Dance Chance update: One day left, Kansas holds final #1 seed

Top to bottom, here is our penultimate Dance Chance update:

The one and two seeds: Kentucky will remain our overall #1 seed, win or lose against Vanderbilt. Syracuse is right behind them. North Carolina ranks a solid #3, and should hold their #1 seed even if they lose to Florida State today. They won't drop below Duke.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
1	Kentucky	SEC	32-1	16-0	1	1	9	31	100%	1
2	Syracuse	Big East	31-2	17-1	2	2	11	22	100%	1
3	North Carolina	ACC	29-4	14-2	3	4	8	4	100%	1
4	Kansas	Big 12	27-6	16-2	6	9	11	9	100%	1	+1
5	Duke	ACC	27-6	13-3	5	3	7	2	100%	2	-1
6	Missouri	Big 12	30-4	14-4	10	7	11	69	100%	2
7	Ohio St.	Big Ten	27-6	13-5	7	5	9	11	100%	2
8	Michigan St.	Big Ten	25-7	13-5	4	6	10	1	100%	2

Kansas moves back into the 4th 1-seed as Duke falls to FSU. Missouri won the Big 12 tournament but in our method didn't even get past Duke, let alone Kansas, so they will remain a 2-seed.

That leaves Ohio State and Michigan State, who play for the Big Ten title. The winner has a very slim chance of jumping all the way above Kansas—or North Carolina, if the Tar Heels fail—and it seems that our prediction, at least, is going to be for two #2 seeds for the Big Ten.

Threes and fours:

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
9	Marquette	Big East	25-7	14-4	9	11	5	17	100%	3
10	Baylor	Big 12	26-7	12-6	8	14	9	10	100%	3
11	Michigan	Big Ten	23-9	13-5	11	15	7	12	100%	3
12	Florida St.	ACC	23-9	12-4	17	12	4	6	100%	3	+2
13	Louisville	Big East	26-9	10-8	13	8	8	5	100%	4
14	Indiana	Big Ten	25-8	11-7	16	10	8	27	100%	4	-1
15	Georgetown	Big East	22-8	12-6	14	22	7	14	100%	4
16	Wichita St.	MVC	26-5	16-2	12	19	2	56	100%	4

Marquette remains a strong 3-seed with us, as does Baylor. Michigan is a bit weaker, in a dead heat with Florida State and Louisville. FSU probably remains a 3-seed if they win and falls to a 4-seed if they lose, but there's a slim chance they replace the Big Ten title game loser as a 2-seed if they beat UNC. Louisville gets a 3-seed if FSU loses.

Indiana and Georgetown will be our 4-seed picks, and Wichita State, too, as long as Vanderbilt doesn't beat Kentucky.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
17	Memphis	C-USA	26-8	13-3	15	13	5	20	100%	5
18	Wisconsin	Big Ten	24-9	12-6	22	21	6	16	100%	5	-1
19	Vanderbilt	SEC	23-10	10-6	25	16	4	8	100%	5	+1
20	Temple	Atlantic 10	24-7	13-3	19	17	4	54	100%	5
21	Creighton	MVC	28-5	14-4	23	18	3	102	100%	6	-1
22	Murray St.	Ohio Valley	27-1	15-1	21	33	3	158	100%	6
23	Florida	SEC	23-10	10-6	28	25	4	23	100%	6
24	Cincinnati	Big East	24-10	12-6	42	20	7	65	99.9	6

5s and 6s: The Commodores would jump to a solid 5-seed if they manage to beat the Wildcats. Other than that, our picks will remain the same. Memphis is the top 5 seed right now, probably higher than anyone else has them. The committee might not be so kind to the C-USA, so this is one team we think might end up with a different result than we've pegged for them. If major conference favoritism is higher this year, Wisconsin could get a 4-seed ahead of Wichita State. Temple, Creighton, Murray State, and Florida all have our 100% designation now, with Big East title game loser Cincinnati just a hair below it.

7s and 8s: Notre Dame and Gonzaga have secure at-large bids, while New Mexico won the Mountain West. Southern Miss ranks on the high side with us at the low 7-seed. Unlike the C-USA, we have the MWC teams a bit lower than most people do. After the Lobos at a 7-seed, we see UNLV and San Diego State as 8-seeds, at 99% and 97% odds for selection. Essentially this means we assume they're in, but given the MWC's history of being screwed by the committee it's not hard to see why they shouldn't be at 100%.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
25	Notre Dame	Big East	22-11	13-5	40	23	4	39	99.9	7
26	Gonzaga	West Coast	25-6	13-3	24	36	5	78	99.9	7
27	New Mexico	Mtn West	26-6	10-4	27	24	6	82	99.9	7	+1
28	Southern Miss	C-USA	23-8	11-5	20	27	3	48	99.9	7
29	Iowa St.	Big 12	22-10	12-6	33	40	5	40	99.9	8
30	Alabama	SEC	21-11	9-7	36	28	3	29	99.9	8	-1
31	Nevada Las Vegas	Mtn West	24-8	9-5	18	30	5	41	99.0	8
32	San Diego St.	Mtn West	24-7	10-4	26	35	6	58	96.7	8

Iowa State and Alabama are two other teams as close to locks for at-large bids as you can get.

