The Kansas State Wildcats pulled off another big upset, beating Missouri in Columbia 78-68, just days after beating Baylor in Waco. The win bumps K-State up three full seeds to a #8 in our latest Dance Chance projections, and topples Missouri from their perch as a #1 seed.
The Tigers fall all the way to the last 2-seed slot, while North Carolina, who beat North Carolina State last night 86-74, slides up into the last #1 seed, joining ACC member Duke.
Dance Chance projections for games through February 21, 2012:
| # | Team | Conference | Record vs. Div I |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
RealWins rank |
T50 wins |
Dance Chance |
Proj Seed |
Chg |
| 1 | Kentucky | SEC | 27-1 | 13-0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 100.0 | 1 | |
| 2 | Syracuse | Big East | 27-1 | 14-1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 100.0 | 1 | |
| 3 | Duke | ACC | 23-4 | 10-2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 100.0 | 1 | |
| 4 | North Carolina | ACC | 24-4 | 11-2 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 100.0 | 1 | +1 |
| 5 | Michigan St. | Big Ten | 21-5 | 11-3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 100.0 | 2 | |
| 6 | Kansas | Big 12 | 22-5 | 12-2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 100.0 | 2 | |
| 7 | Ohio St. | Big Ten | 23-5 | 11-4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 100.0 | 2 | |
| 8 | Missouri | Big 12 | 25-3 | 12-3 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 100.0 | 2 | -1 |
It's very doubtful that the ACC will get two #1 seeds, and by Selection Sunday this shouldn't be the case. What it does show is that both teams are strong candidates for the spot, and one of them is very likely to get it. The other position probably goes to Michigan State or Kansas, though Ohio State and Missouri are in the mix, too. In other words, the top seeds will likely be Kentucky, Syracuse, a team from the ACC, and the last slot goes to either the Big Ten or Big Twelve winner, with the Big Ten having the edge.
The battle for the overall #1 seed is tight between Syracuse and Kentucky. The Wildcats' undefeated conference record gives them the edge right now, but the Orange have the edge in RPI and RealWins, and if both win out and win their tournaments Syracuse probable comes out on top. Though the difference is much closer than in recent years, the Big East is still tougher than the SEC.
Bubble report: Colorado State makes move after New Mexico upset
Colorado State knocked off New Mexico 71-63 last night, giving the Rams' NCAA hopes a big boost. At 16-9 and 6-5 in a mid-major they may need to do more work, but the Mountain West is strong this year which helps. Their RPI is #25, which is almost at lock level, but their RealWins profile ranks #60, suggesting that other than their 2 top 50 RPI wins they are somewhat shy of what the committee wants to see. But for now they are firmly above water as an 11-seed, and remarkably they move ahead of San Diego State (18-6) who has a better overall record but a lower RPI and RealWins ranking. The Aztecs host the Rams on Saturday in what should settle the 3rd place battle in the Mountain West and could put one of these teams in, and take one out.
Northwestern also manages to stay above the waterline despite their overtime loss to Michigan last night. The Wildcats were right on the bubble before beating Minnesota (which sent the Gophers tumbling off the bubble), and a win over Michigan might have nearly clinched their first NCAA appearance. Instead they're still vulnerable, with a poor 16-11 overall, a losing conference record at 6-9, and bubble-level RPI and RealWins. What keeps them afloat is their two top 50 RPI wins and #6 schedule strength.
