SportsRatings: College Basketball

Duke fans reject green shirts, environmental awareness for NC State game

Interesting reaction from Duke fans at halftime of their game against North Carolina State. Evidently the powers that be at Duke didn't anticipate being behind at halftime, which put the Duke faithful in a sour enough mood to toss their green shirts back onto the court.

Wait...green shirts?

Duke is participating in something called "Focus the Nation" to raise awareness of climate change issues. According to treehugger.com, "game patrons will be encouraged to participate in Cameron's newly expanded recycling efforts, and to consider sharing rides and saving fuel the next time they come to a game."

But the Blue Devils were down 9 at halftime, and the shirts started flying.

Doesn't reflect particularly well on the Duke student-fans, does it? Regardless of whether you "believe" in global warming, or think recycling is evil, doesn't it disrespect your own court when you can't at least humor the goals which your school has signed on to? And they get a free shirt, too, only to throw it back?

That said, it looks like the vast majority of students kept the shirts, and even the bodies painters for the most part switched to green for the game.

There also might have been some ulterior motives at work with cluttering up the court...

But in the end, the Blue Devils came back and won easily anyway.

Games of the week: January 30 & 31st

Wednesday January 30

#1 Memphis (19-0) at Houston (15-3) - After getting past Gonzaga, the Tigers have just a few challenges left. There's the Tennessee game of course, and Alabama-Birmingham will be tough on the road. But their 3rd hardest game left may be Wednesday when they travel to Houston. The Cougars have quietly been putting together a decent record; the few teams they've lost to (Virginia Commonwealth, Massachusetts, and Arizona) are solid. They haven't beaten anyone very good, though, save Kentucky during the Wildcats' swoon. This isn't a throwback to the Drexler-Olajuwan days, but they aren't a team to overlook on their home court.

#2 Kansas (20-0) at Kansas State (14-4) - One of the Jayhawks' tougher tests in Big 12 play will be on the road vs. K State. The Wildcats' pre-conference schedule was particularly weak, which is why they aren't in the SportsRatings Top 25, but they've performed well overall and are the only undefeated team in Big 12 play other than Kansas. Their best win so far was a demolishing of Texas A&M that knocked the Aggies out of the SportsRatings Top 25, and a win Wednesday would be much, much bigger.

#11 Texas (16-3) at Texas A&M (16-4) - Basically, the Aggies want to stanch the bleeding of a three-game losing streak which saw them fall by 15 to Texas Tech, 21 to Kansas State, and then in five overtimes to Baylor. A win over Oklahoma State took them out of the tailspin, and a win over Texas would reverse their momentum.

#19 Vanderbilt (17-3) at #16 Mississippi (15-3) - Surprisingly, though both these teams are rated nationally, they are each just 2-3 in SEC play. Comparing common opponents, the Rebels get the edge: they lost at Tennessee by 2, while Vandy fell by 20 to the Volunteers; and while Mississippi edged Florida by a bucket, Vanderbilt lost last week by 22 to the Gators. That and the Rebel home court suggest the Commodores will likely be singing the blues Wednesday night.

Texas-Arlington (14-4) at #25 Sam Houston State (15-3) - There are three NCAA-worthy teams in the West Division of the Southland Conference alone: the teams above and Stephen F. Austin. Texas-Arlington plays both of the other two this week and deserves a top 25 slot if they make it through the week unscathed.

Thursday January 31

#14 Indiana (17-2) at #10 Wisconsin (16-3) - The Hoosiers were a bit overrated by the national polls, as seen by a home loss to depleted UConn. The Badgers, on the other hand, dropped a conference road game to a good team—something that's going to happen occasionally to the best of teams. Indiana has yet to prove it can beat a top 25 team. They'll get the chance Thursday, but they'll have to do it on the road, and Wisconsin rarely loses at the Kohl Center.

College Basketball Power Ratings updates for 1/27/2008

Power rating updates for games through 1/27/2008. I'll be updating my power ratings twice weekly now, after games on Thursday (since Friday rarely has important games) and after Sunday's games (since that's when the polls come out and is the de facto "end of week" for college basketball).

Points-only power rating, top ten as of 1/27/2008:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   W/L rank
1.  Kansas                    20-0     28.01       2
2.  Duke                      17-1     25.43       3
3.  Memphis                   19-0     25.10       1
4.  North Carolina            19-1     24.25       5
5.  UCLA                      18-2     21.32       9
6.  Tennessee                 17-2     20.82       4
7.  West Virginia             15-5     20.67      45
8.  Xavier                    17-4     20.22      17
9.  Georgetown                16-2     19.96      11
10. Marquette                 14-4     18.90      16

Kansas is #1, as they were last week, several points ahead of #2 Duke and #3 Memphis. Notice the same three top the Win/Loss power rating, except in a different order. The consensus order would probably be Kansas, Memphis, Duke if I combined the ratings in some way.

The top six teams here are also top ten in the Win/Loss ratings. West Virginia is the sore thumb here; their game outcomes haven't lived up to their average quality of play. But some of their high rating is due to a couple of early blowouts: 106-41 over #335 Prairie View and 110-44 over #339 Maryland Eastern Shore. They did defeated Marquette by 15 and Syracuse by 20.

