Upsets and losses plagued the AP Top 25 which had a "shakeup" according to ESPN, but here at the Dance Chance the effects were surprisingly muted. Obviously, teams who avoided the upset bug, got stronger because of it. The effects on other teams was sometimes counter-intuitive. So many teams lost that the overall change was almost minor.
Neither Auburn or Duke lost and both got stronger, both adding to their 1-seed odds (Duke up 11.6%) and the Tigers hitting the mythical 100% tournament status. But the next three teams—Florida, Tennessee, and Alabama—were a bit paradoxical. The Gators lost to home to Missouri but held their 1-seed, with their odds barely budging; their subsequent 84-60 win over Texas helped assuage the loss. Tennessee, who fell at Vanderbilt by a point, actually moved up to a 1-seed and their 1-seed odds climbed! This was probably due to their solid win over Georgia prior to the loss—and the fact that so many other 1-seed candidates fell short. One of those was Alabama, who beat Kentucky on the road after a home loss to Mississippi. The Tide dropped a notch to a 2-seed while their 1-seed odds took a hit, but remained at roughly the same level as the other two SEC contenders.
Record Dance Chance
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev
1. Auburn SEC 17-1 28-3 30-1 100.0 +0.1 97.0 +3.1 1 1
2. Duke ACC 16-2 28-3 29-2 >99.9 0.0 80.5 +11.6 1 1
3. Florida SEC 16-2 25-6 26-5 99.4 +0.3 43.5 -0.6 1 1
4. Tennessee SEC 16-2 25-6 27-4 99.4 +0.8 43.7 +2.7 1 2
5. Alabama SEC 15-3 23-8 25-6 99.0 +0.3 37.7 -3.9 2 1
6. Illinois B10 13-5 23-8 25-6 98.6 +2.6 17.9 +3.3 2 3
7. Houston B12 14-3 25-6 28-3 98.2 +1.0 12.9 +0.7 2 2
8. Iowa St. B12 15-2 26-5 26-5 97.7 +1.3 13.1 -2.6 2 2
Illinois generally improved their situation, up to a 2-seed from a 3-, despite the narrow loss at Michigan State. That was forgivable—especially this week—and they beat Indiana 94-69 on the road as well. Two Big Twelve teams held their 2-seeds; Iowa State's loss to West Virginia dinged their 1-seed odds but their overall situation improved, largely due to beating Kansas handily. Houston was a rare top team that didn't lose last week and while their numbers bumped up, it wasn't by as much as one would expect. They did have a very close call at UCF, which didn't help, but they got the win as well as beating West Virginia (who subsequently beat Iowa State). The Cougars are 6-0 in the Big Twelve but haven't played any of the top teams yet.
The Cougars do face Kansas on Saturday though; the Jayhawks recovered from the loss to Iowa State to beat rival Kansas State at home, but the overall effect was negative, though they held their 3-seed. Kentucky, as noted, lost at home to Alabama but their numbers climbed, even their 1-seed odds. Beating Texas A&M 81-69 helped, but I think their previous neutral-court win over Duke is continuing to pay dividends. The Big Ten race got tighter after Michigan's overtime loss at Minnesota knocked the Wolverines down to a 3-seed. They also needed overtime to beat Northwestern at home. And look who's back: Purdue, now 7-1 in conference after road wins over Washington and Oregon. Michigan State beat Illinois and Penn State at home to extend their winning streak to 11 games, yet they stayed a 4-seed here and their 1-seed odds didn't budge. The Spartans' Strength rating remains fairly low (#17) which is holding back their future projection, with 4 or 5 more losses expected.
Record Dance Chance
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev
9. Kentucky SEC 14-4 22-9 24-7 97.1 +1.4 18.7 +0.9 3 3
10. Michigan B10 14-4 23-8 24-7 95.8 -0.9 8.0 -6.8 3 2
11. Purdue B10 15-4 23-8 24-7 95.5 +5.3 6.0 +2.2 3 4
12. Kansas B12 13-4 23-8 25-6 93.9 -0.8 4.3 -4.5 3 3
13. Michigan St. B10 16-2 24-7 25-6 92.4 +4.6 3.3 0.0 4 4
14. Marquette BE 15-3 25-6 26-5 92.1 -1.9 1.4 -4.9 4 3
15. Mississippi SEC 15-3 21-10 22-9 90.4 +14.1 3.6 +2.6 4 6
16. Mississippi St. SEC 15-3 22-9 22-9 89.0 +1.8 2.6 -1.6 4 5
Marquette wasn't spared last week as the Eagles lost at home to Xavier, following an overtime win at DePaul. This pretty much insures that the Big East won't have a team among the 1-seeds. Mississippi and Mississippi State both moved up to 4-seeds fter mixed results—intertwined since the teams played with Mississippi State prevailing at home, 84-81 in overtime. Yet it was the Rebels up over 14% due to their big win at Alabama (74-64); the road loss to the Bulldogs was expected and very close and didn't hurt them. The Bulldogs' rise was muted by their 88-66 loss at Auburn, also expected but not close at all.
