SportsRatings: College Basketball

College Basketball Invitational final: Tulsa vs. Bradley 3-game series

Just because (and only because) the CBI has an interesting, 3-game, home-and-away series final, I'm doing a preview of the series and its oddsmaking repercussions.

Game #1: Monday, March 31, 8:00pm EDT in Tulsa, OK
Game #2: Wednesday, April 2, 8:00pm EDT in Tulsa, OK
Game #3: Friday, April 4, 8:00pm EDT in Tulsa, OK

 

Team: Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Record: 23-13
Conference: Conference USA

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:   #85
Sagarin Predictor:      #69
Pomeroy Ratings:        #66

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:     #60
Recent Play:            #40
Consistency correction: #88

• Wins vs. NCAA tournament teams(1): Mississippi Valley State

Key Info: The Golden Hurricane are 13-3 since February 9th, losing only to Memphis twice and Alabama-Birgmingham once. Recently they beat UAB in the C-USA tournament, and C-USA member Houston to reach the CBI finals. Their "recent play" rating confirms their improved game.

*****************************************************************************************

 

Team: Bradley Braves
Record: 20-15
Conference: Missouri Valley

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:    #96
Sagarin Predictor:       #94
Pomeroy Ratings:         #82

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:      #73
Recent Play:             #55
Consistency correction:  #98

• Wins vs. NCAA tournament teams(1):  @Drake

Key Info: Bradley, too, has improved since losing six straight earlier in the season. Their post-December number is better, and their recent play value is better still. Filtering out games where starters were injured has a similar effect. But they can't quite catch Tulsa's recent play, since they've had a couple of very poor games (the February losses to Indiana State and Southern Illinois) in the fairly recent past.

*****************************************************************************************

Game Analysis: The best-two-of-three format is interesting, and new for college basketball. Although Bradley improves quite a bit when looking at their season in a variety of ways, so does Tulsa, so I just used the full season statistics. The Golden Hurricane get the deciding game at home, which becomes the determining factor.

% Chance to win

Game location:   at Tulsa   at Bradley       
Tulsa              65%         44%   
Bradley            35%         56%  

Power rating spread

Game location      
at Tulsa        Tulsa   by 5.3           
at Bradley      Bradley by 2.5  

Series Odds

odds of Tulsa winning 2-0:   29%
odds of Bradley winning 2-0: 19%
odds of Tulsa winning 2-1:   34%
odds of Bradley winning 2-1: 18%

Overall Odds to win

Tulsa:   63%
Bradley: 37%

Tulsa is favored in the first game (Vegas odds) by 5 1/2 points, which pretty much matches what my power rating comes up with. Bradley should be favored by 2 1/2 at home. The most interesting odds are for the series. Tulsa has a 29% chance of sweeping, compared to Bradley's 19%. It's slightly more likely than not (52%) that we'll see a three-game series, and overall Tulsa's chances are 63% to win the CBI, just slightly lower than their odds of winning a single game at home.

Bottom line: The tournament series idea is a novelty for college basketball, but one that some have proposed for the NCAA final. I don't think that will happen any time soon. Also, the home-and-away format, while necessary to put fans in the seats, probably will be the deciding factor, since Tulsa is slightly better than Bradley anyway. Expect Tulsa to win the inaugural (and possibly, only) College Basketball Invitational.

Sunday Elite Eight Results - Final score: Kansas 59, Davidson 57

Davidson further proved they belong, leading or staying even with Kansas the whole game but falling short, 59-57. Stephen Curry scored 25 points but the Wildcats couldn't make enough key shots down the stretch, including a last-second shot by Jason Richards that would have given Davidson the win.

Whenever Kansas scored, Davidson responded, playing solid defense and moving the ball well to get Curry into scoring position. Curry had 15 points in the first half but Kansas led 32-30 despite nine turnovers.

The second half was just as close. Kansas tooks a 43-37 lead on an 8-0 run, but Davidson went on a 12-2 run to make it 49-45 Wildcats with 9 minutes left. Bryant Barr hit three 3-pointers in that stretch as the Jayhawk defense ran a box-and-one on Curry. Barr finished with 11.

But Davidson went cold from there, hitting just two more baskets until the one minute mark when Kansas led 59-54. Another Curry three pointer cut the Kansas lead to 59-57. The Jayhawks couldn't convert on their own possession, but played great defense in preventing Curry from taking the shot at the end.

Mario Chalmers and Sasha Kaun led Kansas with 13 apiece and Brandon Rush added 12. Kaun, who hit all six of his shots and had seven rebounds, sparked Kansas with his inside game several times when the Jayhawk offense had stalled.

George Bush Sr. likes Texas cheerleaders

Looks like George Bush Sr. is having a good time at the Texas-Memphis game in Houston.

Who does he remind us of? Oh, yeah:

The lesson?

It's good to be the king.