Here is the current top ten in the Win/Loss ratings, where score doesn't matter:

#   Team                      rec      Rating   Pts rank
1.  Memphis                   19-0     39.85       3
2.  Kansas                    20-0     37.49       1
3.  Duke                      17-1     27.79       2
4.  Tennessee                 17-2     25.15       6
5.  North Carolina            19-1     23.51       4
6.  Washington St.            17-2     23.28      13
7.  Texas                     16-3     20.47      14
8.  Michigan St.              18-2     18.83      17
9.  UCLA                      18-2     18.63       5
10. Drake                     18-1     18.32      23

Last week Kansas was #1 in both rating systems, but Memphis' win over Gonzaga gave them some extra points. Since neither team has a loss, their aggregate rating is the sum of their wins, and Memphis' wins over Georgetown and USC give them a slight advantage over the Jayhawks. Kansas' best wins are over Arizona and Oklahoma, and Memphis has defeated both those teams as well.

Still, both are well ahead of #3 Duke, since every team from then on has a loss. Tennessee has an impressive rating for a 2-loss team; they are currently #1 in the RPI rankings. #10 Drake rates only 23rd in the Points-only system, which is still quite respectable. Their schedule has not been very tough, but they are now one of only five teams remaining with one or fewer losses.

Georgetown-West Virginia: Ewing's block clean? or goal-tending?

You make the call. With six seconds left, West Virginia inbounded and got a clear drive to the basket, and DeSean Butler finger-rolled the ball up toward the basket...only to have Patrick Ewing Jr. swat the ball away, allowing Georgetown to escape with a 1-point win. Naturally Mountaineers coach Bob Huggins didn't like the call, nor did the home crowd.

Clearly, the ball was not still on its way up; it had reached the apex and was possibly slightly on its way down. You can see it hang in the air on some of the replays. But whether or not it hard started downward enough to be counted as goal tending is questionable. For goaltending to be called, the ball has to be higher than the rim, on its way down, and have a chance of making it into the basket (NCAA rulebook section 32). The call is also not reviewable.

 

It's hard to tell in slow motion whether the ball had started descending. At regular speed? I wouldn't want to have to make this call in front of a partisan crowd, with the game on the line like that.

My thought is that, technically, the basket should have counted. The ball hung in the air and there was enough time between the release and Ewing's block that the ball probably started on its way down, maybe by a centimeter or two. But I don't blame the officials at all for the no-call at full speed. And even if they'd been able to review it under the standard of "indisputable video evidence" I don't think they could overturn it.

College Basketball top 25 for week 12 (1/27/2008)

A lot of upsets—mainly in the lower 15 spots—cause a major reshuffling of the top 25 this week. But with quality wins and losses becoming more numerous, there is less movement per loss. Most teams that lost during the week fell only a couple of spots.

In the top ten, Tennessee and Washington State fall to #6 and #7 after losing to Kentucky and Arizona respectively; each has a 17-2 record, but the Volunteers have several more impressive wins. Wisconsin also falls two spots, to #10, after dropping a road game to Purdue.

Moving up due to this activity are: UCLA, now #4, jumping ahead of #5 North Carolina, as the Bruins have defeated two top ten teams while the Tar Heels have no victories over top 25 opponents; Michigan State, up a notch to #8; and Georgetown, who moves from #12 to #9 after a controversial win over West Virginia.

Memphis remains #1 after beating Gonzaga. #2 Kansas, like North Carolina, has no top 25 wins. They don't have any losses, though, and they make up for their lack of big wins by beating teams like Nebraska (who is 11-6) by 35 points. Still, if Memphis lost I might be tempted to jump #3 Duke ahead of the Jayhawks, especially if they can beat UNC on the road in a few weeks.

The SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 for Week 12 (games through 1/27/2008)

lw    #  Team           rec  losses; wins vs. top 25
1     1. Memphis        19-0 wGtown+14
2     2. Kansas         20-0
3     3. Duke           17-1 L=PittOT;w=Marq+4,wWisc+24
7     4. UCLA           18-2 L USC-9,L Texas-2;w=MichSt+5,wWashSt+7
6     5. N. Carolina    19-1 L Mary-2 
4     6. Tennessee      17-2 L@KY-6,L=Tex-19;wMiss+2,wVandy+20,w@Xav+7,wWVA+2
5     7. Washington St. 17-2 L@AZ-12,L@UCLA-7;wBaylor+3
9     8. Michigan St.   18-2 L@Iowa-7,L=UCLA-5;wTexas+6
12    9. Georgetown     16-2 L@Memphis-14,L@Pitt-9;wND+19,w@WVA+1
8    10. Wisconsin      16-3 L@Purdue-12,L@Duke-24,L Marq-5;w@Texas+1
14   11. Texas          16-3 L@MO-13,L@MSU-6,L WI-1;w=TN+19,w@UCLA+2,wStM+19
15   12. St. Mary's     17-2 L@SoILL-15,L@Texas-19;wDrake+6
16   13. Drake          18-1 L@St.Mary's-6
11   14. Indiana        17-2 L UConn-5,L=Xavier-15
22   15. Butler         19-2 L@WriSt-1,L@CleveSt-4
13   16. Mississippi    15-3 L@MissSt-20,L@Aub-3,L@Tenn-2;wFLA+2
     17. Florida        18-3 L FSU-14,L@OSU-13,L@Miss-2;wVandy+22
     18. Xavier         17-4 L@MiOH-2,L@Tpl-19,L@ASU-22,L TN-7;wIN+15,wDay+26 
17   19. Vanderbilt     17-3 L@KentuckyOT,L@FLA-22,L@Tenn-20
10   20. Dayton         14-4 L@Rich-17,@GMas-11,@MA-11,@Xav-26;wPitt+25,wRI+9
23   21. Rhode Island   17-3 L@StL-7,L@BC-4,L@Dayton-9
20   22. Baylor         16-3 L Ark-7,L OK-6,L WashSt-3;w=ND+4
25   23. Marquette      14-4 L@Conn-16,@Lou-20,@WVA-15,L=Duke-4;w@WI-5,wND+26
19   24. Pittsburgh     16-4 L@Rut-13,@Cin-3,@Day-25,@Vil-1;w=DukeOT,wGtown+9
     25t Sam Houston St 15-3 L@LamarOT,L SELA-3,L@SDSU-1ot;wSFAustin+2
     25t Notre Dame     14-4 L=GT-1,=Bay-4,@Mar-26,@GTown-19;w@Vil+10,wWVA+13
out:
21       Steph.F.Austin 15-3 L@NichStOT,L@TTech-16,L@SamH-2
24       West Virginia  14-5 L OK-6,L@Lou-9,L@ND-13,L GTown-2,L=TN-2;wMarq+15
18       Villanova      13-5 L@Rut-12,@Dep-8,@Cin-3,L=NCSt-1,L ND-10;wPitt+1