Missouri was perhaps the big winner last week. They went 2-0—a rarity!—with a big road win over Florida, 83-82, and also beat Arkansas 83-65. The Tigers' tournament odds went from about 70% to 88%, their seed from an 8- to a 5-, and their negligible 1-seed odds rose over a percent (hey you take what you can get). Yet another SEC team, Texas A&M, was seemingly unharmed by losing at Kentucky; they rebounded by beating LSU and held their 5-seed. Losses are going to happen and projecting the season takes most of them into account already. In the Big Ten, Wisconsin went unbeaten against Ohio State and USC; Oregon fell to Purdue at home; and Maryland took it on the chin with a loss at Northwestern but edged Nebraska at home.
Record Dance Chance
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev
17. Missouri SEC 15-3 22-9 21-10 88.4 +18.7 1.4 +1.2 5 8
18. Texas A&M SEC 14-4 21-10 21-10 88.0 +1.2 2.8 -1.0 5 5
19. Wisconsin B10 15-3 23-8 23-8 85.9 +7.9 0.7 +0.3 5 6
20. Oregon B10 15-3 23-8 24-7 85.1 -2.4 0.2 -0.5 5 4
21. Arizona B12 11-6 21-10 22-9 82.3 +1.9 0.1 -0.3 6 5
22. Maryland B10 14-5 23-9 24-8 82.1 -5.3 0.2 -1.5 6 5
23. Gonzaga WCC 14-6 24-7 25-6 81.0 -8.5 0.0 -0.1 6 4
24. St. John's BE 16-3 24-7 26-5 80.1 +5.7 <0.1 0.0 6 7
Arizona had their first Big Twelve loss to Texas Tech, 70-54, but also beat Baylor. Gonzaga had a terrible week, losing at Oregon State in overtime then falling at home to Santa Clara. The 'Zags normally compete for a 1-seed but that hope is officially dead by our numbers. St. John's is now our #2 team in the faltering Big East; the Red Storm are now 7-1 in conference play.
Texas Tech rode the win over Arizona to jump to a 7-seed, while West Virginia's hell week (Houston, Iowa State) turned out okay as the Mountaineers beat the Cyclones. Georgia had a hell week too, and they are an interesting case as the Bulldogs lost twice but basically stayed put: their 20-11 projections didn't move, they retain a tiny 0.3% chance of getting a 1-seed, and their roughly 75% chance of making the tournament moved by a rounding error. They lost big at home to 1-seed Tennessee, but played top overall seed Auburn so close (70-68) that the overall effect of going from 14-2 to 14-4 was negligible.
Record Dance Chance
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev
25. Texas Tech B12 13-4 22-9 23-8 77.7 +7.4 <0.1 0.0 7 8
26. Georgia SEC 14-4 20-11 20-11 74.9 -0.2 0.3 0.0 7 7
27. UCLA B10 12-6 20-11 23-8 74.1 -1.5 <0.1 0.0 7 6
28. Memphis Amer 14-4 25-6 27-4 73.9 -0.3 0.0 0.0 7 7
29. West Virginia B12 13-4 21-10 22-9 73.0 +6.9 <0.1 0.0 8 9
30. Clemson ACC 15-4 24-7 25-6 69.9 +4.4 0.0 0.0 8 9
31. Connecticut BE 13-5 22-9 22-9 69.5 -6.3 0.0 -0.1 8 6
32. Louisville ACC 14-5 23-8 25-6 69.4 +3.3 0.0 0.0 8 9
Memphis fell to Temple but walked away pretty much unharmed; the Tigers hold wins over several teams that scored big upsets (Missouri, Michigan State, Ole Miss) which insulates them from surprise losses—for now, at least. They also have a win over UConn, who was upset at home by Creighton and after winning the national title two years in a row will not be a 1-seed in 2025. UCLA lost to Rutgers last week and fell to a 7-seed; they are the #8 Big Ten team here, while Clemson and Louisville are the #2 and #3 ACC team believe it or not. Both are 7-1 in conference after two wins each last week.
