SportsRatings: College Basketball

Weekend Preview - Key College games, March 1-2

Saturdary March 1st

#9 Georgetown (23-4) at Marquette (21-6) - Marquette is on quite a winning streak in the Big East at 11-5. They're still behind 11-4 Connecticut, 11-4 Notre Dame, 13-3 Louisville, and the Hoyas, who are tied at the top with the Cardinals. NCAA seed-wise, their six losses puts them even with UConn, Notre Dame, and Louisville, but they've lost twice to Louisville, once to UConn, and split with Notre Dame. A win over Georgetown would help a lot down the home stretch, as well as further convolute the top 25.

#22 Washington State (22-6) at #16 Stanford (23-4) - Though 22-6 overall, the Huskies are in danger of falling out of 3rd place in the Pac-10 since all six of those losses were in conference play. Their only impressive win was a non-conference road defeat of Gonzaga. Stanford, too, needs to pad their résumé; their only solid win was over Washington State in overtime. The Cardinal should be able to handle the Huskies at home, and need a win to keep alive their conference hopes.

#15 St. Mary's (24-4) at #23 Gonzaga (22-6) - Like Stanford/Washington State, this one went into overtime in the last matchup. But the Gaels were at home for that win; now they're on the road and logic would suggest the Zags have the upper hand. Both are 11-1 in the West Coast Conference, and while both teams ought to make the NCAA tournament, there's no guarantee unless they win the conference tournament, making this game all the more crucial.

Sunday March 2nd

#10 Indiana (24-4) at #13 Michigan State (22-6) - Michigan State's been getting a bad rap recently. They deserve some of it—losing at Iowa and Penn State can't be defended—but they're still a really good home team, undefeated at the Breslin Center. It's there that they beat Texas, Purdue, and BYU among others. The truth is they're a poor road team, and they showed it Thursday at Wisconsin and previously at Indiana where they lost by 19. But there's no reason they can't keep this game close. In fact, they should be favored slightly, and a win could re-energize them. But if they lose, their confidence might be lost as well, and they'll have trouble winning at Ohio State and Illinois to close the season. Indiana, on the other hand, has smooth sailing ahead if they can get this one, but their play has been shaky since the coaching change.

Power Ratings: Memphis falls to fourth after loss

Tennesse grabbed the #1 spot in the overall power rating after beating Memphis, and held onto it despite losing to Vanderbilt. The Tigers fell to fourth overall after having their undefeated record spoiled.

The Win/Loss ratings for games through 2/28:
 
#   Team                      rec      Rating   Last week
1.  Tennessee                 25-3     43.27     32.98 (4)
2.  Texas                     24-4     38.89     33.89 (3)
3.  Duke                      24-3     38.87     35.47 (2)
4.  Memphis                   27-1     31.37     51.18 (1)
5.  UCLA                      25-3     29.02     27.48 (5)
6.  North Carolina            26-2     26.73     24.16 (7)
7.  Wisconsin                 24-4     25.36     20.94 (8)
8.  Kansas                    25-3     23.05     25.65 (6)
9.  Vanderbilt                24-4     19.81     12.00 (21)
10. Xavier                    24-4     18.58     16.50 (11)

Tennessee got such a boost from beating Memphis on the road that even losing to Vanderbilt didn't keep them off the top spot. The Commodores, however, earned quite a few points and jumped into the top 10.

Overall, the top four teams inverted themselves from last week, as Texas slipped past Duke by a hair and Memphis fell to fourth. Kansas' loss dumped them to #8, while Xavier moved into the top 10 past Stanford.

Points-only power rating through 2/28:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   W/L rank
1.  Kansas                    25-3     25.00       8
2.  Duke                      24-3     23.68       3
3.  North Carolina            26-2     22.91       6
4.  UCLA                      25-3     22.87       5
5.  Memphis                   27-1     22.44       4
6.  Tennessee                 25-3     20.17       1
7.  Wisconsin                 24-4     19.61       7
8.  Xavier                    24-4     19.33       10
9.  Marquette                 21-6     19.21       14
10. Georgetown                23-4     18.66       13

Kansas still holds a fairly big lead in the points-only algorithm; there's a growing disconnect between their rating here and in the Win/Loss rating, where their relatively soft schedule and few quality wins are hurting them.

Marquette has been playing well and winning, and they rate even higher than their record and résumé would imply. So, to and extent, does Georgetown, although with only four losses the Hoyas don't look out of place at all in the top ten.

Combined Win/Loss + Points rating through 2/28:

lw  #  Team                      rec      Rating   AP rank
3   1. Tennessee                 25-3     63.45      1
2   2. Duke                      24-3     62.56      7
4   3. Texas                     24-4     57.39      5
1   4. Memphis                   27-1     53.82      2
6   5. UCLA                      25-3     51.90      4
7   6. North Carolina            26-2     49.64      3
5   7. Kansas                    25-3     48.05      6
8   8. Wisconsin                 24-4     44.98     10
9   9. Xavier                    24-4     37.92      9
12 10. Marquette                 21-6     35.73     21
11 11. Georgetown                23-4     35.33     11
16 12. Louisville                23-6     34.89     13
10 13. Stanford                  23-4     34.65      8
-- 14. Vanderbilt                24-4     31.39     18
24 15. Drake                     24-4     30.65     20
13 16. Michigan St.              22-6     30.64     19
19 17. Indiana                   24-4     30.43     12
17 18. Connecticut               22-6     29.31     15
22 19. Purdue                    22-6     29.21     16
15 20. Washington St.            22-6     29.04     22
18 21. Notre Dame                21-6     28.77     17
14 22. Butler                    26-3     26.41     14
25 23. Texas A&M                 21-7     25.98     --
20 24. Pittsburgh                20-8     25.74     --
-- 25. Clemson                   20-7     24.81     --

Some interesting movement in the overall power rating since last Thursday. Naturally Tennessee takes over the top spot, though I'm sure the AP will drop them for their loss. The AP rankings are from Monday and don't reflect this week's action.

Vanderbilt was only 28th last week; the Tennessee game really added to their score. Clemson also advances because of their win over Miami.

Drake performed similarly to Tennessee: a big win Saturday, then a loss this week. But like the Volunteers, the big win adds more points than the loss takes away and the Bulldogs jump nine spots.