Sunday Elite Eight results: Final score: Memphis 85, Texas 67

Memphis beat Texas 85-67 in their Elite Eight contest, becoming the 3rd #1 seed to make the Final Four. Chris Douglas-Roberts had 25 points and Derrick Rose 21 to lead the Tigers, who shot 50% from the floor for the game.

The first half was all Memphis, as the Tiger athletes were too much for Texas, who tried to run with them but found themselves committing several uncharacteristic turnovers. Twice Memphis went on 9-0 runs, leading 18-8 and later 29-13, with Douglas-Roberts scoring 11 first half points. After Memphis took their biggest lead of the first half at 39-22, the Longhorns went on a 6-0 run to close the half.

Texas opened the second half by quickly cutting the lead to five, and things looked hopeful for the Longhorns. But once again Memphis went on a run, and just like that they'd added to their halftime margin. As the margin widened and time ran down, Texas didn't commit enough fouls to be in a position to put Memphis on the line to force free throws.

Instead of going for steals aggressively they played the game as if they were a few points down, but Memphis had built a 59-41 lead with 9 minutes left and Texas couldn't make enough 3-pointers to get back into it, let alone stop Memphis on the other end. It was 73-53 with 3 minutes left, and the result was inevitable. Texas started fouling, but Memphis made 30 of 36 foul shots.

D.J. Augustin had 17 and A.J. Abrams 16 for the Longhorns.

 

Elite Eight Final Score: North Carolina 83, Louisville 73

Tyler Hansbrough scrapped, rebounded, scored on jumpers, put-back dunks, and even while falling onto the baseline to lead North Carolina to a tough 83-73 win over Louisville, putting North Carolina in the Final Four.

Hansbrough led all scorers with 28 points and had 13 rebounds as well. He was 12 of 17 shooting playing against Louisville's David Padgett, who ended with just 6 points. Four other Carolina players finished in double figures as well.

The Tar Heels controlled the first half, taking a 12 point lead as Louisville was plagued with turnovers. North Carolina ran the court every possession and got several quick baskets underneath.

In the second half, Louisville chipped away at the lead with good defensive pressure, and by the halfway mark had tied the score at 59. It was 68-64 Carolina when Ty Lawson hit a key 3-pointer to give the Tar Heels some breathing room; they pulled away on two Hansbrough jumpers and the Cardinals couldn't challenge from there.

Video: Kevin Love makes half-court, 3/4-court, and full court shots

Before (and again during) the Xavier game, the announcers showed a clip of Kevin Love making shots from half court, 3/4 court, and full court in practice.

Interestingly, he has pretty much the same form wherever he's shooting from.

Elite Eight Final Score: UCLA 76, Xavier 57

UCLA dominted Xavier en route to their third straight Final Four appearance, reminiscent of the John Wooden era.

Kevin Love and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute both had double doubles for the Bruins, who never trailed, starting with Russell Westbrook's dunk that made it 2-0. Love and Darren Collison had 19 points for UCLA.

The 1-seed Bruins held a 33-24 halftime lead over the 3-seed Musketeers before opening a 20 point lead five minutes into the 2nd half on Kevin Love's 3-pointer. UCLA shot 54% for the game including 47% from 3-point range.

Xavier tried to come back with intensity but their shots weren't falling—they made only 36% of their attempts. Derrick Brown led the Musketeers with 13 points.

Here's a video of Kevin Love attempting free throws, with the same screaming Xavier fan that plagued West Virginia prominently featured (moreso on the first attempt).

NCAA Elite 8 - Sunday Previews: analysis, odds, & prediction: Kansas vs. Davidson

Game Time: Sunday, March 30, 5:05 pm EDT in Detroit, MI (Midwest Regional)

 

Team: Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 34-3
Conference: Big 12

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:   1
Sagarin Predictor:      1
Pomeroy Ratings:        1

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:     1
Most recent play:       3
Consistency correction: 1 

• Wins vs. tournament teams(11):  Arizona, Baylor, Kansas State, USC, Oklahoma, @TexasA&M, TexasA&M, Texas, Portland State, UNLV, =Villanova
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(7):  Kansas State, Oklahoma, @TexasA&M, TexasA&M, Texas, UNLV, =Villanova
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(2):  Texas, =Villanova
• Wins vs. Elite Eight teams(1):  Texas
• Losses to tournament teams(2): @Kansas State, @Texas
• Other losses(1): @Oklahoma State

Key Info: Kansas had a fairly easy schedule during the season, really, in terms of top 25 teams played, and their tournament experience has matched that so far. They've beaten a 16-seed, an 8-seed, and a 12-seed. Now they take on a 10-seed. Davidson's actually living up to its Elite Eight status, however, having beaten a 2-seed and a 3-seed themselves.