Vanderbilt rode their Tennessee upset to a 9-seed, while Utah State suffered only their 2nd loss of the year at UNLV. Pittsburgh dropped even further following their 3rd and 4th losses in a row (to Florida State and Clemson).
Record Dance Chance
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev
33. Vanderbilt SEC 15-3 19-12 18-13 67.9 +10.6 <0.1 0.0 9 11
34. Utah St. MWC 16-2 26-5 27-4 66.9 -5.0 0.0 0.0 9 8
35. Pittsburgh ACC 12-6 22-9 22-9 64.7 -10.6 0.0 -0.1 9 7
36. UC Irvine BW 17-2 28-4 30-2 60.7 -0.5 0.0 0.0 9 10
37. Saint Mary's WCC 16-3 24-7 26-5 60.2 +3.4 0.0 0.0 10 11p
38. Baylor B12 11-6 19-12 19-12 59.0 -14.5 <0.1 0.0 10 8
Cal-Irvine continued to win but their odds dipped a bit, as did their seed, undoubtedly due to UC San Diego's loss as the Triton's are the cornerstone of the Anteaters' résumé. St. Mary's (6-0 in conference play) narrowed the gap with Gonzaga in the WCC, while Baylor took a dive after losing twice (to Arizona and TCU).
The bubble: Last year the Mountain West had six teams but this year there is a chance the MWC is a 1-bid league (odds say 2 or 3 will makes it). San Diego State lost to UNLV but held their 10-seed, as did New Mexico who won twice. The Lobos won by 19 over Boise and 28 over Fresno, but lost earlier in the week to San Jose State (their win over Fresno was on Monday, a day after the Dance Chance period—so look for them to move up next time). Blue-blood names were not immune, either, as North Carolina and Ohio State dropped onto the play-in level. The Tar Heels lost to Stanford at home, while the Buckeyes fell to WIsconsin and Indiana.
Record Dance Chance
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev
39. San Diego St. MWC 11-5 21-8 23-6 57.4 -6.5 0.0 0.0 10 10
40. New Mexico MWC 15-4 23-8 23-8 57.2 -3.0 0.0 0.0 10 10
41. Creighton BE 12-6 20-11 21-10 57.0 +12.4 0.0 0.0 11
42. SMU ACC 14-4 24-7 27-4 55.3 +7.7 0.0 0.0 11
43. North Carolina ACC 12-7 20-12 21-11 54.3 -7.7 0.0 0.0 11p 10
44. Texas SEC 12-6 18-13 18-13 52.3 +1.4 0.0 -0.1 11p 11p
45. Xavier BE 12-7 20-11 21-10 52.2 +19.5 0.0 0.0 11p
46. Ohio St. B10 10-8 17-14 18-13 50.1 -15.7 0.0 -0.1 11p 9
Three teams jumped in this week: Creighton (after upsetting UConn), SMU (won two road games, including a 117-74 win at Miami), and Xavier (upset Marquette). This gives the Big East a respectable 5 teams in the seedings, and the ACC a total of six. Current odds say the Big East gets 4 teams in, and that the ACC ends up with 5. Texas is the 12th SEC team with the odds suggesting 11.5, so the Longhorns spot is precarious!
UC-San Diego lost their 2nd game in 3 tries and is currently the First Team Out in our standings. The Tritons may push their way back in but ultimately the Big West is pretty certainly a 1-bid league. Penn State and Nebraska hope to give the Big Ten more than its current nine teams, and the odds do favor the league getting around 10 bids. Neither team fared well last week, especially the Cornhuskers who have now lost 4 in a row (on Monday the Nittany Lions halted their 4-game skid by beating Rutgers). Oklahoma also broke a 4-game losing streak but they are following their projection to a "T" after a 13-0 start.
