Game Time: Friday, March 20, 2:55 pm EDT in Dayton, OH (East Regional)
Team: Pittsburgh Panthers
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Seed: 1
Record: 28-4
Conference: Big East
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Success: #2 (2)
Combined: #2 (2)
Tempo-Free Ratings
Strength: #2 (2)Offense: #2 (2)
Defense: #22(26)
Power Rating Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #6 (6)Injury correction: #3 (3)
Neutral court rating: #4 (4)
- Wins vs. tournament teams(10): @Connecticut+8, Connecticut+10, Syracuse+18, @Florida State+8, @West Virginia+12, West Virginia+11, Marquette+15, Siena+13, Akron+19, Robert Morris+20
- Losses to tournament teams(3): @Louisville-6, @Villanova-10, =West Virginia-14
- Other losses(0): @Providence-12
Key Info: Pittsburgh's signature wins, of course, were the two wins over top seed UConn, at home and on the road, though they dropped a game also to another top seed, Louisville. Their recent losses were more disconcerting, making some wonder if the team will be "up" for a first round game against a 16 seed.
***********************************************************************************Team: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
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Seed: 16
Record: 23-10
Conference: Atlantic Sun
SportsRatings Power Ratings
Success: #59 (150)
Combined: #56 (110)
Tempo-Free Ratings
Strength: #57 (111)Offense: #51 (107)
Defense: #56 (142)
Power Rating Special Analyses
2nd half of season: #53 (102)Injury correction: #56 (106)
Neutral court rating: #53 (102)
- Wins vs. tournament teams(1): Chattanooga+12
- Losses to tournament teams(2): =Temple-14, Morehead State-10
- Other losses(8): =Hofstra-1, @Bradley-13, @Florida Gulf Coast-3, @Jacksonville OT, Stetson-1, @Belmont-3, @Lipscomb-5, @Campbell-6
Key Info: East Tennessee State is a rare 16 seed that both beat another 16 seed (Chattanooga) and lost to one (play-in team Morehead State). But this is no ordinary 16 seed, as you can see by their power ratings, and the margins by which they've lost games—none higher than 13 (they're seven points a game away from being 30-3!) ETSU is at least as good as any 14 or 15 seed, which puts them in upset-potential area. And just look at the last five games on their chart. This team's coming into the tournament on a roll, and I can imagine a very interesting first half if Pitt comes in asleep.
Game Analysis: East Tennessee State is a nightmare 16 seed. A 1-seed is supposed to get an ultimate cupcake, almost a bye. And Pitt's certainly capable of thrashing the Buccaneers. But Pitt doesn't blow teams out often, and East Tennessee State hasn't been blown out all year, so I think a closer-than-expected game is in order. The computers don't see it that way:
% Chance to win
Strength: Pittsburgh 89%Tempo-Free: Pittsburgh 91%
Power rating spread
Strength: Pittsburgh by 16.9Tempo-Free: Pittsburgh by 18.3
Vegas Line:
The Tempo-free numbers give Pitt a bit more advantage, and Vegas expects a 20 point win. But I beg to differ. In East Tennessee State's last five games, they rate roughly equal to Marquette, and not much lower than the rating of Pitt's last 5 games. If they play like that on Friday, Pittsburgh had better be ready to have its hands full. That suggests a six point win for the Panthers—not out of the question in my opinion.
Bottom line: I'm not forecasting an upset here, but if there is one 16 vs. 1 game that makes the top seed's fans skip a heartbeat, it may be this one. East Tennessee State is great for a 16 seed, and they're on a roll recently. Pitt on the other hand might not come out blazing. I wouldn't be surprised to see a single-digit or low double-digit margin when all is said and done. Pitt by 9 points.
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