*****************************************************************************************

Team: Davidson Wildcats
Seed: 10
Record: 29-6
Conference: Southern

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:   20
Sagarin Ratings:        16
Pomeroy Ratings:        20

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:     14
Most recent play:        5
Consistency correction: 17

• Wins vs. tournament teams(4): @Winthrop, Gonzaga, =Georgetown, =Wisconsin
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(2): =Georgetown, =Wisconsin
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(1): =Wisconsin
• Wins vs. Elite Eight teams(0): none
• Losses to tournament teams(3): North Carolina, Duke, @UCLA
  
• Other losses(3): @Western Michigan, @Charlotte, @North Carolina State 

Key Info: Gaining confidence much? Davidson has proven it can play with the big boys and actually win, unlike the early part of the season where they could keep up until the end. Their next opponent is arguably the best team in the country, and if they win they'll face another team that is arguably the best in the country. Win that one, and the Wildcats themselves would arguably be the best.

*****************************************************************************************

Game Analysis: I picked both these teams to lose on Friday; clearly I picked the wrong Wildcat team in the upset, and Davidson rather than Villanova advanced. Which is how it should be; Villanova didn't really beat a top opponent to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Regardless, Kansas will be a heavy favorite to reach the Final Four.

% Chance to win

Rated games:    full yr     recent
Kansas            79%        58%
Davidson          21%        42%

Power rating spread

Rated games:    full yr     recent
Kansas      by   10.1        3.5

The "recent" stat, where Davidson's last 13 and Kansas' last 17 games are used, gives a pretty close result, as Kansas is 3rd and Davidson 5th by this measure. But if you start counting after Kansas' last loss, the Jayhawks are #1 again and the spread goes back up to 8, which is about what I expect the Vegas line to be (anywhere from 8 to 12).

Bottom line: I'm pretty much through picking big upsets on a whim at this point. Davidson winning now would be a lot like George Mason beating UConn to make the Final Four back in '06, but Kansas looks almost as loaded as Florida did that year. I'll take the Jayhawks in this one.

NCAA Elite 8 - Sunday Previews: analysis, odds, & prediction: Memphis vs. Texas

Game Time: Sunday, March 30, 2:20pm EDT in Houston, TX (South Regional)

Team: Memphis Tigers
Seed: 1
Record: 36-1
Conference: Conference USA

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:    3
Sagarin Predictor:       3
Pomeroy Ratings:         3

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:      2
Most recent play:       12
Consistency correction:  2

• Wins vs. tournament teams(11): Arizona, Austin Peay, =Connecticut, Georgetown, Gonzaga, =Oklahoma, =USC, Siena, =Texas-Arlington, =Miss. State, =Michigan State
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams (5): Georgetown, =Oklahoma, Siena, =Miss.State, =Michigan State
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (1): =Michigan State
• Wins vs. Elite Eight teams (0): none
• Losses to tournament teams(1): Tennessee
  
• Other losses(0): none  

Key Info: Memphis shot well from the line against Michigan State, as if just to prove to people what the word 'average' means. They also upped their "recent play" ranking from 16 to 12 just like that with the runaway win, playing one of their best games of the season. They'll need that again against Texas, who also played a great game and is ahead of them in recent play. Other than that stat, Memphis is ranked better across the board.

*****************************************************************************************

 

Team: Texas Longhorns
Seed: 2
Record: 31-6
Conference: Big 12

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:    10
Sagarin Ratings:         11
Pomeroy Ratings:          7

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:       9
Most recent play:         7
Consistency correction:   8 

• Wins vs. tournament teams(15): Baylor, @Baylor, @Kansas State, Kansas, @Oklahoma, =Oklahoma, Oklahoma, Oral Roberts, St. Mary's, =Tennessee, Texas A&M, @UCLA, =Austin Peay, =Miami, Stanford
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(10): @Kansas State, Kansas, @Oklahoma, =Oklahoma, Oklahoma, =Tennessee, Texas A&M, @UCLA, =Miami, Stanford
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(4): Kansas, =Tennessee, @UCLA, Stanford
• Wins vs. Elite Eight teams(2): Kansas, @UCLA
• Losses to tournament teams(4): @Kansas, @Michigan State, @Texas A&M, Wisconsin
• Other losses(2): @Missouri, @Texas Tech
  

Key Info: Texas is the only Elite Eight team to have beaten two other Elite Eight squads. Another team they beat, Tennessee, lost in the Sweet Sixteen, as did two teams they lost to, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Add in the loss to Kansas and they played seven games against Sweet Sixteen or better opponents. It's that kind of schedule that prepares a team to face Memphis.

*****************************************************************************************

Game Analysis: Lest too much be made of the Michigan State transitive comparison (Memphis won by 18, Texas lost by 6), remember two things: 1) Michigan State is far better at home (where they beat Texas) than on a neutral court. Texas probably would have done exactly the same thing Memphis did, or worse, playing the Spartans in Houston; and 2) Tennessee offers a counter-example: Texas beat them by 19 on a neutral court while Memphis lost to the Volunteers at home.

