Bibby 15-17 -2.11
Denver (-KMartin) 4-7 -2.69
21. Chicago 33-49 -2.74
Washington (-Butler) 10-14 -4.06
Toronto (-Bosh) 5-12 -4.18
22. Charlotte 32-50 -4.47
23. New Jersey 34-48 -5.04
24. Memphis 22-60 -5.76
25. Minnesota 22-60 -6.31
26. New York 23-59 -6.51
27. LA Clippers 23-59 -6.56
28. Milwaukee 26-56 -6.66
29. Miami 15-67 -8.12
30. Seattle 20-62 -8.23