SportsRatings: College Basketball

2024-24 Week 10 Dance Chance: Florida boots Tennessee from top seeds

Two new 1-seeds this week. Auburn remained on top with two hard-fought SEC road wins, though star Johni Broome had another injury scare. Duke beat Pitt and Notre Dame at home and joined the Tigers—whom they beat earlier this year—as near-locks for the tournament and over 50% in 1-seed odds. After that things changed: Despite suffering their first loss, to Kentucky, earlier in the week, Florida's massive 30-point win over Tennessee moves the Gators to the 1-line. Alabama, who like Auburn got two SEC road wins, takes the final 1-seed with the Volunteers close behind as the top 2-seed. All three teams have around 40% odds to end up a 1-seed, meaning the SEC has a decent shot at having three 1-seeds

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  15-1  28-3   30-1  >99.9   0.0  93.9  +0.1    1    1 
  2. Duke                   ACC  14-2  28-3   29-2  >99.9   0.0  68.9  +0.4    1    1 
  3. Florida                SEC  15-1  26-5   27-4   99.1  +5.3  44.1 +23.9    1    2 
  4. Alabama                SEC  14-2  24-7   25-6   98.7  +3.4  41.6 +15.2    1    2 
  5. Tennessee              SEC  15-1  25-6   28-3   98.6  -1.0  41.0 -22.9    2    1 
  6. Houston                B12  12-3  25-6   28-3   97.2  +1.2  12.2  -3.2    2    2 
  7. Michigan               B10  13-3  24-7   28-3   96.7  +6.1  14.8  +6.5    2    3 
  8. Iowa St.               B12  14-1  26-5   27-4   96.4  +3.6  15.7  +3.8    2    3 
  9. Illinois               B10  12-4  23-8   25-6   96.0  -1.0  14.6 -12.6    3    1 
 10. Kentucky               SEC  13-3  22-9   25-6   95.7  +0.6  17.8  -6.1    3    2 

Illinois is the other 1-seed booted out of the top line and they fall to a 3-seed. The Illini started the week great, beating Penn State by 39 points before falling at home to USC in an 82-72 stunner. That left the Michigan Wolverines as the new favorite in the Big Ten after they beat UCLA 94-75 on the road and Washington 91-75 at home. Houston and Iowa State continued winning and hope to win the Big Twelve. All four teams have double digit 1-seed odds, and winning their conference tournament would give them a good shot, but right now Kentucky actually has the highest 1-seed odds outside the top 5 teams at 17.8%. The Wildcats fell to a 3-seed this week, however; after upsetting Florida they were upset in turn by Georgia, 82-69. 

The Bulldogs got a powerful 20% boost from that win, moving them off the play-in line to a 7-seed. Two other SEC teams fared well: Ole Miss beat Arkansas and LSU and jumped to a 6-seed at 14-2 ahead of their showdown at Alabama on Tuesday; and Missouri beat LSU and Vanderbilt to sit 13-3 ahead of their own showdown at Florida that same day. The Big Ten teams below didn't fare as well, with UCLA taking a big hit vs. Michigan as noted above, then losing 79-61 at Maryland. Their home game against Iowa on Friday will be played at home, or somewhere in the area, despite the L.A. fires. Ohio State may have demolished Oregon in football but the Buckeyes lost at home to the Ducks 73-71 last Thursday and they dropped a couple seeds.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 22. Mississippi            SEC  14-2  20-11  20-11  76.3 +18.9   1.0  +0.8    6   10 
 24. UCLA                   B10  11-5  20-11  24-7   75.6 -10.7  <0.1  -2.9    6    4 
 25. Pittsburgh             ACC  12-4  24-7   25-6   75.3 -10.0  <0.1  -2.2    7    4 
 26. Georgia                SEC  14-2  20-11  20-11  75.1 +20.6   0.3  +0.1    7   11p
 27. St. John's             BE   14-3  24-7   25-6   74.4 +10.5   0.1  +0.1    7    9 
 32. Missouri               SEC  13-3  20-11  18-13  69.7 +11.7   0.2  +0.1    8   10 
 34. Louisville             ACC  12-5  23-8   25-6   66.1 +11.2   0.0   0.0    9   11 
 35. Ohio St.               B10  10-6  19-12  19-12  65.8  -5.5  <0.1  -0.4    9    7 
 37. San Diego St.          MWC  10-4  22-7   24-5   63.9  -5.4   0.0   0.0   10    8 

Pittsburgh had a bad week, losing to Duke by 29 then falling to Louisville at home; this dropped them from 12-2 to 12-4 and from a projected 4-seed down to a 7-seed, while the Cardinals jumped to a 9-seed with a 5-1 start in the ACC. New 7-seed St. John's is also 5-1 in the Big East following wins over Xavier and Villanova. In the Mountain West, San Diego State slumped after losing 62-48 to New Mexico 62-48.

Speaking of the Lobos, they are now 6-0 in the MWC and moved off the play-in line but are still on the bubble, if you define that as the Last Eight In. Also surging and back in the seedings is UC Irvine, who beat fellow Big West contender UC San Diego on the road to claim unofficial conference leader status from the Tritons, who fell to an 11-seed. That gives the Big West two projected at-large teams in the tournament, which could happen if both continue to play well. Vanderbilt didn't play well last week, losing two games just after I talked them up for starting 13-1.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 39. UC Irvine              BW   15-2  28-4   30-2   61.2 +12.2   0.0   0.0   10      
 40. New Mexico             MWC  14-3  24-7   24-7   60.2  +9.9   0.0   0.0   10   12p
 41. Vanderbilt             SEC  13-3  19-12  18-13  57.3 -10.1   0.1  -0.4   11    8 
 42. UC San Diego           BW   14-3  27-5   28-4   57.1  -4.9   0.0   0.0   11   10 
 43. Saint Mary's           WCC  15-3  23-8   26-5   56.8 +13.0   0.0   0.0   11p     
 44. Nebraska               B10  12-4  19-12  17-14  54.2 -11.2   0.0  -0.1   11p   9 
 45. Iowa                   B10  12-4  19-12  17-14  51.2 +14.8   0.0   0.0   11p     
 46. Texas                  SEC  11-5  18-13  18-13  50.9  +2.4  <0.1  +0.1   11p     

Another SEC team, Texas, is one of three teams to join on the 11-seed play-in line. The Longhorns lost two games last week but still moved up as the Last Team In; their narrow losses to top overall seed Auburn (87-82) and former 1-seed Tennessee (74-70) were deemed positive results, which they were (except for the losing part). Imagine where they'd be if they had won one (or both) of those games! And Iowa re-joins after beating Indiana 85-60, and before that topping Nebraska in overtime. The Cornhuskers followed up that loss with another one at Purdue by the score of 104-68. Ouch! And the last team to join is St. Mary's, no surprise as the Gaels are in the tournament every year and the WCC can't be a 1-bid league can they?

Under the waterline: Four teams in means four teams fell out (five if you count Dayton, who remains the Atlantic 10 favorite despite a 1-2 start in the league): Arkansas lost twice at home to Ole Miss and Florida—neither a shameful result but the Razorbacks are 0-3 in the SEC and it doesn't get much easier; Penn State got crushed by Illinois 91-52 then lost at home to Oregon; SMU fell at North Carolina 82-67, again not a horrible result but the Mustangs were 2nd-to-Last Team In last week; and Cincinnati suffered their 3rd and 4th losses in a row, to Baylor and Kansas.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 47. Arkansas               SEC  11-5  18-13  18-13  50.6 -12.6  <0.1  -0.4         9 
 48. Penn St.               B10  12-5  19-12  18-13  49.9 -11.1   0.0   0.0        10 
 49. Dayton                 A10  11-5  22-9   24-7   47.7  -8.2   0.0   0.0   12   11 
 50. SMU                    ACC  12-4  22-9   25-6   47.6  -5.0   0.0   0.0        12p
 51. Oklahoma               SEC  13-3  18-13  16-15  46.6  -2.6   0.0   0.0           
 52. Creighton              BE   10-6  19-12  19-12  44.6  +7.9   0.0   0.0           
 53. Cincinnati             B12  10-5  19-12  20-11  42.0 -13.6   0.0   0.0        11 
 54. BYU                    B12  10-5  18-13  18-13  40.9  -7.9   0.0   0.0           

All in all not a great week for the teams that finished on the lower end of the bubble. Oklahoma is 13-3 after losing to Texas A&M and Georgia, though they only lost -2.6% of their odds from it. Our projection doesn't give them many wins going forward, so the losses don't ding their odds much. BYU also has lost three in a row in the Big Twelve. Creighton was the only team here that had a pleasant week, winning their only game at Butler.

There aren't many big winners below the bubble area, either, as almost every team is moving down in odds as reality sets in. I was high on St. Bonaventure last week when I realized they were 14-1; now they're 14-3 and dropped from 42% to 28% odds after falling to St. Louis and La Salle. Arizona State started 9-2 but they're 10-5 now after losing to Kansas and Baylor for a 1-3 start in the Big Twelve. Indiana got off to a 4-1 Big Ten start but hit a headwind at Iowa, losing by 25. Northwestern is now 1-4 in the same league after losing three in a row, most recently to Michigan State. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 59. Arizona St.            B12  10-5  17-14  17-14  33.0  -5.8   0.0   0.0           
 61. Indiana                B10  13-4  17-14  15-16  31.5  -5.1   0.0   0.0           
 64. St. Bonaventure        A10  14-3  23-8   25-6   28.0 -16.3   0.0   0.0           
 69. Northwestern           B10  10-6  16-15  17-14  23.1 -10.6   0.0   0.0           
 72. Washington St.         WCC  13-5  21-10  20-11  21.3 -20.7   0.0   0.0           
 73. USC                    B10  10-6  16-15  13-18  20.6 +11.4   0.0   0.0           
 74. Furman                 SC   14-2  24-6   27-3   20.4  -6.8   0.0   0.0   13   12 

USC, however, is bucking the downward trend. The Trojans did lose to Indiana on Wednesday but they upset 1-seed Illinois 82-72 to revive their flagging at-large hopes. They're only 2-3 in the conference so far but it was easily their best win of the season. Former Pac-12 teammates Washington State lost two games in their new league (the WCC). On Saturday they lost to Gonzaga by 13 which isn't bad at all, unfortunately before that they fell to lowly 6-14 Pacific in overtime, at home. That cut their at-large hopes in half. Furman still leads our Southern Conference projections despite losing to UNC Greensboro 84-67 last week.

Bradley was charging in the Missouri Valley and hoped to beat Drake and take over the Bulldogs' leadership position; instead the lost at home 64-57 and were almost upset at Illinois-Chicago. Another MVC hopeful, Northern Iowa, was upset at home by Murray State. In the Atlantic 10 George Mason slid despite two wins: they beat mediocre Richmond and UMass by 6 and 7 at home, respectively. Rhode Island needed overtime to beat the same mediocre Richmond team and lost to George Washington at home.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 76. Bradley                MVC  14-3  23-8   25-6   19.2  -7.9   0.0   0.0           
 78. George Mason           A10  12-5  21-10  23-8   17.6  -6.4   0.0   0.0           
 79. LSU                    SEC  11-5  15-16  12-19  16.8 -10.9   0.0   0.0           
 83. Rhode Island           A10  13-3  21-9   22-8   13.8 -10.9   0.0   0.0           
 85. Lipscomb               ASun 11-6  23-8   25-6   11.4 -11.2   0.0   0.0   13   13 
 86. San Francisco          WCC  14-5  20-11  20-11  11.4 -10.3   0.0   0.0           
 87. Northern Iowa          MVC  10-7  19-12  21-10  11.1  -7.0   0.0   0.0           

LSU proves that not every SEC team is excelling—not surprising since they're all playing each other. The Tigers lost their 3rd game in a row to start 0-3 in league play and look like a sub-.500 team when all is said and done. Lipscomb is pretty far and away the best team in the Atlantic Sun but they lost at home to Queens, 75-73 last Thursday. And San Francisco continues to slide down our rankings, dropping another 10% after losing to Santa Clara by 23 points on Saturday. The Dons are now the 6th-ranked WCC team, and the WCC might only get one team this year. It won't get six.

 All of the teams below lost more than half their existing odds. Nearly all are from minor or mid-major conferences and have middling overall records, something that rarely if even manifests into an at-large bid. CSUN (Cal-State Northridge, if you wondered), lost to both UC Irvine (which was expected) and CSU Bakersfield (which was not). South Dakota State once again swapped the Summit leadership with rival North Dakota State, this after the Jackrabbits fell to St. Thomas and Nebraska Omaha last week. UNLV and Butler are from solid conferences and theoretically could get back on the board but both lost twice last week, with the Bulldogs hurting especially hard after their NINTH loss in a row.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
114. CSUN                   BW   11-6  19-12  21-10   3.3  -5.1   0.0   0.0           
118. South Dakota St.       Sum  10-8  20-11  22-9    2.7  -5.2   0.0   0.0        14 
123. Butler                 BE    7-10 13-18  13-18   2.1  -8.9   0.0   0.0           
124. UNLV                   MWC   9-7  15-16  13-18   1.8  -5.8   0.0   0.0           
127. Troy                   SB   10-6  19-10  20-9    1.5  -5.5   0.0   0.0           
129. Illinois St.           MVC  10-7  18-13  18-13   1.4  -5.9   0.0   0.0           
139. Wichita St.            Amer 10-6  18-13  19-12   0.5  -8.2   0.0   0.0           

Troy also dropped two games after a decent 10-4 start, and worse, both were home games they coulda shoulda won. Illinois State lost twice (see a pattern?) and guess what? so did Wichita State, both upset losses by double digits, which is why the Shockers are down to 0.5% odds, or a 1 in 200 chance of somehow making it to at-large status.

Florida wipes out Tennessee, 73-43: how does it change power ratings?

Florida took an early lead and didn't look back, crushing the final D-I unbeaten Tennessee 73-43. It was supposed to be a battle of the unbeatens but Florida lost a few days ago at Kentucky, meaning that both the Gators and the Vols are 14-1 now.

Just out of curiosity, let's see what this one, lopsided result does to our power ratings: Strength, Success, and Overall.

Strength

This is a "pure points" rating—winner doesn't matter—and it's also unweighted (recent games don't count more). Here is the Strength ranking as of Sunday's games:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     34.71
2.  Duke                      12-2     32.60
3.  Houston                   10-3     31.29
4.  Tennessee                 14-0     29.69
5.  Gonzaga                   12-4     29.39
6.  Illinois                  11-3     28.49
7.  Iowa St.                  12-1     26.52
8.  Alabama                   12-2     26.43
9.  Florida                   13-1     25.99

Tennessee was undefeated but rated below Auburn, Duke, and Houston in Strength. Florida was 9th going in to tonight's game. With a 3 point home edge, the expected result was Tennessee by about a point; the oddsmakers favored the Gators by 2.5, and the betting public pushed that to 3.5 points.