The actual important points (and counterpoints) for this game, as I see them, are: Memphis is a better team, but Texas plays extra-well against good teams; Texas is playing better than Memphis over the last several weeks, but the Tigers seem to be getting stronger as their goal approaches; the Longhorns are practically playing on a home court, but Memphis is undefeated on the road.

% Chance to win

rated games:   full yr  +home court      recent  +home court
Memphis          63%        50.3 %         42%       33%
Texas            37%        49.7 %         58%       67%

Power rating spread

rating params:  full yr  +home court      recent  +home court
Memphis      by  4.1         0.2           
Texas        by                            1.1       5.0   

Since recent play and home court are potentially in play, I include four sets of numbers. Take your pick as to which you think apply the most. The Vegas line hasn't been set yet, but Memphis will probably be a slim favorite (1-3 points) as Texas will be granted a partial home court advantage.

Bottom line: This is the only 1-seed vs. 2-seed game in the Elite Eight. I'm sticking with my assertion that Texas plays up to anyone, and with the location advantage, I say they take it. But whoever wins will be a worthy Final Four representative.

Sweet 16 results & video- Friday final scores: all runaways as Davidson beats Wisconsin; Kansas, Memphis, Texas roll

Friday, March 28 scores

(10) Davidson           56 
(3)  Wisconsin          73 Final

Stephen Curry scored 30+ points yet again, finishing with 33 and carrying the Wildcats to a 73-56 rout of the Badgers in Detroit. The score was tied at 36 at the half, but Curry outscored Wisconsin 22-20 in the second half, and the rest of the team did enough to pull off their third straight upset and reach the Elite Eight. Mike Flowers led the Badgers with 12.

(2)  Texas             82
(3)  Stanford          62 Final

Texas used their guard play to offset Stanford's huge inside advantage to beat the Cardinal 82-62, using 300 lb. reserve Dexter Pittman to clog the middle in the second half. The Longhorns shot well in the first period and led 43-34, despite the Lopez brothers scoring with ease in the interior; they had 19 point together at the break. Stanford cut the lead to one point at 52-51 before Texas went on a 20-3 run keyed by D.J. Augustin, who had 23 points, and Damion James, who finished with 18. Brook Lopez had 26 for the Cardinal.

(1)  Kansas            68
(12) Villanova         47 Final

The Jayhawks quickly turned back any upset attempt by the Wildcats, hitting 7 3-pointers and leading 41-22 at the break. They used balanced scoring to complete the 21-point win, led by Brandon Rush's 16, Russell Robinson's 15, and Mario Chalmers' 14. Scottie Reynolds' 11 led Villanova, who shot just 18% from the 3-point line compared to the Jayhawks' 42%.

(1) Memphis            92    
(5) Michigan State     74 Final

Memphis demolished Michigan State, going on a 15-0 run to close the first half leading 50-20 and coasting to victory. Free throws weren't important but Memphis shot 74% just for good measure, including an 11 for 12 performance by Chris Douglas-Roberts, who had 25 for the Tigers. Derrick Rose led all scorers with 27, while Goran Suton had 23 and Chris Allen 20 for Michigan State. Drew Neitzel had 6 points in his last college game.

 

NCAA Elite 8 - Saturday Previews: analysis, odds, & prediction: North Carolina vs. Louisville

Game Time: Saturday, March 29, 9:05pm EDT in Charlotte, NC (East Regional)

 

Team: North Carolina Tar Heels
Seed: 1
Record: 35-2
Conference: ACC

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:   2
Sagarin Predictor:      2
Pomeroy Ratings:        4

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:     3
Most recent play:       1
Consistency correction: 2

• Wins vs. tournament teams(12): =BYU, @Clemson, =Clemson, Clemson, @Davidson, @Duke, Kent State, @Kentucky, @Miami, Mount St. Mary's, Arkansas, Washington State
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(5): @Davidson, @Duke, @Miami, Arkansas, Washington State
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(2): @Davidson, Washington State
• Wins vs. Elite Eight teams(1 ): @Davidson
• Losses to tournament teams(1): Duke
  
• Other losses(1): Maryland
  

Key Info: Three tournament games, three blowouts. UNC has won their games by 39, 31, and 21 points. Their defensive performance against Washington State was more than solid. The only thing that can stop them is running into a team that's playing as well as they are.