Arizona fan CAUGHT on camera throwing water bottle at Tim Floyd, USC bench

The Arizona Wildcats lost again at home last night to USC, and fans are getting disgruntled. Some a little more than others; one apparently thought it would be cool to throw a full water bottle at the USC bench, narrowly missing Tim Floyd. Just as stupid as his actions is that he didn't think there'd be a camera—in a televised game—that might catch him in the act.

In the pic above you can see him, arm cocked and starting the throwing motion. Just to the right of the backboard.

The announcers even circled him for easy identification. If you're going to throw things at a game, don't be standing right next to a guy with a huge fake 'fro.

Arizona iCoach Kevin O'Neill took the mike and like Mott the Hoople told the crowd to "bring him down here" so he could kick the kid's ass. No, actually he angrily chastized the action and apologized to Tim Floyd and the USC team.

This comes after fans antics—particularly concerning the student section—have come under fire. A Sports Illustrated article sums up recent problems: Kevin Love getting death threats before the Oregon game, Eric Gordon's family being pelted with ice at Illinois, and extreme taunting of various other players and teams.

The right way to taunt an opposing player: dress up as a mouse.

Additionally, the non-overused tradition of fans rushing the court after a big game has caused concern. Not just for the usual "safety" reasons, either; Arkansas-Pine Bluff fans rushed the court thinking they'd won (not sure why, the game was going into overtime), and got charged with a technical foul. Since regulation was over, the free throws became the first scoring in overtime, and Pine Bluff lost by one point.

It seems inevitable that fan behavior will continue to escalate until someone is hurt, or a player-fan brawl ensues (like one that nearly happened after AUB-Memphis). At that point, teams will crack down on fans and there will be all sorts of overreaction which will take the fun out of student section antics. As always, a few bad apples will spoil the soup for all of us.

Vanderbilt beats Tennessee (final score: 72-69) - Are they the best home team?

As I had suspected might occur, Vanderbilt beat Tennessee last night. The Commodores are 18-0 at home now, and what's interesting is the marked contrast between some of the team's home and road performances. Take a look, now, at their games with the teams they've played home and away:

Opponent           Road margin      Home margin   diff
South Carolina       1 pt.             7 pts.      +6
Kentucky            -6                41           +47
Florida             -22                3           +25
Georgia              8                12           +4
Tennessee           -20                3           +23
                                            Ave:   +21

For common opponents, Vanderbilt is 21 points better at home. Does this make them the best home team in the country? Or maybe they're just bad on the road, after all, all four of their losses were on the road, including a 16 point loss to Mississippi.

And if Vanderbilt is the conjectured best home team, which team might be the worst road team? One good candidate is Michigan State, who lost to both Iowa and Penn State, compared to their undefeated home slate.

First we have to decide what we mean be "best home team." It could be defined as the toughest team to beat at home, period; or we can say, the team that plays the best at home compared to a neutral court. With the latter definition, a very poor team could earn that title. Let's try to find both.

We'll use the Points power rating and re-average every team's schedule for both home and road games. To see which teams improve their play the most at home, we subtract their home rating from their overall rating for all games. This yields a "home improvement" score, so the following are the teams that overachieve the most at home:

Home Court Overachievers
#   Team                   home rec   rec      hcAdv
1.  Presbyterian               5-0    5-25    10.02
2.  North Dakota St.           9-2   14-13     6.21
3.  Toledo                     8-2    8-17     5.62
4.  George Washington          7-4    8-14     5.60
5.  Howard                     4-4    5-23     5.53
6.  Harvard                    7-4    8-18     5.42
7.  Denver                     9-3   11-16     5.31
8.  Savannah St.               8-3   13-17     5.27
9.  Tulsa                     11-2   15-10     5.07
10. Kansas St.                14-2   18-9      5.07
also:
67. Michigan St.              17-0   22-5      1.87
107. Vanderbilt               18-0   24-4      1.08

The number on the right (hcAdv) is the home court advantage these teams have over and above the generic amount that is calculated for all teams as an aggregate (3.85 points as of now). So Presbyterian is almost 14 points better when playing at home vs. a neutral court. They're 5-0 at home, 0-23 on the road. Toledo is 8-2 vs. 0-15.

You'll notice there aren't many good teams on the list; that's because the good teams play the vast majority of their games at home, so diverging wildly from their overall score is difficult. But Kansas State manages to do it, playing an additional five points better at home, where they are 14-2 vs. 4-7 in road and neutral games.

Michigan State and Vanderbilt both gain an extra edge at home, but for Vanderbilt it's surprisingly low—just an additional point.

Also, we can look at which teams play the worst at home:

Home Court Underachievers
#    Team                   home rec   rec     hcAdv
332. Florida Gulf Coast        3-6    9-19    -4.58
333. Grambling                 3-6    6-15    -4.86
334. Pepperdine                4-6   10-18    -4.94
335. St. Francis PA            3-12   6-21    -5.04
336. Texas Southern            4-5    7-20    -5.57
337. Arkansas Pine Bluff       5-5   12-14    -5.63
338. Sacred Heart              8-3   16-11    -5.67
339. La Salle                  5-5   13-13    -5.72
340. Monmouth                  1-11   6-22    -6.62
341. American                 10-6   17-10    -8.63

These teams actually play worse at home. Add back the 3.85 points and it's not by much, but it is interesting that American at 10-6 at home averages worse scores than on the road. Their road win over Maryland might be the factor that makes their home performance look so poor.

Now let's look at the good road teams, the road overachievers:

Road Overachievers
#   Team                   home rec   rec     rAdv
1.  St. Francis PA             3-9    6-21    6.31
2.  American                  10-6   17-10    5.93
3.  Purdue                     5-4   21-6     5.88
4.  Houston                    4-3   20-6     5.15
5.  Louisville                 8-2   22-6     5.13
6.  New Orleans                9-3   18-10    4.84
7.  Monmouth                   3-10   6-22    4.32
8.  Morgan St.                 6-7   18-9     4.31
9.  La Salle                   8-6   13-13    4.22
10. Seton Hall                 4-7   17-11    4.18

Many of the road overachievers are the same as the worst home underachievers. St. Francis, American, Monmouth, and La Salle all show up in both lists. Clearly St. Francis is just bad at home, thereby looking good on the road. And Morgan State's close road losses to Miami and UConn make their home efforts pale by comparison.