With tonight's result added in, we have:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     34.69
2.  Duke                      12-2     32.58
3.  Houston                   10-3     31.26
4.  Gonzaga                   12-4     29.37
5.  Illinois                  11-3     28.29
6.  Florida                   14-1     28.00
7.  Tennessee                 14-1     27.64

What a difference a 30-point blowout makes! Tennessee fell three spots to #7 and Florida moved up 3 to #6. Overall Tennessee's rating fell by about two full points while Florida gained 2. Considering that I only added this one result, it makes sense. Still, it's rare when one result puts the winner ahead of the loser when the loser was almost 4 points better previously.

Now, Success: 

Success is a wins-losses-only rating, meaning score margin doesn't matter. So whether Florida won by a point or by 30, the result here would be the same. It does matter that they played at home. Here's the Success ratings before the game:

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Tennessee                 14-0     38.51
2.  Auburn                    13-1     31.30
3.  Kentucky                  12-2     21.29
4.  Mississippi St.           13-1     20.42
5.  Duke                      12-2     18.45
6.  Florida                   13-1     18.39

Tennessee was the clear #1 here at 14-0, with Auburn a solid 2nd place and everyone else including the Gators far behind. Florida's loss to Kentucky dropped them to #6 at 13-1. What does one home win do?

#   Team                     record    Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     31.09
2.  Tennessee                 14-1     29.26
3.  Florida                   14-1     28.43
4.  Kentucky                  12-2     23.53

Well, now Auburn's back at #1, best among the 1-loss teams in Success. Florida gains a lot of ground back—10 points worth—and Tennessee loses almost 10 points, but remains ahead of the Gators. The 30 points doesn't matter, and the home court is taken into account, so the result isn't seen as definitive just yet. In any event, the teams are very close. Note that Florida moves back ahead of Kentucky who just beat them a few days ago! This rating system doesn't know (or care) that Kentucky beat Florida by 6 and Florida beat Tennessee by 30.

Overall

This is the combination of the two ratings: it simply adds the scores together, accounting for both winning games and playing for style points. Prior to the game:

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Tennessee                 14-0     68.21
2.  Auburn                    13-1     66.01
3.  Duke                      12-2     51.05
4.  Kentucky                  12-2     46.90
5.  Iowa St.                  12-1     44.72
6.  Florida                   13-1     44.39

Tennessee was barely ahead of Auburn as of Monday, the Vols having enough of a lead in Success to offset Auburn's lead in Strength. Florida was 9th in Strength and 6th in Success, good enough for 6th place overall.

#   Team                     Record   Rating
1.  Auburn                    13-1     65.79
2.  Tennessee                 14-1     56.91
3.  Florida                   14-1     56.43
4.  Duke                      12-2     50.87
5.  Kentucky                  12-2     49.26
6.  Iowa St.                  12-1     44.42

The teams are so close in Strength that it ends up being the larger difference in Success that gives Tennessee about a 1/2 point edge overall. In any case it's pretty much even after the 30-point blowout. Does that make sense? Why isn't Florida ahead? Well, what do you think the line will be when Tennessee gets a shot at revenge in February 1st?

Only Auburn passes Tennessee, while Florida moves past Iowa State, Kentucky, and Duke. This gives the SEC the top three spots in the country, and 4 of the top 5!

Note that this doesn't include any other games played since Sunday. When those are figured in, a lot could change (Auburn is playing Texas as I type this, while Duke has demolished Pitt, and Kentucky lost to Georgia. Iowa State leads Utah. I normally update twice a week until football season is over but I'll make an exception tomorrow morning, there's too much going on!

Addendum: Where does this game rank among the year's best performances?

Seems like it should be pretty close to the top:

1.  Kansas 99, @UCF 48
2.  Auburn 91, =Ohio St. 53
3.  Gonzaga 113, UMass Lowell 54
4.  Illinois 109, @Oregon 77
5.  Arkansas 109, Maryland Eastern Shore 35
6.  Alabama 110, UNC Asheville 54
7.  Florida 73, Tennessee 43

Florida's win is only #7. Auburn's win over Ohio State is only #2 after Kansas beat Central Florida by 51. Gonzaga's best win was over Baylor by 38 in the opener until they topped UMass-Lowell by 59. If we filter out the mega-blowouts and consider only power-conference games, Florida over Tennessee is 3rd after the big wins by Auburn and Illinois. Ignoring margin of victory, though, it's probably 2nd to Duke's win over Auburn. 

2024-2025 Week 9 Dance Chance: Illinois joins 1-seeds

Tennessee is now the only undefeated team in the nation but they're not the Dance Chance's overall 1-seed, in fact they slipped to #3 despite a very solid 24-point win over Arkansas. Auburn matched that with 16-point win over Missouri, and their 29-point win over Monmouth was much better than the Vols' 15-point win over Norfolk State. So the Tigers kept the top spot, and Duke pushed into #2, increasing their 1-seed odds by nearly 20% with an 89-62 road win vs. SMU (the Blue Devils also hold the only win over Auburn so far). Crashing the top seed line is Illinois, who beat Oregon and Washington on the road, the former win (109-77) much more impressive than the latter (81-77) but 2 road wins is 2 road wins, and the Illini jump from a 3-seed all the way to the top four.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  13-1  28-3   30-1  >99.9   0.0  93.8   0.0    1    1 
  2. Duke                   ACC  12-2  28-3   29-2   99.9  +1.0  68.5 +19.0    1    1 
  3. Tennessee              SEC  14-0  27-4   30-1   99.6  +0.3  63.9  -4.4    1    1 
  4. Illinois               B10  11-3  24-7   26-5   97.0  +6.1  27.2 +11.7    1    3 
  5. Houston                B12  10-3  25-6   28-3   96.0  +1.2  15.4  -1.2    2    1 
  6. Alabama                SEC  12-2  22-9   25-6   95.3  +3.0  26.4  +3.1    2    2 
  7. Kentucky               SEC  12-2  23-8   25-6   95.1  +3.1  23.9  -0.1    2    2 
  8. Florida                SEC  13-1  24-7   26-5   93.8   0.0  20.2  -8.4    2    2 

Houston is pushed down to a 2-seed for now but they're in good shape after starting 2-0 in Big Twelve play including a 31-point win over BYU. The big game in the 2-line saw Kentucky hand Florida their first loss, 106-100, which left the Gators' Dance Chance odds untouched but their 1-seed odds took a hit. The Wildcats improved marginally, while Alabama remains ahead of both (which seems right considering the Tide have wins over both Houston and Illinois). Kentucky's win ruined the undefeated vs. undefeated matchup between Florida and Tennessee; now it's just a 1-seed vs. a 2-seed come Tuesday the 7th.

Three Big Ten teams below took a hit: UCLA's run-up was paused by a loss to Nebraska, and Maryland took a double hit, losing to both Washington and Oregon on their swing through the Pacific Northwest. As noted above, Oregon lost to Illinois by 32 which outweighed their 4-point win over the Terps. Bucking the trend was Michigan, who beat USC and, having shaken off all of last year's 8-24 stench, is 11-3 and is looking like a 3-seed. The Wolverines face UCLA on Tuesday.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 12. Michigan               B10  11-3  23-8   27-4   90.6  +8.5   8.3  +3.3    3    5 
 14. UCLA                   B10  11-3  22-9   25-6   86.3  -0.2   3.0  -4.4    4    4 
 17. Texas A&M              SEC  12-2  21-10  23-8   84.5 +11.2   5.1  +1.8    5    6 
 18. Maryland               B10  11-4  23-9   25-7   82.8  -5.1   1.9  -7.7    5    3 
 19. Oregon                 B10  13-2  23-8   23-8   82.3  -0.4   1.0  -2.9    5    4 
 21. Connecticut            BE   12-3  23-8   25-6   76.3  -6.8   0.2  -1.2    6    4 
 22. Arizona                B12   8-5  20-11  22-9   76.3  +9.3   0.8  +0.1    6    8 
 25. Wisconsin              B10  11-3  21-10  23-8   74.3 +12.9   0.6  +0.3    7    9 

Another winner in the Big Ten above was Wisconsin, who beat Iowa by 31 and Rutgers on the road adding 13% to their odds. Nearly matching that was Texas A&M who beat Texas 80-60; they play Oklahoma and Alabama this week. Arizona also improved their lot, beating TCU and Cincinnati in their first 4-game win streak of the season; projections call for the Wildcats to go somewhere between 14-6 and 16-4 in the Big Twelve. Connecticut edged DePaul and Providence last week but they sank a bit further as the last vestiges of last year's National Championship are removed from the system's predictions...

Three huge winners below: West Virginia upset Kansas—in Lawrence—62-61, which would be enough to pump up anyone's odds, and the Mountaineers followed it up with a 69-50 win over Oklahoma State, soaring 22.3% from the play-in line to a 7-seed (Kansas, for their part, rebounded by beating UCF by 51 points and improved their own outlook ultimately!) Vanderbilt is a stealth 13-1—have they not been on our radar?—and jump in from nowhere into an 8-seed after beating LSU 80-72. Ok, so they were on our radar as 2nd-team-out last week, but shedding last year's 9-23 season helped, too. As did beating New Orleans 100-56, nothing like a good beatdown to improve one's power rating! Also Nebraska: the Cornhuskers beat Southern by 34 and UCLA by 8, putting them firmly in the seedings. 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 27. Ohio St.               B10   9-5  19-12  21-10  71.3  -7.3   0.5  -2.0    7    5 
 28. West Virginia          B12  11-2  21-10  21-10  70.9 +22.3   0.2  +0.1    7   11p
 30. Vanderbilt             SEC  13-1  20-11  19-12  67.4 +19.7   0.5  +0.4    8      
 32. Baylor                 B12   9-4  20-11  20-11  66.0  -4.1   0.4  -1.3    8    7 
 33. Nebraska               B10  12-2  20-11  18-13  65.4 +19.5   0.1  +0.1    9      
 35. St. John's             BE   12-3  22-9   25-6   63.9  -6.7  <0.1  -0.3    9    6 
 37. UC San Diego           BW   13-2  28-4   29-3   62.0 +13.3   0.0   0.0   10   12 
 38. Penn St.               B10  12-3  20-11  21-10  61.0  -9.2  <0.1  -1.2   10    7 

Other Big Ten teams weren't so lucky: Ohio State was tripped up at home by Michigan State 69-62, and Penn State fell at home to Indiana 77-71. In the Big Twelve Baylor was crushed by Iowa State 74-55 and the Big East's St. John's hit a roadblock at Creighton by a point and only beat Butler by 8 at home. But get this: UC San Diego, whom I've been talking about for weeks, made another leap from 12 to 10-seed after beating Fullerton State 90-51 on the road. The Tritons are looking legit at-large worthy in the Big West!

The Bubble: Ole Miss did their best to escape the bubble but the bubble caught them by the ankle, if we count 8 teams up; the Rebels beat Georgia and switched seeds with the Bulldogs. But Dayton and Cincinnati both fell from 8-seeds onto the bubble (what's in the water in Ohio?) with the Flyers losing to George Washington by 20 points and Cincy dropping games at Kansas State and to Arizona. Both were close (3 points, 5 points) but the Bearcats are off to an 0-2 start in conference.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 40. Mississippi            SEC  12-2  19-12  17-14  57.4  +7.9   0.2  -0.2   10   11p
 41. Dayton                 A10  11-4  23-8   25-6   55.9  -9.9   0.0   0.0   11    8 
 42. Cincinnati             B12  10-3  20-11  21-10  55.6 -12.1  <0.1  -0.7   11    8 
 43. Louisville             ACC  10-5  21-10  23-8   54.9 +13.8   0.0   0.0   11      
 44. Georgia                SEC  12-2  19-12  18-13  54.5  -2.6   0.2  -0.7   11p  10 
 45. North Carolina         ACC   9-6  20-12  21-11  53.6  -9.6   0.0   0.0   11p   9 
 46. SMU                    ACC  11-3  23-8   26-5   52.6  -4.1   0.0   0.0   12p  11 
 47. New Mexico             MWC  12-3  23-8   22-9   50.3  +5.8   0.0   0.0   12p     

How about them Cardinals? Two years removed from a 4-28 record and they just upset North Carolina, tumbling the Tar Heels to the play-in game while Louisville enters as an 11-seed. Another ACC team, SMU, lost big to Duke (89-62) and remained bubble-bound. If they all stay in, the ACC has six teams but the odds say the league ends up with 4 or 5. Finally, New Mexico pops back in after topping Nevada, and basically avoiding the upsets/big losses that plagued the teams that fell below the waterline...

Speaking of which: Oklahoma suffered their first loss and it was a doozy, 107-79 at Alabama. It puts the Sooners in 50/50 territory as far as the tournament is concerned, with our projections calling for 4 to 6 more wins all year and 11 to 13 losses. Another SEC newcomer, Texas, hit a rough patch at Texas A&M losing 80-60 and falling out from a 10-seed. BYU lost at Houston by 31 points but a win over Arizona State balanced that out; their Dance Chance rose +1.0% but the Cougars slipped off the play-in line. UC Irvine isn't the Big West favorite any more but they're keeping things close as 2nd team out right now at 13-2.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 48. Oklahoma               SEC  13-1  19-12  17-14  49.2  -2.8  <0.1   0.0        11 
 49. UC Irvine              BW   13-2  27-5   29-3   49.0  +3.7   0.0   0.0           
 50. BYU                    B12  10-3  19-12  19-12  48.8  +1.0  <0.1  -0.1        12p
 51. Texas                  SEC  11-3  18-13  16-15  48.5  -9.8  <0.1  -0.6        10 
 52. St. Bonaventure        A10  14-1  26-5   28-3   44.3 +10.7   0.0   0.0           
 53. Saint Mary's           WCC  13-3  22-9   23-8   43.8  +3.8   0.0   0.0           
 54. Washington St.         WCC  13-3  22-9   22-9   42.0  +2.1   0.0   0.0           
 55. VCU                    A10  11-4  23-8   26-5   39.8  -0.5   0.0   0.0           

The Atlantic 10's St. Bonaventure has been hiding from us, too; the Bonnies are 14-1! and up over 10% after upsetting VCU, who remains in the Second Four Out. Right now only Gonzaga represents the West Coast Conference but St. Mary's and Washington State are within striking distance, both 13-3 and projected to be 22-9 before the WCC tourney.

