2013 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (8) Colorado State vs. (9) Missouri

Colorado State Rams
Seed: 8
Record: 25-8
Conference: Mountain West

vs.

Missouri Tigers
Seed: 9
Record: 23-10
Conference: SEC

Date: Thursday, March 21
Time: 9:20 pm Eastern
Region: Midwest
Location: Lexington, KY 

 

 

8 vs 9-seed games are normally tossups, with the 9-seed winning 51.8%. This one should be that close.

     Colorado St.                       Missouri

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:          #21             Strength:          #19
Neutral court:     #22             Neutral court:     #18
Median:            #30             Median:            #18

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(predictor):#37             Sagarin:           #15
Pomeroy:           #24             Pomeroy:           #18
   Offense:  #7                       Offense:  #13
   Defense:  #98                      Defense:  #48
LRMC:              #21             LRMC:              #24

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season:   #22             2nd half/season:   #16
Last 6 games:      #51             Last 6 games:      #8
Injury correction: #22             Injury correction: #15

Tournament Potential

Consistency:       #231            Consistency:       #265
Best Play:         #23             Best Play:         #17
Deep Run Rank:     #26 (of 68)     Deep Run Rank:     #22 (of 68)

Several interesting things to note. In Strength the teams rank very close, but Missouri's median Strength is much better. The split is even wider in Sagarin ranking, while the LRMC is the one power rating to favor the Rams. There's a huge disparity in recent play, however, with the edge to Missouri. Both teams rank in the top 15 in offensive efficiency and much lower on defense.

Season overview: Colorado St. (25-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (4): Montana+7, Nevada Las Vegas+5, Boise St.+20, San Diego St.+6
• Losses to tournament teams (7): @Colorado-9, @San Diego St.-OT, @New Mexico-5, @Nevada Las Vegas-2, New Mexico-9, @Boise St.-13, @Nevada Las Vegas-10 
• Other losses (1): @Illinois Chicago-9

Key Info: The Rams have played some exceptional games, for example destroying Virginia Tech 88-52 and beating Air Force 79-40. But near the end of the year, when they went 4-4, there were duds even when winning. Other than a 22-point win over Wyoming, Colorado State played below par down the stretch.

Center Colton Iverson is the center of attention on Colorado State's top 10 offense, scoring 14.7 points and averaging 9.8 rebounds. Three others score in double figures and Pierce Hornung adds 9.2 rebounds, and the Rams are arguably the best rebounding team in the country.

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Season overview: Missouri (23-10)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): =Virginia Commonwealth+3, =Illinois+9, Bucknell+2, Mississippi+19, Florida+3
• Losses to tournament teams (5): =Louisville-23, @UCLA-OT, @Mississippi-15, @Florida-31, =Mississippi-2 
• Other losses (5): @Louisiana St.-3, @Texas A&M-2, @Arkansas-2, @Kentucky-OT, @Tennessee-2

Key Info: Missouri has also had some great games; they beat Mississippi State 78-36 and topped Arkansas by 30 points. Though they lost two of their last three, they played reasonably well, and for the 2nd half of the season the Tigers were an improved team even as they racked up quite a few losses.

Missouri boasts an amazing six players who average in double digits, led by Laurence Bowers' 14.4. What's more, all six players average over 3 rebounds, too, led by Alex Oriakhi's 8.6.

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Game Analysis:  This matchup features two of the best offenses in the country, and neither team has a defense likely to stop the other team from scoring. There should be a great battle on the boards as both teams are among the best in the nation.

Both teams are the kind that, every so often, plays a great game and looks unbeatable. Those games are pretty rare for either team, however, maybe one out of five times on the court. If it happens for one team and not the other, this could be a blowout in either direction. But most of these "huge wins" for both teams came in blowouts against lesser competition.

Vegas Line:

Missouri by   3

Power rating: spread

Missouri by   1   

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Colorado St.:  47% 
Missouri:      53% 

The odds here seem about right—around a 50/50 game and Missouri a slight favorite. The difference between 1 and 3 points is a random bucket here or there, and it's the same between Missouri or Colorado State winning. Like any 8-9 matchups, no result is really an upset.

Bottom line:  Both teams are fairly unpredictable. Given conflicting numbers, we like to look at recent play, and Missouri outshines Colorado State there. And given two great offenses, we take the better defense.

Final prediction:  Missouri 78, Colorado State 72

More previews: click here for the full 2013 NCAA tournament schedule.