| # | Team | Conference | Record vs. Div I |
Conf record |
RPI rank |
RealWins rank |
T50 wins |
Dance Chance |
Proj Seed |
Chg |
| 42 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 16-11 | 6-9 | 48 | 54 | 2 | 67.0 | 11 | |
| 43 | Iona | Metro Atl | 22-6 | 13-3 | 44 | 29 | 1 | 66.2 | 11 | |
| 44 | Colorado St. | Mtn West | 16-9 | 6-5 | 25 | 60 | 2 | 65.0 | 11 | + |
| 45 | Middle Tennessee | Sun Belt | 23-4 | 13-1 | 38 | 40 | 0 | 64.4 | 12 | |
| 46 | Cincinnati | Big East | 19-8 | 9-5 | 81 | 44 | 4 | 63.5 | 12 | |
| 47 | San Diego St. | Mtn West | 18-6 | 6-4 | 35 | 70 | 4 | 62.7 | 12 | -1 |
| 48 | Oral Roberts | Summit | 25-5 | 16-1 | 45 | 33 | 0 | 61.8 | 12 | |
| 49 | South Florida | Big East | 16-10 | 10-4 | 50 | 63 | 1 | 58.6 | 13 | + |
| 50 | Miami FL | ACC | 16-10 | 7-6 | 49 | 59 | 1 | 57.0 | 13 | -1 |
| 51 | Saint Joseph's | Atlantic 10 | 18-10 | 8-5 | 47 | 38 | 1 | 53.2 | 13 | |
| 52 | Brigham Young | West Coast | 21-6 | 11-3 | 46 | 62 | 1 | 51.1 | 13 | + |
| 53 | Illinois | Big Ten | 16-12 | 5-10 | 69 | 50 | 4 | 50.9 | 13 | |
| 54 | Washington | Pac-12 | 19-8 | 12-3 | 51 | 69 | 0 | 49.5 | ||
| 55 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 19-9 | 10-5 | 68 | 57 | 1 | 47.1 | ||
| 56 | Texas | Big 12 | 17-11 | 7-8 | 58 | 76 | 3 | 47.0 | x | |
| 57 | Xavier | Atlantic 10 | 17-10 | 8-5 | 56 | 52 | 2 | 46.0 | x | |
| 58 | North Carolina State | ACC | 18-10 | 7-6 | 64 | 61 | 1 | 45.4 | x | |
| 59 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 17-10 | 5-9 | 76 | 53 | 2 | 41.8 |
Three minor conference leaders hold on to their at-large berth possibilities: Iona (Metro Atlantic), Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt), and Oral Roberts (Summit) all have good enough résumés at the moment to have a solid chance of getting a bid even if they don't win their conference. Of course, depending on when those losses happen in the conference tournament could change that; all three are just above the play-in line so nothing is guaranteed.
South Florida has won four Big East games in a row (including home and away wins over Pittsburgh) and join the hunt for an at-large bid. Their overall record of 16-10 is not impressive, but their 10-4 Big East record is; they are currently in 4th place, ahead of Georgetown and Louisville. Their RPI is borderline, their RealWins score needs work, and they need a few more big wins, but they're in the mix now.
Meanwhile USF's in-state rival Miami dips into the play-in territory after losing to Maryland last night, 75-70. Joining them in the Last Four is BYU (21-6), who at 11-3 is now tied for 2nd place in the West Coast Conference with Gonzaga, though both the 'Zags (6-seed) and St. Mary's (9) are well above the Cougars in our projections. Comparing the three, the teams all have nearly similar overall and conference records, but BYU's RPI (46) is much lower as is their RealWins rank of #62, and the Cougars have just 1 big win to 3 for both of the other teams.
Texas, Xavier, and North Carolina State all drop off the ledger this time around. The Longhorns were a play-in team a few days ago and nearly beat Baylor which would have lifted them above the bubble, but the 77-72 home loss dumped them below it instead. The Musketeers were upset by Massachusetts 80-73 last night, while the Tar Heels dropped their third game in a row to a conference co-leader last night, falling to North Carolina 86-74. None of the three teams is out of it; we still show each of them above a 45% chance, so it wouldn't be a shock to see any of them make it back into the listing, or even get a surprise bid if they don't improve their fortunes that much.
Speaking of teams that are oh-so-close to being above-water, the Pac-12 has two such teams: Washington and Arizona. Both have decent overall records and stellar conference records, but are weighed down by poor and/or dismal RPI and RealWins rankings. Contrast this with Illinois, who is listed as our last team in: the Illini are just 16-12, and an awful 5-10 in the Big Ten, with a #69 RPI and borderline #50 RealWins. How on earth do they get the last bid? The answer is, they probably don't. Washington at 12-3 in the Pac-12 would get the bid, and Arizona is also probably ahead of the Illini in reality. But a spot here and there in an algorithmic system will always have flukes.
What keeps Illinois ahead of the Pac-12 teams in the Dance Chance is their 4 top 50 RPI wins, contrasting with Washington and Arizona's 1 win combined. I think that their chances here are overstated, but it does show that even after losing 6 in a row and 9 of their last 10, they still have a chance to make the tournament if they finish strong. Having wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, and Gonzaga on your résumé will do that.
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