 
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week

Drake continues to rack up the wins, the most recent to in-state rival Northern Iowa, and is now 18-1 and #13, behind 17-2 St. Mary's and #11 Texas. The Longhorns are just behind Wisconsin, who beat them by a point in Austin.

Indiana's surprise home loss to Connecticut drops them three spots to #14; they stay one spot ahead of Butler, who has more wins but losses to worse teams. By not losing this week, the 19-2 Bulldogs take advantage of losses by several other teams in the lower half of the rankings to move up seven spots to #15.

Among those teams losing were #16 Mississippi and #19 Vanderbilt. The Rebels lost big at rival Mississippi State, while Vanderbilt fell hard to Florida; this pops the 18-3 Gators into the rankings at #17, ahead of Vanderbilt but behind Mississippi, who beat them narrowly earlier in the year.

Dayton was a double loser this week, to Xavier and then to Richmond. They still have two top 25 wins, however, so they stay in despite the crushing defeats. They settle just ahead of #21 Rhode Island, one of the teams they beat, and a few spots behind Xavier, who enters at #18.

Baylor drops two spots after losing, but picks up a top 25 win by virtue of Notre Dame's entry. The Irish defeated former #18 Villanova; they have losses to the #22 Bears and to #23 Marquette, so they only enter at #25, tied with 15-3 Sam Houston State, who is this week's Southland conference representative after knocking Stephen F. Austin out of the rankings. Also falling out are Villanova, who lost twice, and West Virginia, who picked up their fifth loss against Georgetown.

#24 Pittsburgh is an unusual case. The Panthers have two bad losses (losses to teams with losing records are underlined in red), but they also have two wins over top ten opponents—the only team other than UCLA that can claim the latter.

Five (5!) overtimes: Baylor beats Texas A&M 116-110

Wow. That's the only word for it.

Baylor travelled to College Station Wednesday night to take on Texas A&M. Not much was on line apart from bragging rights in the polls and positioning for in the Big 12 race, so this wasn't slated to be game of the year by any means. It definitely became one of the season's best so far, however.

What was scheduled to be a 40-minute game went 65 minutes when all was said and done, and both teams went well into the rare triple-digit territory, with Baylor prevailing 116-110.

Curtis Jerrells scored 36 points—20 of them from the free throw line—to lead the Bears to the win. Bryan Davis' 30 points and 14 rebounds weren't quite enough to save the Aggies, who suffered their third straight loss. Nine players in all scored in double figures, four for Baylor and five for Texas A&M; similarly, nine players fouled out of the game, five for Baylor and four for A&M.

In regulation, the two halves were mirror images, with A&M leading 35-29 at the break and Baylor outscoring them by a similar tally in the 2nd half. The Bears were up by two before A&M put the game into overtime on a dunk by Donald Sloan. The teams scored 12, 4, 10, and 9 in the first four overtimes before Jerrells scored nine points in the final period, 7 on free throws, to finally end the contest.

Both teams shot poorly from the field, with Baylor hitting 36% and only 7 of 34 from 3-point land. The Aggies' 3-point shooting was even worse (4 of 23) though they shot slightly better overall at 37%.

The Bears were ranked #21 in the SportsRatings Top 25 and the Aggies had just fallen out after two crushing defeats. This home game was their chance to get back into the mix, while Baylor hoped to prove to the AP pollsters that they should be ranked highter than A&M. The Bears had just inched into AP's poll at #25 last week, their first ranking since 1969.

Overtime recap

Here's a recap of each overtime and how it led into the next:

Regulation: The Bears led 64-62 before Sloan's dunk forced overtime #1.

1st overtime: Baylor again led by two with seconds left when Dominique Kirk tied the game at 76 on a tip-in for Texas A&M.

2nd overtime: Only four points were scored by each team; the game was tied and A&M had the ball, but Baylor's Kevin Rogers blocked the potential game-winner. Rogers had 19 points and 18 rebounds.

3rd overtime: A&M took a five point lead in with two minutes left, but Jerrells scored six points in the final minute to make it 90-90.

4th overtime: Baylor took the lead this time, but A&M kept coming back, chipping away at it with three free throws and and a tying layup by Davis.

5th overtime: Jerrells made three free throws, made a layup, and hit four more free throws to ice the Baylor victory. In all, Jerrells was 20 of 24 from the line; Baylor as a team shot 83% from the line (39 of 47), while A&M hit only 36 of 59 for 61%.

SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 through 1/20

And then there were two—undefeated teams, that is, since former #1 North Carolina fell to Maryland at home after surviving a scare against Georgia Tech mid-week. #4 UCLA and #5 Dayton also suffered upsets so the entire top five is rearranged.

The Memphis Tigers become only the 2nd #1 team of the season. Their win over Georgetown provides the difference between them and #2 Kansas, who has not a top 25 victory but has been dominant over its light schedule. At #3, Duke would almost certainly be #1 if they had defeated Pittsburgh in overtime. They have two wins over top 25 foes and knock Clemson out of the rankings this week. #4 Tennessee has an even better wins résumé, but their loss to Texas was a blowout. Washington State hops back into the top 5 where they were before the loss to UCLA.

Speaking of the Bruins, they fell at home to USC and slide to #7, one spot behind the aforementioned Tar Heels, who as of next week won't have a top 25 win to their name. So don't look for them to regain much ground until they host Duke on February 6th.

Wisconsin keeps moving up. They're at #8 and leading the Big Ten; #9 Michigan State is a game back in the conference due to their loss to Iowa; #11 Indiana is also undefeated in Big Ten play and with only one loss could move up big when they play the Badgers in a few weeks. Dayton falls to #10 after losing to Massachusetts, but still holds wins over Pitt and Rhode Island.

The SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 for Week 11 (games through 1/20/2008)

lw    #  Team           rec  losses; wins vs. top 25
2     1. Memphis        17-0 wGtown+14
3     2. Kansas         18-0
6     3. Duke           15-1 L=PittOT;w=Marq+4,wWisc+24,wClemson+13
7     4. Tennessee      16-1 L=Tex-19;wMiss+2
9     5. Washington St. 16-1 L@UCLA-7;wBaylor+3
1     6. N. Carolina    18-1 L Mary-2;w@ClemsonOT
4     7. UCLA           16-2 L USC-9,L Texas-2;w=MichSt+5,wWashSt+7
12    8. Wisconsin      15-2 L@Duke-24,L Marq-5;w@Texas+1
13    9. Michigan St.   16-2 L@Iowa-7,L=UCLA-5;wTexas+6
5    10. Dayton         14-2 L@GMason-11,L@Mass-11;wPitt+25,wRI+9
15   11. Indiana        16-1 L=Xavier-15
8    12. Georgetown     14-2 L@Memphis-14,L@Pitt-9
10   13. Mississippi    15-2 L@Aub-3,L@Tenn-2;w=Clemson+3
19   14. Texas          14-3 L@MO-13,L@MSU-6,L WI-1;w=TN+19,w@UCLA+2,wStM+19
20   15. St. Mary's     15-2 L@SIU-15,L@Texas-19;wDrake+6
21   16. Drake          16-1 L@St.Mary's-6
14   17. Vanderbilt     17-2 L@KentuckyOT,L@Tenn-20
25   18. Villanova      13-3 L@Depaul-8,L@Cincy-3,L=NCState-1;wPitt+1
17   19. Pittsburgh     15-3 L@Cincy-3,L@Dayton-25,L@Vill-1;w=DukeOT,wGtown+9
     20. Baylor         15-2 L Ark-7,L WashSt-3 
     21. Steph.F.Austin 15-2 L@NichStOT,L@TTech-16
22   22. Butler         17-2 L@WriSt-1,L@CleveSt-4
23   23. Rhode Island   15-3 L@StL-7,L@BC-4,L@Dayton-9
     24. West Virginia  14-4 L OK-6,L@ND-13,L@Lou-9,L=Tenn-2;wMarq+15
11   25. Marquette      13-4 L@UConn-16,L@Lou-20,L@WVA-15,L=Duke-4;w@Wisc-5

out:
16       Texas A&M      15-3 L@TTech-15,L@KState-21,@Ariz-11
18       Miami FL       14-3 L Winthrop-6,L@BC-10,L@NCStOT
24       Clemson        14-4 L@Charl-10,L=Miss-3,L UNCot,L@Duke-13
 
 
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week

Georgetown once again is knocked out of the top ten by a ranked team, this time Pittsburgh. The Hoyas have no big wins to their credit, but no ugly losses. Mississippi also slides out of the top ten after losing to Auburn.

Texas, St. Mary's, and Drake take advantage of the upsets all around them and all move up five spots. Texas has three big wins, one of them over St. Mary's, who is the only team to beat the Drake Bulldogs this season. With the Missouri Valley having an off year after several strong seasons, Drake has a fair chance of winning out and getting a high seed in the NCAA tournament. Vanderbilt drops three spots to #17 after losing their showdown with Tennessee to the tune of 20 points.

Pittsburgh followed up their big win over Georgetown with a three point loss at Cincinnati, a team that beat #18 Villanova by the same margin. Pitt drops a few spots for the split performance.

Texas A&M and Miami both lost twice during the week and thus fall out of favor in the SportsRatings Top 25. The Aggies in particular looked weak, losing by 15 and 21 points, while the Hurricanes dropped an overtime game to NC State. Marquette also lost twice, but barely hung on at #25.

Clemson lost to Duke, their third loss to a ranked team and fourth overall, and fell out as well. Butler and Rhode Island both were upset, but with such a rush for the exit this week they weathered the storm and remained where they were, at #22 and #23 respectively.