9s and 10s: Connecticut is in solid shape for an at-large bid after they recovered from their mid-to-late season swoon. St. Mary's ranks a bit lower here than elsewhere; it will be interesting to see where the committee puts them compared to Gonzaga. Since we don't do team-to-team comparisons, the fact that the Gaels won the regular season WCC and the tournament isn't considered, but that will probably mean they are seeded at least equally with the Bulldogs.

St. Louis survives their loss to Xavier, who moves into a 10-seed spot from being right on the bubble (and outside the seedings two days ago). The Musketeers will probably be a 9-seed if they win the Atlantic 10 today, perhaps an 11-seed if not, but either way they're fairly safe. That's bad news for the bubble teams if they lose. The Billikens are pretty secure, too, giving the Atlantic 10 either three or four teams in the Big Dance.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
33	Connecticut	Big East	20-13	8-10	32	31	3	3	93.5	9
34	St. Mary's	West Coast	25-5	14-2	29	59	4	103	93.2	9
35	St. Louis	Atlantic 10	24-7	12-4	31	29	2	87	91.5	9
36	Purdue	Big Ten	21-12	10-8	45	34	3	26	88.9	9
37	Kansas St.	Big 12	21-10	10-8	49	44	6	55	80.9	10
38	California	Pac-12	24-9	13-5	38	41	0	86	74.3	10
39	Xavier	Atlantic 10	21-11	10-6	37	32	4	37	74.1	10	+2
40	West Virginia	Big East	19-13	9-9	56	37	4	19	73.1	10

California remains a solid at-large from the Pac-12, despite having zero top 50 RPI wins. Their RPI and RealWins scores demonstrate enough solid victories to give the Pac-12 two teams in a very, very down year. Purdue, Kansas State, and West Virginia should grab some lower bids for their conferences.

Upper bubble teams: These teams are probably in...but it's not ironclad. South Florida's Big East record should help them get a bid. Their RPI and RealWins are right on the line. Their #28 SOS helps offset their 19-13 record. Virginia and North Carolina State both remain above the play-in line, with fairly evenly matched résumés. They would only be ACC teams #4 and #5, so having them both in would not be excessive.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
41	South Florida	Big East	19-13	12-6	53	50	2	28	71.2	11	-1
42	Virginia	ACC	22-9	9-7	52	49	2	85	68.6	11
43	North Carolina State	ACC	22-12	9-7	48	47	1	25	65.4	11
44	Virginia Commonwealth	Colonial Ath	28-6	15-3	39	26	0	154	59.8	11
45	Colorado St.	Mtn West	19-11	8-6	30	52	3	7	59.3	12	-1

VCU is safe, of course, and gets our last 11-seed, while Colorado State should be in to give the Mountain West four teams. The conference is very strong this year so the days of the committee making it a 1-bid league are over. The Rams #7 SOS is their biggest selling point.

The heart of the bubble: Seton Hall is currently a play-in team with Oral Roberts for a 12-seed, while Miami and Texas vie for a 13-seed. Mixed between the two are new auto-bid Colorado and Harvard both at a 12. It wouldn't be shocking if the committee put Colorado State, or one (or both) of the ACC teams on the play-in line. Miami would be ACC team #6, so if there's any "counting" of conference teams going on in the back of the committee's minds, they might not get the benefit of the doubt.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
46	Seton Hall	Big East	20-12	8-10	68	46	3	49	56.5	12
47	Colorado	Pac-12	21-11	11-7	62	58	2	73	54.9	12	+
48	Oral Roberts	Summit	27-6	17-1	51	56	2	190	52.6	12
49	Miami FL	ACC	19-12	9-7	60	61	2	43	52.2	13	+
50	Harvard	Ivy League	25-4	12-2	35	57	1	185	52.0	12
51	Texas	Big 12	20-13	9-9	50	74	4	18	50.5	13	-1
52	Mississippi St.	SEC	21-11	8-8	74	45	2	76	49.8
53	Marshall	C-USA	20-13	9-7	44	48	4	24	47.5		x
54	Iona	Metro Atl	25-7	15-3	41	38	0	144	46.5
55	Mississippi	SEC	20-13	8-8	61	54	1	45	42.8
56	Arizona	Pac-12	23-11	12-6	75	55	1	112	37.5		x

Today's action, remember, could include a bid-stealing win by St. Bonaventure, so Texas (and all the other play-in teams) better root for Xavier. Mississippi State is our first team out, followed by Marshall who held up pretty well despite losing to Memphis. Iona, who was in our seeding for quite a while after their Metro Atlantic loss, has steadily declined since then (though we're starting to see the Gaels show up more in other people's brackets, interestingly). And Mississippi probably has as good of a chance as Mississippi State to sneak in. That would make for an interesting play-in matchup, right?