*****************************************************************************************

 

Team: Louisville Cardinals
Seed: 3
Record: 27-8
Conference: Big East

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:    7
Sagarin Predictor:       6
Pomeroy Ratings:         6

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:      4
Most recent play:        2
Consistency correction:  8

• Wins vs. tournament teams(12):  Georgetown, @Kentucky, @UNLV, West Virginia, Marquette, @Marquette, @Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, Boise State, =Oklahoma, = Tennessee
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(10):  Georgetown, @UNLV, West Virginia, Marquette, @Marquette, @Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, =Oklahoma, = Tennessee
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(3):  West Virginia, Villanova, = Tennessee
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(0):  none
• Losses to tournament teams(5): =BYU, @UConn, @Georgetown, =Purdue, =Pittsburgh
• Other losses(3): Dayton, Cincinnati, @Seton Hall
  

Key Info: The Cardinals are probably the only team that can beat North Carolina right now. #2 in recent play to UNC's #1, Louisville's tournament play has been almost as impressive, their last two games possibly better.

*****************************************************************************************

Game Analysis: This is the most important game in the tournament so far, and perhaps will be in retrospect the 2nd most significant save the title game. These are the two best teams in the country right now, and the winner ought to be the favorite to win it all. This should be a great one, worth it just for the Hansbrough vs. Padgett big-man matchup. But mostly to see college basketball played at its finest. The only unfortunate thing is, once again, it won't be a totally neutral court—UNC is 24-1 playing post-season in the state of North Carolina, their last loss in 1979.

% Chance to win

Rating Period:   full yr     recent       recent,neutral ct
North Carolina    72%         67%             52%
Louisville        28%         33%             48%

Power rating spread

Rating Period:   full yr     recent       recent,neutral ct
North Carolina by 8.5         5.4             1.5

I'm assigning full home court advantage for the first two calculations, which makes a big difference. WIthout it, and using recent performance, UNC is a 52% favorite at a 1.5 point spread.  Louisville is close enough that the crowd won't be all Tar Heel fans, so at most a partial home court advantage should be figured in. Regardless, North Carolina is at a minimum a slight favorite. The Vegas line, which I had expected to be around 2 or 3 points, stands at UNC by 5 1/2, which is similar to the recent performance including home court advantage calculation.

Bottom line: These two teams are truly peaking at this juncture; this might be the real national championship game. It's too bad it's not on a true neutral court, because if UNC prevails, say in overtime, then goes on to win it all, the Cardinals will always wonder "what if?" and they'd have a good argument.

NCAA Elite 8 - Saturday Previews: analysis, odds, & prediction: UCLA vs. Xavier

Game Time: Saturday, March 29, 6:40pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ (West Regional)

 

Team: UCLA Bruins
Seed: 1
Record: 34-3
Conference: Pac-10

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:   5
Sagarin Predictor:      4
Pomeroy Ratings:        2

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:     5
Most recent play:       9
Consistency correction: 4

• Wins vs. tournament teams(17):  @Arizona, Arizona, =Davidson, =Michigan State, Oregon, @Oregon, Portland State, Stanford, Stanford, @Stanford, Washington State, @Washington State, @USC, =USC, Mississippi Valley State, Texas A&M, =W Kentucky
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(9):  =Davidson, =Michigan State, Stanford, Stanford, @Stanford, Washington State, @Washington State, Texas A&M, =W Kentucky
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(8):  =Davidson, =Michigan State, Stanford, Stanford, @Stanford, Washington State, @Washington State, =W Kentucky
• Wins vs. Elite Eight teams(0):  none 
• Losses to tournament teams(2): Texas, USC
  
• Other losses(1): @Washington 

Key Info: They didn't need help from the refs last time out, but UCLA almost got lazy with the game in hand against Western Kentucky. Xavier won't be as forgiving. The Bruins aren't exactly taking their game to the next level lately; neither is Xavier, but like UCLA they're winning the close games. Interesting note: Fully half of UCLA's 34 wins are over teams that made the tournament.

*****************************************************************************************

 

Team: Xavier Musketeers
Seed: 3
Record: 30-6
Conference: Atlantic 10

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:   12
Sagarin Predictor:       9
Pomeroy Ratings:        15

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:     15
Most recent play:       22
Consistency correction: 16

• Wins vs. tournament teams(9): Belmont, Coppin State, =Indiana, Kansas State, =Kent State, St. Joseph's, =Georgia, =Purdue, =W Virginia
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(3): Kansas State, =Purdue, =W Virginia
• Wins vs. Sweet 16 teams(1): =W Virginia
• Wins vs. Elite Eight teams (0): none
• Losses to tournament teams(4): @St. Joseph's, =St. Joseph's, @Temple, Tennessee
  
• Other losses(2): @MiamiOH, @Arizona State

Key Info: Xavier is playing just well enough to beat the next opponent, and each game has been closer than the last. They may have the mental edge over UCLA, since they weren't expected to be here, and are probably hungrier to reach the Final Four, as UCLA has made it the last two years.

*****************************************************************************************

Game Analysis: How much momentum do the Mustketeers have coming off their overtime win? And how much of a "hunger" edge do they have over the Bruins, who are taking for granted that a Final Four slot has been reserved for them? I don't know, but it's probably not enough to give Xavier the win, only likely to make the game closer than it otherwise would have been. But already the media is talking about UCLA's 3-year Final Four streak, and if that's the attitude the players have, Xavier has a good chance of stopping them.