New to the top 25 this week: Baylor returns at #20; they're 15-2 and played Washington State close. Stephen F. Austin debuts at #21. The Lumberjacks don't have a tough schedule to get any big wins from, and they have a rather poor loss on the books to Nicholls State, but they deserve their time in the sun even if they won't move up very quickly from here. And West Virginia comes in at #24, just ahead of Marquette, whom they beat a few weeks ago. Notre Dame could have been in this mix, too, as they beat West Virginia, but they lost big to Georgetown; they'll have to wait and keep winning, like everyone else.

Going Undefeated: Odds for Kansas and Memphis

With only two teams left undefeated in college basketball, it's time to look at the odds of Kansas and/or Memphis going unbeaten for the rest of the season.

NOTE: Memphis' odds have been updated here. NOTE #2: Memphis-Tennessee odds/game preview here.

NOTE #3: Championship game - Kansas vs. Memphis - analysis and odds here!

First off, what do we mean by season? If we mean the entire season, then no team has accomplished this since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers. If we mean undefeated before the NCAA tournament, we have to go back to the 1991 UNLV Runnin' Rebels. If we relax things quite a bit and say: the regular season, before any conference tournaments, then the 2004 St. Joseph's Hawks went 27-0 before losing in the Atlantic 10 tournament to Xavier.

Using my game-strength paired-comparison system to come up with odds for each game, I've projected the rest of the season for the three teams. I'll compare my results to Ken Pomeroy's projections which he updates on his site.

Kansas Jayhawks (17-0)

Date        Game                     W/L    %
Sat Jan 19  KU at  Missouri          W    71.6
Wed Jan 23  KU vs. Iowa St.          W    100
Sat Jan 26  KU vs. Nebraska          W    94.5
Wed Jan 30  KU at  Kansas St.        W    72.9
Sat Feb 2   KU at  Colorado          W    97.1
Mon Feb 4   KU vs. Missouri          W    89.6
Sat Feb 9   KU vs. Baylor            W    98.5
Mon Feb 11  KU at  Texas             W    65.8
Sat Feb 16  KU vs. Colorado          W    100
Sat Feb 23  KU at  Oklahoma St.      W    82
Wed Feb 27  KU at  Iowa St.          W    97.2
Sat Mar 1   KU vs. Kansas St.        W    85.5
Mon Mar 3   KU vs. Texas Tech        W    89.7
Sat Mar 8   KU at  Texas A&M         W    67.5
Regular Season
Favored: 31-0   Projected: 29-2   Odds of 31-0: 11.5%
            KU vs. Nebraska          W    89.0
            KU vs. Missouri          W    81.7
            KU vs. Texas             W    75.4
Pre-NCAA
Favored: 34-0   Projected: 32-2   Odds of 34-0: 6.3%

The Jayhawks are favored in every game, and their cumulative odds project them to have only two losses through the entire season, all the way through the Big 12 tournament. Their toughest games are their only ones against ranked teams: on the road vs. Texas and Texas A&M.

Still, their cumulative odds are only about 1 in 8 of making it to the end of the regular season without an upset. Throw in the tournament, in which they'll likely face either the Longhorns or Aggies again, and they have but a 6.3% of being the first team in 17 years to enter the NCAA tournament unbeaten.

Ken Pomeroy's system puts the former odds at 26.5% currently; he's giving Kansas a 1 in 4 chance of completing their set schedule 31-0. He projects the Texas and Texas A&M games for Kansas at 73% and 77%, where I put them at 66% and 68%. When you multiply these through, a few lower-percentage games can really decrease the odds. He projects Kansas to have one loss.

How about Memphis?

Memphis Tigers (16-0)

Date        Game                     W/L    %
Sat Jan 19  Memphis vs. S. Miss      W    98.2
Wed Jan 23  Memphis at  Tulsa        W    85.7
Sat Jan 26  Memphis vs. Gonzaga      W    80.5
Wed Jan 30  Memphis at  Houston      W    86.3
Sat Feb 2   Memphis vs. UTEP         W    95.4
Wed Feb 6   Memphis vs. SMU          W    100
Sat Feb 9   Memphis vs. UCF          W    99.2
Wed Feb 13  Memphis vs. Houston      W    95.4
Sat Feb 16  Memphis at  UAB          W    75.0
Wed Feb 20  Memphis at  Tulane       W    93.7
Sat Feb 23  Memphis vs. Tennessee    W    64.1
Wed Feb 27  Memphis vs. Tulsa        W    95.1
Sat Mar 1   Memphis at  S. Miss      W    91.2
Wed Mar 5   Memphis at  SMU          W    100
Sat Mar 8   Memphis vs. UAB          W    91.5
Regular Season
Favored: 31-0   Projected: 30-1   Odds of 31-0: 18.9%
            Memphis vs. Tulane       W    97.8
            Memphis vs. Houston      W    92.1
            Memphis vs. UAB          W    83.8
Pre-NCAA
Favored: 34-0   Projected: 32-2   Odds of 34-0: 14.2%

Though the Tigers are ranked lower than Kansas in my points-based power rating, their schedule is a lot more lenient. They end up projected to go 30-1, with about a 19% chance of finishing undefeated before the Conference-USA tournament, and a 14% chance of entering the NCAA tournament unblemished.

Their toughest games are non-conference contests against Tennessee and Gonzaga, but they face both of these teams at home. Their road game against Alabama-Birmingham might be the one that gets them, so circle your calendars for February 16.