Record Dance Chance
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev
47. UC San Diego BW 15-4 26-6 27-5 49.2 -7.9 0.0 0.0 11
48. Penn St. B10 12-6 19-12 20-11 49.0 -0.9 0.0 0.0
49. Cincinnati B12 12-5 19-12 20-11 44.5 +2.5 0.0 0.0
50. Oklahoma SEC 14-4 18-13 16-15 44.2 -2.4 0.0 0.0
51. Drake MVC 16-2 25-5 28-2 42.7 +3.3 0.0 0.0 12 12
52. Nebraska B10 12-6 18-13 16-15 42.3 -11.9 0.0 0.0 11p
53. VCU A10 14-4 24-7 26-5 39.6 +1.6 0.0 0.0 12
54. Santa Clara WCC 13-7 20-11 19-12 37.9 +10.3 0.0 0.0
Santa Clara finds themselves on the bubble after beating Gonzaga 103-99 on the road. That's a huge win and it moved the Broncos into the Second Four Out despite also losing last week to Loyola Marymount. At 13-7 they don't have much leeway in the WCC but apparently opportunity (two games vs. St. Mary's, and Gonzaga at home) is what puts their odds at 38%.
Just below the official bubble, Bradley makes a big move up mainly due to a 118-65 win over Indiana State which boosted their Strength and roughly doubled their odds of making the tournament via at-large bid. But again, the MVC is looking like a 1-bid league so their real odds rest on winning the conference tournament (though their Strength boost improves those odds as well). Arkansas is struggling in the SEC, with 5 losses in a row and the schedule doesn't get easier.
Record Dance Chance
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev
55. Bradley MVC 16-3 25-6 27-4 37.7 +18.5 0.0 0.0
56. Arkansas SEC 11-7 17-14 16-15 37.1 -13.5 0.0 -0.1
59. Iowa B10 12-6 18-13 16-15 35.3 -15.9 0.0 0.0 11p
60. Northwestern B10 11-7 17-14 18-13 35.0 +11.9 0.0 0.0
64. Dayton A10 12-6 21-10 23-8 30.9 -16.8 0.0 0.0 12
Iowa and Northwestern went in different directions last week in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes fell from their play-in perch after losing twice in a tour of fire-ravaged Los Angeles; USC beat them 99-89 and UCLA 94-70. The Wildcats had two overtime games, beating Maryland at home and losing to Michigan on the road. The net result was a 12% boost in at-large odds. Dayton has squandered their lead in the Atlantic 10, which now belongs to VCU. The Flyers lost to George Mason and needed overtime to beat Loyola-Chicago at home.
Liberty is still the favorite in Conference USA despite a 3-3 standing following a loss to UTEP last Thursday. St. Bonaventure has lost 3 of their last 4 and their odds dropped double digits; they are also 3-3 in Atlantic 10 play. And Arizona State's fast start has fizzled during Big Twelve play; the Sun Devils have lost four in a row and are just 1-5 in conference.
Record Dance Chance
Rank Team Conf Curr Proj Chalk %Odds %chg 1-seed %chg seed prev
75. Liberty CUSA 15-4 23-8 26-5 17.5 -10.2 0.0 0.0 12 12
79. St. Bonaventure A10 15-4 22-9 24-7 16.3 -11.7 0.0 0.0
80. Arizona St. B12 10-7 16-15 16-15 16.1 -16.9 0.0 0.0
84. Georgetown BE 12-6 17-14 15-16 11.3 -11.7 0.0 0.0
90. UNLV MWC 11-7 17-14 17-14 8.2 +6.4 0.0 0.0
96. Furman SC 15-4 23-8 23-8 4.1 -16.3 0.0 0.0 13
Georgetown's odds also got cut in half last week after losing to DePaul, but they did break their 4-game losing streak by beating Villanova 64-63. Furman had it even worse, losing 16.3%, over 80% of their previous odds. The Paladins played 3 games in 6 days and went 1-2, losing to Wofford and Chattanooga, and beating East Tennessee State, all at home. UNLV was a rare bright spot in the lower reaches of the Dance Chance after an amazing week where they upset MWC leader Utah State 65-62 and stalwart San Diego State 76-68 on the road. Unfortunately for the Runnin' Rebels, they were 9-7 beforehand with less than 2.0% odds so their odds are still pretty long. They haven't really lost to anyone bad, but they still face a lot of tough opponents in the Mountain West, which does mean opportunity if they can greatly exceed their 17-14 projection. Maybe last week marks a breakthrough, so be sure to keep an eye on the Rebels.