Road Underachievers
#   Team                   home rec   rec      rAdv
332. East Carolina             1-7    8-17    -5.31
333. Denver                    0-13  11-16    -5.34
334. George Washington         1-10   8-14    -5.60
335. Harvard                   0-13   8-18    -6.21
336. Missouri St.              1-11  15-15    -6.34
337. Kansas St.                3-5   18-9     -6.54
338. Missouri                  2-7   15-13    -6.67
339. Utah St.                  3-8   19-9     -6.75
340. St. Louis                 2-8   15-12    -7.05
341. Xavier                    7-3   24-4     -7.30
also:
314. Michigan St.              5-4   22-5     -3.69
323. Vanderbilt                4-4   24-4     -4.38

These are the worst teams, relatively speaking, on the road. For the most part these are bad teams that play even worse away from home, but the biggest road penalty goes to Xavier. They did lose three times on the road, to Miami of Ohio, Temple, and Arizona State by 22, compared to once at home to Tennessee.

Looking at Michigan State and Vanderbilt, both team suffer quite a bit on the road. So while our hypothesis that the Spartans are a poor road team seems true, Vanderbilt also looks more like a bad road team than a great home team. But it's hard to tell since both team's overall scores are dominated by a large amount of home games.

The relative scores don't help sometimes, as we can see. Let's look, in absolute terms, at the toughest home teams and the best road teams.

Toughest home teams, absolute
#   Team                      rec      rating  overall rank
1.  Kansas                    18-0     26.72       1
2.  Duke                      14-0     26.31       2
3.  North Carolina            13-2     23.77       3
4.  Xavier                    15-1     22.98       8
5.  Kansas St.                14-2     22.49       16
6.  Memphis                   15-1     22.24       4
7.  Tennessee                 14-0     22.14       6
8.  UCLA                      15-2     21.98       5
9.  Marquette                 14-1     19.42       9
10. Georgetown                14-0     19.11       10
also:
15. Michigan St.              17-0     17.85       21
46. Vanderbilt                18-0     12.71       46

The toughest home teams are, for the most part, the toughest teams. Since they play tons of home games, their overall average reflects these games, and separating out the home games doesn't show much of a difference. But a few teams stand out. For example, Kansas State jumps from 16th to 5th looking at just home court performance. And Xavier—last in relative road performance—is 4th in home court performance.

Michigan State shows an improvement in home performance vs. all games, but Vanderbilt surprisingly does not; they're 46th when all games are considered, and 46th in home court ranking. They're 18-0 at home, but when all 18 games are averaged, they come out just a bit better than when their whole schedule is averaged.

Best road teams, absolute
#   Team                      rec      rating  overall rank
1.  Memphis                    8-0     23.96       4
2.  UCLA                       7-1     23.32       5
3.  Louisville                 8-2     23.31       13
4.  North Carolina            10-0     22.30       3
5.  Duke                       5-2     22.27       2
6.  Kansas                     6-3     22.26       1
7.  Wisconsin                  9-2     22.17       7
8.  Tennessee                  9-2     20.10       6
9.  Washington St.             9-2     20.07       17
10. Clemson                    6-4     18.99       18
also
37. Michigan St.               5-4     12.28       21
85. Vanderbilt                 4-4      7.24       46

Again, in the best road teams, a lot are just the best teams, though Louisville shows strength here, as well as Washington State and Clemson. We can see that are suspicions about Michigan State were true: they rank 16 spots lower as a road team (and 21 spots lower than their home team ranks).

Vanderbilt ranks almost 40 positions lower as a road team! From these numbers, it appears that the Commodores are a poor road team, so much of the discrepancy between their play at home and on the road is explained by that, rather than by supposing they're extra strong in Nashville. This is why they lost to mediocre Kentucky, and to three other teams by big double digits.

But saying they're a bad road team doesn't explain how they beat Kentucky by 41, or how they upset Tennessee. Clearly these were both excellent performances. Averaged among 16 other games, though, their home performance isn't that special; they haven't faced many good teams in Nashville. Also, Vanderbilt scores much lower than expected in power ratings based on score margins, mostly due to weak pre-conference scheduling.

If I were a coach bringing a team into Nashville to face the Commodores, though, I wouldn't count on seeing only the 46th best team in the country on the other bench.

Their road performance, however, should worry fans that, like Tennessee, their celebration over winning the big game won't last long, as they travel to Arkansas on Saturday. The Razorbacks have lost 3 of their last four games, and Vanderbilt recently beat Georgia and South Carolina on the road. Can momentum carry Vanderbilt to their first decent road win of the year?

Week 17 Hoops Preview: February 25-28

Tuesday, February 26

#1 Tennessee (25-2) at #17 Vanderbilt (23-4) - If the Volunteers come out of this one with a win I'll really be impressed. Vanderbilt is tough at home, maybe even moreso than Memphis, and a letdown is always a possibility after such a huge game. The Commodores beat Florida after losing in Gainesville by 22, and beat Kentucky by 41 after losing in double overtime in Lexington. Overall, for the four teams they've played twice, they're averaging 21 points better in the home game than on the road. Tennessee won the Knoxville game by 20...

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BYU (21-6) at New Mexico (22-6) - BYU, UNLV, and New Mexico all have six losses, but New Mexico lost badly to the other two on the road. BYU leads UNLV by a game in the Mountain West, with New Mexico two games back. Over the course of this game and next week's UNLV game, Steve Alford's team can either assert itself as the team to beat in the conference, or suffer a late-season fall and imperil their tournament chances.

Wednesday, February 27

Miami (19-7) at Clemson (19-7) - The ACC has Duke and UNC and then five teams vying for third place, including these teams, who have the best overall records and RPI ratings (25, 23) of the others, making the game important for NCAA seeding as well. Both teams started the seasons with long winning streaks then hit the skids, though the Hurricanes have recovered with a big win over Duke.

Thursday, February 28

#19 Notre Dame (21-5) at Louisville (22-6) - Another test for Louisville's big surge since getting David Padgett back. The Cardinals lead the Big East and the Irish are a half game back in the tightest conference race.

#13 Michigan State (22-5) at #6 Wisconsin (23-4) - The Badgers are underrated in the national polls; they've lost only to teams in the AP top 25, and beat Texas in Austin and co-conference-leader Indiana twice, yet they're behind the likes of Stanford. This game is very important in the Big Ten race, as Wisconsin also lost to co-leader Purdue twice.

CSU Northridge (18-7) at CSU Fullerton (18-7) - No one (myself included) pays much attention to the Big West, but they have three teams with seven losses for the year, these two teams and 20-7 UC Santa Barbara. All three are in the conference title hunt as well. Northridge plays both the other teams before the season is out. Since an at-large bid from the conference is unlikely, the Big West winner will have a strong advantage to winning the NCAA berth.