Arizona, of course, made a good run of it but probably is out of luck. What the committee does about the Pac-12 is one of the more interesting aspects of Selection Sunday. They might surprise and take 3-4 teams from the conference, and if so, the Wildcats could still be in.

Below the bubble: These teams have, in our estimation, very little chance of getting a bid, though it's not out of the question. Mainly there are too many teams ahead of them.

Ohio grabs a bid with their MAC championship win over Akron, but the rest of these teams need to be the beneficiary of some very good luck. Central Florida's résumé isn't bad at all, but the C-USA probably won't get a third team. Oregon has the same woes as every Pac-12 member. Dayton and St. Joseph's have no real chance given that the Atlantic 10 already has three teams in and maybe a fourth.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
57	Ohio	MAC	26-7	11-5	47	42	1	165	36.4	13	+
58	Central Florida	C-USA	20-10	10-6	54	72	3	79	33.0
59	Oregon	Pac-12	22-9	13-5	64	68	0	94	32.5
60	Akron	MAC	21-11	13-3	55	64	2	81	29.6		x
61	Dayton	Atlantic 10	20-12	9-7	80	39	4	68	29.4
62	New Mexico St.	WAC	24-9	10-4	59	60	1	114	27.7	13	+1
63	Saint Joseph's	Atlantic 10	20-13	9-7	69	43	2	52	27.3
64	Drexel	Colonial Ath	27-6	16-2	66	53	1	213	27.1
65	Northwestern	Big Ten	18-13	8-10	63	71	1	21	26.9
66	Tennessee	SEC	17-14	10-6	85	75	4	34	26.6
67	Nevada	WAC	24-6	13-1	66	67	0	163	24.6
68	Massachusetts	Atlantic 10	22-11	9-7	76	51	3	119	24.6

Drexel is a team many have in their brackets, but the Dragons have been below the waterline on our board consistently. Their RPI, weighed down by a #213 SOS, just doesn't make it, particularly without a good collection of top 50 wins. Northwestern, Tennessee, Nevada, and UMass are all fairly long shots.

Far below the bubble: This area actually includes some teams that are on most bracketologists lists. There will likely be some teams below our waterline that make it, which is why we include our percentages.

Long Beach State has a great RPI and great conference record, leading many to seed them higher, often in a place that would imply an at-large bid if they had lost in the Big West tournament. We look at their overall record—and #121 SOS—and conclude they wouldn't make it. Their #34 RPI comes from the fact that they played a lot of great teams in their non-conference slate. Sure they played San Diego State, Louisville, Kansas, North Carolina, Kansas State, and Creighton, but they didn't beat any of them. Xavier is their lone top 50 RPI win. Their #102 RealWins ranking weighs them down with us, and we'll watch what the committee does with interest.

#	Team	Conference	Div I record	Conf record	RPI rank	RealWins rank	T50 wins	SOS	Dance Chance	Proj Seed	Chg
69	Long Beach St.	Big West	23-8	15-1	34	102	1	121	20.5	13	+1
70	Brigham Young	West Coast	23-8	12-4	46	90	1	101	20.5
71	South Dakota St.	Summit	25-7	15-3	43	66	0	180	20.4	14	-1
72	Davidson	Southern	24-7	16-2	65	65	1	173	19.1	14	-1
73	Louisiana St.	SEC	18-14	7-9	83	69	2	50	18.9
74	Middle Tennessee	Sun Belt	24-6	14-2	57	63	0	184	17.0
75	Washington	Pac-12	21-10	14-4	71	85	0	92	15.6
76	Belmont	Atlantic Sun	26-7	16-2	58	78	1	191	13.7	14
77	Stanford	Pac-12	21-11	10-8	97	82	3	134	11.8
78	Minnesota	Big Ten	19-14	6-12	89	76	2	44	5.1
79	Illinois	Big Ten	17-15	6-12	93	77	3	32	3.3
80	Northern Iowa	MVC	18-13	9-9	72	79	3	53	0.1

BYU is the other interesting case. Most brackets have the Cougars in as part of a trio of West Coast Conference teams, but they've been sinking in our Dance Chance. The same reasoning applies to BYU as Long Beach: lack of solid wins. The WCC has a good reputation now, and BYU made a lot of waves last year and is a prominent program, so we wouldn't be too surprised if we're wrong here.

Washington is another sinking team, down to a dismal 15.6% chance. In this case, we're seeing other brackets start to align with our opinion about the Huskies, and most have them either in the Last Four In or First Four Out by now. Still, they're a special case—a regular season winner of a major conference—and can't be counted out.

LSU and Middle Tennessee State would be surprise picks, for sure, though not as shocking as Stanford, Minnesota or Illinois. Northern Iowa is the first team we essentially give no chance, and below that things just get less likely.