% Chance to win

rating period:  full yr    recent
UCLA             62%        65%
Xavier           38%        35%

Power rating point spread

rating period:  full yr    recent
UCLA       by    3.5        4.2

The Vegas line favors UCLA by 6, which seems slightly high. Both teams are playing very well, but neither is doing anything astonishing to suggest it should dominate this game.

Bottom line: UCLA is a better team and has even had luck (and the refs) on its side. If this were an NBA style best of seven they'd be the prohibitive favorite, even with such a small difference in quality. But in a single elimination, hunger might be the difference, and more and more I'm thinking Xavier will get the win and the Final Four berth.

Sweet 16 results & video- thursday final scores: Xavier in overtime, Louisville beats Tennessee, North Carolina dominates, UCLA escapes

Thursday, March 27 scores

(3) Louisville         79
(2) Tennessee          60 Final

A minor upset, as the line had the Cardinals as slight favorites, but it's still a 3 seed beating a 2 seed. Louisville built a 24-8 lead, but Tennessee turned up the intensity and was down only 37-30 at the break. The 2nd half was tight for about the first 10 minutes, after which Louisville slowly pulled away, and the Volunteers couldn't muster a run at the end.

Earl Clark had 17 points and 12 rebounds for Louisville, who had five players in double figures. Chris Lofton led Tennessee with 15 but shot only 3 of 15 from the floor, including 2 of 11 on 3-pointers.

(1)  UCLA             88
(12) W. Kentucky      78 Final

UCLA took charge in the first half and led by 21 at the half. But the Hilltoppers didn't give up, and cut the lead to 4 in the final minutes before UCLA put them away. Kevin Love had 29 points for the Bruins while Tyron Brazelton had 31 for Western Kentucky, who scored only 20 points in the first half but 58 in the second.

(1) North Carolina    68
(4) Washington St.    47 Final

A dominant win for the Tar Heels. Hansbrough started slow but led with 18. Washington State went 2 of 16 from 3-pt range. North Carolina's defense was impressive throughout and they began to pull away with 5 minutes left in the first half.

(3) Xavier            79    
(7) West Virginia     75 Final

Xavier started the game hot, leading 28-10. WVU battled back, with Joe Alexander tying the game in regulation but missing a free throw that may have won it. Alexander fouled out early in overtime, and B. J. Raymond hit a key 3-pointer for Xavier off an inbounds play. Josh Duncan had 26 points for the Musketeers, who hit 11 of 19 threes (58%) compared to West Virginia's 1 of 10.

The game video below features Alexander's tying shot and free throw miss. Listen for the screaming girl that seemed to affect the Mountaineer performance from the charity stripe several times.

The second video shows Raymond winning the game for Xavier.

 

SportsRatings Top 25 week 20 - up to Sweet 16

Through the 1st two rounds of the tournament, here is my belated top 25. The top 25 becomes less important during the tournament—the national polls don't even update in these weeks—but I like to stay consistent. A few of my rules/guidelines change: every Sweet Sixteen team should make the top 25, and my old guidelines about head-to-head results are altered to be more forgiving to teams that have advanced farther in the tournament.

The top six teams all advanced to the 3rd round; in the top 10, only Duke and Georgetown lost. Both had great seasons and fall just outside the top ten, and might re-enter the top ten when all is said and done. Xavier and Davidson move into the top ten after reaching the 3rd round of the tournament; others moving up are Michigan State and Louisville, while Stanford, Western Kentucky, and Washington State enter (or re-enter, as the case may be) the rankings in the top 16.

Purdue, Drake, Butler, and Notre Dame stay in the top 20, despite losing in the tournament, due to overall good seasons and/or reaching the 2nd round.

The SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 for Week 20 (games through 3/23/2008)