SportsRatings Top 25 - week 16: Tennessee is #1

Tennessee reached #1 after beating former #1 Memphis. They are deserving, even apart from the Memphis win; they have three other top 25 victories and only two losses. The Tigers fall to #2; the question is, if the Vols lose to Vanderbilt, or in the SEC tourney, do they fall below Memphis again? It seems to me that Memphis is destined to finish the year #1; they are unlikely to lose again, and no other team will probably make it the rest of the way without a loss. Luckily the Tigers have a worthy résumé themselves.

UCLA quietly held down the #3 spot, while Duke remained 4th despite losing to Miami. I did this because they beat #5 North Carolina on the road, and #6 Wisconsin by 24 points. UNC only has one top 25 win themselves, over Kent State. Texas re-enters the top ten after several weeks out of it (they were #2 earlier in the year); they're still trapped behind Wisconsin for now, but if they keep winning the sky's the limit with their strong résumé, and by this time in the season four losses isn't a lot anymore.

Xavier keeps creeping upward. Now in the top ten, their win over #10 Indiana is their major claim to quality. The Hoosiers dodged a major bullet in their first post-Sampson game. They look better on paper than the Hoyas, but before I jump them over Georgetown I need to see that they're capable of playing like they did before Sampson was canned.

And speaking of better résumés, that's the reason Drake is now ahead of Kansas. Drake ahead of Kansas? At this point, for all its talent, KU has yet to beat a current top 25 opponent. Though Drake lost last week and fall three spots, they also beat Butler on the road, which is the main difference between what the two teams have accomplished with their similar records. The SportsRatings Top 25 is not meant to project winners, but to evaluate prior results, and it's too late in the year to be in the top ten with three losses and no quality wins.

The SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 for Week 16 (games through 2/24/2008)

lw    #  Team           rec  losses; wins vs. top 25
2     1. Tennessee      25-2 L@KY-6,=Tex-19;w@Mem+4,@Xav+7,Vandy+20,@Gonz+10
1     2. Memphis        26-1 L Tenn-4;wGtown+14,=Conn+11,Gonz+8
3     3. UCLA           24-3 L@Wash-10,USC-9,Tex-2;w=MSU+5,@Stan+9,WSU+7,@WSU+8
4     4. Duke           23-3 L=PittOT,@Miami-1,@WF-13;wWisc+24,@UNC+11
5     5. N. Carolina    26-2 L Mary-2,Duke-11;KentSt+29,w=BYU+10
10    6. Wisconsin      23-4 L Marq-5,@Pur-4,Pur-5,@Duke-24;w@Texas+1,Ind+13,@Ind+2
11    7. Texas          23-4 L@MO-13,@A&M-17,@MSU-6,WI-1;w=TN+19,@UCLA+2,KU+3,StM+19 
12    8. Xavier         24-4 L@MiOH-2,@Tem-19,@ASU-22,TN-7;wInd+15,=KentSt+13
13    9. Georgetown     22-4 L@Pitt-9,@Lou-8,@Syr-7,@Memphis-14;wND+19,Conn+3
14   10. Indiana        23-4 L UConn-5,=Xavier-15,@Wis-13,Wis-2;wMSU+19,Pur+9
8    11. Drake          24-3 L@SoILL-3,Brad-1,@St.Mary's-6;w@Butler+7
6    12. Kansas         24-3 L@Okst-1,@KSt-9,@Tex-3
16   13. Michigan St.   22-5 L@Iowa-7,@PSU-9,@IN-19,@Pur-6,=UCLA-5;wTx+6,Pur+3,BYU+7
9    14. Purdue         21-6 L@MO-10,Wof-3,@ISU-3,@Clm-3,@MSU-3,@IN-9;w@WI+5,WI+4,wMSU+6
15   15. St. Mary's     23-4 L@SanD-8,@SoILL-15,KentSt-8,@Tex-19;wDrake+6,GonzOT
17   16. Stanford       22-4 L@Siena-12,@Ore-5,@ASUot,UCLA-9;w@WSUot
19   17. Vanderbilt     23-4 L@KYot,@FLA-22,@Miss-16,@Tenn-20;wSBamaOT
7    18. Butler         25-3 L@WriSt-1,@CleveSt-4,Drake-7
21   19. Notre Dame     21-5 L=GT-1,@Marq-26,=Bay-4,@Conn-6,@GTown-19;wConn+6
25   20. Kent State     23-5 L@Det-1,@Tol-3,@Ohio-12,=Xav-13,@NC-29;w@StMarys+8
23   21. Steph.F.Austin 22-3 L@NichStOT,@TTech-16,@SamH-2
20   22. Washington St. 21-6 L@Az-12,Az-10,Cal-5,StanOT,@UCLA-7,UCLA-8;wGonz+4
     23. Gonzaga        21-6 L=TTech-10,@OK-4,WSU-4,@StMaryOT,Tenn-10,@Mem-8;@Conn+3
18   24. Connecticut    21-6 L Prov-12,@Vil-2,Gon-3,@ND-6,@Gtwn-3,=Mem-11;wND+6,@IN+5
     25. South Alabama  22-5 L@MTenn-6,=MiaOH-5,@NTex-2,@Miss-3,@VandyOT
out:
24       BYU            21-6 L@Boise-3,@WF-17,@SDSU-4,@UNLV-29,=NC-10,MSU-7
22       Texas A&M      20-7 L OKst-5,@TTch-15,NE-6,@KSt-21,@Az-11,BayOT,@Tx-27;wTx+16
 
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week

Michigan State floats up to #13 as other teams lose; though they're the highest-rated 5-loss team, the road losses to Iowa and Penn State still weigh them down. They got revenge on both those teams this week at home, but they'll need to beat Wisconsin to show they're top-ten-worthy again. The fourth Big Ten team, Purdue, saw their winning streak end and fell five spots.

Normally St. Mary's would fall for losing to Kent State, but they have more quality wins than Stanford or Vanderbilt. The Cardinal only have an overtime win vs. Washington State, and Vandy previously beat top 25 newcomer South Alabama, also in overtime. Both play in tougher conferences, Stanford especially, so I reserve the right to jump them over the Gaels, but for now St. Mary's losses and wins stack up better.

