2013 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (4) Kansas State vs. (13) La Salle

Kansas State Wildcats
Seed: 4
Record: 27-7
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

La Salle Explorers
Seed: 13
Record: 22-9
Conference: Atlantic 10

Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 3:10 pm Eastern
Region: West
Location: Kansas City, MO 

 

 

La Salle carries their 1-game NCAA tournament winning streak what is officially "round 2"

     Kansas St.                         La Salle

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:          #27             Strength:          #54
Neutral court:     #31             Neutral court:     #54
Median:            #45             Median:            #64

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(predictor):#26             Sagarin:           #57
Pomeroy:           #30             Pomeroy:           #51
   Offense:  #21                      Offense:  #32
   Defense:  #64                      Defense:  #88
LRMC:              #29             LRMC:              #62

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season:   #24             2nd half/season:   #45
Last 6 games:      #29             Last 6 games:      #56
Injury correction: #29             Injury correction: #47

Tournament Potential

Consistency:       #161            Consistency:       #210
Best Play:         #30             Best Play:         #56
Deep Run Rank:     #29 (of 68)     Deep Run Rank:     #50 (of 68)

As you'd expect for a 4 vs. 13, the 4-seed has better numbers across the board. Both teams have a discrepancy between median and mean averages. Both play a lot better offense than defense.

Season overview: Kansas St. (27-7)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (6): Florida+6, Oklahoma St.+6, Oklahoma+9, @Oklahoma+2, Iowa St.+9, =Oklahoma St.+11 
• Losses to tournament teams (7): =Michigan-14, @Gonzaga-16, Kansas-4, @Iowa St.-6, @Kansas-21, @Oklahoma St.-6, =Kansas-16 
• Other losses (0): none 

Key Info: Kansas State is an increasingly rare type of team: one that has no losses to teams that didn't make the tournament. The only other teams to meet that criteria are 1-seeds Indiana, Louisville, and Gonzaga, and 2-seed Ohio State (4-seed Syracuse and 3-seed Michigan State both lost to UConn, who would have made the tournament). That puts Kansas State in pretty good company. Add in a win over 3-seed Florida and the Wildcats look pretty impressive.

They didn't do well against Michigan and Gonzaga, and given three tries against nemesis Kansas the closest they got was 59-55 at home. But they can also boast that they have only 3 losses to teams that didn't get a 1-seed. The Wildcats have just two players in double figures—guards Rodney McGruder at 15.7 and Angel Rodriguez at 11.7—but they play a slow tempo so scoring is muted. Five players shoot the three regularly and all are above 33.3%.

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Season overview: La Salle (22-9)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (5): Villanova+OT, Iona+14, Butler+1, @Virginia Commonwealth+8, =Boise St.+9
  
• Losses to tournament teams (5): @Bucknell-8, @Miami FL-17, @Temple-8, @St. Louis-24, =Butler-11 
• Other losses (4): Central Connecticut-7, @Charlotte-9, @Xavier-7, Massachusetts-1

Key Info: La Salle's strong offense is led by Ramon Galloway at 17.0 ppg, one of four Explorers in double figures; Tyreek Duren adds 15.0.

La Salle plays in the Atlantic 10, and though that conference has 5 NCAA tournament teams it also has 8 teams that didn't make the NCAA or NIT, and 8 of La Salle's 11 conference wins came from that pool. Their non-conference schedule was reasonably tough, with games against Villanova and Miami.

The team's last two games before the NCAA tournament were subpar, as two of the conference's top teams—St. Louis and Butler—beat the Explorers by double digits. But they rebounded in a big way against Boise State, as Tyrone Garland led with 22 points.

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Game Analysis:  Four teams have been "play-in" game winners, not counting 16-seeds. One of them was BYU, who entered as a 14-seed and lost to a 3-seed, which is hardly fair. That leaves three viable examples: Clemson, South Florida, and VCU. Clemson lost in the round of 64; South Florida upset a 5-seed and lost in the next round. VCU went all the way to the Final Four. Not much of a sample to go on, but so far the results suggest that a play-in game is a very good "warm-up" for the tournament.

That's the chance we give La Salle. If they win, it will be further evidence that the play-in game is good for the winner. Kansas State is a similar team, a smallish, guard-dominated squad that shoots the three well and plays offense better than defense. They're better across the board, and should win this game. So it might mean something if La Salle wins: you don't want to be the team facing the play-in winner. We'll know in a few years if that's really true or not, but this will be a good piece of evidence.

Vegas Line:

no line yet

Power rating: spread

Kansas St. by  7.0   

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas St.:   67% 
La Salle:     33% 

The line isn't set yet, but it will undoubtedly be smaller than the 7 points we show above, as we're giving Kansas State full home court advantage. Without it, the spread is about 3 1/2, which is probably what Vegas will show. The win% drops to 59% without home court. We think the distance from home is so much greater for La Salle, and add to that the fact that they have to travel for the 2nd time in just a few days. If there were any doubt we were picking Kansas State, the venue in Kansas City would seal it.

Bottom line:  Kansas State and La Salle are fairly similar teams except Kansas State is better. La Salle's opening-round win could give it a significant boost, but that's probably at least offset by K-State playing close to home.

Final prediction:  Kansas State 70, La Salle 63

More previews: click here for the full 2013 NCAA tournament schedule.