lw    #  Team           rec  losses; wins vs. top 25
1     1. Memphis        35-1 L Tennessee-4
                             W Gtown+14,Gonzaga+8,=UConn+11
2     2. N. Carolina    34-2 L Maryland-2,Duke-11
                             W@Duke+8,KentSt+29,@David+4,=BYU+10
3     3. UCLA           33-3 L@Wash-10,USC-9,Texas-2
                             W=MSU+5,Dav+12,@Stan+9,StanOT,=Stan+1,WSU+7,@WSU-8
4     4. Wisconsin      31-4 L Marq-5,@Purdue-4,Purdue-5,@Duke-24
                             W@Tex+1,Ind+13,@Ind+2,MichSt+15,=MichSt+2
5     5. Tennessee      31-4 L@Kentucky-6,=Ark-1,@Vandy-3,=Texas-19
                             W@Mem+4,@Xav+7,ButOT,=WVA+2,=WKY+6,@Gonz+10,Van+20
6     6. Kansas         33-3 L@OkSt-1,@KansasSt-9,@Texas-3
                             W=Texas+10,UNLV+19
8     7. Texas          30-6 L@MO-13,@TTech-3,@TexAM-17,@MSU-6,Wis-1,=KU-10
                             W=Tenn+19,@UCLA+2,Kansas+3,St.Mary's+19
12    8. Xavier         29-6 L@MiaOH-2,@Temp-19,@StJoe-5,=StJoe-8,@ASU-22,Tenn-7
                             W=Ind+15,=KentSt+13,=Purdue+7
25t   9. Davidson       28-6 L@NCst-1,@WMich-7,@Charl-7,@UCLA-12,UNC-4,Duke-6
                             W=Georgetown+4,=Gonz+6
16   10. Michigan St.   27-8 L@IA-7,@PSU-9,@OSU-9,@IN-19,@Pur-6,@WI-15,=WI-2,=UCLA-5
                             W Texas+6,Indiana+29,Purdue+3,BYU+7
7    11. Duke           27-6 L=PittOT,@Miami-1,@WakeF-13,=Clem-4,=WVA-6,UNC-8
                             W Wisc+24,@UNC+11,@David+6,Corn+14
9    12. Georgetown     27-6 L@Syr-7,@Pitt-9,=Pitt-9,=David-4,@Lou-8,@Memp-14
                             W ND+19,Lou+3,@WVA+1,=WVA+17,Vil+2,=Vil+19,Con+3
24   13. Louisville     26-8 L Cin-1,@Set-10,Day-5,=PittOT,=BYU-2,@Conn-2,=Pur-8,@Gt-3
                             W Gtown+8,NotreDame+5,UNLV+20,WVA+9,Vill+14
     14. Stanford       28-7 L@Sien-12,@Ore-5,@ASUot,@USC-13,UCLA-9,@UCLAot,=UCLA-3
                             W@WSUot,WSU+7,=WSU-7,=Cornell
     15. W. Kentucky    29-6 L@NAz-3,@sIL-10,@soAL-4,soAL-5,=Gonz-3,=Tenn-6
                             W=DrakeOT
     16. Washington St. 26-8 L@Az-12,Az-10,Cal-5,StanOT,@Stan-7,=Stan-7,@UCLA-7,UCLA-8
                             W=NotreDame+2,Gonzaga+4
15   17. Purdue         24-8 L@ISU-3,=IllOT,Wof-3,@MO-10,@OSUot,@Clem-3,@MSU-3,@IN-9
                             W@Wisc+5,Wisc+4,MichSt+6,Louisville+8
10   18. Drake          28-5 L@MizzSt-3,@SoIll-3,Brad-1,@St.Mary's-6,=WKYot
                             W@Butler+7
11   19. Butler         29-4 L@WrightSt-1,@CleveSt-4,Drake-7,=TennOT
                            
20   20. Notre Dame     24-8 L=GT-1,@Mar-26,=Mar-10,=Bay-4,@Con-6,@Lou-5,@Gt-19,=WSU-20
                             W WVA+13,@Vill+10,UConn+6
     21. West Virginia  26-10L [4] + =TN-2,@ND-13,@Lou-9,GTo-1,@Vil-22,=Gto-17
                             W=Duke+6,=Conn+6
     22. Villanova      22-12L [8 losses] + ND-10,@Gt-2,@Lou-14,=Gt-19
                             W WVa+22,Conn+2
13   23. Indiana        25-8 L@PSUot,=Min-1,=Ark-14,Con-5,@MSU-29,=Xav-15,@Wis-13,Wis-2
                             W MichSt+19,Purdue+9
21   24. UNLV           26-8 L@UCSB-3,@AF-12,@Utah-8,Az-3,@NM-14,@BYU-26,Lou-20,@KU-19
                             W=KentSt+13,BYU+29,BYU+15
14   25. Kent State     28-7 L@Det-1,@Tol-3,@BoGr-6,@Ohio-12,=UNLV-13,=Xav-13,@UNC-29
                             W@StMarys+8

out:

17       St. Mary's     25-7 L@SD-8,@SDot,@SoILL-15,=Mia-14,@Gonz-12,KentSt-8,@Tex-19
                             W Drake+6,GonzagaOT
18       Gonzaga        25-8 L=TT-10,@SD-7,@OK-4,@StMot,WSU-4,=David-6,Tenn-10,@Mem-8
                             W =WKY+3,StMarys+12,@UConn+3
23       Connecticut    24-9 L Prv x2 ,=sdOT,Gon-3,@Vil-2,=WVA-6,@ND-6,@Gt-3,=Mem-11
                             W ND+6,@Ind+5,Lou+2,WVA+8
22       BYU            27-8 L [4] + @UNLV-29,=UNLV-15,=UNC-10,MSU-7
                             W=Louisville+2,UNLV+26
19       Vanderbilt     26-8 L@AlOT,@KyOT,@FLA-22,@Mis-16,@Ark-5,=Ark-6,=Sie-21,@TN-20
                             W Tenn+3
25t      Cornell        22-6 L@Buck-13,Colg-3,@Ohio-13,@Syr-16,Stan-24,@Duke-14
 
 
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week

Indiana, UNLV and Kent State round out the top 25; the Hoosiers lost in the first round but were great until the last few weeks after coach Kelvin Sampson had to leave. UNLV beat Kent State in the first round, while Kent State beat St. Mary's, the last team booted out of the rankings.