Instead I moved Kent State up five spots for winning the Bracketbusters road game, just behind Notre Dame. And speaking of bracket busters, the team that got busted the most was Butler; like Kansas, they now have three losses and no good wins, but unlike Kansas, they play in a weak conference. Why should they be ahead of St. Mary's, a team with two quality wins, one of those over Drake, who just beat Butler? I decided they shouldn't. #21 Stephen F. Austin also has three (even worse) losses with no big wins, but at this stage in the season, having only three losses is pretty decent regardless of schedule or conference.

Washington State and Connecticut both suffered upset losses, giving them identical 21-6 records; both teams faced Gonzaga (also 21-6) this year, with the Cougars winning and the Huskies losing to the Zags, hence the pecking order. BYU and Texas A&M lost—the Aggies twice—and fell out; South Alabama, who won their showdown with Western Kentucky, earned the 25th spot. One of these days I'll get Louisville back in the top 25, but right now without breaking my guidelines (they're still behind BYU) it would be hard to incorporate them. Other than that, the teams in my top 25 are very similar to the AP top 25, much closer than just a few weeks ago.

Is Memphis better off for losing the Tennessee game? Undefeated teams vs. one-loss teams NCAA tournament performance analyzed

Now that Memphis has seen their quest for a perfect season come to an end, the inevitable talk has started that Memphis is better off having lost a game before the NCAA tournament, rather than going in undefeated.

The same old reasons are trotted out with this argument: It takes the "pressure" of going undefeated off. It get a loss "out of their system." It shows them how bad it feels to lose, so that they'll make sure it never happens again. And it keeps them from becoming overconfident. All of these things are put forth as good things, without any research to back it up.

If you use history as your guide instead, the data tell a different story. Namely, teams entering the tournament undefeated win a disproportionate share of titles, while teams that go in with one loss have a disturbing propensity to lose in the Round of 32.

To research this I examined every NCAA tournament from 1953—when the tourney expanded beyond 16 teams—through  2007, recording how each undefeated and one-loss team fared. In all, 16 teams entered undefeated, and 45 came in with one loss.

Teams With One Loss

The one-loss teams did quite well. Six of them won the whole thing, and seven others finished second. Six more made the Final Four.

An additional seven lost in the Elite Eight, and six others stopped at the Sweet Sixteen. But the uniformity ends here, as there were 12 that died in the Round of 32 (or 22 to 25, before the tourney expanded to 32 in 1975). One team (La Salle in 1990) even lost in the Round of 64. So while many of these teams performed admirably, the most likely result for teams that entered the tournament with one loss has been, sadly, an early round upset.

The most glaring example of this was DePaul, victimized by the one-loss curse three years in a row. The Blue Demons were 26-1 and ranked #1 in 1980 and lost their opening game to UCLA in the first 48-team tourney.  They were 27-1 and #1 in 1981 and again lost in the Round of 32, this time to St. Joseph's. Finally, in 1982 they went 26-1 and were ranked #2 (the pollsters were getting a bit gun-shy by this time) when they fell immediately to Boston College.

The most recent 1-loss teams were Illinois (2nd in 2005), St. Joseph's (Elite Eight in 2004) and Stanford (Round of 32 in 2004).

Undefeated Teams

Overall the undefeated teams fared much better. Out of sixteen, seven won the title; two others finished second; three more made the Final Four. This means that roughly 44% that won championships, and 75% that made the Final Four. Contrast that with 13% and 42% for the one-loss teams, and you have to conclude it would be unwise to recommend that a team lose a game to improve their tournament chances.

A few of the undefeated teams that didn't make the Final Four lost by unusual circumstances. Indiana, 29-0 in 1975, fell by 2 points in the Elite Eight to Kentucky—a team they had beaten soundly earlier in season—when leading scorer Scott May became injured. Adding insult is what happened to 1971's great untarnished Marquette team, when Coach Al McGuire's son Allie committed a turnover and a foul with seven seconds remaining against Ohio State, turning a one-point lead into a one-point loss in the round of 16 (before it was called the Sweet Sixteen—and it certainly wasn't for the Warriors).

Taken another way, undefeated teams have as much chance of winning the championship as one-loss teams  have of making the Final Four, and the same chance (75%) of making the Final Four as the once-losers have of reaching the Sweet Sixteen. Based on these numbers the average zero-loss team should make it two brackets further than the typical one-time-loser.

Table: NCAA Tournament Results, Undefeated Teams vs. One-Loss Teams

             Undefeated    One-Loss  
Champion:       44%          13%
Final Four:     75%          42%
Sweet 16:      100%          71%

There are, of course, some things that may skew these results. Here are the questions you are probably asking right now:

UCLA dominated college basketball in the Wooden era. Take that out and how do the stats change?

Good point. UCLA went undefeated and won the title four times within a decade, so perhaps they should be considered an aberration and be removed from the statistics. Although logically there's no reason to exclude them, it does seem a bit unfair of them to do so well, so we'll take them out. This reduces the number of undefeated title winners to just three of 13.

Still, this 23% win rate handily beats the one-loss championship rate. Especially if, in the name of fairness, we remove UCLA from the other side of the equation, which deprives the one-time-losers of three titles, leaving their take at a mere 7% (3 of 42).

Some of this data is ancient history; no one's gone undefeated and won the Big Dance since Indiana in 1976. What's happened since then?

From 1977 on, only 2 teams entered the tournament undefeated. To me, this suggests that going undefeated in the regular season is tougher than ever, so take team that manages to do it very seriously. Indiana State (i.e., Larry Bird) lost in the finals in 1979. UNLV (i.e., Jerry Tarkanian munching on a towel) made the Final Four in 1991 but lost to Duke.

One-time losers are still fairly common in the modern era, with 17 (about one every 2 years). Of these, 9 lost in the round of 32 or earlier. That's over 50%. Remove DePaul as the anti-UCLA of this group and it's still 6 of 14 or 43%. Only four made the Final Four (24%), and none won the whole thing.

Conclusions

What can we gather from this? A few things. One is that teams go undefeated for a reason: they don't lose games because they're better than everyone else. Its corollary in obviousness is this: teams that lose a game have simply established that they're not invincible, giving hope to every future opponent.

I reject the hypothesis that going undefeated is a "burden" on a team. Going into the NCAA Tournament, every team has the same pressure: lose and you're out. Overconfidence is not much of a factor in the tournament either, as most realize that any tournament team can upset any other team.

I hope this will enlighten some, and stop them from claiming that Memphis is necessarily better for having blemished their record. And when you pencil in the Tigers in your office pool, realize that they have a fair chance of going all the way, but pause before advancing them past the Round of 32...just in case.