More teams of note below: Creighton lost to Marquette but it was a road game, and beating St. John's helped them more than the loss hurt it seems. But the bigger Big East winner was Villanova who jumped 16.4% mainly from beating DePaul 100-56. Indiana kept themselves in the hunt by winning two Big Ten games and have won 8 of their last 9.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 57. Creighton              BE    9-6  18-13  18-13  36.7  +9.7   0.0   0.0           
 58. Indiana                B10  12-3  17-14  14-17  36.6  +8.7   0.0   0.0           
 59. Iowa                   B10  10-4  17-14  16-15  36.4 -11.3   0.0   0.0        12p
 60. Drake                  MVC  12-2  24-6   26-4   34.5 -17.8   0.0   0.0   12   11 
 61. Villanova              BE   10-5  18-13  19-12  33.9 +16.4   0.0   0.0           
 76. Lipscomb               ASun 10-5  24-7   26-5   22.6 +11.9   0.0   0.0   13   13 
 77. Oregon St.             WCC  12-4  21-10  22-9   22.5 -18.5   0.0   0.0         

The state of Iowa took a hit as both Iowa and Drake lost ground big time. The Hawkeyes had just clawed themselves into a perch as Last Team In for the past two weeks but were knocked off by the 116-85 loss at Wisconsin. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, lost their 2nd straight game after 12 wins; they're still the Missouri Valley favorites but their at-large odds fall from 50/50 to 1 in 3. Lipscomb still has meager at-large odds but they basically doubled them last week with two road wins, including a 32-point win over North Florida. Oregon State's odds in the WCC sank after losing 82-61 to Loyola Marymount.

Speaking of sinking, Butler is the definition of a sinking team as they've now lost seven in a row. This is the only team to beat Mississippi State! Their schedule has been brutal over that stretch, but at 7-8 their odds are dwindling. Utah took an even worse hit—the worst in the Dance Chance!—down 24.3% to single digits after losing to Baylor by 25 and Texas Tech by 28. Colorado also lost twice, including an 81-61 pounding at ASU. And North Dakota State, who just nabbed the status of front-runner in the Summit, gave it up with two home losses in that conference. (But they just won the FCS football championship, so I'm sure the school is ok with that trade-off).

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev  
 85. Butler                 BE    7-8  15-16  14-17  11.0 -10.7   0.0   0.0           
 86. Utah                   B12   8-5  15-16  13-18   9.5 -24.3   0.0   0.0           
100. Colorado               B12   9-4  14-17  11-20   7.7 -11.1   0.0   0.0           
103. North Dakota St.       Sum  11-6  22-9   23-8    7.1 -11.6   0.0   0.0        13 
116. DePaul                 BE    9-6  15-16  12-19   4.7  -9.2   0.0   0.0           
119. Florida Atlantic       Amer  8-7  18-13  19-12   4.4 -12.9   0.0   0.0           
122. N.C. State             ACC   8-6  15-16  14-17   3.4  -9.0   0.0   0.0           
138. Louisiana Tech         CUSA 11-4  19-12  19-12   1.5 -11.8   0.0   0.0           

DePaul lost to UConn and Villanova as expected, but the latter was a 100-56 beatdown that wasn't expected. Florida Atlantic has been fading from my pre-season (basically, last-season) ratings all year and a 90-62 loss to Memphis was the last straw as they drop about 75% of their remaining at-large hope. NC State also had a remarkable season—last year. This year's squad just lost to middle-of-the-pack ACC teams Virginia and Wake Forest. Finally, Louisiana Tech dumps almost 90% of their remaining odds, from 13.3% to 1.5%. The reason? Back to back losses to UTEP by 10 and New Mexico State by 30. Ouch. At least they beat "Rust" 108-60 prior to that. I'm not kidding, Rust College, founded in 1866, one of the oldest HBCU's still in existence. Learn something new every day.

Week 8, 2024: Slow final week to 2024, but a new 1-seed

There were two days last week with no games but enough happened to give us a new projected 1-seed and it is...Houston! Surprise, it wasn't another SEC team, no matter how much Auburn and Tennessee seem to have 1-seeds locked up before it turns to 2025. Along with Duke they played just 1 game between all four of them so how did the Cougars move onto the 1-line? Well it's more like Gonzaga fell to the 2-line, as the Bulldogs lost to UCLA 65-62 in Inglewood (that's a home game for UCLA really), putting the Zags at 9-4. That ends Gonzaga's chance for a 1-seed pretty much, as they didn't do enough in the pre-conference season to earn one even if they run the table in the WCC; our odds for the Zags drop to 1/2 of 1%. But their odds of getting a high seed are really good, since they should go nearly undefeated from here and have no bad losses.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  11-1  28-3   30-1  >99.9   0.0  93.8  +3.1    1    1 
  2. Tennessee              SEC  12-0  27-4   30-1   99.3  +0.4  68.3  -1.3    1    1 
  3. Duke                   ACC  10-2  27-4   29-2   98.9  +1.2  49.5  +7.6    1    1 
  4. Houston                B12   8-3  25-6   28-3   94.8  +0.9  16.6  -1.4    1    2 
  5. Florida                SEC  13-0  25-6   26-5   93.8  +3.0  28.6  +5.9    2    2 
  6. Alabama                SEC  11-2  22-9   25-6   92.3  +1.4  23.3  -1.9    2    2 
  7. Gonzaga                WCC   9-4  26-5   27-4   92.1  -2.6   0.5  -5.3    2    1 
  8. Kentucky               SEC  10-2  22-9   25-6   92.0  -0.1  24.0  -3.6    2    2 

Three SEC teams could have made a run at our last 1-seed but Kentucky didn't play, Alabama beat South Dakota State, and Florida beat 2-11 Stetson, none of which increase a team's résumé. The undefeated Gators did move into 4th place among "most likely" 1-seeds but they're heading into the SEC season and there's more chance of hitting turbulence than there is for Houston in the new, watered-down Big Twelve (still basically the 2nd toughest conference, or tied for 2nd with the Big Ten). Florida plays at Kentucky this coming Saturday which will have a measurable impact on both teams' 1-seed potential.

Speaking of the Big Ten, Illinois snatches back the "favorite" designation from Maryland with a 53-point beatdown of Chicago State, while the Terps' win over roughly-equivalent foe UMES was by 15 points. Both teams play Oregon this coming week; the Ducks are coming off a 40-point win over Weber State that pushed them up to a a 4-seed. UCLA, of course, got a solid boost from beating Gonzaga, while Michigan got the biggest gain in Dance Chance percentage of the sparse week after crushing a pretty solid Western Kentucky team 112-64.

Big East favorite Marquette was idle as was Big Twelve contender Iowa State.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Illinois               B10   9-3  23-8   27-4   90.9  +2.2  15.5  +1.4    3    3 
 10. Iowa St.               B12  10-1  25-6   27-4   90.5  +2.1  12.8  -0.5    3    3 
 11. Marquette              BE   11-2  25-6   28-3   89.6  +0.3   8.4  -1.1    3    3 
 12. Maryland               B10  11-2  25-7   27-5   87.9  -1.1   9.6  -1.1    3    3 
 13. UCLA                   B10  11-2  23-8   26-5   86.5  +6.9   7.4  +3.8    4    4 
 16. Oregon                 B10  12-1  23-8   22-9   82.7  +7.7   3.9  +1.6    4    5 
 18. Michigan               B10  10-3  22-9   23-8   82.1 +11.1   5.0  +3.1    5    6 
 22. Texas A&M              SEC  11-2  20-11  20-11  73.3  +5.5   3.3  +0.3    6    7 
 23. Utah St.               MWC  12-1  26-5   29-2   71.9  +4.4  <0.1  -0.1    6    7 
 25. Memphis                Amer 10-3  26-5   28-3   70.4  +4.3  <0.1   0.0    7    7 

Three former 7-seeds (above) in the SEC, Mountain West, and American had solid wins too. Texas A&M beat Abilene Christian 92-54; Utah State beat MWC rival San Diego State on the road; and Memphis topped Mississippi 79-66 at home. All but Memphis moved up to a 6-seed.

Below, most teams in the 7-10 range dropped to get there. San Diego State falls to a 9-seed after the Utah State loss. In the Big Ten, Penn State beat Penn by 20 but that wasn't enough as they fall from a 5 to a 7; and Purdue drops a seed for only beating Toledo by 19. Harsh! The Big Twelve had mixed results here, with Baylor falling a seed despite a 54-point win over Arlington Baptist in the Bears' first game in over 2 weeks. Arlington Baptist is non-D-I so the effect on Baylor's ranking is probably from their opponents (like former opponent Gonzaga losing again). Texas Tech, though, bucked the trend here and moved up a seed despite being idle. The Red Raiders' opponents as a group did very well last week, especially Wyoming who upset New Mexico.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 26. Penn St.               B10  11-2  22-9   23-8   70.2  -2.9   1.2  -0.7    7    5 
 27. Baylor                 B12   8-3  20-11  22-9   70.1  -1.1   1.7  -0.4    7    6 
 28. Purdue                 B10   9-4  20-11  23-8   69.4  -1.5   0.5  -1.6    7    6 
 32. Texas Tech             B12   9-2  21-10  22-9   65.4  +4.3   0.7   0.0    8    9 
 33. North Carolina         ACC   8-5  21-11  23-9   63.2  -0.4  <0.1  -0.1    9    9 
 34. Clemson                ACC  10-3  22-9   24-7   63.2  -0.8   0.1   0.0    9    9 
 35. San Diego St.          MWC   8-3  22-7   23-6   62.1  -2.0   0.0   0.0    9    8 
 38. Texas                  SEC  11-2  19-12  20-11  58.3  -1.4   0.6  -0.2   10   10 
 40. Georgia                SEC  12-1  19-12  18-13  57.1  -3.3   0.9  -0.2   10    9 

The ACC teams above, UNC and Clemson, both dropped negligibly in Dance Chance odds; Clemson didn't play and the Tar Heels beat Campbell 97-81 and both held their 9-seeds. Texas and Georgia had slightly larger odds drops, but both won last week. The Bulldogs 7-point win over South Carolina State certainly caused their seed drop though.

The Bubble: SMU is still on the bubble, as always. They play Duke on Saturday so if they want off, they've got a chance right there. Drake is undefeated and still bubble-bound, but creeping closer to the place where they might hold on to an at-large if it's needed. Then there's Oklahoma and Mississippi, SEC teams heading toward some hurt in their conference schedule. Ole Miss lost at Memphis and accordingly slipped onto the play-in line, while Oklahoma edged lowly Prairie View by 12, dropping them onto the bubble despite a 13-0 record. They're expected to go about 6-12 from here, favored only in 4 games. But the Sooner have already beaten Arizona and Michigan on neutral courts so maybe they'll be one of "those" teams, like Providence from a few years back, that wins every game by a few points regardless of opponent. They play at Alabama on Saturday so we'll get some answers at that time.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 41. SMU                    ACC  11-2  23-8   26-5   56.7  +3.0   0.0   0.0   11   11p
 42. Drake                  MVC  12-0  26-4   29-1   52.3  +3.3   0.0   0.0   11   11 
 43. Oklahoma               SEC  13-0  19-12  17-14  52.0  -4.2  <0.1  -0.2   11   10 
 44. Mississippi            SEC  11-2  18-13  18-13  49.5  -4.2   0.4  -0.5   11p  11 
 45. UC San Diego           BW   12-2  27-5   29-3   48.7  +3.9   0.0   0.0   12      
 46. West Virginia          B12   9-2  19-12  18-13  48.6  +0.8   0.1  +0.1   11p  11p
 47. BYU                    B12   9-2  19-12  19-12  47.8  +2.0   0.1   0.0   12p     
 48. Iowa                   B10   9-3  19-12  17-14  47.7  +0.8  <0.1   0.0   12p  12p

UC San Diego (above) is new to our seedings after beating Occidental by 59 points. They replace UC Irvine (below) as the leader in the Big West, but as I've said a hundred times, with this little leeway it will come down to the conference tournament. West Virginia and BYU sneak in give the Big Twelve nine teams, while Iowa holds on as the Last Team In for a 2nd week and gives the Big Ten 11 teams.

Vanderbilt is First Team Out but with 13 SEC teams in, that's not a great place to be. Likewise for Nebraska, but the Huskers make a big jump in odds after winning the Diamond Head Classic by beating Oregon State in Honolulu; the Beavers are in the Second Four Out, along with conference-mates Saint Mary's, and with Gonzaga the only WCC rep they've not situated poorly but both took a small hit this week (the Gaels beat Pacific by only 10 points at home). 

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 49. Vanderbilt             SEC  11-1  18-13  16-15  47.7  +2.6   0.1  -0.1           
 50. Nebraska               B10  10-2  19-12  16-15  45.9  +8.8  <0.1   0.0           
 51. UC Irvine              BW   10-2  26-6   29-3   45.3  -2.0   0.0   0.0        12 
 52. New Mexico             MWC  10-3  22-9   22-9   44.5  +5.3   0.0   0.0           
 53. Louisville             ACC   8-5  20-11  22-9   41.1  -0.7   0.0   0.0           
 54. Oregon St.             WCC  10-3  23-8   24-7   41.0  -4.8   0.0   0.0           
 55. VCU                    A10  10-3  23-8   27-4   40.3  +0.4   0.0   0.0           
 56. Saint Mary's           WCC  11-3  22-9   22-9   40.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0           

New Mexico is also in a good spot since the Mountain West, who had 6 bids last year, has only two teams in the brackets right now. The Lobos move up to 3rd place with a solid road win over Colorado State. Below we find more MWC teams: Boise State and Nevada, with the latter taking a big hit with the upset loss to Wyoming. And another West Coast team, Washington State, hoping to be the 2nd bid for that conference. They're doing a lot better than Washington right now as the Huskies have faded to 3.5% odds despite a 37-point win over New Jersey Tech. Probably the reality of the Big Ten season is creeping in? Their next three opponents are Maryland, Illinois, and Michigan State; they already have losses to UCLA and USC.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 57. Washington St.         WCC  11-3  22-9   22-9   39.9  -2.5   0.0   0.0           
 58. Boise St.              MWC  10-3  22-9   23-8   39.1  -1.5   0.0   0.0           
 60. Nevada                 MWC   8-5  20-11  22-9   38.3  -9.2   0.0   0.0        12p
 65. LSU                    SEC  11-2  17-14  13-18  31.4  +4.4  <0.1   0.0           
 82. North Dakota St.       Sum  11-4  23-8   25-6   18.7  +6.8   0.0   0.0   13      
103. Western Kentucky       CUSA  9-4  19-12  22-9    8.4  -5.2   0.0   0.0           
123. Loyola Chicago         A10   9-4  17-14  18-13   3.5  -4.8   0.0   0.0           
124. Washington             B10   9-4  13-18  11-20   3.5  -4.0   0.0   0.0           
178. Missouri St.           MVC   7-6  14-17  13-18   0.3  -1.7   0.0   0.0           
210. Wright St.             Horz  7-8  17-14  19-12  <0.1  -0.4   0.0   0.0           

Western Kentucky's drop is due to their huge (48 point) loss to Michigan. Loyola-Chicago dropped two more games last week, meaning they've lost 4 of their last 5 including all three in Hawaii, against teams no tougher than they'll face in the Atlantic 10. LSU faces a tough task in the SEC but their odds got a bit brighter after they beat Mississippi Valley 110-45. Yes the Delta Devils might be the worst team in D-I but you can't ignore a 65-point win. And North Dakota State took over as Summit leader following a 34-point win over Cal-Bakersfield.

