2013 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Mississippi

Wisconsin Badgers
Seed: 5
Record: 23-11
Conference: Big Ten

vs.

Mississippi Rebels
Seed: 12
Record: 26-8
Conference: SEC

Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 12:40 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Kansas City, MO 

 

 

Is Mississippi hot enough to knock off the Badgers?

     Wisconsin                          Mississippi

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:          #11             Strength:          #29
Neutral court:     #10             Neutral court:     #29
Median:            #22             Median:            #35

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(predictor):#8              Sagarin:           #31
Pomeroy:           #9              Pomeroy:           #34
   Offense:  #52                      Offense:  #28
   Defense:  #3                       Defense:  #55
LRMC:              #11             LRMC:              #33

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season:   #8              2nd half/season:   #40
Last 6 games:      #30             Last 6 games:      #24
Injury correction: #11             Injury correction: #28

Tournament Potential

Consistency:       #308            Consistency:       #208
Best Play:         #8              Best Play:         #28
Deep Run Rank:     #10 (of 68)     Deep Run Rank:     #34 (of 68)

Wisconsin is among the very best defensive teams in the country, and also among the most inconsistent, leaving them vulnerable to upset. Their median game rating is considerably lower than their mean average rating, and over the last 6 games they are even worse. Of course, a small sample means less when the samples are known to be erratic.

Season overview: Wisconsin (23-11)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (9): California+25, Illinois+23, @Indiana+5, Minnesota+1, @Illinois+6, Michigan+OT, Ohio St.+22, =Michigan+9, =Indiana+12 
• Losses to tournament teams (8): @Florida-18, =Creighton-10, @Marquette-10, Michigan St.-2, @Ohio St.-9, @Minnesota-OT, @Michigan St.-15, =Ohio St.-7 
• Other losses (3): Virginia-6, @Iowa-4, Purdue-13

Key Info: Before tempo-free ratings became widely available, basketball commentators always praised Wisconsin's defense while lamenting that they couldn't play offense; after all, why else were their games so low scoring, if not due to great defense and terrible offense? We know now that Wisconsin's low-scoring games are due to pace, not necessarily great defense and poor offense. But this year's Badger team actually does happen to play great defense.

Their offense isn't nearly as good but it's far from bad. Ben Brust, Jared Berggren, and Ryan Evans all average in double figures. They only total 32.5 ppg between the three, but considering Wisconsin's tempo that's not bad. The Badgers rebound well, too, and their defense makes it difficult on opponents' shooters.

Wisconsin's season was very up and down, as they lost by double digits to Florida, Creighton, and Marquette, but did well in the Big Ten, beating 1-seed Indiana twice and 2-seed Ohio State by 22. They still hit rough patches here and there, only to recover with even better performances. Which Wisconsin will we see in the tournament?

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Season overview: Mississippi (26-8)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (3): Missouri+15, =Missouri+2, =Florida+3 
• Losses to tournament teams (3): @Middle Tennessee-3, @Florida-14, @Missouri-19 
• Other losses (5): =Indiana St.-OT, Kentucky-13, @Texas A&M-2, @South Carolina-1, @Mississippi St.-6

Key Info: When Mississippi started the season 17-2, who would have though that they would need to win the SEC tournament to edge their way into the NCAA tournament? And after they went 2-5 during a terrible stretch in February, who would have thought they could regroup and win the tourney? This begs the question: what the hell happened? After a 21-point loss to Missouri and losses to woeful South Carolina and Mississippi State, the same Rebel team won five straight at the end including a 66-63 defeat of 3-seed Florida.

It wasn't a personnel issue. Scoring leader Marshall Henderson (20.1 ppg) was there all along, as was Murphy Holloway (14.6, 9.6 rebounds) and Reginald Buckner (9.5, 7.4). For whatever reason, Ole Miss just played bad for a while; then they played well when it really counted.

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Game Analysis:  Wisconsin is good enough to beat anyone and inconsistent enough to get beat by a lot of teams. The problem with their low tempo style is that there aren't enough possessions to build an insurmountable lead. And with their offense less efficient this year, they aren't as good at coming back from deficits.

Ole Miss is also a conundrum. They were looking like the classic "collapse" team, much like Tennessee in 2000, where losses mount and a team loses control of their season. But they recovered and got their best win of the season in the last game of the season.

The matchup of Wisconsin's offense to Ole Miss' defense is very even; on the other side of the court, the Rebel offense will have its work cut out for it. But depending on how Wisconsin is playing, and whether Mississippi's momentum carries forward, anything can happen.

Vegas Line:

Wisconsin by   6

Power rating: spread

Wisconsin by   4.5   

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Wisconsin:     61% 
Mississippi:   39% 

All things considered, the Badgers are a very sensible pick: Wisconsin plays well more often than they play poorly, especially come NCAA tournament time. And Mississippi's recent resurgence can't be counted on as any kind of a "trend." So the reasonable thing to do is take the Badgers.

Bottom line:  Everything has to work out right for Ole Miss to win, but we're in an upset-pickin' mood at this very moment, so Ole Miss it is.

Final prediction:  Mississippi 63, Wisconsin 58

More previews: click here for the full 2013 NCAA tournament schedule.