Great Day for Tom Davis disciples: Bruce Pearl, Keno Davis coach Tennessee and Drake to big wins

Two protégés of coaching legend Tom Davis scored big upset road wins on Saturday, both using variants of the system he made famous. First, Keno Davis' Drake Bulldogs squad beat the Butler Bulldogs, 71-64; later, of course, Bruce Pearl's Tennessee Volunteers won the Game of the Year at Memphis, stunning the Tigers 66-62 and almost certainly taking over the #1 ranking in the country.

Davis, known as "Dr. Tom", coached at Lafayette, Boston College, Stanford, and Iowa, then returned to coach Drake until last year. He developed a system known, appropriately enough, as the "Davis system" which is based on a full court press, very frequent substitution, a running style, and results in generally high scoring games. His better teams would go on frequent runs that could put an opponent away for good, or overcome almost any deficit the team found itself in.

At Iowa in 1987, the Hawkeyes started 18-0 and reached #1 after overcoming a 22-point deficit and beating Illinois in overtime. In a 10-day stretch, Iowa beat the Illini (who were undefeated at the time themselves) on the road, Purdue in West Lafayette, and Indiana at home. All three teams were ranked in the top ten at the time.

That Iowa team reached the Elite Eight before losing to UNLV, a game in which they held a 15-point halftime lead. Their roster, of course, included future NBA players B.J. Armstrong, Kevin Gamble, and Brad Lohaus among others. In all, Davis' Iowa teams went to nine NCAA tournaments, and along with his two trips with Boston College he went 11-0 in first round NCAA games. Bruce Pearl was an assistant to Tom Davis at Boston College, Stanford, and Iowa. 

Later at Drake, Davis' tenure began at a time when the Missouri Valley Conference was becoming one of the toughest in the nation, and the Bulldogs' recent years included some of their worst teams ever. Despite this, he led Drake to their first winning record in 20 years, and set up the success of his son, Keno, who took over the program.

Both Pearl and Keno Davis took Tom Davis' system, updated and modified it to their liking, and have had great success with it. Pearl, after the Dean Thomas 'scandal', coached at Division II Southern Indiana for nine years, winning a national championship; he then took Wisconsin-Milwaukee to the Sweet Sixteen; then went on to his current success at Tennessee. In his first year Keno Davis has coached Drake to their best season since the late 60s, when the Bulldogs made three NCAA appearances including a 3rd place finish.

Just yesterday, both coaches scored the biggest victories of their careers. Pearl's Tennessee squad will be ranked #1 for the first time in school history. Keno Davis' Drake Bulldogs beat a top ten opponent for the first time in 25 years. Both of these major victories came on the road, in pressure-filled situations where coaching is of added importance.

Tom Davis has to feel good about yesterday's events. Davis always handled himself well; he could correctly be described as the "anti-Bobby Knight." Polite and respectful in interviews and never angry at press conferences, the term "class act" was used many times to describe Davis. Perhaps most tellingly, when he was unceremoniously dumped by Iowa in the late 90s (passively, by not renewing his contract), Davis was asked about the circumstances repeatedly but said he would address the matter only when the season was over. And when the season was over, a year in which Iowa made the Sweet Sixteen, Tom Davis never did deliver the criticisms many were expecting.

Ironically, though he contrasts with Bobby Knight in demeanor, their later coaching years had several similarities. Both were let go against their will from the schools where they had coached the longest, Iowa and Indiana, around the turn of the century; both had a brief "retirement" period before returning to coaching at Drake and Texas Tech respectively; both brought new enthusiasm and more winning to their new programs before retiring again recently, Davis at the end of last season, Knight just a few weeks ago; and both left the teams in the care of their sons as head coach.

While Davis never had the NCAA championships Knight had, his coaching system lives on via Pearl and Keno Davis. As yesterday's results indicate, it wouldn't be surprising if the Davis System eventually yields a national champion.

Bracketbusters undercard upset: Kent State 65, St. Mary's 57

Kent State (#25 SportsRatings top 25) outhustled #15 St. Mary's at the end and came away with a 65-57 victory, their first ever regular season win over a ranked opponent.

Al Fisher had 28 points to lead the Golden Flashes, while defensive stopper Haminn Quaintince added 11. Diamon Simpson had 24 for the Gaels, who shot just 19% from the 3-point line. St. Mary's led most of the way, including a 28-26 halftime edge, but went cold after taking a 53-47 lead with 7 minutes left.

From there, Mike Scott scored on a 3-pointer and a jumper, then two Ficher free throws gave Kent the lead. at 4:30 left. St. Mary's took their last lead with four minutes left, then Quaintance and Fisher put Kent State ahead 58-55 with just over 2 minutes left.

Scott and Fisher pushed the lead to 7 with 30 seconds to go. After a basket and two Kent State free throws, St. Mary's missed three shots and fouled with 8 seconds left, still down 64-57.

The Gaels lost their fourth game of the season, and their first at home. They still have wins over Drake and Gonzaga and lead the West Coast Conference. Kent State leads the MAC and is now 1-36 against ranked opponents during the regular season.

Volunteers Rule - Final Score: Tennessee 66, Memphis 62

#2 Tennessee will soon have their first #1 ranking ever after beating Memphis 66-62. Transfer Tyler Smith hit a key, difficult basket with 30 seconds left to put Tennessee ahead for good, and Chris Lofton hit two free throws to make the margin a miracle-proof 4 points with 2 seconds left.

Memphis started out on a tear, hitting three-pointer after three-pointer early in the first half. At one point the Tigers had seven 3's, one normal goal and three free throws after starting 7-11 from outside the arc. Tennessee nearly matched them by making most of their shots as well.

Neither team could keep the brutal pace and the half ended with Memphis ahead 35-24.

Memphis' outside shooting went cold after the break; they didn't make a 3-pointer in the second half. Derrick Rose kept the game tight; he led the Tigers with 23 points. Memphis led 61-60 and had the ball with  2 minutes left, but they missed three shots and drained the clock down to 45 seconds without scoring. Then Smith hit the go-ahead shot, Memphis missed again and fouled. The Volunteers' J.P. Prince, a Memphis native and less than 50% free throw shooter, made two to give Tennessee a three point lead.

Then Bruce Pearl wisely chose to have his team foul Memphis before they could attempt a tying basket. Derrick Rose made the first shot and intentionally missed the second, but Lofton recovered the ball and was fouled.