Probably the worst drop percentage-wise (by ratio, I mean) were Missouri State, who lost 85% of their odds after losing to Evansville 57-40; and Wright State, who lost roughly the same proportion with a loss to Cleveland State, their third in a row.

2024 Week 7: SEC eyes two 1-seeds, three 2-seeds?

Another week, another Dance Chance projection with Auburn at the very top. A 41-point win over Georgia State and an 18 point win over Purdue didn't do anything but solidify the Tigers' position as the overall top 1-seed. They're very nearly a "lock" for the 2025 tournament and an astoundingly good bet for a 1-seed already in late 2024. Undefeated Tennessee is almost as certain a bet at 70% odds for a 1-seed, giving the SEC the two top teams. Duke is looking good for a 1-seed, but Gonzaga has just a 5.8% chance of remaining a 1-seed despite taking the 4th spot in today's projection. This is because their remaining schedule is easier and they rarely project below a 2-seed, while other teams have a greater "spread" of outcome. They play UCLA on Saturday, a game that might have a big effect on whether they take the last 1-seed or not, as their remaining schedule is on the easy side.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC  11-1  28-3   30-1  >99.9  +0.2  90.7  +3.6    1    1 
  2. Tennessee              SEC  11-0  27-4   30-1   98.9  +1.0  69.6  +7.9    1    1 
  3. Duke                   ACC  10-2  27-4   29-2   97.7  +1.0  41.9  +3.2    1    1 
  4. Gonzaga                WCC   9-3  27-4   28-3   94.7  -0.3   5.8  -4.6    1    1 
  5. Houston                B12   8-3  25-6   28-3   93.9  +1.4  18.0  +0.8    2    2 
  6. Kentucky               SEC  10-2  22-9   25-6   92.1  -1.9  27.6 -10.2    2    2 
  7. Alabama                SEC  10-2  22-9   25-6   90.9  -0.8  25.2  -7.8    2    2 
  8. Florida                SEC  12-0  24-7   26-5   90.8  +7.3  22.7  +6.6    2    3 

The current 2-seeds all have a much higher chance of getting a 1-seed than Gonzaga but they also have tougher schedules and thus have more ways to earn a 1-seed as well as a higher chance to screw it up than the Zags do. Houston, once 4-3, is now 8-3 and the Cougars outlook is good, and the 2-line now contains three more SEC teams, all with 20%+ odds of reaching the 1-line: fighting it out will be Kentucky, Alabama, and Florida. The Wildcats had a poor week, losing by 20 to Ohio State, a team Auburn beat by 38, resulting in a double-digit loss in 1-seed odds without dropping the 'Cats out of the 2-line. Alabama underperformed at North Dakota, winning by just 7 points. Florida shined however, remaining unbeaten with a win at North Carolina and a 54-point beatdown of North Florida.

The teams currently on the 3-line each has around a 10% shot at a 1-seed. Marquette drops to a 3-seed after tepid wins over Butler and Xavier but remains tops in the Big East. Maryland takes over as top dog in the Big Ten after crushing St. Francis 111-57 and beating Syracuse 87-60, just edging past Illinois who remains a 3-seed after beating Missouri 80-77 in St. Louis. Iowa State is the #2 Big Twelve team currently, their only loss to Auburn. The Cyclones pummeled Morgan State 99-72.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Marquette              BE   11-2  25-6   28-3   89.3  +1.5   9.5  -1.6    3    2 
 10. Maryland               B10  10-2  25-7   28-4   89.0  +8.9  10.7  +5.2    3    4 
 11. Illinois               B10   8-3  23-8   27-4   88.7  +1.8  14.1  -1.4    3    3 
 12. Iowa St.               B12  10-1  25-6   27-4   88.4  +1.3  13.3  -1.0    3    3 
 13. Connecticut            BE   10-3  24-7   27-4   83.0  -0.3   2.5  -0.6    4    3 
 17. Mississippi St.        SEC  11-1  22-9   23-8   78.6  +7.1   7.6  +1.8    5    5 
 18. Ohio St.               B10   8-4  21-10  23-8   77.6 +12.8   3.6  +2.0    5    8 
 19. Oregon                 B10  11-1  22-9   21-10  75.0  +5.0   2.3  +0.1    5    6 

Connecticut, like Marquette, had trouble with both Xavier and Butler, needing overtime to beat the Musketeers and edging the Bulldogs by 4 points. Mississippi State is yet another SEC team with reasonable designs on a 1-seed; they're at 7.6%, meaning current ly-projected 1-seed Gonzaga is actually 12th in 1-seed odds! These Bulldogs beat Memphis on the road and only have one loss, to Butler (Butler is giving everyone fits despite being just 7-6!). And both Ohio State and Oregon had solid weeks, leading a huge swath of Big Ten teams in the 5- and 6-seed lines. The Buckeyes of course crushed Kentucky in New York, 85-65, propping them up 3 seeds, while the Ducks beat former Pac-12 rival Stanford 76-61 and are off to an 11-1 start.

I've been sleeping on St. John's, I have to admit. Last year's team came on strong at the end and might have made waves in the Dance if they'd been selected; it seems the momentum has carried through to this season where the Red Storm are 10-2 after beating DePaul 89-61 and Providence 72-70 on the road. Arizona got off to a rocky 4-5 start but last week was a good one, with the Wildcats beating Samford by 32 and Central Michigan 94-41(!). They need to beat the good teams, though, if they want a better seed than 8, though that is much better than being on the bubble like last week. Memphis and Dayton both took a hit last week, the Tigers losing to Mississippi State at home and the Flyers falling to Cincinnati.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. St. John's             BE   10-2  23-8   25-6   69.6  +6.5   0.7  +0.3    7    8 
 28. Memphis                Amer  9-3  25-6   28-3   66.1  -4.7   0.0  -0.2    7    5 
 30. Arizona                B12   6-5  19-12  21-10  65.4 +13.1   0.5  +0.2    8   11 
 31. Dayton                 A10  10-3  25-6   27-4   65.2  -0.7   0.0   0.0    8    7 
 32. San Diego St.          MWC   8-2  22-7   24-5   64.1  +6.6  <0.1   0.0    8    9 
 33. Clemson                ACC  10-3  22-9   24-7   64.0  -4.6   0.1  -0.3    9    6 
 35. Texas Tech             B12   9-2  21-10  20-11  61.1  +9.6   0.7  +0.6    9   11p

San Diego State, currently our #2 MWC team, beat Cal 71-50 and faces MWC #1 Utah State this Saturday, while Clemson, currently #3 ACC, lost their 2nd overtime game in a row at South Carolina and dropped to a 9-seed. Texas Tech had a fun week, beating up Oral Roberts by 36 and Lamar by 44, which took them off the play-in line in a big way. The Red Raiders don't have any quality wins so they'll have to have a strong Big Twelve season, which is looking more likely with their improvement in Strength rating.

The Bubble: We start off with two more SEC teams, Arkansas who has been here for a while, and Mississippi who dropped here from a 10-seed despite wins over Southern and Queens that weren't amazing enough (13 and 18 points) to meet the expectations of a 10-seed. As SEC teams #12 and #13 they won't get the benefit of the doubt. SMU, on the other hand, might get some leeway as they are only ACC team #5. Once again Drake resides here; they got a decent win at Kansas State but they followed that up with just a 10-point home win over lackluster Green Bay (yes, the team that lost to Michigan Tech).

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 41. Arkansas               SEC  10-2  19-12  19-12  55.0  +2.5   0.7  -0.5   11   11 
 42. Mississippi            SEC  11-1  19-12  18-13  53.7  -1.8   0.9  -0.6   11   10 
 43. SMU                    ACC  10-2  23-8   26-5   53.7  +2.8  <0.1   0.0   11p  12p
 44. Drake                  MVC  11-0  26-4   29-1   49.0  -0.8   0.0   0.0   11   12 
 45. West Virginia          B12   9-2  18-13  18-13  47.8  +2.1  <0.1  -0.1   11p     
 46. Nevada                 MWC   8-4  22-9   24-7   47.5  -4.7   0.0   0.0   12p  11p
 47. UC Irvine              BW   10-2  26-6   29-3   47.3  -8.1   0.0   0.0   12   10 
 48. Iowa                   B10   9-3  19-12  18-13  46.9  +7.5  <0.1   0.0   12p     

West Virginia is new to the seedings, as is Iowa who has been just below the waterline for many weeks. The Hawkeyes got a solid win over Utah on Saturday to propel them to Last Team In. Nevada holds on as a play-in team, giving the Mountain West three teams, while Big West leader UC Irvine last to Duquesne 70-54, reinforcing the idea that the Anteaters' Dance hopes will probably come down to the Big West tournament.

Saint Mary's took a huge hit and fell below the waterline from a 9-seed; the Gaels lost at home to Utah State 75-68 but almost as bad was their way-too-close 73-68 home win over Merrimack, a game they should have cleared by at least 15. This left Gonzaga as the only West Coast Conference rep in the tournament, though the Gaels are joined by new WCC members Oregon State and Washington State in the lower bubble. Another team slipping out of the seedings is former WCC member BYU; even a 103-57 win over Florida A&M didn't keep them afloat.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 49. BYU                    B12   9-2  19-12  20-11  45.8  -1.3   0.1  +0.1        12p
 50. Oregon St.             WCC   9-2  22-7   23-6   45.8  +1.5   0.0   0.0           
 51. Vanderbilt             SEC  11-1  18-13  16-15  45.1 +12.8   0.2  +0.2           
 52. Saint Mary's           WCC  10-3  22-9   23-8   45.0 -11.9   0.0   0.0         9 
 53. UC San Diego           BW   11-2  27-5   29-3   44.8  +6.4   0.0   0.0           
 54. Washington St.         WCC  10-3  22-9   22-9   42.4  -4.5   0.0   0.0           
 55. Louisville             ACC   7-5  20-11  22-9   41.8  +7.7   0.0   0.0           
 56. Boise St.              MWC   9-3  22-9   23-8   40.6  -2.2   0.0   0.0           

Vanderbilt at 11-1 is finally starting to convince our algorithm that they aren't last year's 9-23 teams; they're up almost 13% this week after beating The Citadel by 52 and Austin Peay by 30. The Commodores will have to navigate the SEC, which is now the toughest basketball conference, and they're 14th in line at the moment. But check out UC San Diego, whom I mentioned last week as having a great opportunity vs. Utah State; they made the most of it, beating the Aggies 75-73 on the road. Their followup vs. lowly San Diego wasn't as impressive (77-71) but they're closer to at-large consideration in the Big West, thought realistically they'll probably have to beat Irvine in the conference tournament. Louisville won the showdown of ACC-turnaround teams, beating Florida State 90-76 in Tallahassee, while Boise State currently projects as MWC team #4.

And below we see the effect the big home loss had on the Seminoles, who fell farther off the bubble going into ACC season. Also dropping were Utah (lost to Iowa) and Creighton (lost at Georgetown). Bradley got a good win over San Francisco and looks to challenge Drake in the Missouri Valley; meanwhile the 66-64 loss puts the Dons in the dumps, down almost 15% when combined with their followup 4-point home win over Montana.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 61. Utah                   B12   8-3  18-13  19-12  36.4  -8.1  <0.1  -0.2           
 65. Bradley                MVC  10-2  24-7   27-4   32.3  +8.7   0.0   0.0           
 68. Creighton              BE    8-5  17-14  17-14  29.3  -6.9   0.0   0.0           
 69. Florida St.            ACC   9-4  19-12  20-11  28.3  -6.8   0.0   0.0           
 70. San Francisco          WCC  10-3  21-10  22-9   28.3 -14.9   0.0   0.0           
 74. North Texas            Amer  9-3  21-9   25-5   23.7  -7.2   0.0   0.0           
 79. Northern Iowa          MVC   7-5  20-11  23-8   19.9  +5.3   0.0   0.0           
 83. Florida Atlantic       Amer  7-6  20-11  22-9   16.4  -6.3   0.0   0.0           

Northern Iowa had a mixed week with a positive spin; they fell to Washington State 76-68 on a neutral court, but the loss was expected. They also beat Montana 104-76 when they were expected to win by less than 10 points, so their Dance Chance odds jumped 5.3% in the end. North Texas had one of the more interesting weeks, winning three games but falling 7.2%!! The Mean Green beat Mississippi Valley 83-42, Appalachian State 68-64, and Houston Christian 62-46, all at home. The first game was a blowout against arguably the worst team in Division I which exceeded expectations, but they next two did not, especially the App State game. In the end it lowered their Strength rating by 3 points, and another game affected their Strength, too: Stephen F Austin beat Texas Wesleyan by 26 points, and back in November the Mean Green beat Texas Wesleyan just 73-66. That docked them another 1.5 points! All in all their projection changed by just 1 game, from 22-8 to 21-9, but it makes the American Athletic conference look like a certain 1-bid league. Florida Atlantic getting off to a 7-6 start doesn't help on that front.