St. Mary's and Gonzaga both lost first round games and are essentially tied as far as their seasons go, while Gonzaga holds a win over Connecticut, an impressive team that nevertheless also lost in the first round. BYU's first round loss knocks them out and negates their head-to-head advantage over Louisville; Vanderbilt lost to seven non-top-25 teams of its eight losses; and Cornell had no good wins to speak of.

The teams in the top 25 are more or less set. West Virginia and Villanova may fall out if they don't make the final eight, which would place St. Mary's and Gonzaga back in. Other than that, it's just a matter of reshuffling, and seeing who wins it all.

NCAA Sweet 16 Friday Preview - analysis, odds, & prediction: Memphis vs. Michigan State

Game Time: Friday, March 28, 10pm eastern in Houston, TX (South Regional)

Team: Memphis Tigers
Seed: 1
Record: 35-1
Conference: Conference USA

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:   3
Sagarin Predictor:      4
Pomeroy Ratings:        4

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:     2
Most recent play:       16
Consistency correction: 3

• Wins vs. tournament teams(10): Arizona, Austin Peay, =Connecticut, Georgetown, Gonzaga, =Oklahoma, =USC, Siena, =Texas-Arlington, =Miss. State
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams (4): Georgetown, =Oklahoma, Siena, =Miss.State
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams (0): none.
• Losses to tournament teams(1): Tennessee
  
• Other losses(0): None  

Key Info: Memphis is the #1 seed that many consider to be the most vulnerable this round. Like UCLA, they had a close game in the Round of 32. And like North Carolina, they face a high-seed opponent. Add in their free-throw shooting woes, and any close game becomes a true nail-biter. You can see their drop-off in performance; their recent play ranks only 16th as the majority of their strong games were in December and January.

*****************************************************************************************

 

Team: Michigan State Spartans
Seed: 5
Record: 27-8
Conference: Big Ten

Power Ratings (rank - all teams)

SportsRatings Points:   17
Sagarin Predictor:      16
Pomeroy Ratings:        13

Power Rating Special Analyses

2nd half of season:     20
Most recent play:       17
Consistency correction: 12

• Wins vs. tournament teams(6): @BYU, Indiana, Texas, Purdue, Temple, =Pittsburgh
• Wins vs. Round of 32 teams(3): Texas, Purdue, =Pittsburgh
• Wins vs. Sweet Sixteen teams(1): Texas
• Losses to tournament teams(5): @Indiana, =UCLA, @Purdue, @Wisconsin, =Wisconsin
  
• Other losses(3): @Iowa, @Penn State,  @Ohio State
  

Key Info: Michigan State raised their game again to be Pitt last weekend, and seem to be recapturing the level of play they reached in December during their 14-1 start. They beat Texas that month and a win over Memphis might put them in a rematch, this time in Texas. Their neutral-court play has been good, putting to rest any thoughts that their road woes might translate into poor neutral court performance.

*****************************************************************************************

Game Analysis: If only MSU could be playing where the other regionals play, in Detroit. That would be close enough to home to put the Spartans in home teams mode, where they've been unbeatable. They beat Texas in a close-to-home setting, so a Final Four trip would be likely in that scenario. But that's not the case. Memphis is looking vulnerable but still has won 35 of 36. Overall they're solid favorites, but using recent performance it's too close to call.

% Chance to win

rating period:     Full season      Recent
Memphis                67%           50.4 %
Michigan St.           33%           49.6 %

Power rating point spread

rating period:     Full season      Recent
Memphis        by      5.5            0.4

Though Ken Pomeroy's stats (Memphis 69%) validate my game-comparison estimate, and the Vegas point spread of 5 almost mirrors mine, I'm inclined to believe the "recent" set of numbers. This game should be close. The problem, then, is having confidence that Memphis can win the close game. It seems that the closer the game gets, the more it favors Michigan State due to the Tigers' rock-bottom free throw percentage.

Bottom line: It's becoming all the rage to pick the Spartans in the upset, and I don't doubt it could happen for a second. But I'm going completely against the grain, saying the Tigers win a tight game by making their free throws. After all, they have to shoot above their average once in a while, right?