Ken Pomeroy gives them a whopping 40% chance of going 31-0, about twice the odds my system yields. Each game percentage is higher in his projections, with the Tennessee game at 80% being their toughest hurdle.

Conclusions

If my odds are correct, the chance for both teams to go undefeated into the NCAA tournament is less than 1%. The odds of two teams facing each other, undefeated, for the NCAA title are incredibly small, it's almost unimaginable.

North Carolina's loss at home to a Maryland team they were heavily favored to beat shows how difficult it is to complete an undefeated season these days. More talent, more parity, longer schedules, and conference tournaments all conspire against perfect records. Kansas and Memphis are both half-way there. I don't expect either of them to make it, but it will be interesting to see how far they can go. The basketball season is always a bit more interesting when there are one or more undefeated teams remaining.

College Basketball Power Ratings - Points, Win/Loss

I've finally had time to start the two basic power ratings (Points and Win/Loss) for college basketball. I will be adding a few other varieties soon. But for now, here are the top 25 in each category.

Points power rating, through 1/16

#   Team                      rec      Rating
1.  Kansas                    17-0     27.27
2.  Duke                      14-1     25.85
3.  North Carolina            18-0     25.03
4.  Memphis                   16-0     24.37
5.  West Virginia             12-4     22.94
6.  Marquette                 13-2     22.38
7.  Tennessee                 14-1     22.27
8.  UCLA                      16-1     21.95
9.  Wisconsin                 14-2     20.83
10. Xavier                    14-4     19.93
11. Georgetown                13-2     19.43
12. Indiana                   14-1     18.64
13. Texas                     13-3     18.26
14. Pittsburgh                15-2     18.25
15. Washington St.            14-1     17.90
16. Gonzaga                   13-4     17.65
17. Texas A&M                 15-2     17.62
18. Stanford                  13-3     17.14
19. Duquesne                  11-4     16.94
20. Michigan St.              15-2     16.59
21. Notre Dame                13-3     16.58
22. Arizona                   11-5     16.11
23. Connecticut               11-4     16.04
24. Drake                     15-1     15.97
25. Clemson                   14-3     15.92

Not too many surprises there. A pretty high correlation with Sagarin's "Pure Points" and Pomeroy's ratings. Duquesne ranks a lot higher here than in Pomeroy's.

Win/Loss power rating through 1/16

#   Team                      rec      Rating
1.  North Carolina            18-0     34.69
2.  Tennessee                 14-1     27.81
3.  Duke                      14-1     25.21
4.  Kansas                    17-0     24.79
5.  Memphis                   16-0     23.79
6.  Pittsburgh                15-2     22.61
7.  Texas                     13-3     21.73
8.  UCLA                      16-1     20.80
9.  Washington St.            14-1     20.29
10. Marquette                 13-2     18.90
11. Wisconsin                 14-2     17.76
12. Butler                    16-1     16.14
13. Michigan St.              15-2     16.11
14. Dayton                    14-2     15.36
15. Mississippi               15-1     13.44
16. St. Mary's                14-2     13.35
17. Vanderbilt                16-1     13.05
18. Rhode Island              15-2     13.03
19. Drake                     15-1     12.94
20. Indiana                   14-1     11.05
21. Massachusetts             12-4     10.86
22. Villanova                 12-3      8.21
23. Xavier                    14-4      7.96
24. Stephen F. Austin         13-2      7.95
25. Oregon                    12-4      7.90

Considering only wins and losses, North Carolina is a firm #1. Tennessee, with only a loss to Texas (and an algorithm that doesn't care it was by 19 points), places 2nd, just ahead of Duke (who lost to Pitt in overtime). The two other undefeated teams follow at 4th and 5th.

Then, Pitt and Texas (the only teams to beat Duke and Tennessee) are 6th and 7th, with UCLA (loser to Texas) and Washington State (loser to UCLA) following in what makes a pretty logical order. Marquette is one place ahead of Wisconsin, whom they beat.

SportsRatings College Basketball top 25 week 10 - through 1/13

UCLA powers up a spot to #4 in the latest SportsRatings Top 25 after beating former #4 Washington State  81-74 on Saturday. They're within striking distance of their best ranking of the year, which was #2 before their loss to Texas.

Standing in their way, though, are the three remaining undefeated teams: North Carolina, Memphis, and Kansas. Of the three, only Memphis has a win over a top ten team, and Kansas hasn't beaten anyone in the top 25. North Carolina has an overtime win over #24 Clemson. As the conference schedules heat up, UNC will be tested often, but Jayhawks less so as they play Texas and Texas A&M only once each. Memphis has very few hurdles left in trying to become the first undefeated team since UNLV in 1990.

The Dayton Flyers move up to #5. I wasn't planning on moving them up very quickly after they soared to #7 after thrashing Pittsburgh, but they beat another ranked team (Rhode Island) and that keeps them just ahead of Duke. Still, they have the only loss to an unranked team among top ten squads, so progress from here may be slow.

Filling in the gaps in the rest of the top ten are Tennessee—the Volunteers handed Mississippi their first loss—and Georgetown, who still has no top 25 wins. Washington State stays in the top ten at #9; like Georgetown, they have only lost on the road to a top five team. And Mississippi stays where they were last week, at #10, despite their loss. With Tennessee now ahead of them, there's no reason to move them down for a 2-point road loss.

The SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 for Week 10 (games through 1/13/2008)

lw    #  Team           rec  losses; wins vs. top 25
1     1. N. Carolina    17-0 w@ClemsonOT
2     2. Memphis        15-0 wGtown+14
3     3. Kansas         16-0
5     4. UCLA           16-1 L Texas-2;w=MichSt+5,wWashSt+7
7     5. Dayton         14-1 L@GMason-11;wPitt+25,wRI+9
8     6. Duke           13-1 L=PittOT;w=Marq+4,wWisc+24
12    7. Tennessee      14-1 L=Tex-19;wMiss+2
11    8. Georgetown     13-1 L@Memphis-14
4     9. Washington St. 14-1 L@UCLA-7
10   10. Mississippi    14-1 L@Tenn-2;w=Clemson+3
13   11. Marquette      13-2 L@WVA-15,L=Duke-4;w@Wisc-5
14   12. Wisconsin      13-2 L@Duke-24,L Marq-5;w@Texas+1
6    13. Michigan St.   14-2 L@Iowa-7,L=UCLA-5;wTexas+6
9    14. Vanderbilt     16-1 L@KentuckyOT
16   15. Indiana        14-1 L=Xavier-15
17   16. Texas A&M      15-1 L@Ariz-11
20   17. Pittsburgh     14-2 L@Dayton-25,L@Vill-1;w=DukeOT
22   18. Miami FL       14-1 L Winthrop-6
15   19. Texas          13-3 L@MO-13,L@MSU-6,L WI-1;w=TN+19,w@UCLA+2,wStM+19
23   20. St. Mary's     14-2 L@SIU-15,L@Texas-19;wDrake+6
24   21. Drake          14-1 L@St.Mary's-6
     22. Butler         16-1 L@WriSt-1
18   23. Rhode Island   15-2 L@BC-4,L@Dayton-9
21   24. Clemson        13-3 L@Charl-10,L=Miss-3,L UNCot
19   25. Villanova      11-3 L@Depaul-8,L@Cincy-3,L=NCState-1;wPitt+1

out:
25       Sam Houston St 13-2 L SELA-3,L@SDSU-1ot
 
key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week

Marquette and Wisconsin edge up a few spots to 11th and 12th; each has lost to Duke, while Wisconsin lost to Marquette. Michigan State, inexplicable losers to Iowa on Saturday night, drop to #13, just ahead of Vanderbilt, who lost in double overtime to struggling Kentucky. It's a judgement call whether a double overtime loss to a mediocre team is worse than a sound loss to a decent team, so Vanderbilt is essentially in a three-way tie with #15 Indiana and #16 Texas A&M. Who moves up fastest from here depends on who gets some quality wins.

Pittsburgh and Miami move up, taking advantage of losses by several other teams: Texas, who remains above the St. Mary's team they had previously thrashed; Rhode Island, who lost to Dayton; Clemson, who hangs on despite losing to Charlotte because two of their losses are to top 10 teams, and Villanova, who stays in the top 25 only due to their quality win over Pitt.

Sam Houston State falls out after getting their 2nd loss. Butler, the only 1-loss team left that wasn't in the top 25, debuts this week, just behind #21 Drake, who is off to their best start in the school's history.

This week's matchups include #8 Georgetown at #17 Pittsburgh, #14 Vanderbilt at #7 Tennessee, and #25 Clemson at #6 Duke.

Upset: Iowa Hawkeyes 43, Michigan State Spartans 36

Tony Freeman hit a 3-pointer to put Iowa up 39-34 with a minute left and the Hawks held on to beat the sixth-ranked Spartans 43-36 in Iowa City.

Freeman scored 22 points and shut down Drew Neitzel, holding him to 10 points as Iowa's tough defense and awkward offense kept the game extremely low-scoring throughout.

Iowa's 7-footers played well at times, with Seth Gorney playing good defense and rebounding well, and Kurt Loobey energizing the crowd with a pair of alley-oop dunks, but it was Freeman that keyed the Hawkeyes on both offense and defense. Iowa shot poorly from the outside, making only 5 of 21 3-pointers, but their defense frustrated the Spartans.

Michigan State jumped to a 4-0 lead and slowly extended it to 18-9 midway through the first period. But that was the end of their scoring for the half; traveling calls, fouls, and missed shots kept them scoreless for more than eight minutes. Iowa's man-to-man defense disrupted the flow of their offense, and Freeman kept Neitzel in check after he'd made two early shots.

Iowa couldn't take much advantage on the other end, though; the Spartan defense was tough as well, and Iowa couldn't make the open shots it had. Leading scorer Justin Johnson went 1-11 on field goals and 0-7 on 3-pointers for the night.

At the half it seemed like one of those anamalies that would resolve itself in the second period; more shots would fall, the tempo would increase, Michigan State would assert itself on offense—but none of those things happened. If anything, the second half was even slower. Iowa took a 28-23 lead, which the Spartans cut to one at 29-28 with about 10 minutes remaining.

Michigan State tried to pressure Iowa only a few times. On Wednesday the Ohio State full-court press destroyed the Hawkeyes, who lost by 31; the Spartans put some token pressure on, but let up before they could get any turnovers from it. As it was, whether Iowa had 20 seconds or 5 seconds to run their offense, the result was mostly the same—a missed shot. But increasingly Iowa was getting to the free throw line, where they went 16 of 29. Michigan State went to the line only 4 times, making just one.

The Spartan offense struggled to the end, and failed to catch a break when Looby may have touched a ball that was still on the rim, and after Freeman's 3-pointer Iowa started to pull away with foul shots, including an intentional foul called on Raymar Morgan. Cyrus Tate missed his free throws but played well underneath for Iowa, finishing with nine points. Morgan scored 10 for the Spartans.