Wichita State also stumbled, losing to Kansas City (formerly known as UMKC) 74-64 at home, meaning every decent AAC team was down from last week. The Big East saw DePaul lose twice by 20+ points but Georgetown started the conference season 2-0 with wins over Creighton and Seton Hall; last year the Hoyas won two conference games TOTAL. Loyola Chicago lost to Oakland in Hawaii, their 2nd loss in 3 outings, both on neutral courts and putting them in single digits for at-large hopes.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 85. DePaul                 BE    8-4  16-15  15-16  14.5  -5.3   0.0   0.0           
 86. Georgetown             BE   10-2  17-14  14-17  13.8  +7.4   0.0   0.0           
 94. Stanford               ACC   9-3  18-13  19-12  11.6  -7.4   0.0   0.0           
 98. Wichita St.            Amer  9-3  21-10  22-9   10.7  -5.2   0.0   0.0           
106. Loyola Chicago         A10   9-2  18-11  19-10   8.3  -6.8   0.0   0.0           
130. UC Santa Barbara       BW    7-5  19-12  21-10   3.3  -5.2   0.0   0.0           
146. James Madison          SB    6-6  19-11  23-7    1.5  -5.1   0.0   0.0           
212. Merrimack              MAAC  5-8  17-14  22-9    0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   16p  16p
277. Colgate                PAT   3-10 13-18  16-15   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0        16p

Stanford not only lost to Oregon but got a scare from Merrimack, winning just 74-68. Not that's not deja vu, Merrimack lost to St. Mary's 73-68 and at Stanford 74-68. Their Strength jumped from #231 to #198 but their Dance Chance odds remained 0.1%, which still seems generous for a 5-8 team in a minor conference. The Warriors are the favorite to win the Metro Atlantic, however. Colgate was last week's favorite in the Patriot League but this week they're in 4th place following a 79-73 home loss to Iona which gave the Raiders a 3-10 start (only one team in the Patriot has a winning record so far). Both UC Santa Barbara and James Madison lost twice last week and shed most of their slim remaining hopes to get in the Dance any other way than winning the Big West and Sun Belt tournaments, respectively.

2024 Week 6: Auburn still on fire; Big Ten logjam in the middle of the pack

Auburn's 91-53 dismantling of Ohio State, on a technically neutral court, rates as the most impressive game of the season, edging past Gonzaga's opening-week 101-63 dusting of Baylor. The Tigers obviously keep their overall 1-seed and are already nearly lock-status for the tournament in mid-December. In fact their 1-seed odds are as good as Iowa State's odds to make the tournament!

Tennessee is also looking great for a 1-seed after a clutch 66-64 win at Illinois. Duke even slides in as 1-seed, probably because they hold the only win over Auburn (it wasn't the win over Incarnate Word last week). And Gonzaga holds on to their 1-seed despite falling to UConn 77-71. The Zags' 1-seed odds took yet another hit and now they stand at around 10%, only 11th highest 1-seed odds. The reason they are still 4th is that their path is less risky; their upside is low but there's little downside or so it seems.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   9-1  27-4   30-1   99.7  +1.0  87.1 +13.4    1    1 
  2. Tennessee              SEC  10-0  27-4   30-1   97.9  +1.7  61.7  +6.3    1    1 
  3. Duke                   ACC   8-2  27-4   29-2   96.7  +2.8  38.7  +9.3    1    2 
  4. Gonzaga                WCC   7-3  27-4   28-3   95.0  +0.7  10.4  -8.7    1    1 
  5. Kentucky               SEC  10-1  24-7   26-5   94.0  -0.3  37.8  -6.3    2    1 
  6. Houston                B12   6-3  25-6   28-3   92.5  +0.4  17.2  -1.4    2    2 
  7. Alabama                SEC   8-2  23-8   25-6   91.7  +0.8  33.0  +1.6    2    2 
  8. Marquette              BE    9-2  25-6   28-3   87.8  +0.5  11.1  -3.2    2    2 

Interestingly Kentucky, who holds wins over both Duke and Gonzaga, slips to a 2-seed despite adding two wins. The Wildcats were less than impressive in beating Colgate 78-67 and Louisville 93-85, both at home. The tough SEC schedule won't forgive middling performances like those. But that's the only change in the top 2 seeds, as Houston holds still and Marquette remains a 2 despite losing at Dayton 71-63. Alabama beat both North Carolina and Creighton in a solid week of play that keeps aspiring for the top of the killer SEC.

There are really just 11 teams that look like 1-seed contenders at this point, with a big drop-off beyond that. The eight teams above, of course, joined by Iowa State, Illinois, and Florida. The Cyclones had a strong week beating Iowa in Iowa City, and the Gators remain undefeated after soundly beating Virginia and Arizona State. The Illini lost a heartbreaker to Tennessee which saw them shed a lot of their 1-seed odds (missed opportunity) but they beat Wisconsin earlier in the week.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Iowa St.               B12   9-1  25-6   27-4   87.1  +6.5  14.3  +6.8    3    3 
 10. Illinois               B10   7-3  23-8   27-4   86.9  +0.6  15.5  -8.0    3    3 
 11. Florida                SEC  10-0  23-8   24-7   83.5  +6.5  16.1  +4.8    3    4 
 16. UCLA                   B10   9-1  23-8   26-5   77.1 +14.4   4.3  +2.3    4    8 
 17. Mississippi St.        SEC   9-1  21-10  24-7   71.5  -0.1   5.8  -0.5    5    5 
 18. Memphis                Amer  8-2  25-6   28-3   70.8 +10.4   0.2  +0.2    5    8 

Mississippi State ranks as the #6 team in the SEC, and they barely edged a solid McNeese team on Saturday, 66-63. Memphis continues to surprise with an overtime win at Clemson and climbs to a 5-seed. Though Illinois remains the top Big Ten team UCLA positions themselves as a contender after beating Arizona 57-54 for a 9-1 start; the Bruins Dance Chance goes up 14.8%, the biggest gain this week inside the seedings.

Speaking of the Big Ten, no league is wider-open right now. In addition to the pair above, five teams are logjammed together at the 5- and 6-lines. Penn State takes a step back after losing to Rutgers and Purdue lost to Texas A&M in Indianapolis, but Oregon, Michigan, and Michigan State make modest gains toward the Dance. The Wolverines move up despite losing to Arkansas in New York; they're still adjusting upward from last year's 8-24 team, the same way Purdue has yet to fully adjust downward from last year's NCAA runner-up squad. The Boilermakers take on overall 1-seed Auburn Saturday so it doesn't get any easier.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 19. Penn St.               B10   9-2  22-9   24-7   70.3  -1.5   2.6  -0.8    5    5 
 20. Purdue                 B10   8-3  20-11  23-8   70.3  -9.6   2.6  -6.9    5    3 
 21. Oregon                 B10  10-1  22-9   21-10  70.0  +3.3   2.2  -0.1    6    6 
 22. Michigan St.           B10   8-2  21-10  23-8   69.5  +1.0   2.2  -1.5    6    6 
 23. Michigan               B10   8-2  21-10  23-8   68.8  +5.2   1.9  -1.0    6    7 

Below, the ACC is falling into a familiar pattern of underperformance in the pre-conference season. Clemson lost to Memphis and North Carolina has already lost 4 games (all to good teams, though) going into a showdown vs. UCLA Saturday. Meanwhile the SEC continues to roll at all levels, with Texas A&M topping Purdue and Mississippi off to a 10-1 start after beating Southern Miss by 31 in Biloxi. The Atlantic 10's pride Dayton got a great win over Marquette to boost them to a 7-seed.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 24. Clemson                ACC   9-2  23-8   26-5   68.6  -1.4   0.4  -1.4    6    5 
 25. Texas A&M              SEC   9-2  20-11  19-12  67.3  +9.9   2.6  +0.7    7    9 
 27. Dayton                 A10   9-2  25-6   27-4   65.9 +10.3  <0.1   0.0    7   10 
 29. Ohio St.               B10   6-4  20-11  21-10  64.8  -9.3   1.6  -5.5    8    4 
 31. North Carolina         ACC   6-4  21-11  23-9   63.0  -1.0   0.9  -0.5    8    7 
 33. Wisconsin              B10   9-3  20-11  22-9   58.2  -3.1   0.4  -1.3    9    8 
 35. Saint Mary's           WCC   9-2  23-8   24-7   56.9  -1.7  <0.1  -0.1    9    9 
 38. Mississippi            SEC   9-1  19-12  19-12  55.5 +10.7   1.5  +1.1   10   12p
 39. UC Irvine              BW    9-1  27-5   30-2   55.4  -2.9  <0.1   0.0   10    9 

The Big Ten suffered quite a few setbacks this week, first among them Ohio State's huge loss to Auburn which knocked them down four seeds in one blow; they get a chance for redemption Saturday vs. Kentucky. Wisconsin did break a 3-game losing streak at Butler, 83-74, but their stock still fell slightly. And UC Irvine fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with a 67-55 loss to Oregon State. The Anteaters were expected to lose that game but now their Chalk projection is 30-2 as another future game tipped to a loss. Irvine doesn't have a lot of leeway for an at-large bid if they fail to win the Big West as they're pretty much out of committee-pleasing non-conference opportunities.

The Bubble: If Arkansas and Oklahoma both get in, that will be 13 SEC teams in the Dance by our estimation. Which is not good for the Razorbacks and Sooners. Arkansas flies in to an 11-seed after beating Michigan in New York, and Oklahoma is undefeated after topping Oklahoma State. It shows how tough the SEC is this season that Oklahoma is picked to go roughly .500 from here and finish a borderline NCAA team. If Nevada stays in they will make it three Mountain West teams, down from last year's six.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 41. Arkansas               SEC   9-2  19-12  20-11  52.5 +12.4   1.2  +0.9   11      
 42. Oklahoma               SEC  10-0  20-11  18-13  52.4  +0.8   0.7  -0.6   11   10 
 43. Arizona                B12   4-5  18-13  21-10  52.3 -11.0   0.3  -1.2   11    7 
 44. Nevada                 MWC   8-3  23-8   25-6   52.2  +1.5   0.0   0.0   11p  11 
 45. Texas Tech             B12   7-2  20-11  19-12  51.5  -0.1   0.1  -0.1   11p  10 
 46. SMU                    ACC   9-2  22-9   25-6   50.9  +6.4  <0.1  -0.1   12p     
 47. Drake                  MVC   9-0  26-4   30-0   49.8  +4.6   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 48. BYU                    B12   8-2  19-12  20-11  47.1  -4.1  <0.1  -0.4   12p  11 

The Big Twelve has 8 teams in our seeding but that includes the three bubble teams above: Arizona, who lost to UCLA and is off to a 4-5 start; Texas Tech, who lost to Texas A&M in Ft. Worth but treads just above the waterline; and BYU who won twice last week but continues to correct downward from last year's 6-seed. New in the hunt is SMU who jumps in after beating LSU, and undefeated Drake remains where they've been for a while: in, but not "in" enough to be safe from a Missouri Valley tournament loss. The Bulldogs beat non-D-I St. Ambrose 90-35 is last week's most lopsided and least important game.

Below the bubble: Washington State dipped down to the First Team Out, and two other West Coast teams hope to give the conference a third bid: San Francisco is in this area as usual and Oregon State joins the First Four Out. Both gave undefeated teams their first loss over the weekend; the Dons beat Loyola-Chicago and the Beavers topped UC Irvine, the latter win being much more impactful. Two more Big Twelve teams sit here, making it 5 on the bubble. West Virginia's odds improved the most of any team in the nation as they beat NC Central and Bethune Cookman by 34 and 23, making a believer out of our algorithm which started the Mountaineers with last year's 9-23 rating. It also showed less confidence in Utah's chances in the Big Twelve, where the Utes are now team #10 of 16.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 49. Washington St.         WCC   9-2  22-9   24-7   46.9  -1.6  <0.1   0.0        11p
 50. West Virginia          B12   8-2  18-13  17-14  45.7 +15.9   0.1  +0.1           
 51. Utah                   B12   7-2  19-12  20-11  44.5  -6.0   0.2  -0.2        11p
 52. Oregon St.             WCC   7-2  21-8   23-6   44.3 +10.2  <0.1   0.0           
 53. San Francisco          WCC   9-2  22-9   24-7   43.2  -0.8   0.0   0.0           
 54. Boise St.              MWC   7-3  22-9   23-8   42.8  +1.4   0.0   0.0           
 55. VCU                    A10   9-2  24-7   27-4   42.0  +1.8   0.0   0.0           
 56. Iowa                   B10   8-3  18-13  17-14  39.4  -1.0  <0.1  -0.1           

Boise State is team #4 in the Mountain West; they beat St. Mary's in overtime but it didn't give them much of a boost. VCU is team #2 in the Atlantic 10 could help them if push comes to shove, and the Rams beat the MWC's Colorado State in Nevada and play another MWC team, Nevada, next. And Iowa is playing about exactly as expected week to week and remaining right here, under the waterline. The Hawkeyes lost to rival Iowa State 89-80, then took out their frustrations on New Orleans, 104-57. They are a very distant #11 in the Big Ten right now.

UC San Diego is a very distant #2 in the Big West but they could challenge UC Irvine. So far the Tritons have had an interesting year, playing San Diego State close and winning the 8-team Boardwalk Battle all the way over in Daytona Beach, to a 9-2 start. Their biggest test yet is at Utah State on Tuesday. Meanwhile in the ACC, two turnaround teams will clash when Florida State hosts Louisville. The Seminoles are 8-3 after going 9-23 two years ago, and the Cardinals are 6-5 after going 8-24 last year. Meanwhile Arizona State is off to an 8-2 start despite losing to Florida on Saturday; the Sun Devils were 14-18 last season.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 57. UC San Diego           BW    9-2  25-7   28-4   38.4  +5.8   0.0   0.0           
 59. Florida St.            ACC   8-3  20-11  22-9   35.1  +0.1   0.0   0.0           
 62. Arizona St.            B12   8-2  18-13  15-16  34.8  +4.5   0.0   0.0           
 63. Louisville             ACC   6-5  19-12  20-11  34.1  +4.5   0.0   0.0           
 64. Indiana                B10   8-3  17-14  13-18  33.4  -4.6  <0.1   0.0           
 65. Liberty                CUSA 10-1  25-6   29-2   32.5  -1.1   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 66. Vanderbilt             SEC   9-1  17-14  13-18  32.3  +5.8  <0.1   0.0           
 69. Northwestern           B10   8-3  17-14  17-14  29.2  -6.1   0.0   0.0           

Indiana also seems much improved though they fell at Nebraska 85-68 last Friday, while Northwestern apparently didn't beat Georgia Tech by enough (11 points) to keep from shedding 6% of their odds. The outlook for both teams in the Big Ten isn't great given so many teams rank above them. Vanderbilt is in much the same boat in the SEC, though the Commodores beat Virginia Tech and TCU last week and are 9-1, matching last year's win total already! And Liberty is 10-1 and faces a soft schedule going forward which could leave them with a gaudy record if they cruise through Conference-USA like they should.

LSU continues to rebuild after two rough seasons. They were 2-16 in the SEC in 2023 and 9-9 last year, but this year's conference is at another level. 8-2 after losing to SMU, the Tigers will relax vs. three cupcakes before the New Year and conference play. The three Big East teams below had mixed results, with Xavier (beat Morgan State by 61 points and only lost at Cincy by 3) and DePaul (took Providence into overtime and beat Wichita State by 19) improving but Butler taking a big hit by losing to North Dakota State at home, then falling to Wisconsin too.