Smith led Tennessee with 16 and Prince added 13, including a dunk off an assist from JaJuan Smith, who was sprawled out at halfcourt going after a loose ball. Prince also had a highlight reel layup high off the backboard with five minutes left.

Chris Douglas-Roberts had 14 for the Tigers, who hit only 8 of 17 free throws, living up to their 5th-worst-in-the-nation reputation. The Vols, who are not much better in that stat, made 12 of 18.

Upset in Stillwater - final score: Oklahoma State 61, Kansas 60

Byron Eaton's 26 points led Oklahoma State to a 61-60 upset of Kansas in Stillwater.

Eaton hit a free throw with 12 seconds left and Kansas' Brandon Rush missed a last-second shot, giving the Cowboys the win.

The loss—the Jayhawks' third overall—drops them out of the Big 12 lead for the first time this season.

KU fell behind by 9 points in the second half before coming back and going ahead by four, but Marcus Dove's 3-pointer put the Cowboys ahead, 60-58, with one minute left, then Darnell Jackson hit a layup to tie the game.

Kansas had 21 turnovers in the game.

"Battle of the Bulldogs" Bracketbusters results: final score - Drake 71, Butler 64

After a slow first half start at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Drake got on track and outlasted Butler, 71-64, despite shooting only 5-17 for three pointers. Josh Young had three of those 3-pointers, all in the first half, as he finished with 25 points. His most important three points were the free throws he sank after being fouled behind the arc with 20 seconds to go.

Drake took a 38-35 halftime lead over Butler and led 64-60 with 2:30 left after a late 9-0 run. Butler also shot uncharacteristically poorly from the 3-point line, making only 6 of 24. A.J. Graves led Butler with 18 points.

Drake made several early turnover mistakes and missed a few extra-long 3-pointers, but eventually got on target with the 3-pointers from Young and several easy inside layups from Jonathan Cox. Butler responded with some 3's of their own and good inside play from Matt Howard, including a great intercepted pass right under Butler's own basket for an easy layup:

Howard finished with 16 points for Butler.

In the second half, Drake and Butler traded alley oop plays, with Drake's on a great long-range shot-pass to Leonard Houston that he caught high in the sky:

Houston also had 16 points. The game stayed close and exciting thoughout—the final score was the biggest lead of the game—which was fitting for how similar the teams are, as seen in this graphic:

The win gives Drake their first top 25 victory and will help their NCAA seed immeasureably after suffering two losses in their last three games. Butler falls to 25-3, still a guaranteed at-large selection even if they fail to win the Horizon League tournament.

Weekend preview, Feb. 22-23

This weekend features a great three-course basketball meal on Saturday: a major mid-major appetizer followed by the main course Game of the Season, and another mid-major battle for dessert.

Saturday, February 23

#14 Indiana (22-4) at Northwestern (7-17) - The main attraction of this game is too see whether the six players that skipped practice following Kelvin Sampson's "resignation" make the trip. If they don't, does Northwestern have a chance to win their first Big Ten game? If so, how well will the team play? I can only imagine that their situation now is the opposite from a week ago, when they were at home defending their coach's honor.

#8 Drake (22-3) at #7 Butler (25-2) - Though Drake has lost twice recently, both Bulldog teams still have among the best records in college basketball, and this matchup (part of the "Bracketbusters" series) is one of the best of the year. There are a lot of similarities between this game and Tennessee-Memphis. Drake's coach, Keno Davis, learned his full-court-press system from Tom Davis (his father), for whom Bruce Pearl was an assistant in the 90s. Drake will also be the underdog Saturday against the higher-rated home team with the better record. And like the Tennessee game, I'm taking the upset here, for the same reason: while Drake (like Tennessee) is dominating a conference suffering a down year, they still are playing against tougher competition than Butler's weak Horizon league.

Though Butler beat several middle-of-the-pack Big Six teams (Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Ohio State) early on, they haven't played a top 100 team in 2008. They'll be ready for Drake, as they've beaten two teams that beat the Des Moines-based Bulldogs (Bradley and Southern Illinois). Both teams want to prove they can beat a ranked team, so it will be a battle, but I think luck is on Drake's side Saturday.

#2 Tennessee (24-2) at #1 Memphis (26-0) - 'Nuff said about this one. See my analysis of this game here if you want to read more.

#25 Kent State (22-5) at #15 St. Mary's (23-3) - This will be the most undeservedly neglected game of the year. It comes on a day featuring #1 vs. #2, and follows it, to boot. On top of that, it's only the 2nd best mid-major (yes I still use that term) showdown of the day, by a longshot. But Mid-American conference representative Kent State has their strongest team in years (remember their final 8 run in '02?), and WCC leader St. Mary's of course beat Drake, so this game could be just as important for the NCAA seedings as the main event Bracketbusters game.

Sunday, February 24

Louisville (21-6) at Pittsburgh (19-7) - Kansas State eff'ed up again, losing and keeping themselves out of my top 25. Louisville is the other team I want to put in—they've just got to keep winning. Pitt has failed a couple of tests recently; this game could help them gain a better Big East tournament seed, but at this point a win would mainly function to break the 4-way logjam at the top.

Power Rating update 2/21: Duke still #2 in both lists

Despite losing two straight, Duke remains #2 in both power ratings, and in the new combined power rating.

The Win/Loss ratings for games through 2/21:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   Pts rank
1.  Memphis                   26-0     51.18       3
2.  Duke                      22-3     35.47       2
3.  Texas                     22-4     33.89      15
4.  Tennessee                 24-2     32.98       6
5.  UCLA                      23-3     27.84       5
6.  Kansas                    24-2     25.65       1
7.  North Carolina            25-2     24.16       4
8.  Wisconsin                 22-4     20.94       8
9.  Butler                    25-2     18.12      36
10. Stanford                  21-4     17.22      13

The Blue Devils were closing in on Memphis' #1 rank in the Win/Loss power rating, which doesn't use score margin. But now the Tigers are far and away the top team, as everyone else has 2 or more losses. Texas continues their climb toward the top, bracketbuster Butler sits at #9, while Drake's 3rd loss drops them to #19.