For the game, Iowa shot 28% and Michigan State 31% from the field, and 24% and 25% on three-pointers respectively. The Spartans were held to less than half their season average point total of 77.

The win was by far the best so far for new Iowa head coach Todd Lickliter, as his team had struggled to a 7-9 mark this year and had yet to win a Big Ten contest.

SportsRatings College Basketball top 25 - week 9 (1/6)

Villanova is the only new entrant in the top 25 after beating former #8 Pittsburgh by a point. The Panthers suffered their 2nd loss in three games and are minus two starters for now. They fall to #20.

The top seven teams remain the same as of last Sunday's action. #1 North Carolina held on for an overtime win over #21 Clemson, giving them their first win over a current top 25 squad. Duke moves up to #8 and 15-0 Vanderbilt to #9.

Marquette, upset by West Virginia, falls to #13, just ahead of Wisconsin, whom they beat in Madison. Moving up to replace them is Mississippi. All of the six remaining undefeated teams (as of Sunday) are now in the top ten.

The SportsRatings College Basketball Top 25 for Week 9 (games through 1/6/2008)

lw    #  Team           rec  losses; wins vs. top 25
1     1. N. Carolina    15-0 w@ClemsonOT
2     2. Memphis        13-0 wGtown+14
3     3. Kansas         14-0
4     4. Washington St. 13-0 w@Baylor+3
5     5. UCLA           14-1 L Texas-2;w=MichSt+5
6     6. Michigan St.   13-1 L=UCLA-5;wTexas+6
7     7. Dayton         12-1 L@GMason-11;wPitt+25
9     8. Duke           11-1 L=PittOT;w=Marq+4,wWisc+24
11    9. Vanderbilt     15-0
13   10. Mississippi    13-0 w=Clemson+3
12   11. Georgetown     11-1 L@Memphis-14
14   12. Tennessee      12-1 L=Tex-19
10   13. Marquette      11-2 L@WVA-15,L=Duke-4;w@Wisc-5
15   14. Wisconsin      12-2 L@Duke-24,L Marq-5;w@Texas+1
16   15. Texas          11-2 L@MSU-6,LWisc-1;w=Tenn+19,w@UCLA+2,wStMarys+19
17   16. Indiana        12-1 L=Xavier-15
20   17. Texas A&M      14-1 L@Ariz-11
21   18. Rhode Island   14-1 L@BC-4
     19. Villanova      11-2 L@Depaul-8,L=NCState-1;wPitt+1
8    20. Pittsburgh     12-2 L@Dayton-25,L@Vill-1;w=DukeOT
19   21. Clemson        11-2 L=Miss-3,L UNCot
23   22. Miami FL       13-1 L Winthrop-6
18   23. St. Mary's     12-2 L@SIU-15,L@Texas-19;wDrake+6
24   24. Drake          12-1 L@St.Mary's-6
25   25. Sam Houston St 12-1 L@SDSU-1ot

out:
22       Baylor         11-2 L Ark-7,L WashSt-3
 

key: Loss to ranked team
     Loss to unranked team
     Loss to team with losing record
     Win over ranked team
     Win over ranked team who falls out this week

There was little movement in the second half of the rankings as well. Texas beat St. Mary's quite handily, the Gaels' second loss, sending them down five spots, just ahead of Drake. The Bulldogs lost to St. Mary's in their second game. The Longhorns have three wins over top 25 opponents, but for now they're stuck behind Wisconsin.

Villanova jumps in just ahead of Pitt. Only Baylor, who lost to Arkansas, falls out of the top 25 this week. There are only two 1-loss teams than remain unranked: Butler and Stephen F. Austin. Both will likely enter the rankings next week if they continue to win.

Weekend preview Jan. 3: Stanford and Villanova get their chance

Two intra-top 25 games and two with ranked teams vs. 1-loss teams highlight this weekend's action.

#5 UCLA (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-1)

The Cardinal have a chance to break into the top 25 in a big way Thursday night. With only one loss this year—unfortunately to 7-4 Siena—Stanford has made it into the AP poll but needs an impressive home win against the Bruins to convince me. They've been tough at home but not overwhelming. Siena travels to Memphis the same night, hoping to dethrone another undefeated team and make Stanford's loss look more acceptable.

#18 St. Mary's (12-1) vs. #16 Texas (12-2)

The Gaels and the Longhorns meet on Saturday after both clubs hit some snags in recent weeks. St. Mary's has more to win; a victory would legitimize their recent AP poll appearance, and probably give them an encore. Texas wants to defend the home court following their loss to Wisconsin last week.

#8 Pittsburgh (12-1) vs. Villanova (10-1)

10-1 Villanova has played a pretty easy non-conference schedule. They've lost to North Carolina State by a point and beat LSU by the same; it's hard to support a case for their fairly high AP ranking. But they'll have the chance to prove themselves at home Sunday against Pitt, who is now shorthanded two starters.

#1 North Carolina (14-0) vs. #19 Clemson (12-1)

Two teams that are ranked identically in my top 25 and AP's top 25 match up on Sunday. Clemson has home court advantage going for it, as well as UNC's loss of several reserves over the last few games. The Tigers' only loss is to undefeated Mississippi.

Predictions

UCLA beats Stanford in a pretty close game. Texas mauls the Gaels. Pitt handles Villanova fairly easily. UNC survives a scare vs. Clemson. Sorry, upset-lovers.