                                      Record              Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf Curr  Proj   Chalk %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 70. LSU                    SEC   8-2  16-15  13-18  28.4  -5.9  <0.1  -0.1           
 76. Xavier                 BE    8-3  17-14  16-15  22.1  +6.8   0.0   0.0           
 79. Butler                 BE    7-4  16-15  17-14  21.1 -15.3   0.0   0.0           
 81. DePaul                 BE    8-2  17-14  16-15  19.8  +8.7   0.0   0.0           
 89. N.C. State             ACC   7-4  17-14  18-13  15.3  -9.9   0.0   0.0           
102. North Dakota St.       Sum  10-4  22-9   24-7    9.2  +7.9   0.0   0.0           
116. Akron                  MAC   6-3  20-9   22-7    6.6  -5.3   0.0   0.0        14 
127. Colorado St.           MWC   5-5  15-16  15-16   5.1  -6.4   0.0   0.0           

NC State lost to Kansas 75-60 but what hurt more was only beating Coppin State—#362 of 364 in Strength—by 10 points at home. Akron was the MAC favorite until last weekend's 100-81 loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. And Colorado State's loss to VCU puts the Rams at 5-5, expected to finish 15-16 after a 25-11 campaign last season.

2024 week 5: Can the SEC get three 1-seeds?

Auburn tasted defeat for the first time, falling to Duke 84-78 last Wednesday. But the Tigers already have wins over Houston and Iowa State and rank near the top of the Strength power rating, so a road loss to another top seed doesn't kick them out of the projected overall 1-seed spot. In fact their odds of getting a 1-seed increased to nearly 3 in 4 after a 98-54 blowout of Richmond. With new AP #1 Tennessee undefeated and Kentucky surging after beating Gonzaga last Saturday, the SEC has three projected 1-seeds! Can it stay this way until March?

History says it's not likely; only in 2009 and 2019 has a conference had three 1-seeds. Tennessee has over 50% odds now while Kentucky—who lost to Clemson before the Gonzaga win—comes in at 44% Two 1-seeds happens almost every other year so we'll call that the likely scenario for the SEC. Gonzaga fell to just 19.1% in 1-seed odds while Duke is up to 29.4% but the Zags hang on, barely, to the last 1-spot. Gonzaga needs big wins in the pre-conference season to get a 1-seed, as their opportunities dry up in January in the WCC. The Bulldogs face UConn on Saturday.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   8-1  27-4   30-1   98.7  +1.1  73.7  +6.7    1    1 
  2. Tennessee              SEC   8-0  26-5   29-2   96.2  +2.1  55.4  +7.8    1    1 
  3. Kentucky               SEC   8-1  24-7   27-4   94.3  +3.6  44.1  +8.1    1    2 
  4. Gonzaga                WCC   7-2  27-4   29-2   94.3  +0.6  19.1 -13.4    1    1 
  5. Duke                   ACC   7-2  26-5   29-2   93.9  +6.9  29.4 +11.4    2    2 
  6. Houston                B12   5-3  25-6   28-3   92.1  +1.1  18.6  -0.9    2    1 
  7. Alabama                SEC   7-2  23-8   25-6   90.9  +4.6  31.4  +5.8    2    2 
  8. Marquette              BE    9-1  26-5   29-2   87.3  +6.1  14.3  +4.6    2    3

For Duke, it was three's a charm, the Blue Devils having lost to Kentucky and Kansas in nail-biters before finally winning a big one. Houston's 1-seed odds dipped to 18.6%; despite beating Butler 79-51, they lost most of their big pre-conference games including one to Alabama, whose 1-seed odds are 4th best at 31.4%. A lot of that is due to opportunity in the SEC season, though they did just beat North Carolina. And new 2-seed Marquette had a split week, with Saturday's win over WIsconsin more than making for their first loss at Iowa State days before.

Only two other teams have double-digits odds for getting a 1-seed presently, Illinois and Florida. Florida, like Alabama, has the rich SEC season to mine for Quad-1 wins.The Illini are tops in the Big Ten despite their overtime loss to Northwestern on Friday which knocked them to a 3-seed; they face Tennessee on Saturday. Three other Big Ten teams below are looking to replace Purdue at the top: Ohio State slipped a bit with an 83-59 loss at Maryland, who parlayed that into a 3-seed-level gain despite losing on the road to Purdue on Sunday. Penn State keeps exceeding expectations as they actually topped the Boilermakers 81-70 on Thursday.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Illinois               B10   6-2  23-8   27-4   86.3  +3.0  23.5  +1.0    3    2 
 13. Florida                SEC   9-0  23-8   25-6   77.0  +5.2  11.3  +1.1    4    5 
 14. Pittsburgh             ACC   8-2  24-7   27-4   74.2  -2.3   2.1  -5.0    4    3 
 15. Ohio St.               B10   6-3  21-10  23-8   74.1  -0.4   7.1  -2.2    4    4 
 16. Maryland               B10   8-2  24-8   25-7   74.0 +14.6   3.5  +2.2    4    7 
 17. Penn St.               B10   8-1  23-8   25-6   71.8 +12.9   3.4  +2.0    5    8 
 19. Kansas                 B12   7-2  21-10  22-9   71.3  -2.9   3.4  -5.7    5    4 
 20. Clemson                ACC   9-1  24-7   26-5   70.0 +15.8   1.8  +1.3    5   10 
 24. Cincinnati             B12   7-1  22-9   25-6   64.4  -7.8   2.2  -5.4    6    4 

Clemson had a big week, jumping from a 10-seed to a 5-seed on the strength of a 70-66 win over 1-seed Kentucky. It didn't hurt that Kentucky beat Gonzaga later last week, nor that Penn State is off to an 8-1 start too. ACC-mates Pitt suffered a setback with a 90-57 loss to Mississippi State. In the Big Twelve both Kansas and Cincy lost ground; the Bearcats lost to Villanova 68-60 while the #1 AP Jayhawks lost twice, first to Creighton 76-63, then Missouri 76-67, both on the road. 

Most of the new 7-seeds got there by falling from above, like North Carolina who lost to Alabama 94-79 at home then beat Georgia Tech by just three points. Arizona crushed Southern Utah 102-66 but their 4 losses are catching up to them as our power ratings further separate them from last year's results. And Utah State might have gotten ahead of themselves a bit, with their close call 70-67 home win over Wyoming the likely cause of their 1-seed-line drop. They're still undefeated though, and that's a rarity already in the college basketball world! Michigan bucked the trend by joining the 7-line from below, with a win at Wisconsin and narrow win over Iowa at home powering the Wolverines to an 8-1 start. The Badgers lost twice last week (also to Marquette), their first defeats of the season dropping them 3 seed lines.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 25. North Carolina         ACC   5-4  21-11  24-8   64.0  -7.5   1.4  -3.0    7    5 
 26. Michigan               B10   8-1  21-10  23-8   63.6 +12.8   2.9  +1.3    7   11 
 27. Arizona                B12   4-4  20-11  22-9   63.3  -4.5   1.5  -1.5    7    5 
 28. Utah St.               MWC   9-0  25-6   27-4   63.1  -3.0   1.0  -0.2    7    6 
 29. UCLA                   B10   8-1  21-10  22-9   62.7 +14.0   2.0  +0.9    8   11p
 31. Wisconsin              B10   8-2  20-11  22-9   61.3  -7.8   1.7  -4.1    8    5 
 32. Memphis                Amer  7-2  24-7   26-5   60.4  -0.4  <0.1  -0.5    8    7 
 38. Texas                  SEC   7-2  19-12  21-10  53.1  -3.5   1.2  -1.2   10    8 
 39. Oklahoma               SEC   9-0  20-11  18-13  51.6  -2.9   1.3  -0.4   10   10 
 40. Texas Tech             B12   7-2  20-11  20-11  51.6  -2.7   0.2  -1.0   10   10 

UCLA surged ahead by becoming the first team to beat Oregon, 73-71, on the road even; they face Arizona Saturday. Texas and Oklahoma are facing the reality of a very tough SEC schedule, which has the undefeated Sooners projected to go as bad as 9-13 going forward. Texas lost their undefeated record to UConn, 76-65 at home. Texas Tech, still in the Big Twelve, fell to Texas A&M 72-67 on Sunday.

The Bubble: Two Big Twelve teams dropped into the bubble region. BYU fell 83-64 to unheralded Providence while Utah lost 72-63 to St. Mary's at home. But the SEC was all successes here: Georgia improved their lost from a 12-seed play-in to the top 11-seed with a 69-48 win over Notre Dame, while Missouri and Mississippi scored wins over Kansas and Louisville respectively to give the Southeast Conference a gaudy TWELVE teams in our seedings. That's crazy—and probably too good to last the conference season, much like their three 1-seeds.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev 41. Georgia                SEC   8-1  19-12  18-13  51.3  +6.6   1.5  +0.8   11   12p
 42. BYU                    B12   6-2  20-11  23-8   51.2 -12.6   0.4  -3.0   11    6 
 43. Nevada                 MWC   6-3  23-8   24-7   50.7 -11.2   0.0  -0.3   11    7 
 44. Utah                   B12   6-2  19-12  23-8   50.5  -5.6   0.4  -1.9   11p   9 
 45. Washington St.         WCC   8-2  22-9   24-7   48.5 +11.6  <0.1  -0.1   11p      
 46. Missouri               SEC   8-1  19-12  18-13  46.3  +8.7   0.7  +0.3   12p     
 47. Drake                  MVC   8-0  24-5   28-1   45.2  +0.3  <0.1  -0.1   12   12 
 48. Mississippi            SEC   8-1  18-13  15-16  44.8 +10.9   0.4  +0.2   12p     /pre>

Nevada's fall was Washington State's gain, literally, as the Cougars beat the Wolf Pack 68-57 in Pullman. The Cougars also beat Boise State while Nevada lost to Loyola Marymount, the result being both teams are 11-seeds now. Drake is still undefeated but still borderline.

Boise's loss to Washington State knocks them out of the seedings but the Broncos are still in the Last Four Out, along with SMU (beat Virginia 63-51 on Saturday), San Francisco (beat St. Louis 78-61 last week), and Iowa (beat Northwestern by a point and lost at Michigan by 2 points).

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 49. SMU                    ACC   8-2  21-10  24-7   44.5  +2.4   0.1   0.0           
 50. San Francisco          WCC   7-2  22-9   25-6   44.0  +1.5   0.0  -0.1           
 51. Boise St.              MWC   6-3  21-10  24-7   41.4  -7.8   0.0  -0.1        11p
 52. Iowa                   B10   7-2  18-13  16-15  40.4  +2.0   0.1  -0.3           
 53. VCU                    A10   7-2  23-8   27-4   40.2  +6.1   0.0   0.0           
 54. Arkansas               SEC   7-2  18-13  16-15  40.1  +3.7   0.3  +0.2           
 55. Indiana                B10   7-2  17-14  13-18  38.0  +6.7  <0.1  -0.2           
 56. Creighton              BE    7-3  18-13  20-11  37.8  +5.2  <0.1  -0.1           

VCU had a good week, beating Georgia Southern and Penn by 35 and 19, while Arkansas beat Miami and UTSA. Indiana beat Sam Houston and Miami (Ohio), while Creighton improved surprisingly little for beating Kansas 76-63 at home. They face Alabama this Saturday and winning that would put them back in the seedings for sure.

Two other teams dropped from last week's seedings: New Mexico and Nebraska. The Lobos lost to New Mexico State at home in overtime, and the Cornhuskers were crushed 89-52 by Michigan State, sinking their seasonal outlook to 16-13. McNeese lost to Santa Clara, putting them 4-4 on the year before beating non-D-I LeTourneau 103-69. The Cowboys are still favorites in their conference (the Southland) however. 

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg 1-seed %chg  seed prev
 58. New Mexico             MWC   7-3  21-10  23-8   35.5 -14.4   0.0  -0.1        11 
 64. Nebraska               B10   6-2  16-13  16-13  33.6 -10.1   0.2  -0.2        12p
 75. McNeese                Slnd  5-4  24-8   27-5   25.9 -10.3   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 79. Villanova              BE    6-4  17-14  16-15  21.4 +10.6   0.0   0.0           
 94. TCU                    B12   5-4  14-17  12-19  12.4 -10.3   0.0   0.0           
110. Washington             B10   6-3  14-17  10-21   8.9 -12.1   0.0  -0.1           

Villanova is 6-4 and barely projected to have a winning record, but that puts them a few wins within consideration and they're up 10% from last week after their upset of Cincinnati. TCU and Washington are both projected to have losing records and miss the tournament; the Horned Frogs are down to 12.4% after losing to Vanderbilt for a 5-4 start, while the Huskies are in single digits after losses to UCLA and USC in their inaugural Big Ten season.

Week 4 2024-25 recap: Auburn rolls, UConn collapses

Week 4 and things are really starting to happen in college basketball, mainly due to all the tournaments around Thanksgiving time that pit the best from all conferences. In some ways it's the best that college basketball gets until March Madness. Too bad it happens when it has to share the stage with college football, which is heading into the home stretch. Ah well.

Auburn once again came away the big winner and are completely deserving of the projected top seed, and now has a 2 in 3 chance to remain at the top line. The Tigers won the Maui Invitational, beating Iowa State, North Carolina, and a surging Memphis team. Right behind them is Tennessee, also 7-0 and 78-35 winners over UT-Martin last week, giving the SEC two solid 1-seeds. The rest of the 1-line didn't fare so well last week in extra periods, as Gonzaga lost in overtime to West Virginia and Houston lost 2 of 3 in the Players Era tourney in Las Vegas, both in overtime! Both teams are favored in every game going forward so they still project to the top line but Houston lost a whopping 14% of its odds to remain there.