Points-only power rating through 2/21:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   W/L rank
1.  Kansas                    24-2     25.68       6
2.  Duke                      22-3     23.57       2
3.  Memphis                   26-0     23.04       1
4.  North Carolina            25-2     22.96       7
5.  UCLA                      23-3     22.22       5
6.  Tennessee                 24-2     20.15       4
7.  Xavier                    23-4     19.31      11
8.  Wisconsin                 22-4     19.20       8
9.  Georgetown                20-4     18.77      13
10. Marquette                 19-6     18.76      16

Duke doesn't fall in the points-only rating either, though that's more to be expected. The loss to Miami was only one point, and even with the Wake Forest 13 point margin, those are both decent teams (#42 and #68) and were road games. Averaging these among Duke's 25 games lowers their rating, but not enough for Memphis to overtake them.

It's interesting how the two lists are starting to come together. All of the teams in the Points top ten are 16th or better. While Butler is still an aberration, Drake is only 10 spots apart on the two lists (19th and 29th), and West Virginia has slid to 16th in Points after being 7th or better most of the year while their Win/Loss ranking is far lower.

To give an overall idea of team strength, I've combined the two rating systems, like I do for college football. It makes a pretty decent balance between winning games and dominating scorewise:

Combined Win/Loss + Points rating through 2/21:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   AP rank
1.  Memphis                   26-0     74.23       1
2.  Duke                      22-3     59.04       3
3.  Tennessee                 24-2     53.13       2
4.  Texas                     22-4     51.71       7
5.  Kansas                    24-2     51.34       4
6.  UCLA                      23-3     50.07       6
7.  North Carolina            25-2     47.12       3
8.  Wisconsin                 22-4     40.14      11
9.  Xavier                    23-4     35.79      10
10. Stanford                  21-4     35.20       9
11. Georgetown                20-4     33.40      12
12. Marquette                 19-6     32.69      25
13. Michigan St.              21-5     31.79      19
14. Butler                    25-2     31.11       8
15. Washington St.            21-5     30.75      17
16. Louisville                21-6     30.16      18
17. Connecticut               21-5     29.68      13
18. Notre Dame                20-5     29.66      21
19. Indiana                   22-4     29.65      15
20. Pittsburgh                19-7     26.95      --
21. St. Mary's                23-3     26.93      23
22. Purdue                    21-6     26.83      14
23. Kansas St.                18-7     26.63      24
24. Drake                     23-3     26.62      16
25. Texas A&M                 20-6     25.51      22

All of the teams in this week's AP top 25 are in the Combined Power Rating top 25, with the exception of Vanderbilt. Pittsburgh makes the power rating list instead. Of course, some of these teams have lost since the AP poll was out, but it's interesting to compare the algorithm's results with aggregated informed human opinion.

Memphis vs. Tennessee: odds, analysis, and prediction

The #1 Memphis Tigers are set to host the #2 Tennessee Volunteers in what has become the Game of the Year, not just in the state of Tennessee but for all of college basketball. It's doubtful that the Duke/North Carolina matchup will carry this much hype, as it will be a rematch, the teams won't be #1 and #2, and let's face it, Duke/UNC is old hat. Until the big dance, this is the big game.

Both teams are on sizeable winning streaks and have performed well lately. Memphis, of course, is 26-0, and despite the hiccup at UAB has torn through their Conference-USA schedule. Tennessee is on an eight game winning streak and is a remarkable 11-1 in the SEC. Both teams have defeated their share of tough opponents, with Memphis beating #13 Georgetown and #18 Connecticut, while the Volunteers have conquered #12 Xavier and #19 Vanderbilt. Other quality wins for Memphis include Oklahoma, USC, and Arizona; Tennessee has defeated West Virginia, Ohio State, and Arkansas. Both squads beat Gonzaga.

I haven't seen any Vegas odds for the game yet. I expect Memphis to be about a 4 point favorite at home. UPDATE: the line is out, and Memphis opened a slightly surprising 6 1/2 point favorite; the spread has ranged from 5 to 7 points. There are a number of ways to look at the game from a score-based perspective only:

• In my Points power rating, Memphis is currently #3 and Tennessee #6; adding in home court advantage yields a 7 point spread for Memphis. (This jibes very close to the original oddsmakers line).
  

• Looking only at recent games (since January 1st), Memphis comes out a 9 point favorite. In this analysis, Memphis ranks 2nd, Tennessee 8th.

• Using a "custom" home court advantage for Memphis increases the spread to 14 points. The Tigers have a strong home court advantage, but more importantly Tennessee is much weaker away from home. Their loss to Texas was on a neutral court, and Kentucky beat them in Lexington. Their road wins are weaker, too: they beat Chattanooga by 6, LSU by 2, and Georgia by 3. At home, they beat the Bulldogs by 16.

• Comparing the teams game-by-game performance, Memphis wins 69.2% of the comparisons to Tennessee's 30.8%. This is with home court advantage added in. Ken Pomeroy gives Memphis an even higher winning odds, at 82%; in his rating system, Memphis is 3rd while Tennessee is only 16th.
  

Despite all this, I think Tennessee is going to win a close game. Even in an off year for the SEC, they've played a pretty consistently tough schedule, while Memphis has been plowing through their weaker conference. The Alabama-Birmingham game was an indication that they have gotten used to softer competition, and though they'll dial it up for Tennessee, it might be too much to ask. Things that have been working in conference play won't work as well against the Volunteers.

Measuring the teams' consistency, I find Memphis to be pretty consistent performance-wise; that is, the standard deviation of their (adjusted) score margin is low. Tennessee is quite unpredictable, in fact, they're the 7th most inconsistent team in the country out of 341. This suggests that, while both teams play at a high level, Memphis is more likely to maintain that level over a string of given games. That bodes well for their NCAA chances. But since Tennessee plays in a wider range, in a given game they might do exceptionally well (or poor). It just depends on which Tennessee team shows up on Saturday.

Same-state #1 vs. #2: History favors the Volunteers?

My gut feeling is that Tennessee will pull off the minor upset. 2008 just isn't a good year for undefeated teams; first Hawaii in college football, then the Patriots in pro football. It seems that, given any chance, undefeated teams in college basketball find one game to lose. This is probably Memphis' last test, and while it would be great to see a team enter the tournament without a loss, it just doesn't seem to want to happen. Again, this is just my gut feeling. I wouldn't put money on anyone against Memphis.

Both teams clearly have many great athletes. Style-wise, it comes down to how Memphis tackles Tennessee's press and avoids turnovers, and whether the Volunteers are able to use it effectively to slow down the Tigers' offense. Last year Tennessee won at home by 18 points, and Memphis has revenge on its mind. All the raw numbers favor Memphis, but once the teams get on the court anything can happen. It should be a great game.