All previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: 4
Record: 31-4
Conference: West Coast
vs.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Seed: 5
Record: 25-8
Conference: Big Ten
Date: Saturday, March 17
Time: 7:45 pm Eastern
Location: Boise, ID
Region: West
Channel: CBS
A solid 4 vs. 5 matchup in Boise. Can Ohio State exact revenge for the 27-point beatdown Gonzaga gave them early in the season?
Gonzaga Ohio State
Power Ratings
Strength: #10 Strength: #15
Pomeroy: #8 Pomeroy: #15
Offense: #12 Offense: #27
Defense: #17 Defense: #16
BPI: #9 BPI: #16
LRMC: #5 LRMC: #22
Other Rankings:
Consistency: #270 Consistency: #276
Schedule Strength: #103 Schedule Strength: #39
Tempo (Pomeroy): #125 Tempo: #260
AP Final Poll: #8 AP Final Poll: #17
AP Pre-season: #18 AP Pre-season: #NRSportsRatings Genetic Model:
Model Rank: #11 Model Rank: #24
Though Gonzaga has the edge, it's a pretty close game according to most of the power ratings, as a 4 vs. 5-seed contest should be. The Buckeyes are the equal of the Bulldogs on defense and only slightly behind on offense, well within the range of variance for two fairly inconsistent teams.
- Wins vs. tournament teams (5): (16)Texas Southern+28, =(5)Ohio St.+27, =(10)Texas+OT, (8)Creighton+17, =(13)UNC Greensboro+4
- Losses to tournament teams (3): =(6)Florida-OT, =(1)Villanova-16, @(11)San Diego St.-2
- Other losses (1): Saint Mary's-3
Overview: The Zags didn't come close to going undefeated this year, losing in their 5th game to Florida in double overtime. They also lost to 1-seed Villanova, 11-seed San Diego State, and first-four-out St. Mary's. They were on a health 14-game winning streak to enter the tournament. When they beat Ohio State in game 4, it was probably the best performance of the year, although Ohio State hadn't figured things out yet. Gonzaga has five players that average in double figures, resulting in an offense that's hard to know how to guard. Greensboro did a good job, though, but Jonathan Williams' 19 led the way for the Bulldogs.
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- Wins vs. tournament teams (6): (16)Radford+10, (16)Texas Southern+18, (3)Michigan+9, (3)Michigan St.+16, @(2)Purdue+1, =(12)South Dakota St.+8
- Losses to tournament teams (5): =(4)Gonzaga-27, =(10)Butler-OT, (5)Clemson-14, =(2)North Carolina-14, @(3)Michigan-12
- Other losses (3): Penn St.-3, @Penn St.-23, =Penn St.-1
Overview: Ohio State hasn't exactly been consistent, as they suffered both early and late-season swoons, including an early, bad loss to Gonzaga. They have five tourney-team wins; two are over 16-seeds, and the other three are Michigan State (twice) and Purdue. Keita Bates-Diop averages 19.4 ppg for the Buckeyes, and his emergence as a star is what made the difference between the Buckeyes going from an unranked team to a 5-seed. Bates-Diop had 24 points against South Dakota State, while Kam Williams and CJ Jackson added 22 and 20.
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Game Analysis: These teams met in the 2nd round in 2012 and Ohio State was the winner. Back then, the Buckeyes were a 2-seed playing the 7-seed Bulldogs, so the result was expected. Gonzaga has fallen in the Round of 32 three times as big favorites—as a 1-seed, a 2-seed, and a 3-seed. On two of those occasions, their loss was presaged by a poor performance in the opening round—much like their tepid win over UNC Greensboro. In this year's meeting at a tournament in Portland, Gonzaga won 86-59, and it was only competitive for the first 15 minutes. That was very early in the season, before Ohio State was even close to reaching its potential, but have the Buckeyes improved enough to compete in a rematch? Boise is another "neutral" court, about as close to Gonzaga's campus as Portland is.
Vegas Line:
Gonzaga by 3
Power rating: spread
Gonzaga by 1.9
Game-comparisons: % Chance to win
Gonzaga: 53.8%
Ohio State: 46.2%
Vegas is probably giving Gonzaga a couple of points for playing closer to home—or for the huge spread in their last encounter—since their line is normally a bit lower than the Strength power rating gives. If we add full home court advantage (which is a bit too much), our line moves up to Gonzaga by 5.2, and the Zags' chance to win jumps to 63%.
Bottom line: Gonzaga didn't have an easy time winning their opener. But neither did Ohio State. Both teams are very good and both are pretty inconsistent, so whoever wins this game it won't really be an upset unless one team blows the other away. Gonzaga's offense and closer-to-home play give them a small advantage, how much I don't know, but I'll trust Vegas here.
Final prediction: Gonzaga 74, Ohio State 71
More previews: click here for the full 2018 NCAA tournament schedule.
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