                                       Record             Dance Chance 12/01/2024
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   7-0  27-4   31-0   97.6  +2.6  67.0 +10.8    1    1 
  2. Tennessee              SEC   7-0  26-5   29-2   94.1  +3.2  47.6  +9.5    1    1 
  3. Gonzaga                WCC   7-1  28-3   30-1   93.7  +0.3  32.5  -6.8    1    1 
  4. Houston                B12   4-3  25-6   28-3   91.0  -0.2  19.5 -14.0    1    1 
  5. Kentucky               SEC   7-0  25-6   27-4   90.7  +7.2  36.0 +14.3    2    2 
  6. Duke                   ACC   5-2  25-6   28-3   87.0  +1.3  18.0  -0.2    2    2 
  7. Alabama                SEC   6-2  22-9   25-6   86.3  +2.3  25.6  -1.7    2    2 
  8. Illinois               B10   6-1  24-7   28-3   83.3  +8.8  22.5  +9.6    2    3 

Alabama was one of the teams to edge Houston last week, though they lost to Oregon in the tourney final. Along with Kentucky, who now ranks as the 3rd most likely team to end up a 1-seed, and the SEC has four teams in the 1- and 2-seed lines; their performance in the pre-conference season makes the SEC look like the best conference in the post Pac-12 era. Duke, who lost to the Wildcats on a neutral court a few weeks ago, lost their 2nd close on a neutral court, this time to Kansas, 75-72 in Las Vegas. Meanwhile Illinois took the mantle of Big Ten leader with wins over Arkansas (90-77), and Little Rock (92-34!). Their only loss is to Alabama.

Purdue didn't lose last week but they continue to revise downward from being last year's #2 team. Last week they beat NC State by 10 and Ole Miss by just 2 points. And of course last year's #1 team is stumbling much worse, losing three straight last week and falling from a 2-seed to a 4-seed. UConn lost to Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton in the Maui Invitational. The last game was an 18 point loss, but the first two were overtime and by 1 point, so they could have gone either way. Kansas on the other hand is rebounding from last year's disappointing finish, as the win over Duke shows. The Jayhawks, #1 in the AP poll, move here from a 6-seed to a 4-seed.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 10. Purdue                 B10   7-1  23-8   28-3   79.6  -2.7  12.8  -5.3    3    3 
 14. Kansas                 B12   7-0  22-9   23-8   74.2 +14.0   9.1  +4.3    4    6 
 15. Connecticut            BE    5-3  23-8   27-4   73.3 -14.2   3.3 -21.8    4    2 
 17. Florida                SEC   8-0  22-9   24-7   71.8 +12.5  10.2  +5.7    5    6 
 18. North Carolina         ACC   4-3  23-9   25-7   71.5  -0.1   4.4  -3.8    5    4 
 20. Arizona                B12   3-4  20-11  25-6   67.8  -7.1   3.0  -4.7    5    3 
 26. Oregon                 B10   8-0  21-10  22-9   61.1 +18.2   2.0  +0.9    7   12p

North Carolina didn't have much luck in Maui; they beat Dayton but fell to Auburn and then Michigan State in overtime. And Arizona has gotten off to a 3-4 start following losses to Oklahoma and West Virginia in the Bahamas. But Florida is on the move winning the ESPN Events tourney beating Wake Forest and crushing Wichita State 88-51, moving up two seeds. And Oregon is surging; the Ducks won the Players Era tournament in Las Vegas by beating Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama, going from a bubble team play-in to a solid 7-seed!

A team that almost made the biggest splash possible is Memphis. The Tigers upset UConn (before everyone was doing it), then beat Michigan State before falling to Auburn in the Maui final. Still, they jump from a near-bubble 11-seed to a 7-seed. Maryland gained 10% in the Dance Chance the old-fashioned way, however: beating up on hapless foes like Bucknell (91-67) and Alcorn State (96-58). Big Ten compatriot Penn State lost ground (2 seeds) after losing to Clemson in the Sunshine Slam tourney in Daytona, while the Tigers jumped to a 10-seed.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 27. Memphis                Amer  6-1  24-7   27-4   60.8 +14.4   0.5  +0.4    7   11 
 28. Maryland               B10   7-1  22-10  23-9   59.4 +10.0   1.3  +0.1    7    9 
 30. Penn St.               B10   7-1  21-10  23-8   58.9  -0.3   1.4  -2.1    8    6 
 32. Texas                  SEC   6-1  20-11  21-10  56.6  -2.0   2.4  -0.6    8    7 
 36. San Diego St.          MWC   4-2  21-8   23-6   55.5 +15.0   0.1   0.0    9      
 38. Dayton                 A10   6-2  24-7   26-5   54.5 +13.3  <0.1   0.0   10   12 
 40. Clemson                ACC   7-1  22-9   25-6   54.2 +11.7   0.5  -0.1   10   12p

Texas apparently dropped a seed for not beating Delaware State by enough (90-68), or perhaps the strengthening SEC is making their future look a bit grim? As mentioned above, San Diego State had a strong showing in Vegas, beating Creighton, falling to Oregon, but rebounding by beating 1-seed Houston in overtime; that was enough to make them a 9-seed after being unseeded last week. And Dayton improved their outlook despite dropping 2 of 3 games in Maui: the Flyers lost to North Carolina by 2, to Iowa State by 5, then beat Connecticut by 18. 

Top of the bubble: The SEC has 10 teams in the seeding right now so anyone on the bubble from that conference is questionable. Texas A&M seems in pretty good shape after their 2-1 Players Era showing (loss to Oregon, beat Creighton and Rutgers), while Georgia enters as a play-in team after crushing Jacksonville 102-56. The Mountain West bubble teams rarely get the nod, however, and right now New Mexico (who beat USC but lost to Arizona State in Palm Springs) and Boise State (who lost to Boston College in the Cayman Islands Classic final) are very borderline. Drake shouldn't count in a bubble bid, either, but they're favored to win the Missouri Valley.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 41. Texas A&M              SEC   6-2  18-13  19-12  52.2  +2.3   2.3  -1.0   11    9 
 42. Michigan               B10   6-1  19-12  19-12  50.8 +14.5   1.6  +1.0   11      
 43. New Mexico             MWC   6-2  22-9   25-6   49.9  +0.9   0.1   0.0   11   10 
 44. Boise St.              MWC   5-2  22-9   25-6   49.2  -2.0  <0.1  -0.3   11p   9 
 45. UCLA                   B10   6-1  19-12  17-14  48.7 +11.3   1.1  +0.7   11p      
 46. Drake                  MVC   7-0  24-5   28-1   44.9  -3.4  <0.1   0.0   12   10 
 47. Georgia                SEC   7-1  19-12  16-15  44.7 +11.0   0.7  +0.5   12p     
 48. Nebraska               B10   6-1  17-12  17-12  43.7  +2.2   0.4  -0.3   12p     

The Big Ten has three teams that are, at this early stage, right in the cusp: Michigan enters as an 11-seed after beating Virginia Tech and Xavier in the Fort Myers Tip-Off; UCLA comes in as a play-in following an 88-43 win over Southern Utah (only loss: New Mexico); and Nebraska is the last team in this week after a 6-1 start. That makes 11 Big Ten teams in the seedings, so borderline teams probably won't make it.

Another Big Ten team, Iowa, has been just below the bubble for three weeks now. For them, and for SEC teams Missouri and Arkansas, being below the waterline would mean being left out. The Razorbacks lost to the Big Ten's Illinois last week but also beat MD Eastern Shore 119-35, raising their Dance Chance odds over 10%. The problem is they have a good chance to finish with a losing record. For SMU and Florida State life is easier, since there are only four ACC teams in the seedings and competition in that league should be easier. The Mustangs won the Acrisure Holiday Invitational in Palm Springs while the Seminoles are off to their best start since 2020. They went 9-23 two years ago, if you recall.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 49. San Francisco          WCC   6-2  22-9   25-6   42.5  -4.3  <0.1   0.0        10 
 50. SMU                    ACC   6-2  21-10  24-7   42.1  +8.9  <0.1   0.0           
 51. Iowa                   B10   6-1  18-13  16-15  38.4  +2.4   0.4  +0.1           
 52. Missouri               SEC   6-1  18-13  16-15  37.6  +7.2   0.4  +0.1           
 53. Florida St.            ACC   7-1  20-11  20-11  37.1  +5.5  <0.1   0.0           
 54. Washington St.         WCC   6-2  21-10  23-8   36.9  -9.5  <0.1  -0.2        11 
 55. Butler                 BE    6-1  19-12  18-13  36.6 +12.8  <0.1   0.0           
 56. Arkansas               SEC   5-2  17-14  15-16  36.4 +10.9   0.1   0.0           

San Francisco and Washington State hope to make the West Coast Conference more than a two-bid league but both drop out this week. The Dons lost to Clemson in Dayton Beach but are the First Team Out right now, while new conference member WSU fell to SMU in Palm Spring. Butler from the Big East won a tournament in Tempe to get back near the action.

Speaking of the Big East, stalwart Creighton is flailing a bit, dropping out of the seedings after losing two of three games in the Players Era tournament in Las Vegas. And Florida Atlantic's up-and-down early season has veered to the downside with a home loss to Florida Gulf Coast, their 3rd in a row, putting the Owls at 4-5. They beat Indiana State badly in the opener, but the Sycamores are not last year's team, either, as they have showed via a 5-4 start, the latest loss coming in Nassau to Arkansas State. They rebounded to beat Iona and Tarleton State, but their tournament odds are a dismal 4.7% now. Louisiana Tech is another mid-major falling on hard times with a 73-70 home loss to Southern. Though the 7-1 Bulldogs should finish with a stellar record, their light CUSA schedule won't do them any favors. They play Memphis on Wednesday which is their last chance to get a notable win.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 63. Creighton              BE    5-3  18-13  21-10  32.6 -12.0  <0.1  -0.2        11p
 64. Florida Atlantic       Amer  4-5  20-11  24-7   31.7 -13.1   0.0  -0.1        11 
 65. Louisville             ACC   5-2  18-13  16-15  31.5 +17.6  <0.1  +0.1           
 70. West Virginia          B12   5-2  16-15  12-19  27.7 +17.6  <0.1  +0.1           
 73. Louisiana Tech         CUSA  7-1  23-8   28-3   25.4 -12.6   0.0  -0.1        12 
 75. Arizona St.            B12   7-1  16-15  11-20  24.8 +11.1   0.1  +0.1           
 76. TCU                    B12   4-3  15-16  16-15  22.7 -13.3   0.0  -0.3           
 82. Stanford               ACC   6-2  17-14  20-11  17.5 -12.4   0.0  -0.1           
127. Miami FL               ACC   3-4  13-18  15-16   7.0 -11.8   0.0   0.0           
146. Indiana St.            MVC   5-4  17-14  20-11   4.7 -12.8   0.0   0.0           

The Big Twelve had mixed results, with TCU losing both of its games in the Acrisure Invitational but Arizona State won the Acrisure Classic (one of three Acrisure Palm Springs tournaments, yeah that's not confusing as fuck...). And West Virginia played THREE overtime games in the Battle 4 Atlantis, beating 1-seed Gonzaga, losing to Louisville, and beating Arizona. The Cardinals, like Florida State, are looking to turn the program around from disastrous previous seasons and so far, so good as they finished 2nd in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Other ACC teams above didn't fare so well last week: Stanford lost to Grand Canyon and Cal Poly, while Miami lost their 4th game in a row, this time at home to Charleston Southern.

2024-2025 Week 3 Dance Chance Update

Let's see what happened last week, up until Sunday's games (the 24th):

Auburn and Gonzaga solidified their hold on the 1-seed; Auburn's only game was a 102-69 win over North Alabama while Gonzaga beat San Diego State 80-67 and Long Beach State 84-41. Since then, however, Auburn has added wins over Iowa State and North Carolina, so don't expect them to lose their 1-seed, even if they lose to Memphis, the other "it" team right now (see below...). Houston, however, might not have a 1-seed next week after losing to Alabama Tuesday night, but before that they were 3-1 following an 80-44 win over Hofstra. And Tennessee joined the 1-seeds after crushing Virginia and Baylor by 22 and 15 points in the Bahamas.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   4-0  24-5   29-0   95.0  +4.0  56.2 +11.3    1    1 
  2. Gonzaga                WCC   5-0  27-2   28-1   93.4  +7.0  39.3 +14.6    1    1 
  3. Houston                B12   3-1  26-5   30-1   91.2  +2.1  33.5  -3.1    1    1 
  4. Tennessee              SEC   6-0  26-5   30-1   90.9  +8.5  38.1 +11.6    1    2 
  5. Connecticut            BE    4-0  25-4   29-0   87.5  +3.2  25.1  -0.2    2    1 
  6. Duke                   ACC   4-1  26-5   28-3   85.7 +10.1  18.2  +5.3    2    3 
  7. Alabama                SEC   4-1  23-8   25-6   84.0  +6.9  27.3  +7.5    2    2 
  8. Kentucky               SEC   5-0  24-7   26-5   83.5 +10.7  21.7  +7.1    2    3 

UConn slipped from the 1-seed column and that was before their losses to Memphis and Colorado, so look for a bigger fall next Monday. Same goes for Duke, who moved up to a 2-seed after beating Arizona 69-55 on the road but fell to Kansas on Monday. Alabama held their 2-seed by beating Illinois and might be moving up since they beat Houston. Lots of interplay among the top seeds! And Kentucky joined the 2-seeds based on dominant performances against Jackson State and Lipscomb, and they don't face any tough teams until next week.

Purdue continues to correct from last year's rating, down another seed after losing to Marquette 76-58, a result that brings the Eagles up to the 3-line as well. As noted, Arizona and Illinois lost last week to Duke and Alabama. Starting at 2-2 dropped the Wildcat's 1-seed chances from 24.2% to just 7.7%.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  9. Purdue                 B10   5-1  23-7   27-3   82.3  -0.7  18.1  -8.2    3    2 
 10. Marquette              BE    6-0  24-7   27-4   76.6 +14.6   8.2  +2.9    3    4 
 11. Arizona                B12   2-2  21-8   26-3   74.9  -5.9   7.7 -16.5    3    2 
 12. Illinois               B10   4-1  23-8   28-3   74.5  +1.8  12.9  -1.6    3    3 
 15. Iowa St.               B12   3-0  20-9   25-4   67.3  -1.4   8.3  -4.8    4    4 
 16. Ohio St.               B10   4-1  21-10  24-7   66.9 +17.1   8.1  +4.8    4    9 
 20. BYU                    B12   5-0  21-9   24-6   61.6  -1.0   4.4  -4.4    5    4 
 28. Saint Mary's           WCC   6-0  23-7   24-6   55.1  -4.3   0.8  -1.6    7    5 
 32. Michigan St.           B10   4-1  19-10  24-5   52.9  -4.1   2.9  -1.6    8    6 
 36. Maryland               B10   5-1  21-11  19-13  49.4 +13.7   1.2  +0.8    9      

Iowa State's odds actually slipped a bit from their 87-52 win over IU Indianapolis (formerly IUPUI), and this was before the Auburn loss which might actually help their power rating as they lost just 83-81 on a neutral court in Maui; they also beat Dayton so they might even move up! Ohio State leads a trio of Big Ten teams here, jumping from a NINE seed after beating Evansville by 50 and Campbell by 44. Maryland also had a good last week, beating Canisius 108-37 (!!) and Villanova 76-75. Michigan State's week wasn't as good; the Spartans struggled with Samford at home, winning by 8 points, enough to drop them two seeds. A bit harsh, maybe, but you struggle with Samford your rating goes down. Same thing happened to BYU and St. Mary's; the Cougars beat Mississippi Valley State 87-43 and that wasn't good enough to improve their Dance Chance odds! (MV is the worst-rated team in Kenpom) St. Mary's beat two Cal State teams, Stanislaus (non D-I) and Poly by 40 and 14.

