2013 NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Preview, Odds, & Prediction: (1) Kansas vs. (16) Western Kentucky

Kansas Jayhawks
Seed: 1
Record: 29-5
Conference: Big Twelve

vs.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Seed: 16
Record: 20-15
Conference: Sun Belt

Date: Friday, March 22
Time: 9:50 pm Eastern
Region: South
Location: Kansas City, MO 

 

 

When you finish 20-15, you get to play Kansas in Kansas City. That's the rules.

     Kansas                             W. Kentucky

SportsRatings Power Ratings

Strength:          #7              Strength:          #175
Neutral court:     #12             Neutral court:     #176
Median:            #6              Median:            #156

Other Power Ratings

Sagarin(predictor):#4              Sagarin:           #183
Pomeroy:           #8              Pomeroy:           #183
   Offense:  #25                      Offense:  #177
   Defense:  #5                       Defense:  #182
LRMC:              #5              LRMC:              #168

Partial Season Refactorings

2nd half/season:   #12             2nd half/season:   #184
Last 6 games:      #4              Last 6 games:      #152
Injury correction: #8              Injury correction: #151

Tournament Potential

Consistency:       #334            Consistency:       #34
Best Play:         #5              Best Play:         #202
Deep Run Rank:     #11 (of 68)     Deep Run Rank:     #62 (of 68)

Kansas almost ranks like a 1-seed, but only really hits the top four in a few measures. Sagarin has them #4, and they are #4 in very recent play quality. But are they the team to pick for the long run? Consistency, or rather, inconsistency says no. Even if they play their best—a full standard deviation above normal—there are still four teams who, at their best, beat the Jayhawks. And they rank only 11th in terms of reliability for a deep tournament run. Western Kentucky is only about average for a division I team. But at least they're consistent.

Season overview: Kansas (29-5)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (13): St. Louis+14, Colorado+36, Belmont+29, @Ohio St.+8, Temple+7, Iowa St.+OT, @Kansas St.+4, Oklahoma+13, Kansas St.+21, @Oklahoma St.+OT, @Iowa St.+OT, Iowa St.+15, =Kansas St.+16
• Losses to tournament teams (3): =Michigan St.-3, Oklahoma St.-5, @Oklahoma-6 
• Other losses (2): @Texas Christian-7, @Baylor-23

Key Info: KU blasted out of the gate 19-1; they lost to Michigan State but beat a number of tournament teams by big margins, including Colorado and Belmont by a combined 65 points. They beat 4-seed St. Louis and 2-seed Ohio State, and started off 7-0 in the Big Twelve. Then they hit the skids on a three-game losing streak, including a 62-55 loss to 11-21 TCU. A 7-game winning streak appeared to right the ship but the Jayhawks lost 81-58 to Baylor in March. A strong 3-game run to win the Big Twelve title and earn a 1-seed followed, but is another disaster game looming?

Kansas' defense is more vaunted than its offense, but they're inside the top 25 in both. Ben McLemore is the team's leading scorer with 16.4 ppg, while center Jeff Withey adds 13.6 and 8.4 rebounds. Travis Releford and Elijah Johnson are also in double figures, and along with Withey return from last year's runner-up team.

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Season overview: W. Kentucky (20-15)

• Wins vs. tournament teams (0): none
  
• Losses to tournament teams (4): @Virginia Commonwealth-32, =Louisville-23, @Middle Tennessee-19, Middle Tennessee-8 
• Other losses (11): @Southern Mississippi-OT, =Iowa-8, @Murray St.-5, @Arkansas Little Rock-8, @Arkansas St.-14, Florida Atlantic-3, Arkansas Little Rock-5, @South Alabama-8, Arkansas St.-18, @Florida Atlantic-6, @Florida International-5

Key Info: The Hilltoppers didn't beat a tournament team this year, and they had four shots, losing to VCU and Louisville badly and falling to MTSU twice. They also lost to a whole lot of other teams this year, but even with 15 losses they managed to win 6 in a row early on and six out of their last seven at the end.

Sophomore guard T.J. Price leads the team with 15.3 points per game; George Fant and Jamal Crook follow with 12.9 and 12.0. Crook missed 10 games this year and Western Kentucky's rating improves quite a bit if those games are excluded, but not enough to make a difference in the prediction for this game.

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Game Analysis:  Western Kentucky is a better team than Texas Christian. That's all the evidence you need to show that it's possible for the 16-seed to beat the 1-seed. That game will give Western Kentucky hope, and serve as a reminder to the Jayhawks that they are never safe.

But realistically it's a matter of how close can WKU keep it, given the disparity in talent. The Hilltoppers shoot quite a few three-pointers, but they're not particularly great at making them. If that changes, the game could at least be interesting.

Vegas Line:

Kansas by   20

Power rating: spread

Kansas by   22.3   

Game-comparisons: % Chance to win

Kansas:       93% 
W. Kentucky:   7% 

We give Kansas home court advantage for playing about 1/2 hour from home. Still, the Jayhawks' two terrible games (TCU, and the later loss to Baylor) gives WKU a glimmer of hope. But this game will probably more closely resemble the rematch of KU and TCU, played in Lawrence. The Jayhawks won that game 74-48.

Bottom line:  Kansas advances, but looks like the most vulnerable 1-seed in subsequent rounds.

Final prediction:  Kansas 76, Western Kentucky 52

More previews: click here for the full 2013 NCAA tournament schedule.