Below: the bubble. Drake looks like the Missouri Valley winner right now, and they improved their bid odds by 18.6% by beating Miami, Florida Atlantic, and Vanderbilt to win the Charleston Classic. Speaking of the Owls, the dropped from a 6 to an 11 after losing twice in that tournament to start 4-4; they're still above the selection line but now Memphis is the favorite in the American Athletic conference—and this is before Memphis went on their crazy run this week beating UConn and Michigan State; they face Auburn tonight and if they win that, imagine where they will place in next Monday's Dance Chance?

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 38. Drake                  MVC   6-0  24-5   28-1   48.3 +18.6  <0.1   0.0   10   12 
 39. Texas Tech             B12   5-1  20-11  20-11  48.2  -5.2   1.6  -3.2   10    7 
 40. San Francisco          WCC   4-1  22-8   24-6   46.8  -1.2   0.1  -0.8   10   10 
 41. Washington St.         WCC   5-1  21-9   23-7   46.4  -1.6   0.3  -0.5   11   10 
 42. Memphis                Amer  4-0  21-8   24-5   46.4  +7.2   0.1   0.0   11      
 43. Florida Atlantic       Amer  4-4  22-9   26-5   44.8 -11.4  <0.1   0.0   11    6 
 44. Creighton              BE    4-1  20-11  23-8   44.6  -5.5   0.3  -2.7   11p   9 
 45. Colorado               B12   4-0  18-11  17-12  44.0  -3.0   0.8  -1.9   11p  10 
 46. Oregon                 B10   5-0  19-12  20-11  42.9  +1.5   1.1  -1.0   12p  12p
 47. Clemson                ACC   4-1  19-11  24-6   42.5  +0.2   0.6  +0.1   12p  11p

Below are the teams just outside the bubble, including five Big Ten teams: Nebraska, Indiana, UCLA, Michigan, and Iowa. Nebraska is the first team out, which doesn't mean anything right now but there they are. They beat Creighton on the road which knocked the Bluejays from a 9-seed to the Last Four In, but it didn't quite project the 'Huskers to join them. UCLA's 33-point win over Fullerton State is what made them gain double digits.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 48. Nebraska               B10   4-1  17-12  17-12  41.5  +9.1   0.7  -0.2           
 49. Dayton                 A10   5-0  22-7   25-4   41.2  -0.5   0.1  -0.4   12   11 
 50. McNeese                Slnd  4-2  26-5   28-3   41.1  +9.3   0.0   0.0   12   12 
 51. San Diego St.          MWC   2-1  19-10  21-8   40.5  -3.2  <0.1  -0.8        11p
 52. Indiana                B10   4-0  17-12  15-14  38.5  +7.9   0.5  +0.3           
 53. Louisiana Tech         CUSA  4-0  22-6   26-2   38.0  +1.5   0.1   0.0   12   12 
 54. UCLA                   B10   5-1  17-14  14-17  37.4 +10.5   0.4   0.0           
 55. Michigan               B10   4-1  17-13  15-15  36.3  +9.5   0.6  +0.2           
 56. Iowa                   B10   5-1  18-13  17-14  36.0  -0.7   0.3  -0.7           
 57. TCU                    B12   4-1  17-13  19-11  36.0  -5.4   0.3  -0.6        12p

Dayton, McNeese, and Louisiana Tech are all bubble teams that shouldn't need to worry about making it above the line, as they are favored to win the Atlantic 10, the Southland, and Conference-USA respectively. TCU fell from the play-in line after their 76-64 loss to Michigan.

Below, some more teams who had good fortune or bad luck last week that affected their odds a lot. First the good: Georgia gained over 10% despite suffering a loss to 3-seed Marquette; they bounced back with a win over 8-seed St. John's. Both games were in the Bahamas, but not part of any tournament. Fellow SEC team Missouri racked up blowout wins over Pacific (91-56) and Pine Bluff (112-63), while Florida State improved to 6-1 with wins over Hofstra, Temple, and UMass last week.

Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 60. Georgia                SEC   6-1  18-13  16-15  33.7 +10.3   0.2  +0.1           
 63. Florida St.            ACC   6-1  19-12  19-12  31.6 +11.7  <0.1  +0.1           
 65. Missouri               SEC   5-1  17-14  16-15  30.4 +13.2   0.3  +0.3           
 87. Colorado St.           MWC   3-2  16-14  14-16  17.8 -11.6  <0.1   0.0           
 90. Charleston             CAA   4-2  20-9   22-7   16.4 -10.3   0.0   0.0   13   13 
 97. Grand Canyon           WAC   3-2  21-9   25-5   14.4 -11.0   0.0   0.0   13   13 
117. Virginia Tech          ACC   3-2  15-15  16-14  11.6 -14.0   0.0   0.0           
146. Massachusetts          A10   1-5  16-15  20-11   6.8 -10.3   0.0   0.0           

On the downside, Colorado State took a hit with two losses, to Ole Miss 84-69, and UC Riverside 77-75 in overtime at home. The Rams have to turn things around if they want to compete for a bid in the Mountain West, which is very competitive and gets no breaks from the Selection Committee. Virginia Tech's odds of getting a bid out of the ACC fell by more than half after the Hokies lost to Jacksonville at home, 74-64. And UMass isn't looking too good these days after a 1-5 start. Their schedule clears up a bit from here, but so far they aren't even winning the easier games.

Charleston and Grand Canyon both took hits to their at-large hopes, as the Cougars were crushed by Rhode Island 91-53 and Grand Canyon lost to UC Davis at home. But both teams are still the favorite in their conference; they'll just have to win their tournaments.

 

2024-25 Week 2 Dance Chance update

Week 2 and we have two new #1 seeds, Gonzaga and UConn. Gonzaga still riding the wave of their big win over Baylor, UConn moving up after posting larger-margins wins over their low-ranked opponents. Auburn and Houston stay put at #1 overall seed and #2.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
  1. Auburn                 SEC   3-0  24-5   29-0   91.0  +4.9  44.9 +10.0    1    1 
  2. Houston                B12   2-1  26-5   29-2   89.1  +6.1  36.6  +8.6    1    1 
  3. Gonzaga                WCC   3-0  25-4   28-1   86.4 +13.2  24.7 +11.6    1    2 
  4. Connecticut            BE    3-0  25-4   29-0   84.3  +4.1  25.3  +2.2    1    2  
  5. Purdue                 B10   4-0  24-6   29-1   83.0  -0.1  26.3  -7.5    2    1 
  6. Tennessee              SEC   4-0  24-6   28-2   82.4  +8.6  26.5  +9.4    2    2 
  7. Arizona                B12   2-1  22-7   28-1   80.8  -1.6  24.2  -8.5    2    1 
  8. Alabama                SEC   3-1  22-9   25-6   77.1  +7.4  19.8  -1.1    2    3 

Purdue is obviously adjusting to their new reality (our pre-season rankings were last season's rankings) and without Zack Edey they aren't a 1-seed. Still, they managed to beat Alabama 87-78 at home, but apparently that was a good thing for Alabama who moved up to a 2-seed! These seedings are prior to Purdue's loss to Marquette, so go figure. Arizona's fall from a 1-seed makes more sense, as they lost at Wisconsin 103-88.

That win boosted Wisconsin's Dance Chance by almost 13% and the Badgers move up to a 4-seed. Kentucky also got a big boost last week with a win over Duke in Atlanta, 77-72. And Cincinnati has posted three very solid wins so far, the latest over decent Nicholls, 86-49. But the big rebound of the week is Baylor, who shook off their huge Gonzaga loss with 104-67 and 104-41 wins over Sam Houston State and Tarleton State. They regained 6 of the 7 seed lines they lost in week one! Who said exciting things aren't happening in the NCAA bracket projections?

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 10. Kentucky               SEC   3-0  23-8   24-7   72.8 +12.2  14.6  +6.5    3    4 
 14. Wisconsin              B10   4-0  21-9   25-5   65.4 +12.8   6.8  +0.9    4    5 
 17. Cincinnati             B12   3-0  22-9   24-7   61.2 +11.7   6.4  +2.1    5    6 
 20. Baylor                 B12   3-1  19-11  19-11  58.6 +16.0   7.3  +3.2    5   11  
 22. Michigan St.           B10   3-1  19-10  26-3   57.0  -2.2   4.5  -4.5    6    4 
 24. Florida Atlantic       Amer  3-2  22-7   26-3   56.2  -3.6   0.1  -3.9    6    4 

News wasn't as good for Michigan State and Florida Atlantic. The Spartans fell to Kansas in Atlanta, and the Owls dropped two of three games last week, losing to UCF by 6, to Charleston in OT, and beating Liberty in OT. 

Texas Tech and Texas jumped to the 7-line, the Red Raiders mainly due to beating Wyoming 96-49, and the Longhorns from beating two very bad teams by 40+ point margins (and moving them back ahead of the team that beat them in week 1, Ohio State). Penn State made had another big week, beating Virginia Tech 86-64 in Baltimore. The Nittany Lions started at #87 in the pre-season, jumped to a 12-seed play-in team last week, and are now a projected 8-seed. For comparison, they started at #66 in KenPom and are now #33.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 27. Texas Tech             B12   3-0  20-10  20-10  53.4 +10.0   4.8  +1.9    7   10 
 28. Texas                  SEC   3-1  20-10  21-9   53.4 +11.0   3.7  +2.1    7   11  
 31. Penn St.               B10   4-0  21-9   25-5   52.0 +13.2   3.2  +2.0    8   12p
 35. Creighton              BE    4-0  21-10  26-5   50.1  -1.2   3.0  -1.4    9    6 
 37. Texas A&M              SEC   3-1  19-12  19-12  48.9 +11.3   2.4  +0.9   10      
 38. San Francisco          WCC   4-0  22-8   24-6   48.0 +11.8   0.9  +0.5   10      
 39. Washington St.         WCC   3-1  21-9   23-7   48.0  -1.3   0.8  -1.6   10    7 

Creighton and Washington State fell three seeds each, the Blue Jays despite logging two blowouts. Maybe beating Houston Christian by 35 isn't enough to hold a 6-seed? I dunno. The Cougars lost to Iowa in Moline, IL 76-66, and were favored based on last season's performance; clearly the Cougars suffered an exodus due to their conference dispersing, as they ended up in the West Coast Conference. Jumping in at 10-seed is another WCC team, San Francisco who beat Chicago State 82-37, and Texas A&M who rebounded from their loss to UCF by beating Ohio State 78-64. 

The bubble:

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 41. New Mexico             MWC   3-1  22-8   25-5   45.7  -6.1   0.4  -2.9   11    5 
 42. Oklahoma               SEC   3-0  19-10  22-7   45.7  +1.5   2.0  -0.4   11   10 
 43. San Diego St.          MWC   2-0  20-9   21-8   43.7  -5.2   0.9  -2.1   11p   7 
 44. Clemson                ACC   3-1  20-10  25-5   42.3  -6.9   0.5  -3.1   11p   7 
 45. Dayton                 A10   4-0  22-7   25-4   41.7  -6.2   0.5  -0.9   11    8  

The Mountain West race is hopefully going to be as good this year as it was last season. New Mexico opened as a 5-seed but last week's loss to St. John's (85-71) put them in their place. Another team that was great last year but not expected to do as well this season is San Diego State, and their 80-67 loss to Gonzaga has started the correction process. Oklahoma is a bubble team in their new conference, while Clemson's loss to Boise State put them on the bubble for now. Dayton is expected to win the Atlantic 10 but if they don't they might end up being a borderline at-large selection. Beating non-DI team Capitol just 76-55 does not instill confidence.

Oregon and TCU are the last two teams above the waterline. TCU lost to Michigan while Oregon needed overtime to beat Portland at home.

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 46. Oregon                 B10   4-0  19-12  20-11  41.4  -0.6   2.1  -0.5   12p  11p
 47. TCU                    B12   3-1  18-12  20-10  41.4  -3.5   0.9  -2.1   12p  10 
 48. Memphis                Amer  3-0  19-10  22-7   39.2  +7.1   0.1   0.0           
 49. Northwestern           B10   3-1  18-12  18-12  37.4  -4.0   0.7  -1.3        12p
 50. Iowa                   B10   4-0  18-13  18-13  36.7  -2.0   1.0  -0.4           
 51. Louisiana Tech         CUSA  3-0  22-6   27-1   36.5  +5.6  <0.1   0.0   12   12 
 52. Maryland               B10   3-1  19-13  19-13  35.7  +0.6   0.4  -0.4           

There's plenty of Big Ten on the bubble with Northwestern, Iowa, and Maryland all in the First Four Out (Louisiana Tech is expected to win the CUSA). The Wildcats slipped out of their play-in spot after needing overtime to top Eastern Illinois at home, while the Hawkeyes' win over Washington State surprisingly didn't move them into the seedings (they were First Four Out last week, too). 

                                       Record             Dance Chance
Rank Team                   Conf  Curr Proj  Chalk  %Odds  %chg  1seed %chg  seed prev
 63. Colorado St.           MWC   3-1  19-11  20-10  29.4 -12.0  <0.1  -1.2        11p
 67. Michigan               B10   2-1  15-15  10-20  26.8 +10.6   0.4  +0.3           
 84. Wake Forest            ACC   4-1  16-14  17-13  21.7 -10.7   0.1  -0.8           
100. Indiana St.            MVC   2-2  20-11  26-5   15.0 -12.2   0.0  -0.1           
123. James Madison          SB    2-2  19-9   24-4   11.3  -9.7   0.0   0.0        14 
140. Cornell                Ivy   3-1  18-9   21-6    9.0 -11.4   0.0   0.0

Other teams that made an impression last week, positive or negative, include: Colorado State, who dropped off the bubble after a 15-point loss to Mississippi; Michigan, winners over TCU; Wake Forest who fell 75-60 to Xavier; Indiana State, whose rating continues to get adjusted for this season's reality (losing to SI Edwardsville at home helped the process along); same goes for James Madison who lost to Towson 67-63; and Cornell who lost to La Salle 93-77.